DbPhoenix

Just checking up on you. If you keep up with this, you'll eventually learn to let AMT do its job. If you're in a range, just ignore all the back and fill and LHs and HLs and whatever and just let it go. As long as you're in no danger of losing money, there's no downside to sitting on your hands unless you're scalping. As to whether you exit at the limit or hold on for a continuation, you'll have to look at your tactics for trading either. 1539: Apparently traders don't know what to do with the Fed Minutes (when you see a spike like that at 1400, you can assume it's some sort of news). Which may be why price isn't behaving as you'd expect. Let's see if we can hold up here.

0942: It is important to note how price behaved when bouncing off that 50% level. When one sees action like that, he can enter with a 1pt stop and enter sweat-free. 1051: I should point out these retracements. Note their depth and duration. They range from one bar to three, and the depth is relatively inconsequential. These tend to propel price higher than those which are deep and take forever to resolve themselves. This is not difficult to understand: if buyers are truly interested, they're not going to allow price to drift and stagnate. 1053: How price reacts to a level helps to determine/confirm that level's importance, e.g., 86. 1108: Trying to figure out why buyers do what they do when they do it can drive one crazy. Fortunately, it's not particularly relevant. Stuff for chat rooms. What matters is that if price can stay up here, it is more likely to go higher. That seems like a duh, but it helps to remember the obvious. 1111: Something else I've mentioned but I'll repeat: when the market stops you out, it's telling you something. Sometimes it's screaming at you. Pay attention. If you don't understand what it's telling you, don't be eager to jump back into the fray. 1121: For those who are confident in their trades, I should point out that that second rejection of 86 at 1050 sent a signal regarding the sentiment of buyers. If one had been comfortable with a stop, mental or otherwise, at the "danger point", which in this case would be around 87, he would have withstood the third test and still be in the trade. However, there is a third type of risk other than information risk and price risk, and that's opportunity risk, or time risk. Just how long does the trader want to babysit the trade, particularly if it's preventing him from taking advantage of something else? Something to consider. 1331: Apparently price has decided to convert the halfway level into a new range bottom. If this is the case, it's good news, as it puts us that much closer to the upper limit of the trend channel. 1430: Patience is a virtue. Here's the trade and everybody's gone 1433: Now we find out whether 76 is a new range bottom or not. 1445: Since everyone but you is gone, I'm going to take off. Hope your long works out well. You seem to have this down.

The distinction between trending and ranging requires the trader to make important decisions regarding what he wants and how he plans to go about getting it. This is made even more difficult by the fact that most traders don't even know that there is a distinction between trending and ranging and that a decision must be made. The Law of Supply and Demand is, of course, a law. Auction Market Theory is a theory. However, the longer one works with it, the more easily he begins to see that the most profitable means of trading a range is to just leave it alone and let it do what it does. Yes, one can get literal and insist that any movement up or down is a trend, and that the movements from one side of a range to the other are trends. And for an intellectual discussion, that might be good fodder. But the practical matter is that trends are limitless and ranges are not. This does not mean that trends do not pause, end, and reverse. But they do not have predetermined limits. If they did, the market would be several thousand points lower. For those who love to trade and can't stop doing it, the SLA at least provides some structure for making intrarange trades. But, at the end of the session, it is rare to find that all these in-and-outs amount to more than what one would have gained by doing nothing more than entering at one end and exiting at the other, if one has any gains at all. As for yesterday, it is important to note that if one had bought the DB at 0330 and ridden it to the test of the previous evening's 1130 high, he would have done quite well, even though at the time it was not yet a range. But then DBs and DTs send powerful messages, and if one zooms out on the hourly to a view that includes the10th, he can see just how important this DB was in the context of the past week's movement. Unfortunately, for the daytrader, this is largely irrelevant in terms of the account balance since few people in the States are trading at 0330. The point regarding trends and ranges, however, must be made, as well as the point regarding daytrading vs taking at least a somewhat longer view: one who had entered on the 11th wouldn't have had to concern himself with any of this.

0927: At this point, 77 takes on added importance. It's the last rejection, and 81 is the median. 0933: Make that 77-82. 0958: Don't know what the deal was with 71, but it doesn't represent an extreme, so I won't be trading off of it. 1001: I should point out that I'm having allergy issues, so I'm being extra careful. Don't trade off me. 1006: You'll notice that once price re-enters the range, there's a lot overlap, more extended MAEs, more hesitancy, pace and activity slows. Which is why I posted all that at the beginning of the thread. So do you want the trading to be easy or do you want it difficult? 1011: At this point, the lines at 86 and 88 are most important, given that 9 out of 10 of the underlying are showing strength. The ES as usual is being a drag. -------------76 is the median of the uber range. -------------I should point out to those who've never thought about it that there's a lot of hedging and arbitrage and whatnot in the ES and not so much in the NQ, largely because the ES is the proxy for 500 stocks and the NQ is the proxy for only a hundred. Plus the ES has a lot of financials. The NQ has little to none. However, the ES can act like a drag on the NQ just as it's doing now and was doing last Friday. Therefore, one can save himself from pushing too hard by at least keeping an eye on the ES quote, even if he doesn't have a chart up. -------------Disappointing to get all jazzed up and ready for the open and then get stuck in the mud. 1046: If the ES can't get past 92, we're not likely to go anywhere. 1105: I should point out here in reference to the posts opening this thread that if the range is wide, such as this one is, one may have the luxury of waiting for a ret if price rejects the upper limit. However, the better trade continues to be a reversal trade, as with all ranges. If it succeeds, then one is above all the retracement scrabbling. 1110: Note: when a lower limit is as soft as this one is, you'll have to come up with some alternate criterion for exiting, such as the last swing high. You may give up a few points by not exiting at the bottom tick, but you don't want to give it all back, either. 1123: 75 is the median of today's range, not much different from the level I mentioned earlier. 1125: A higher swing low, but one is either going to trade the range or he isn't. 1142: Zoom out to see a hinge forming. 1147: ES may be moving out. 1157: This hinge is taking too long. Be careful. 1209: ES testing its upper limit but NQ not. 1220: No go on the ES. Yet. 1250: Time to redraw the hinge, if one hasn't already done so. 1353: Regarding Gamera's notes, this is an excellent opportunity to revisit the decision to scalp or not scalp. Of course, if one is no good at it, that's that. But a day like this is a strong temptation to reconsider. Even so, it should be noted that whether one shorted at the double top at 87.5 or at what had been the "upper limit" at 86, either trade would have worked. And if neither had, how much is there to lose? But this is how a range is traded. Waiting for retracements is rarely satisfactory, not is it necessary, largely because all those who bought up to the limit are now going to exit, which is why price falls. I should also point out that this situation provides a good example of why using the SLA to trade ranges is not the best choice. By the time the DL is broken and a retracement made, the reversal entry is long gone. And if there is no retracement at all, there is no trade. 1410: Currently back at the apex of that hinge. 1635: While this seemingly interminable day has yet to resolve itself, it is a welcome change, if for no other reason than that it is an excellent opportunity for those who are experimenting with this and that to revisit their approaches to scalping vs trend-trading. The intraday trend-trader would have wound up today with bupkus. The scalper, on the other hand, might have done much better (I suggest you not consult journals to determine the possible profit pictures). But then scalpers miss out entirely on those 40 and 30 and even 10pt days. So, you pays your money and you takes your choice. What do you want? What kind of trader are you? What kind of trader do you want to be? A reminder, though, that if one had been trading an hourly interval as suggested above, he'd still be about 100pts ahead and today would not have mattered in the least. I don't "love" trading. What I like about it is the hours. And no boss. If it weren't this week's demos here, I probably would not have traded at all. If I have to trade more than the first 90-120m, I get real bored. And since I will most likely miss good trades when bored, there's no upside to sticking around. All that aside, there was really only one good trade in my book, and that was the reversal at the late double top. Ordinarily, if I weren't providing commentary (and it seems no one was here to read it other than Gamera and gears), I would have initiated what I call a SIFI trade, i.e., Set It and Forget It: enter the trade, wait for it to clear your entry, and if and when the trade begins to stall, just set a stop at your entry level and go do something else as sitting there and watching it is akin to watching paint dry, and you may just exit the trade unnecessarily simply because you don't want to look at it anymore. Sometimes price will plummet. Sometimes it will stop you out. But price really doesn't give a damn whether you're watching it or not; it's gonna do what it's gonna do and you don't necessarily have to participate, either actively or passively.

Yep, that's it. I'll post my own, tho, so I can do the EOD comparison in the same post.

If you have comments, make them here. BM is only a standby in case TL is down, as it was this morning. ET is for arguing.

0933: Looks like the ES is going to be a drag again as the NQ nears a penultimate ATH 1117: Even though the markets are closed, I thought there might be some futures activity in the NQ given that we are so near a penultimate ATH. And price broke through the upper limit of the range at 1053. While it's unlikely that this will go anywhere, it's good to know. 1145: DT and a break of the DL 1236: While I don't want to insult anybody, how could one NOT know how to trade this given the range that I posted above? Buy the break up through the upper limit, sell the break back down through the upper limit. If one didn't, he needs to think about WHY he didn't. 1253: While this is tons of fun, I see no point in doing it if nobody's watching it. Signing off. End of Market

And another place holder

plcholder fr nw......

For those however who absolutely must daytrade for whatever reason, the following pairs of Befores and Afters may be of help, especially if one pays particular attention to how the SLA and AMT work together (though not necessarily at the same time): BEFORE AFTER BEFORE AFTER BEFORE AFTER BEFORE AFTER BEFORE AFTER BEFORE AFTER BEFORE AFTER

The prep begins as all prep does, whether trading the SLA, AMT, or both: the weekly chart. Here I'm posting the weekly from the week of the 6th. It shows that, while we had been in a down-sloping trend channel in the daily, the previous three weeks had failed to make a lower low. This led me to postulate that we might be creating a range, which is what accounts for that tentative demand line at what looked to be a good spot (I mean three weeks is three weeks; seemed to me that something was up, no pun intended). In the meantime (meanwhile, back at the ranch), the dailies had been working their way higher. The first is from the day before. The second is of the morning of (pre-trading for the 13th). It this makes no sense, just go with the pictures. They're self-explanatory. And then the hourly, to see what traders were up to during the night: And then we focus on the territory for the upcoming session. A few minutes before the NY session begins, a range has formed between 54 and 59. But there's also a half-assed range from earlier in the night between 46 and 52 that may be important later (doesn't really matter what bar interval is used for this; 30m is too big, 1m is too small): And here's where the range-avoidance trader is faced with a lot of do-nothing time. Those who want to trade the SLA intraday are faced with a range from 54 to 59. Unless and until price breaks up past 59 or breaks down below 54, there is no trade unless one focuses on the AMT approach. If one insists on trading the SLA anyway, the losses can most likely be minimized, but the profits aren't going to amount to much, if only because by the time there's been a retracement after bouncing off the top or bottom, price is very nearly to the other side. Therefore, whatever profits might be made will be minimized as well. And there are all those commissions. In this case, the day that followed the "hard right edge" above was typical with regard to SLA results: a breakeven trade, a 3-point loss, a four-point gain, followed by a 2-point loss on a short and a 2-point loss on a long, which shuts down the SLA enterprise (two losses in a row, one short and one long, signalling chop). But then it was a range. Taking the AMT route meant considerably more and greater profits, including two 14-point moves by 1330. Let's revisit the 60m bar interval, the one used for the pdf. In this particular example, AMT is helpful in locating a range. Once price breaks out of it, the SLA takes over, sort of like a tag team:

If one wants to be a winning trader (and who doesn't), there are certain characteristics that one must either have or acquire. Fortunately, the SLA/AMT addresses all of them. 1. Losses. One must accept the fact that he is going to incur losses, no matter what bar interval he chooses. The task is not to avoid loss but rather contain it. The SLA/AMT is designed not to prevent loss but to keep losses minimal. 2. Preparation. Doing nothing before the beginning of the session in anticipation of exciting, new experiences pretty much guarantees that those experiences are not going to be pleasant. No, one cannot know for sure what is gong to happen, but he can know where he is with regard to whatever extremes are in his neighborhood, probably ranges. If he hasn't reviewed at least the weekly, daily, and hourly charts before his session, he has no one to blame but himself for what happens. If he has reviewed these charts, he will have a clearer notion of where and how far price may go, which may help him stay in a trade rather than jump out simply because price has gone against him a tick or two. 3. Planning. The SLA/AMT is its own plan. But if it isn't followed, if it's "tweaked", it can't be expected to function properly. Yes, there are minor decisions that must be made on the fly, but as one gains familiarity with price behavior, these decisions become matter of course, like slowing down at a Yield sign. Larger changes, however, will most likely require at least minimal testing. Changing something just because "it seems like a good idea" is not likely to yield the desired result. As for ignoring the rules altogether, well . . . 4. Discipline. Without discipline, whatever you do will result in failure. The SLA/AMT, however, forces you to be disciplined. If you keep fighting it, like hitting the snooze button over and over again, it will fold its arms and lean against the wall, waiting for you to pull yourself together. If you are a beginner but especially if you're damaged, it is essential that you follow the rules. Yes, you will have to decide what, for example, constitutes a "break" of a line: a tick, two ticks, a point or two. But not five. Not ten. Not half your account. And you must do this every single occurrence. Otherwise the SLA/AMT is no better than that trading plan you got in your mailbox from Winning Traders 'R Us. 5. Patience. The best trades are found at the extremes, either of range limits or channel limits. If you're nowhere near one or the other, you have nothing to do but watch (and don't try to be clever and draw teeny-tiny ranges and teeny-tiny channels in teeny-tiny bar intervals to rationalize and justify your lack of patience). Learn to use inaction as a weapon against your tendencies toward impulsive action, e.g., "revenge trading", or fear of "missing it". Don't get irritated or angered or feel like a martyr when waiting. Regard patience as a central pillar of your strategy. Don't assign it a secondary or lesser role. Don't be impatient about patience. Your brain is telling you to play patiently while your emotions are saying, "What's taking so long?" These two must be in alignment. Begin by being patient, but don't forget to stay patient. The important thing is not who possesses the control and discipline at the start of the game, but who possesses it at the middle, the end, and all points throughout. (from Zen and the Art of Poker) 6. Record-keeping. It is essential to collect and maintain records of your end-of-session reviews (you are of course doing end-of-session chart reviews). If you do not keep track of what you did right and what you did not-right and the results of each, you won't be looking at early retirement any time soon. Avoid, however, the I'm A Useless Sack drama. Focus instead on what you saw correctly, what you missed that you should not have missed, what you missed that the greatest trader on the planet would have missed, which trades were made according to plan and which weren't (along with why, so that you can avoid the same behavior in future). Review Appendix E.

. . . . The SLA/AMT is, again, a primer. Training wheels for the beginner. Rehab for the damaged trader. The beginner will learn discipline, patience, all the good stuff in the Afterword. The damaged trader will, one hopes, find his way back to a disciplined and professional approach, assuming he was ever disciplined and professional in the first place. If he wasn't, then it may provide him with a reset and reboot. The damaged trader will find it vastly more difficult to start over. But it can be done. Once one has worked with the SLA/AMT for a few months, or even a few weeks, he may find that he is able to pick up on behavioral nuances easier and faster than he thought. Why this is, I don't know. But some clearly go with this faster than others. If and when he is able to do this, he may find that the AMT half provides a better fit, and the SLA will become secondary. Or he may find that AMT is a continuing mystery and rely instead on the SLA to keep him out of the weeds and on the straight-and-narrow. But choosing over the other is an error. The SLA and AMT are cojoined, and if one emphasizes one at the expense of the other, he'll be missing out on a considerable number of profitable trades. I used hourly bars in the pdf (see the Stickies) because they are far easier to trade than anything less and easier even than daily bars, though if the trader prefers daily bars, fine, then go with that. Many traders, however, simply cannot hold overnight, much less for days or weeks. They are incapable of doing so without making serious psychological adjustments. They will apply – or try to – this approach to intraday trades, or at least to trading opportunities that occur during one's waking hours (the NQ trades 24/5). But the SLA is a trend-following approach, and the trader who wants to "daytrade" will generally find far fewer trends intraday than he will trading interday. Many days in fact are entirely range-bound and never trend at all. And the trader who doesn't particularly like trading reversals is going to find himself between a rock and a hard place since reversals are the only options in ranges (though one might find all sorts of seemingly-profitable retracements in hindsight, there is simply no time for retracements in ranges; by the time the retracement occurs, one is usually almost to the other side of the range). Which, again, is why I've chosen to illustrate the pdf with hourly bars: the trends last far longer. As I've said more than once, there are two states available to price: trending and ranging. Trends are born of ranges. Price reverses from one side of the range to the other until it eventually and inevitably breaks out of it and begins trending. The trader who wants to make the most of his session, then, will learn both since, as I said above, they are cojoined. There will be times when price launches itself into a trend right out of the gate, but more often it will range for at least a little while – sometimes a great while -- before price exits the range and takes off to greener pastures. So those who focus on the SLA without incorporating AMT into their trading aren't going to have a whole lot to do.

Forex aside, I suggest that rather than study losing traders and/or winning traders that beginners and struggling traders study the market.

I've never used them partly because they "scrunch" the data and partly because I've never seen any advantage to them. But then whatever advantage may or may not exist will depend on what you're trying to do with them. I'd have to see examples, keeping in mind that these "lines" of whatever sort do not provide support nor resistance.

They haven't been discontinued. Most have been abandoned. A couple have moved to ET. Those who find success with the SLA stop posting (why should they continue?). Those who don't find success with it stop posting because they don't find success with it and are exploring alternatives.

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The purpose of these charts -- in case it isn't obvious -- is to show what one can achieve simply by following the rules. If one is wondering why these trades were taken where they were, I suggest that he study the rules, then determine why and how each of these trades were made where and when they were made. If one doesn't understand the rules, much less how to apply them, he can't very well be expected to follow them.

Regarding today's high: Elite Trader - View Single Post - Ghost of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

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The third chart was not drawn ahead of time but later during the downdraft to determine where price might bounce, therefore it's last, not first.

The SLA is the Straight Line Approach. AMT refers to Auction Market Theory. See this pdf.

3rd chart switches to a 5m interval for the remainder of the day.

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