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DbPhoenix
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix
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Your Mama Doesn't Trade ... So Wise Up to Yourself!
DbPhoenix replied to Ingot54's topic in Trading Psychology
I've read only the first few pages (my apologies), enough to see the same old pattern emerging: defending one's favorite books, insisting that the psychology must be addressed first, reverting to the same old avoidance of responsibility for failure, all while whizzing right past the whole business of trading plans. In twenty years, I have yet to encounter a failure who had and followed a trading plan. By the same token, every failure either did not have one or refused to follow it. So none of the waffle about psychology impresses me. My counsel to those who continuously whine about their "issues" is that they develop a goddamn trading plan and follow it. If they can't write one, much less follow it, they really ought to just quit. Db Edit: P.S. I do have a few books on my reading list, none of which have been mentioned here: General Semantics of Wall Street by John Magee The Nature of Risk/How to Buy/When to Sell by Justin Mamis Zen and the Art of Poker by Larry Phillips -
And speaking of resistance...
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Particularly that having a bias toward one side or another for whatever reason isn't nearly as important as knowing how to trade what's in front of you. And, of course, doing it. Db
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Again, for those who are interested... These are the shorts and longs mentioned earlier. using the same supply/demand lines and S&R lines. Entries are made inside the retracements. As for now, we've made a lower high at R (the midpoint) again and broken the current demand line. Therefore, another short bet 97 and 98 is appropriate. If price doesn't break its current supply line, the trade should be good down to 95-94. Db
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An update for those who are interested. As previously posted, price tested 96 from above and below, making 95 a good short at 0900 (the supply/demand lines are left as they were yesterday evening). At that point, price tests the next lower levels of support at 94 and 92, finding buyers at 93 and 92, but more devoted buyers at 92. The midpoint of all this is 99-1400. Db
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With regard to the chart posted yesterday afternoon, note that price dropped thru support at 2300, tried and failed to rally back above at 0400, tested support (now resistance) at 0900, making 95 a nice entry for a short. Db
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FYI, these are the S&R and Supply/Demand Lines for tomorrow. All of this may and probably will change by 0900 tomorrow. Or not. Db
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FYI, here's how it worked using S&R, RETs (retracements), and Supply&Demand Lines. The greens are the longs and the red the short. Simple, straightforward, and free. Db
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Click here. What the chart shows is that the buying waves are longer than the selling waves. This tells you that buyers are dominant. Until early this morning. At that time, price made a trip to S, at which it rebounded and resumed the uptrend, at least to R. And now the market is ranging again. At some point, traders will look for a new value and we begin again. That's the essence of auction markets. Db
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None of which was part of your plan. Price will not rocket toward your target without pause. If you freak out every time price pauses, you'll squander a lot of opportunities. At the very least, consider an exit that is triggered by the market rather than by your fear or impatience. For example, a simple demand line:
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And price temporarily finds balance between R and S. It's a Market Profile thing to do. Db
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FYI, the short is the reverse: price hits R, falls, retraces, resumes its downward stride. Here, the short entry was around 11:25 at around 1400.5. By following price rather than the indicator, you could have racked up quite a few points. Db
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You appear not to know how the slosto is calculated. It's derived from price, as are all indicators other than those which are volume-based. Google it for the calculation, or Google "George Lane". As for the entry, simple. Price hits S, rebounds, retraces, resumes its upward stride (see the asterisk on my chart). If it doesn't resume its upward stride, the entry is never triggered. Exactly the same thing occurred here at 12:30: price hits S, rebounds, retraces, resumes its upward stride. Entry is or was at 97.75 or thereabouts. Db
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And ES finds S at 96 again, at least temporarily (see previous chart). Db
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When and why did you move your stop? Db
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However, the momentum is already in the price movement. Otherwise, the slosto wouldn't be turning up. This chart may be helpful, more so if you've read the material on waves. If not, ask.
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In violent moves, however, often lie opportunities. The key is to know how to play them, i.e., let the climax run its course and pick up the test. Remember also that if you're already in the trade, the reaction to the news can work in your favor. Put a little turbo in your trading. Db
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You got it right, but the only criterion you're using that has any pertinence to the trade is that the trend is up. Support lies elsewhere and trendlines don't provide support. As for the slosto... Be that as it may, congratulations. Now stick with your plan. Db
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Take care regarding diagonal lines of whatever sort: demand lines, trend lines, whatever. They do not provide support or resistance; they only provide information regarding the relative strengths of buyers and sellers. What are you learning from all of this so far? Db
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Because Wyckoff is about the continuous movement of price, i.e., the continuity of trade transactions. Candles are about interrupting that flow with an artificial and arbitrary determination of interval. Unless one blends them. But if one blends them, what's the point in charting them at all? Db
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Congratulations. Notice how "light" they both became when they turned and broke through resistance? Db
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And if the NQ range is four times wider:) Db
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If the plan is thoroughly tested and has become consistently profitable, then, yes, one must take the trades no matter what. HOWEVER, one must also understand behavior well enough to know when to exit the trade if it doesn't meet expectations, and beginners are by their nature incapable of doing that because their fear triggers are firing like crazy. And, as you said earlier, if a pattern of bum trades manifests itself, then it's time to revisit the plan. Beginners ought not to be trading at all, sim or otherwise, without studying the market. But finding beginners who are willing to do this is a rare occurrence. Which is likely why successful traders are also a rare occurrence. Db
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Here, for example, both the NQ and ES are finding R in pretty much the same places tho the NQ folded before the ES. Short ops arose for the NQ around 10:20 and for the ES around 10:30. If one sees only the "uptrend", these ops escape notice entirely. Db
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I completely agree with the "again, this isn't for a beginner to try" part. And as for the following sentence, I agree with the "it's perfectly fine to sit back and not trade at all" part, but not the sim trade part. When the market throws the beginner a curve ball. his best option is to sit back and study what's happening objectively, which is next to impossible for a beginner to do if he has a trade on, sim or otherwise. If he tries to trade anyway, tentative loops are set up which will retard or even sabotage his efforts and set him back. The most common of these curve balls is the unanticipated trading range. Beginners believe that as soon as they've transmitted their order, price will immediately begin to move in the anticipated direction, surely in an extended trend that will net them large profits. But when they instead find themselves taking lots of tiny profits and tiny (hopefully) losses, they're stumped. And if they don't understand support and resistance, they keep throwing themselves against the wall, making modifications to their trading plans -- if they have any -- and drifting farther and farther into the weeds. Once a pattern of successive stopouts occurs, the beginner ought to just stand aside until the behavior -- trading range or trend -- becomes clear. At that point, he is far more likely to know what to do and far more likely to profit from whatever he does. Db