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DbPhoenix
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix
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I have a better idea. Given the seven or eight charts I did for the 90M thread, why not show me what you'd do? Remember to read the chart from left to right. Db
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While I agree with your remarks regarding trading, the above comment is true only if you buy into the vendors' spiels. Indicators are a relatively recent phenomenon, and software is more recent than that. There was a perception in the late nineties that with the development of indicators and affordable trading software and the internet and discount brokerages that a new era of easy money was at hand. But "traders" continue to lose money just as easily and just as fast, if not faster. Indicators are an elective, not a required. Db
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And gold exits the hinge. Whether or not it holds its position remains to be seen. Db
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When the short is taken, whatever hinge there might be has not yet formed. And I didn't plot volume, so it wasn't a consideration. Db
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A lunchtime update: Price moves up past minor R thru the midpoint of the trading range and fails just a few minutes later. Those of you who have been studying the Forum know that this is weakness. Price rallies again, but makes a lower high. Additional weakness. And there's your short at 88. Just demand/supply and support/resistance. Simple. Db
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I was going to post this before the open, but I lost my internet connection. The ES is much the same, though it is currently 3pts above its midpoint. This could have been posted in several places, but here is as good a place as any. Db
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Thank you for your comments. But just to make sure I'm not misunderstood, "simple" is not the same as "easy". Not nearly. Not anywhere near nearly. Few beginners, for example, can maintain focus for more than an hour, if that, much less six or seven, which is why I began my Trading in 90 Minutes thread. IOW, knowing that one must maintain focus (and be disciplined and so forth) is a duh. Doing it is anything but easy. As to a "key", the only key I know of is understanding what traders are doing and why as opposed to waiting for the red line to cross the blue line. Being able to tell the difference between up and down is also helpful. Nothing mysterious. No secret handshake or anything. Db
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You say that you are content with your results though they are not good and that it's your fault. In the cosmic sense, I suppose it is your fault, like buying a used Yugo and having it fall apart the next day. Yes, it's your fault, but is it really? How "everyone" starts out is not particularly pertinent. Everyone learns, and everyone wishes they'd done something (everything) differently at the beginning. Therefore, starting out like everybody starts out is most likely the wrong course. I suggest you review everything you're doing and clean house. This doesn't imply throwing out anything, but it does mean re-examining the elements of your strategy and tactics and putting everything in order. Perhaps a new order. This will take care of most or all of the emotions that appear to be tripping you up. 1. Why are you trading the ES? 2. Is the slosto something you can depend on? Something you can trust? Can you act on its signals without hesitation? Can you depend on the RSI, trust it, act on it without hesitation? Ditto for the Fib, the Pivots, whatever channels, trendlines, MAs, patterns. Review each and every one of these elements with these questions in mind. If any or all of these indicators aren't helping you, they're hurting you and preventing you from becoming the trader you believe you can be. 3. Moving your stop doesn't reduce your risk; it increases it. Placing a stop does not absolve you of the responsibility for the management and outcome of the trade. You must be actively involved in the trade from the moment the order is filled. You must know how to determine whether or not it's gone wrong. If it has, you have to be ready to get out, stop or no stop. If you don't know how to make this determination, stops will not save you. They will most likely lose you money instead. 4. Don't trade one contract. Trade at least three, preferably five. Learn how to manage those contracts. Then, when you're ready to trade for real, trade one for real and simtrade the others. Then trade two for real. Then three. And so on. The subject of risk and risk management and trade management will take on an entirely new meaning for you, and whatever traces of fear remain will disappear. 5. Stop posting on message boards. Whatever anyone says about his experience or prowess or trades or results can be taken with a large grain of salt, and if you read others' posts, they will almost unavoidably affect what you do or don't do and how you think and feel about it. What anybody else thinks about what you're doing is irrelevant, including me. All that matters is your results, your objective, unrationalized, unexcused results. Those are what they are regardless of what you and anyone else thinks about them. I suspect you can do this, and since it's been only five months, it's not too late to back up and do some serious reassessment. Wait too much longer, though, and you may end up being one of the many who spends two or three years or five or ten struggling to find the right indicator settings and entry and exit signals and so forth and so on. This is so much simpler than most people realize. But you have to know what you're looking at. Best of luck. Db
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Are you happy with the results you're achieving? Do you think that after 5 months you should be farther along than you are? Db
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2 and 3 are definitely the wrong paths. Better. How are you going to go about doing that? What are you doing now? Db
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And this gold hinge ought to resolve itself within the week:
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Up to you, but I would not have placed it higher than 620. Broader market. But they're both weak. I use the BigCharts material for the consistency. There will be slight differences because of the stocks that comprise the composites. See Section 8 of the course. For the charts themselves, see these posts: here and here. Db
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Thank you for the charts. I hope you can see now how important it is to monitor this sort of thing on a continuing basis since the best short was Monday. What is meant by "Back then I couldn't be asked with the Sector/Market/group analysis"? Now the interested trader will have to see what happens with the rally. Db
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Not a bad time to begin monitoring this (aapl), if one hasn't already been doing so. See also post #144. Db Edit: Since no one followed up on this, at least for posting, I'll bring it all up to date. Market: Demand and supply lines began showing weakness 2 and 3 weeks ago. It hasn't gotten better. Sector: Lower high last Thursday. Earnings shortfall not announced until yesterday. Group: Lower high last Thursday. Lower low Monday. Earnings shortfall not announced until yesterday. Stock: Weakness in the supply line since 6/11. Break of the demand line Monday. Earnings shortfall not announced until yesterday. Wait for the "news" and you will very likely be late. Db
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Even though this thread is about trading between 0930 and 1100, it's interesting to look at what traders are doing to create support and resistance levels premkt as well as the wave structure. This can be observed while eating your cereal. Db
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Since you've posted so little over the past year, I don't know what you're involved in, but I assume you haven't spent much time in the Wyckoff Forum, if any. You may not know, then, that the supply/demand lines have little to do with entries. The entries are taken instead on retests, or "double tops/bottoms". A break of one of these lines means only that the "stride" has changed, not that price will necessarily reverse. For that you generally need a retest of what in real time appears to be a bottom/top. In this case, there was no retest in the NQ but rather a "V" reversal. One doesn't know in real time that this is what one has until it's already over. The question then becomes one of where to enter at minimum risk (as opposed to just jumping in and hoping for the best). This occurs at the first retracement. Here the first retracement occurs rather late, but it's that or nothing. And that's where I entered (note that on the ES, you have a nice retest and a clear entry opportunity). Other NQ entry ops occur at the breakout from the trading range that forms while the ES is retesting its low or the retracement that occurs after that breakout, but these are even later. If this stuff interests you, I suggest you read the Introduction to the Forum. If that interests you further, read the Stickie on Demand and Supply. If you are then still with me, read the other Stickies on Judging the Market by its Own Action, Buying and Selling Waves, and Determining the Trend of the Market (as I survey posts in other forums and other message boards, this last appears to be the stick in the spokes for just about everybody, which is why even those who call themselves "trading educators" end up trying to short uptrends and buy downtrends and wait too long to exit once proved wrong or exit too early with a BE or a loss: they don't understand what they're looking at, so they don't know what to do with it other than go with what they feel; this is not a formula for success). Beyond all of that, there are 3000 posts in the Forum, but these Stickies will tell you whether the material is worth your time or not. Db
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Re the post six back, here are charts for the NQ and ES. These will be the last.
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It's allright to draw them in your head if you can. Taking the time to draw them on the chart can throw you off. Draw them in later for posting or archiving. Db
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.....................................
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Actually, the correct entry was at 5am, but I was asleep. The opening bar was also a possibility, but I didn't like the violence of the opening retracement nor the drop below the demand line. Nor was I comfortable with the 4-5pt risk. As to being just prior to a reversal, since the long was taken in real time, there was no way of knowing that a reversal would take place minutes later. A more important considertation was to minimize risk, in this case just a few ticks. That's true. And those who've read the course and/or studied the Forum know that context is paramount. However, they are also capable of bringing up a 1m NQ chart on a number of websites, or their own charting programs, and going back as far as they like to get the overall S/R picture. That's a large part of the process of taking charge of one's own education. Db
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That's correct. The Wyckoff approach applies to any market that's traded according to the principles governing demand and supply. If by "equally well" you mean profitable, that of course would depend entirely on the trader since the approach is not mechanical. Db
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Trading in 139 Minutes:
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When I traded intraday, I used stop-limits for entries and market exits. This is all personal preference, of course. Db
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Trading in 90 Minutes:
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Nice. Take care, however, even if you're doing this only for yourself, to stage your S/R and the S/D lines. For example, the demand line you've drawn at around noon off your long should be rotated slightly to the left, under that first swing point below R. This would give you a potential exit signal if price (1) breaks the DL and (2) drops below S. When price then makes a new high off your springboard, you can draw a new one where you have yours currently. S/D lines should hug the stride as closely as possible so that they can serve their function. This is largely what distinguishes them from trend lines, and enables the trader to be much more agile. And I reloaded your chart to make it sharper. Db
