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DbPhoenix
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix
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This isn't the easiest time to be learning this, much less applying it. For the last two months we have essentially been in a range from 1650 to 1750. Whether coincidentally or consequently, the volume is fairly evenly dispersed, particularly between 1660 and 1715. This is one reason why the most successful trades this week have been off 50 and 60. Anything inbetween has been characterized by hesitation, backing and filling, congestion. And above 1715, there's really nothing of interest until 1740. One can, of course, plot the microvolume patterns over much smaller timeframes, but the smaller they are, the more easily they are penetrated. Therefore, one has to look at swing points for clues as to where traders are finding support and resistance, or are at least finding interesting trading points. And that's where we are now. Or at least where I am. All of which is why, as usual, the best trades have been at the extremes. However, if one is trading intraday and he's dealing with a very wide range, is he to sit and wait until the opposite side of the range is reached so that he can enter a short? That could take days. What is he to do in the meantime? Sit? Granted that may be the best course, but a suggestion that will most likely fall on deaf ears. A perhaps more attractive option is to go ahead and look for what opportunities present themselves and practice a little discipline in trade management so that whatever damage there may be is minimized. This is also a good time to practice scalping, if one has been looking for such an opportunity. Better yet is to use this as an opportunity to study and observe and avoid allowing whatever bad habits one has to become even more entrenched. It is important not to take one's eye off the macro. The range from 1650 to 1750 has been a subject for some time now, with a midpoint of 1700. That midpoint was a turning point yesterday, within a tick. However, since we've spent so much time between 1710 and 1660, there's no easily definable "extreme" in terms of volume or swing points. And that makes for a "challenging" trading environment. Quite often one can get clues as to what will be the important S/R levels for the day from the premkt activity, particularly the last hour. But not always (as with yesterday at 84, which looked to be setting itself up as significant but which wound up being only the midpoint between the opening range from 87 to 81, and 80, as I suggested before the open, became the long trade). Perhaps MP software might provide better clues regarding these very short timeframes. Unfortunately, the MP Forum is one of the least busy, even though it has the most potential to be helpful with regard to these issues.
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Don't overlook the potential importance of 80. A time chart or CVB chart may make this clearer.
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58 to 77.5. Not too shabby
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If you like ..........
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I don't know where you think being unorganised automatically makes you lack discipline. If i choose to live life in an unorganised manner doesnt mean I can't be disciplined. I don't have a structure to how I eat my meals each day, however I'm disciplined enough to eat healthy when it strikes me. Im not organised at all and yet I've been trading for a number of years now and I"m doing very well at it. Where did I say anything about organization and discipline?
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However, again, if one can't simtrade successfully, it's a sure bet that he won't be able to trade successfully for real. If one is having psychological issues, trading without a consistently profitable strategy is not likely to resolve them. As for giving "the illusion of actually trading when it's quite the opposite", one has to be particularly careful of those who continually challenge others to provide evidence of trading, much less trading success, while failing to provide evidence of their own.
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What trading plan had you written down in advance of the trading day? Whether or not it was a "terrible decision" depends in large part on where you would have entered a short and why, where you would have placed your protective stop and why, how many times you would have tried to reenter and under what conditions after being stopped out and why, how you would have managed the trade if the trade had gone your way after your entry and so on. If you had not asked and answered at least these questions in advance, then a decision to stay out was the best one you could have made. Review the answer I gave to your last post in the Stops thread and apply it to this situation. Since you've been "burned many times" and "get stopped out a lot", do you understand what traders are doing at each of these points? Or do you find yourself playing Follow The Bouncing Ball? Again, have you written out a trading plan in advance of the trading day? If you have not already done so, I suggest you begin with the first post in the foresight thread and study the linked material. These posts and charts will explain how to determine reversals, where to look for them, how to manage them. In the meantime, I strongly suggest that you stop trading and remain in observe and study mode until you've put together a consistently profitable strategy.
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If you have a consistently profitable trading strategy, there's no reason why there ought to be an "emotional side" in the first place. And if you can't show consistent profits in sim, you sure won't be able to do so for real. If you do it incorrectly, there's no point in doing it at all. Those who don't take it seriously will find it to be, and quite rightly, a waste of time. Trading live without having done the proper preparation can also make you "think or sink".
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Actually, trumpet section, since this level has been in play, and noted, since August. It's worth remembering too that 1700 represents the midpoint of this whole range, thus the activity around that level the past three days, particularly Thursday. This may also account for what appears to be an increasing number of hinges ("apparent", because I haven't been counting). That price held above 1740 for two weeks before seriously penetrating this range and then "sought" the opposite side at 1660 may also explain what appears to be an increase in WTFs, particularly after lackluster morning sessions. But, in the meantime, when traders spend a great deal of time testing a level, as they did yesterday, this makes for tight ranges, perhaps multiple stopouts (depending on tactics), and more than a little frustration. These can lead, as we have seen, to breaks to one side or the other (the concept behind the springboard). My suggestion, then, at least to those who don't suffer from attention deficit disorder, is to hang around a little longer and keep an eye out for WTFs, as with yesterday, shortly after 1100, when price dropped below 1700 (finally). There may be more to come, of course. If price continues to drop, there are multiple trading ranges to bounce off of and work thru, like falling down stairs. Or bulls may push us back into the channel and resume the trend. Either way, it is important not to lose sight of the larger timeframe (the distance between the August low and the June high is especially appetizing, though there is one hell of a lot of support at the 1650 level).
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Looking for Signal Software That Goes with the Trend
DbPhoenix replied to gcgecko's topic in Trading Products and Services
Given your post history, you appear to have been bouncing around among various approaches, software programs, gurus, and so forth. Rather than rely on software or gurus, have you considered doing it yourself? If you can tell the difference between up and down, there's really no reason why you can't brush everything else aside and apply your own intelligence to what you see in front of you. And you won't have to spend anything to do it. -
My point was not that these various levels of resistance did not act as resistance but that none of them meant the top to the overall trend. You'll note from your earlier chart that while the first swing high in each of these pairs may have presented resistance within each subsequent range within the overall trend, none of them presented an insurmountable obstacle to that trend. Price may work its way back to the bottom of this particular trading range (from 41-43), and doing so will mean breaking the trendline. But that doesn't make it a trend reversal (note that price broke the trendline in May and again in July [Edit: make that June]).
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And if you're not willing to accept the risk and you force yourself to take it anyway, you'll feel far worse about it if it doesn't work out. I understand how difficult this is. Whenever you get stopped out, train yourself to ask "What is the market telling me?" rather than zero in on your failure. The market may be telling you that it wants to go in the opposite direction. Or it may be telling you that you were right but you were too early. Or it may be telling you that it's entering a period of chop (or a hinge). If you feel pressured by time to make a decision without having fully considered it, take the loss and switch to sim. If you lose again, at least you won't have so much emotional fallout to deal with. And if you analyze correctly and make the right decision, you'll then have more confidence to take the trade the next time it comes up. And it will come up. Granted you may kick yourself for not taking what turns out to be a winning trade, but taking the trade is not the point. Overcoming the hurdle that prevented you from taking the trade in the first place is a more immediate concern.
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I can understand why you'd short 90 if you didn't see 88 as support. Part of this depends on how one enters. For me, even if I'd wanted to short 90, there's no entry, so it just never came up. And when 88 held, that was that. As for your drawing of the hinge, that's one way of doing it. Either way, price has to break past 92. Once one has worked with a few dozen or hundred of these hinges, the lines don't matter so much. What matters are the lower highs and higher lows and the general decline in volume. One might even be able to play them using range charts or CVBs. But if one is new to these, or if one isn't particularly new to them but still has trouble seeing them, sticking to the traditional means of plotting them may be best for the time being. It's also important, and difficult for many, not to disengage after a failed trade and stop observing and analyzing. If, for example, in this case, one tried to short 90 and the trade didn't work out, he'd have to set that aside almost immediately in order to remain engaged, see the hinge, and wait for the opportunity to play it. If he were able to be objective about the aborted short, he would also be more likely to consider the other alternative, that if the short didn't work, price would be that much more likely to move to the upside.
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Mine doesn't start until I saw the lower high at 0952. When I then saw the higher low at 0954, I drew the hinge, with a projected apex at 91. Price then left the hinge at 1001. Is your chart CVB?
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Both 88 and 90 were legit, but unless one is short, dropping the extra couple of points is not a big deal. What is more important is how price behaves at the lower level, in this case 88. But if one didn't take it, there was a hinge which broke at 1000. Again, once one sees higher lows and lower highs, that's the first thing that should pop into his head.
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If 24 is support, you're buying the first bounce rather than waiting for the test, if any. This is the most aggressive entry.
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A type of springboard.
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Wrong thread. The post is here.
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Since the entry stop is placed below this "springboard", it won't be triggered if price doesn't move quickly in that direction. And, yes, the protective stop can be very tight. Here you can see this hesitation, a retracement in time rather than price. You can also see the increase in activity. There are other examples in the TICKQ thread. Incidentally, 60 is the midpoint of the August to October leg of the rally, the August swing high, and the October swing low. .
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There were a number of interesting PA features in today's chart. The supports at 1688 and 1708 have been mentioned, as were the position of the trendline and the resistance level at 1717, but nothing afterward. Trading in foresight entails locating whatever trading ranges and support and resistance levels are most likely to apply to the upcoming trading day, but foresight is also necessary during the trading day. The most obvious aspect has to do with price's behavior at S&R. But one must also be sensitive to climactic volume, lower highs and higher lows, how and where price is finding equilibrium, and hinges. Here, for example, after testing 17, price dropped back to support at 08. It attempted to rally, but settled back down to 08. At the end of what might appear to most traders as drift but what was in fact a hinge, price dropped on a WTF, providing an entry just below 05 (if one were nodding off, the WTF acts as a wakeup call). This is not to say that one should stay on edge throughout his trading day. But neither should he assume that just because price appears to be drifting it is in fact going nowhere, and relax to the point where he misses the opportunities that are provided. Perhaps a list of what to be on the lookout for may be helpful. In any case, staying alert will help translate :crap:into .
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And also the bottom of the trendline.
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Sorry for the redundancy. Didn't see your followup post.
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Doesn't matter. Note also that price subsequently found S at 1708 after the open, which I marked with a dashed blue line on my chart. You and wj have it as well. It all works.