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DbPhoenix
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix
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I bought a house and large lot last fall, both of which required/require/will require extensive renovation. Daytrading dropped to the bottom of my list of priorities. So I've rediscovered the pleasures of EOD trading. No idea what I'll do when I have more time. Make that "found". Depends on whether the day is trending or range-bound. If trending, generally one. If range-bound, maybe two. Often, none. I'm tempted to say no, but who am I to make those decisions. Whether or not a trader is going to be successful during this period depends as much on the kind of person he is as the strategy and tactics he employs. If you spend sufficient time in front of your screen, you'll quickly see when the market begins treading water. That's most often when amateur traders begin looking for trades that aren't there. You're welcome. Db
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Re-read the course. And read Section 7 as often and as many times as it takes. Db
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As soon as you have a lower high and a higher low, you have the beginnings of a possible hinge. Db
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I don't want to be directive . It's your life. But I do want to suggest alternatives. Trading EOD, for example has certain advantages, not the least of which is the ability to pyramid, if you're trending. And the sleeping issue isn't the problem it often is with stocks, though others may disagree. Instruments are always in a state of trend or no-trend, or trading range. Each of these has its pluses and its minuses in terms of trading opportunities. Some learn how to do both. Some are better at one or the other. If you find that you're particularly good at playing off support or resistance, then look for trading ranges and relax and do something else when there aren't any. Ditto with trading the trend. If you haven't looked at the Trend thread, that may give you something to chew on. The reality of daytrading is very different from everybody's expectations. However, few people prepare for it. If you understand that the preparation can take a great deal of time, you may find success before you become discouraged. But even if you don't find success, at least you won't be broke. Understand also that you must have or acquire certain personal attributes, such as patience, tolerance, calm. These may come with a thoroughly-tested strategy, but it helps if you possess these qualities to start with. Db
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May have been the chatroom. It's been a while. You don't. Or at least I never assumed anything. Whether his comment was anecdotal or he really tested it, I don't know. Seems reasonable, but the market's always full of surprises. In any case, if you plan for both, you needn't care. What's most important is not to be surprised and to plan ahead for all contingencies. Then emotions are less likely to screw you up. It's important, though, to pair your entry stop with its cover stop. Otherwise, the program may think your cover stop is actually an entry stop and that can really ruin your day. If your program doesn't let you pair a cover stop with an entry stop so that they're linked at the time you transmit the order, get another program. The WTF. The hinge can occur in any interval. And yes, it did. Db Edit: These questions of yours rattled something loose and it eventually rose to the top. If you're really interested, there's a lengthy analysis of a hinge beginning here, though you may already have stumbled across it. This guy was sharp, but so were the others who participated. This was a particular kind of hinge and easier than usual to anticipate the outcome, but you never know. The observant trader can pick up all sorts of signals. It is long. Almost 30 posts. But it's thorough. Yep, it's thorough. Db
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I haven't looked thru the entire thread again and probably won't, but as I remember there's a lot of discussion of this there. But, generally, set the buystop is set above the supply line with the cover stop below the demand line and the sellstop is set below the demand line with the cover stop above the supply line. But one can vary this to whatever works and is comfortable. Preferably both. If the initial entry is missed, then the retracement is taken, unless the breakout/breakdown fails and you slip back into the hinge, in which case you're not in the trade at all. If the breakout/down is good and there is no retracement, look for the WTF?!?. You will, however, have to use a very short interval, probably 1m or less. These don't even show up on the 5m. So while everybody else is avoiding the “noise”, you're following price and picking up on that little hesitation. Db
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Why? Again, why? Not the best choice for a bread-and-butter setup. The Hinge is the cookie in the lunch box. You won't see it that often. Go for the sandwich. Maybe. Whether the trade works or not will depend in large part on how it's managed. Watching price move is always a good way to start. As for developing your edge, don't be concerned about that at the beginning. By determining so early what you're going to trade, when you're going to trade, what you're going to look for, etc., you've already cut yourself off from a number of options, which is why I asked my first two questions. Unless you have really good reasons for wanting to be a daytrader and trade the NQs, I suggest you rethink all of that. Trading futures intraday may seem like where all the action is, but it's also where a lot of people get chewed up. Db
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Not exactly. If there's only one outlier (the arrow), I just ignore it. The point is to track the swing highs as closely as possible. I've also circled what I call my WTF?!? entry. It's the only thing that works if there's no retracement. Db
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Your supply line is incorrect. If you rotate it downward, you're already out of the hinge. A potential buystop would have been at or around 2706. See that thrust? And the accompanying volume? Db
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Volume petered out awfully early, so it may just dribble out the end and drift sideways, but it's best to be prepared for an excursion both to the upside and downside: where to buy, where to stop, etc. Also, I'd rotate my supply line downward so that it more closely tracks the swing highs. Db
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Yes. Concurrent with a decline in volume. Db
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Do you have a tested and profitable trading plan for all of this? Db
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What you read and when you read it is entirely a function of what you need and when you need it. If you force yourself to slog through something that seems irrelevant to what you're doing, you're not going to remember it anyway. But if and when you determine that you do need it, it's there, and you'll then be far more likely to understand and remember it. As for the threads, I'd start with the Trading in Foresight thread, since that pulls everything together (exc. P&F), then work your way backwards to those threads that elaborate on whatever it is you're stuck on. Is there anything else? At a bare minimum, Livermore. There are also the books on my reading list, but they may not stick until you're ready for them. The Nature of Risk would probably do you more good than anything, esp in futures. Chatroom? No, not that I know of or could recommend. The Day Trading the E mini Futures thread appears to be run like a chatroom. It's not Wyckoff, but joshtrader hangs out there, so at least there'd be somebody who understands what you're talking about. You may even provide some added insight (note the posts made when the ES bounced a couple of days ago). Db
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This was posted in the wrong thread, and the "move" function isn't working for me. Sorry, Niko. Db
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Four years ago, I accidentally pegged the peak of the bear market rally (see the post several back dated 5/26/08). Since so many traders are experiencing deja vu here, let's look at where we are. This may help answer some questions about what to do. If anything. First task? Determine the trend of the market. Db
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Yes and no. Price on Tuesday filled the gap created the day before. Then it tested that level twice yesterday and couldn't close the deal. So sellers, being in charge, drove price lower. In any case, this isn't a great hinge. If price falls out before it reaches the apex, the move can be pretty lackadaisical. Also, note here that price found support at the last swing low (two weeks ago). Therefore, while you may have had a hinge working, it morphed itself into an ordinary sideways drift. At least until today. You may be saved by that congestion between 63 and 65 at the beginning of your chart. If not, 60 looks like excellent support. Is this the group you were interested in? Were you able to find which group this stock is part of at Bigcharts? Db
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It is good, esp atto's contributions. The threads got only two votes. Give it a ranking and maybe it'll attract more attention (just click Rating in the toolbar). Db
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As I wrote in the first Stickie: Back during the Gold Rush, it was said that the only people making any money out of all the prospecting activity were those who were selling the picks and shovels. One could make the same observation with regard to trading, only in this case, it's those who are selling the newsletters and dvds and tapes and courses and software and datafeeds and books (hello!) and seminars and T-shirts and coffee mugs and mouse pads. Anyone whose bullshit detector is in reasonably good working order should be clanging like a fire engine. Yes, sometimes things need to be explained, and it's often helpful to be able to discuss certain points with someone who's engaged in the same struggle (which is what forums, to at least some extent, are supposed to be about, as opposed to hens in the henhouse, waiting for the foxes to arrive). But the density of the swarm of people with something to sell to beginner traders is appalling. Wyckoff didn't learn how the markets work by watching a dvd or playing with software or even by studying charts. He did it by watching price move. And the beginner who tries to get around this by spending loads of money on some proxy or other -- like software -- is wasting his time and his money. Anyone who believes he can get away with avoiding the work is just fooling himself, no matter how much he's spent. One has to do the work. And if you're not already sorry you asked, here's a post you may want to look at: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/3866-wyckoff-resources-3.html#post67112 Db
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I set up this thread to provide a home for all the posts relating to VSA and SMI. I thought it would be easier to do that than to keep reminding people that the focus of the Forum is Wyckoff's original course, not any of the variations or adaptations of it. But it's not working out. The typical visitor couldn't care less about and probably isn't even aware of all the “takes” on Wyckoff that are floating around out there. All he knows is that he's confused by all the buzzwords that are not part of the original course and on which the gurus and pundits often disagree. He reads about springing and jumping creeks and breaking ice but can't find any mention of any of that in the original course. That's because none of it is there. Therefore, we're going back to what the Forum was focused on in the first place: Wyckoff's original course. All questions relating to VSA and the SMI course will be deleted and their posters asked to repost them in the appropriate forums (VSA has had one for years; an SMI thread can be initiated anywhere, except here). Keep in mind that all of this is free. You don't have to subscribe to any newsletters or buy any “modules” or dvds or transcripts or tapes. You don't need to subscribe to or purchase any software or datafeed or plugin. You don't have to buy any course or course materials. All you need to do is read the material that's here and study it. And it won't cost you a dime. Db
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Sorry, but this has none of the characteristics of a hinge, at least as described by Wyckoff. You're also suggesting a "perfect time to buy" that's only a few points from the top of the range. I suggest again that those who are interested in this look at the Hinges thread. Db
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In Section 22, W says that the leaders are those "which are used by large interests to influence the market toward higher or lower levels". The biggies. Major companies. That's why I offered the five biggest in each of the markets. You could, if you like, use only those which show up in two or more lists. These would be ibm, cvx, xom, aapl, msft. If you want to select the major players in a particular group rather than in the market as a whole, then market cap is probably the best way to go since it is these stocks which will be used to exert the greatest influence on the group and the market. For example, if you're looking at Oil & Gas, go through the Bigcharts procedure I outlined, select Oil & Gas, then Industry Analyzer, sort by Market Cap, and pick your timeframe. In this case, you'd get Exxon, PetroChina, Royal Dutch, Chevron, and Petroleo Brasileiro. Db
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Really! Good for you (the trading stocks EOD part). Sierra Charts allows you to combine charts in order to come up with a composite and I'm sure other programs do as well. But it's still a pain in the ass. If you can look at five charts and more or less combine them in your head, you're way ahead in terms of time and money. And it's unlikely that they're going to be wildly different anyway. As for creating groups, the most heavily-weighted stocks in the DJ are IBM, CVX, MCD, CAT, and XOM. In the S&P, they are XOM, AAPL, CVX, IBM, and MSFT. In the NDX, they are AAPL, QCOM, GOOG, MSFT, and ORCL. At Stockcharts, you can display multiple charts in one view. Click Free Charts, then CandleGlance Groups. You can also go to Bigcharts, click the Industries tab (next to the Home tab), and wallow in the nine sectors, the subsectors, the groups, the subgroups, the sub-subgroups, with enough charts to make you wet (the Home Construction chart under Household Goods under Personal and Household Goods under Consumer Goods -- the 4th sector -- is what told me to sell my house in Phoenix two months before the peak). Selecting the "leaders" based on relative strength doesn't make a great deal of sense. If one uses that criterion, his Wave will always show strength, and may end up giving a distorted view of the state of the market. "Leader" means important. High quality. And if the high quality stocks are in the doldrums and the low quality stocks are leading the market averages, you have a problem. And incidentally, you may want to look at the original course rather than the SMI course for further guidance. I really can't help you with the SMI course since it's not the subject of this Forum. Db
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Years ago, I used to construct a Wave. But as the charts of groups and subgroups and sub-subgroups and specialty indices and ETFs etc etc began to proliferate, there didn't seem to be much point. I did try to go through the Wyckoff sequence of assessing the market then assessing the groups when the Forum first began, but the group thing got pretty much a big yawn because nearly everybody was into intraday trading and futures, then forex. So I stopped doing it. But for anybody trading stocks, it is essential to go through that sequence. As for the Wave itself, if it doesn't tell you anything that reviewing the group charts doesn't, why bother? As for the P&F, I know exactly where I want to enter and I know exactly what I want to see. I also know exactly what to look for to tell me to get out (or at least begin doing so). So the P&F is just superfluous. I have no targets. I ride the train as long as it continues to go in the direction I want to go. Which is also why I don't bother with risk:reward ratios. For me they're a waste of time since there's no way of knowing what reward to expect, which is, one might say, one of the functions of doing P&F. The difficulty there is that having a target of one sort or another, one might be encouraged to stay in when he should be long gone. But no one should mimic me. If one finds value in the Wave, by all means continue constructing it. Yourself. For free. Ditto with P&F. If one loves it, why shouldn't he do it? Db
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I personally don't use them because I don't need them. But as I've tried to make clear whenever the subject comes up, this is nothing against P&F. Some people can't live without it, and that's fine. As for SMI being the Wyckoff Bible, yes, some people believe that. This forum, however, is about the original course, not any adaptations of it. As for the five steps and the buying and selling tests, it's all in the original course. Just do a search. Few people discuss them in forums because few people actually read the course, much less study it. Db
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Try, but don't be disappointed if you don't succeed. What you view as a possible springboard could be a preparation for an advance or a preparation for a decline or a bunch of traders just sitting around waiting for news, and you're attempting to trade a very news-driven market. Best of luck. Db
