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DbPhoenix
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix
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Whether or not the OP is a shill is not necessarily the point. This stuff comes up regularly, and those who are ready to whip out their credit cards ought to review the following post: A follow-on post may be found here.
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Also note that five of nine sectors have made new highs.
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A couple of charts . . .
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Gotcha. Thanks for the clarification.
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Welcome back, Head. When you say that if price is accepted outside of the current range then you will look for a trade from 79-81, how will you define "accepted"? Do you mean that if it finds support between 68.5 and 72.25 that you will short at 79-81 (or the reverse if it finds resistance at 89.5 to 93.5)? Granted it may be a little late for this discussion at this point.
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You may want to look at 72 for a long as well.
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To Everyone Who's Interested In Learning This and Nobody In Particular: "Accountability" is not about here's a trade I took this morning (or last night or yesterday) and posting the (alleged) results of these (alleged) trades, whether one does it every day or only occasionally, whether the results were positive or negative, regardless of how "good" the trade "felt" or "looked" or "seemed". True accountability is about posting a plan for the coming trading session, whenever that might be, trading that plan, then reviewing the results according to whether or not the plan was followed and, if the plan was followed and the results were negative, if the plan needs to be revised. If one doesn't do this, he can expect to have to deal with impatience, overtrading, revenge trading, and a variety of other "emotional issues" that plague traders who have no trading plan (preferably one that is consistently profitable). The trading plan can be as simple as (1) here's resistance and here's what I plan to do if and when we get there and (2) here's support and here's what I plan to do if and when we get there. The only reason not to follow the plan is, if and when price reaches one of these levels, the trader is not ready to assume the risk. If he is not ready to assume the risk, then the trade is off, and he can later determine why he was not ready to take the risk. To ignore this process and instead wait for the trading session to begin so that one can determine how it all feels and seems and looks accomplishes nothing but to extend and flatten the learning curve so that one can spend (waste?) years learning what should otherwise take months.
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Don't forget that tomorrow is Veterans' Day. You may just want to take the day off.
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Given the behavior of price in the 50 area yesterday, that may instead be your midpoint. And it's more recent. Something to watch.
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I don't see any particular resistance yesterday, so price moving easily through what was thought to be resistance may mean simply that what was thought to be resistance wasn't. In any case, what matters more is whether or not you see a setup and, if so, how you play it. The "trend day" part is just a bonus, something that is determined in hindsight. At the time, you're focused on demand lines and swings. If a reaction at anticipated resistance is dramatic, that suggests first that you were right about the location of resistance. But that doesn't mean that it's all over and that you aren't going to continue the upmove. All it means is that you've encountered resistance. You may yet have a trend day or you may not. Your immediate concern is how to manage what's happening in real time. If volume is low and price is rising, then buyers are facing little resistance toward the move in its entirety. If volume is higher, sellers are more active and buyers are required to contribute more effort to move price upward. If they can't, this is only partly due to sellers' activities; it is also due to buyers' lack of strength. In your example from yesterday, sellers are far more active before price makes a top. Price falls because buyers are exhausted, and they don't come back in force until 1030.
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For posterity: Here price finds resistance at 37, breaks away from it, then retraces to 37. Later it pulls away from 40, then retraces to 41, where it makes a double bottom. The only question remaining is how to enter.
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This was one of those occasions when the TQ sent the wrong message, or at least was misdirective. There was a clear double bottom at 41 on the tick chart, and though confirmation is always a plus, sometimes you have to forego a divergence which may never come and go with the price behavior itself. As for shorting 50, that was legit, but after refusing twice to drop, that was pretty much that.
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33 is good enough
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Having mentioned the "double tops" in XLB and I and the Transports, I should point out that they have all bounced nicely off support. Not to bias anyone, but barring sudden failure, we should see tests of the highs.
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Planning it all out in advance certainly reduces/eliminates whatever stress one might otherwise feel. Holding above the midpoint of the last decline (15+/-) is proving to be a challenge. But, oddly enough, price appears to be finding support here.
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Your post beat mine by a few seconds . Well played. Congrats.
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Well, we dropped back to 15 and somewhat below to support at 10 for our running start all the way to 20 and 25 to resistance at 30. And all in less than half an hour.
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It may also be worth pointing out that we are edging past the midpoint of the decline from 1780 and we are very near re-entering the channel. This may generate some nervousness among all those who've regarded this as a top.
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For wj, as promised (and firewalker too):
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There's a chart here that nicely illustrates what I've been trying to say today regarding price and the mess in volume. There is by now no doubt that 20 is R. But even if price moves ahead overnite, there's still that hurdle at 25 to jump. OTOH, if we drop to 15 and get a running start..... Interesting days, interesting days.
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Since you have been trading for over twenty years, you know the pitfalls. If our chatroom setup has the bells and whistles you require, there's no particular need to go offsite. You can set up your own room here that's password-protected and screen those who'd like to participate. You can also set up a private group if you want to post charts that are related to chatroom discussions (you can also upload images to the room) and/or carry on discussions after the trading day.
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Great minds, etc etc.
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Extending an answer I gave in chat today in response to a question about VAP, the top of this particular range, according to price, is around 30. According to volume, it's around 25. So the answer to either/or is to use both and see what traders do when they reach each level. Clearly they demonstrated an inability to push price past 25 today. This doesn't mean that volume "wins" so much as that one has to be flexible as to how far away from the midpoint of the range one thinks traders are going to be able to get, or, if one wants to get into statistics, how many standard deviations away from the midpoint. And one can't know that until the trading takes place in real time.
