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DbPhoenix
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix
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Even though Gringo's no longer here, I can't help providing closure to his last post (see two up). Db
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The Forum focuses on the original course (see the Stickies). The process of determining what to trade and when to trade it is detailed therein. Db
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The Wyckoff trader, however, doesn't seek to influence the market. He seeks to determine where it is and where it is most likely to go, then hitches a ride to take him there. For him this will best be done by following price, not a summary of it. It's good that the larger bar intervals work for you. But they're not the MO for a Wyckoff trader. Db Addendum: Figuratively speaking, the small trader should imagine himself as a hitch-hiker in the market. For the ordinary hitch-hiker, someone else supplies the car, chauffeur, oil and gas. When he thinks the car is about to go in his direction, he jumps aboard and rides as far as he thinks the car will go. When he notices the machine has been stopped by a red light, or is about to turn a corner and go in some other direction, or that the car is running out of gas, or the brakes failing to work properly, he steps off and figures he has secured about as long a ride as he may expect. All he has supplied in this transaction is a modest commission and whatever brains were necessary to observe and recognize the opportunity when to get on and off. RDW
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True. This is largely due to the different worlds that traders occupy. The 5m people aren't even aware of the RET on the tick chart. So they wait for a RET on the 5m chart. Ditto with the 15m people. And the 30m people may not see any RET at all until the day's nearly over The problem here from a Wyckoff POV is that the longer one waits to enter after one should have entered, the further he is from his stop. This may decrease the information risk, but it increases the price risk to a level that may be so intolerable to the trader that he doesn't take the trade at all. If one is sure of what he's looking for and is reasonably sure that he's seen it if and when it occurs, there's just no reason to wait. If he takes it and he's wrong, his stop is so close that his price risk is minimal. Db
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Given the age of this thread, I did not expect much response, if any, but I should point out that the thread is part of the Wyckoff Forum. In that context, there is no such thing as "noise", and the preferred chart is that which is as close to the tape as possible. A tick chart, if available. Granted a tick chart takes some getting used to, but it beats the hell out of stating at a T&S display for hours on end. Maintaining the broader view is of course essential. Back in the day, this was done by using a form of P&F. Today we have the luxury of multiple bar intervals, switchable in an instant. But focusing on the bars, and assigning meanings to them that they don't have, puts the cart before the horse. The message is in the tick, and in its continuous movement that results from imbalances between demand and supply. Some may build systems on 5m bars or 13m candles or 967tick bars or whatever, and they may enjoy great success with all that. But none of it has anything to do with Wyckoff. This is not to suggest that W is the only way or even the best way. Just trying to keep interested readers on the same page. Db
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Understanding the Felton Trading System
DbPhoenix replied to Roger Felton's topic in Technical Analysis
So you've decided not to contribute anything after all because you haven't been sufficiently appreciated? Perhaps you'd be appreciated more if you went ahead and made the contribution rather than bask in the satisfaction of having announced that you plan to make it. You began by making a number of claims which were unsubstantiated and, understandably, prompted skepticism. You then elected to insist that demands for any such substantiation were unreasonable. This prompted reactions that were considerably more hostile. Throughout you played victim, harassed and persecuted, when all you wanted to do was contribute to TL, and at no cost to members. Well, here it is. The rubber meets the road. And you decide not to contribute anything after all because somebody might be mean to you and hurt your feelings. This has been one hell of a performance, and I applaud MMS' patience and tolerance. Perhaps worthwhile lessons have been learned all round. Db -
What larger volume traders base their decisions on is not necessarily pertinent to the small volume trader at home. The little guy can't trade what he can't see, and there's too much that can't be seen in a large interval bar. If he feels "rushed" and/or is making "poor decisions", he very likely doesn't know what he's looking for and/or doesn't know what to do with it if and when he sees it. Db
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Understanding the Felton Trading System
DbPhoenix replied to Roger Felton's topic in Technical Analysis
In order to avoid the appearance that all of your assurances that your only goal here is to "contribute" something amount to nothing more than harvesting email addresses, why not just post it? Db -
I'm bumping this thread for several reasons: (1) there's been a lot of talk about breakouts, retracements, and reversals lately, (2) there's too much good information in this thread for it to be so far down on the list, (3) I want to reiterate and re-emphasize what I've said several times in this thread, beginning with post #2, which is that one must use a small bar interval -- preferably 1m or less -- in order to see the retracements that nearly always occur after breakouts. One cannot very well trade what one cannot see, and a 5m bar interval isn't going to do you any good at all. This was the case not only this morning but on nearly every morning. If you're going to trade price, you have to be able to see it move, and that means left to right, not up and down in a 5m -- or 10 or 15 or whatever -- bar as if it were on a trampoline. If you're trading a longer bar interval than 1m, then you're behind, and if you're behind, then you have to play catch up, and being in that position is prime opportunity for making bad decisions. Knowing what to look for is only part of it. You also have to be able to see it. If you can't see it, you can't trade it. And if you're not trading it, then what is all of this for? Db
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Standard Operating Procedure. Stop And Reverse. Db
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A short at rejection of R is SOP, though if one were long (chart 4), he'd have to SAR. There's really nothing to think about. R is at 2620+/- and S is at 2500+/-. Thinking about it too much generally leads to an inability to move. As for entries and exits, possibilities are noted on the above charts. Again they are SOP and should be consistent with all the other charts posted in the Forum. Db
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Where we are:
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Thank you, but that was not quite what I was asking. Whether or not the moderator shows charts is largely immaterial. What matters is whether or not the student can see the moderator enter and transmit the order, not "placed", or "will place". If the student cannot see the order being physically entered and transmitted, then it's all nonsense. As for audited brokerage statements, I can understand the reluctance to provide these, though it is not unheard of in the trading educator community. What puzzles me is why anybody would be reluctant to provide trading statements of SIM trades. Without at least those and without a real-time display of the order entry and transmission, there's no evidence that the moderator is actually trading, or, for that matter, has ever traded at all. Db
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Technically, this ought to go in the TICKQ thread, but without the context (today's posts here), it wouldn't make much sense. I post this here to show (a) how the T may or may not have been helpful and (b) that the T is anything but a magic bullet. For me, I see little that is helpful here. If I had a short on the way down and were exiting it at S, the behavior of the T would give me a bit of added confidence if I wanted to enter a long, a bit late, at 53 or 54 or even 55. Or not. Now we're talking hindsight, so who can say for sure? But as for the third/fourth arrow, yes. That, along with the near parabolic rise up into the R zone, screams "lighten up". So not always helpful, but helpful enough. Db
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Incidentally, let's not lose sight of the fact that you're doing well. But if I didn't think you could do better, I wouldn't be making these posts. Db
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Thanks for your reply. This is what I wanted to know. If the trader is not providing a display that shows where and how he's entering the trade at the instant he's entering it (no different than the display you see when you're entering a trade), along with whatever cover stops he may be incorporating, then it's all just tap-dancing. What the traders claim is completely irrelevant, and no one should tolerate anything less than a real-time display of order transmissions. In this way, the observer can conduct his own audit of profits and losses in real-time, and financial statements are unnecessary (and possibly misleading, since they can be faked). As for not showing charts at all of what's being traded, that's simply ludicrous. Db
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This is always a problem when one thinks he knows more than his plan. I guess it depends on whether the plan is just an exercise or if it's a vigorous, robust plan of attack. I can't answer that one for you. Improvisation is often necessary. Today was a good example of that. But being able to improvise and being able to follow a strategy are equally important. Improvisation may often be necessary, but it should not be your default position. Db
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But you have no way of knowing in RT whether R is going to be a problem or not. What if price were to sail right through it? You'd just be watching, making no money. At worst, you'd be out at BE. At best, maybe a couple of points. But at least you'd be engaging the market. And following your plan. Since you pegged R at 55, correctly, there's no reason why you can't put your stop there. This is much different from taking a RET that occurs after an extended run and putting your stop under the RET rather than under the turning point (2). It will almost surely be hit. And all of that is fine. Except for the bias part. Lose that. But none of that has anything to do with taking the long in the first place. You would have served yourself better by thinking how you would take the short if you were in the long at the time. That takes a bit more agility, though not much. Again, the past is past. You can't trade the past. Thinking about the past while you're assessing the situation or, worse, in a trade, will immobilize you. I wouldn't say missed it, but the S/R lines I've been drawing have been at 65-68. This chart may be helpful. Or not. You're in at the green dot. You take your first profit at the break of the demand line. You take the rest at BE. Then the short. In this case, you can enter at the LH, which you would probably do anyway if you weren't incorporating the TICKQ. If there is no LH, then you're pretty much stuck, unless you do an SAR, which I suggest you postpone indefinitely. If you do have an op to short, you will likely draw the supply line in your head. This isn't the time to be futzing around with lines. When you hit S, you have some choices to make. Do you follow your plan or dump everything and wait for a long entry? In this case, there are several acceptable long entries (the three green dots). Of course, the longer you wait, the farther you are from your stop. That's a choice you have to make. But you've got at least 6-8 pts by now, so it isn't as if you're trying to trade out of a hole. These are the informed risks one sometimes has to take. Then you get to R. First exit at the break of the DL, second at the LH. And so on. Db
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You posted just before I did. For some reason, you're not following your plans, and you need to figure out why. Acc to your plan, your first entry would have been on the RET at 0933. Your first exit would then have been at the break of the demand line at 0941. Then the LH and BE at 0945. None of that happened. How come? As for #2, that's your entry, as I stated earlier. That makes the entry at #3 moot. If you don't or can't enter where you're supposed to enter, don't enter at all. #3 is clearly too late, as trading runs out of steam almost immediately. Db Edit: And BTW, the stop is at 50, not 64.
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Notice the giant TD at the double top at 70. But the use of that was not part of your plan. If it had been, then you have to think about whether that TD would have triggered a change of plan, exiting the long, and shorting the double top. If it had, you would now have a nice supply line to work with. But note also how much the pace has slowed. How long do you want to screw around with this? Lots to chew on. Db
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Actually, that ship has sailed. I'll wait to hear what Siuya has to say. But thanks anyway. Db
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At this point, you may be wondering if you should have sold everything and shorted what turned out to be a double top. Resist this. None of that was in your plan. If you traded your plan correctly, you did well, and it's already after 1030. Don't revert to hot-dogging in the middle of a trade. Db
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And here's a good example of having to modify your plan on the run. Since no new high was made, a supply line technically can't be drawn. So do you draw one anyway, or move everything up below that attempt at a swing low at 1016? Remember that you always have the opportunity to re-enter. Db
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Remember also that you can't draw a demand line until you get at least one RET. So you'll just have to tough out the "weakness" at 1018. Db
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If you traded your plan as stated, you were out within minutes, though with a small profit. The trick at that point was to keep your wits about you and look at what price did then. Since it bounced off S at 0951, tbere's no reason why you could not have reapplied the same plan. If you didn't, that's fine. But it was there if you were able to maintain (or regain) your calm. Note also that the TICKQ was of no help whatsoever at the opening top. Db