DbPhoenix

Well. Trading has shut down for a while, and we got within 7pts of my intermediate target. I thought we might reach the median of the trend channel today since it's only 60pts away, but it wasn't to be. Maybe tomorrow. Or we may try a rally first. All that aside, though, I'm going to make some changes. A couple of years ago, I said that I was going to stop discussing daytrading in this forum because only a tiny percentage of those who were participating were in a position to daytrade, whether in terms of time or temperament. Or both. Usually both. But by continuing to discuss it, I was enabling it, and I was extremely uncomfortable with that. However, people insisted, so I relented, and I shouldn't have. When the "House" thread started getting dragged into daytrading, I asked how many people were not only interested in daytrading but were in a position to actually do it. Ten people responded, so I opened up the "Intraday" thread. Unfortunately, there were several people who insisted on participating even though they had no idea what the thread was all about. This was counter-productive. So I moved the whole thing here. Trouble was, most of those ten vanished. So while I don't consider this to be a waste of time, it would be of far more value if there were (a) more than three or four people and (b) they talked to each other. Even so, watching this activity over the past three weeks, it has become clear to me that those who are participating just don't have the time or the temperament for daytrading. This is not a personal shortcoming. It is simply a fact. The days of earning what one needs within the first 90-120 minutes are long gone. Daytrading is now a long haul. And if one can't concentrate and focus on what he needs to concentrate and focus on for more than that amount of time, he is wasting his time. There is also the matter of content, particularly my posts and my charts. It is obvious that most are ignoring both. If so, they wouldn't be drawing all these lines and looking where they don't need to be looking and cutting profits short. The reward for enduring a range day or two or three or even four is the eventual trend day. Like today. And to throw it away because one doesn't know what to do with it is not only also a waste of time but unrealized profits squandered. Perhaps the problem is a lack of study. Perhaps the problem is a lack of understanding. Or perhaps it is our old friend fear. In any event, I'm making this worse by making this venue available in its present form. Therefore, starting tomorrow, I'm opening up these threads (I'll start a new one each week) to those who want to practice Wyckoff trading in whatever form, including the SLA/AMT, without having to concern themselves with trolls. If participants want to trade stocks or ETFs or commodities, fine. Just, please, no FX and no options. However, no charts will be accepted that are based on any bar length of less than 15m. Any charts that are posted with 5m bars or 1m bars or any other bars less than 15m will be deleted. 30m bars are better. Hourly bars are better still. Once you learn this stuff, you will be in a better position to daytrade if and when that opportunity ever comes up. Like when you retire. But you're not in a position to do it now. And I'm not going to enable whatever self-talk you may have regarding your suitability for daytrading, at least daytrading now. I suspect that those of you who continue will feel far better about all this once you're no longer feeling so goddamned much pressure, particularly the pressure to close everything out by the end of the day.

Today re-emphasizes the importance of using larger bar intervals for those who can't daytrade. It also re-emphasizes the importance of trading at least part of your funds in larger bar intervals. Unless one wants to stay up all nite. At the moment, Europe is taking care of that range below yesterday's trades, and unless one happened to be up at 0530, all he can do is review what has already happened, what he was no part of. The levels shown on yesterday's 5hr chart remain. But do we get a nice trend day? Or do we end up trading in yet another range? For those who are up, price appears to be testing 90 from the underside. 0700: The mkt appears to consider 74 to be the LL of that little range. 0726: Breaking thru median. 0733: Stalling at 78. If the btm of the range is 65, then 77 wld be the median. 0817: And here we are at 74 (too bad I'm by myself here). 0947: And here we are at 65. And if kp ever reads this, JUST SHORT THE DAMN RET. IT DOESN'T MATTER WHERE. And place your stop above the danger point. That's all there is to it. If this fails, next stop is 20.

0700: Traders will note that the 15m looks like price is on a glide path. I'll wait another hour or so before posting the chart. This will be very likely not be a pleasant day. 0755: Ah HA! Not such a smooth landing after all. 0822: Looks like it's going to be 4397 to 4410. 0830: The challenge here is going to be that little range that's underneath price. There are two trades here: a reversal of the UL of the range, which is the highest blue line I've drawn, or a break down thru that UL. Until one or the other occurs, there's no trade. So relax and observe. The challenge is that range. You have to decide whether you're going to short a break thru the UL, the next lower limit (the second blue line), or the LL (the third and lowest blue line). If you try to short the first, you will likely encounter a great deal of chop. Decide NOW how you're going to handle that. If you wait until the range is completely cleared, chop will not likely be an issue. However, if price simply plunges through that range, which is not all that wide, what are you going to do then? Decide NOW. Every action that you might take this morning can be anticipated and planned for. The more thoroughly prepared you are, the more likely you are to profit. And if fear makes an appearance, just stop. If you're in, get out. All this assumes, of course, that none of this will change prior to the opening bell. However, these are futures. You can enter any time you please. (I realize there are only two people here, but I have time for this now; I may not later) 0905: Now 4397 to 4313, which is the swing high just before Friday's close. And there's always the possibility that price can break out UP. Which will be a tough row to hoe, but rules are rules. 0926: I hope everyone took my end-of-week notes to heart. Good trading. 0940: Half is 05. 0946: And now between one range and another. A rock and a hard place. 1004: This provides an excellent example of why I discourage using the SLA in ranges. Price behaves differently in ranges than in trends, and if the trader insists on using the SLA in ranges, he's going to overtrade and he's going to get stopped out a lot. Why bother? Use AMT and relax. 1023: Hinge with an apex the same as the median. 1025: See how price behaves when eq is resolved. 1030: They got six pts out of it, now they're re-adjusting. 1039: Now a GIANT hinge. 1051: This is getting long in the tooth, and the lines will meet in half an hour. If it doesn't break soon, then it's of no use. 1106: Third effort to leave this range, but it doesn't want to travel more than halfway through it. 1115: Once these hinge lines meet, they can be deleted. 1129: Looks like all but two people are gone, but I'll point out that there is a larger hinge on the 15m chart, same apex +/-, but it won't resolve any time soon. End of Session I'm posting this not because the chart is so awfully difficult, but to point out that if one just happened to take the short off the failure at 24, there's no particular reason to exit just because one re-enters the range. If the line ain't broken, just stick with it, in this case all the way to the bottom of the range. At that point, one can either exit because he's reached the bottom, or he can wait until his SL is broken. Of course, it also helps to be there at 1330 . . .

I was going to post this tomorrow evening as I set up next week's thread, but it is the beginning of the weekend and some might want to move on to the next level. So . . . If one really wants to trade rather than just have something to occupy his time during the day and if he really wants to profit from it rather than just fuck around, then he's going to have to do a whole lot more than provide commentary. Yes, observation is necessary even with the SLA/AMT since, as I point out in Appendix F, one must still specify exactly what constitutes a "break" along with what to do about it, what constitutes a "breakout" along with the tactics for trading it, what constitutes a "retracement" along with the tactics for trading it, and so forth. However, this sort of observation needn't take more than a few days of replay in order to determine just where one's entry triggers ought to be and how much leeway the trade should be allowed before the trader exits. Once that's determined, it's time to get down to business. That means doing the prep. Every day. Beginning with at least the daily chart (and the weekly chart on Monday for the coming week) and progressing through the 5-hour if one likes that, the hourly, the 15m, and the 5m, the last most likely being posted just before the open. After these charts are posted along with those ranges and trends that are of most interest, the trader must state clearly exactly what he plans to do with all this information once the session begins. At minimum, where is he going to go long? Why? Where is he going to short? Why? What will be his entry trigger? What will he look for to determine whether to stay in the trade or exit? And all of this applies to each trading opportunity that he sees as a result of having annotated these charts. Before the open. Whether or not he then provides commentary on price movement and/or his trading during the session is entirely up to him. At the end of his session, there must be a trade review, or at least a chart review if no trades were made. How does what happened compare to what was expected to happen? What mistakes were made that must be avoided in future and what will the trader to do accomplish that (see, again, Appendix F). In summary, (1) prep, (2) trade, (3) review. Posting a chart with "this is what I'll be looking at" is not enough. Even those who are just observing and not trading must do this. Observation without purpose is little more than passing the time. If one has been observing for more than a few days, he ought at least venture into hypothesizing about what price is most likely to do where. Otherwise it can go on for months, and life is short. Reread the pdf, paying particular attention to Appendices E and F and the Afterword. Study Section 7 of W's course. And that's it.

You may then want to retitle the thread if a moderator will do it for you. Or start a new one. In any case, the SLA/AMT is not about mechanical trading at all, much less automation. Yes, one must characterize his market (Appendix E) regardless of how he approaches it, if he wants to profit from it. But the purpose of characterization is to become familiar with the particular market and how it "behaves". If this can be coded and automated and that's how the trader wants to trade, fine. But that's not what the SLA/AMT is all about. For those who don't visit the Wyckoff Forum very often, or at all, I've added a couple of things that represent big stumbling blocks. These will be found in Appendix F and the Afterword.

It's been tried: Tradeguider.

The following are the chief posts I've made this week, those having to do with "real time", or at least message board real time. Those who are interested in how rollovers are traded in real time may find them interesting, particularly as they are somewhat sloppier than hindsight insight. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/19167-trading-sla-amt-intraday-week-3-a.html#post196920 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/19167-trading-sla-amt-intraday-week-3-a.html#post196949 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/19167-trading-sla-amt-intraday-week-3-a.html#post196966 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/19167-trading-sla-amt-intraday-week-3-a.html#post196982 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/19167-trading-sla-amt-intraday-week-3-a.html#post197010 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/19167-trading-sla-amt-intraday-week-3-a.html#post197026 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/19167-trading-sla-amt-intraday-week-3-a-2.html#post197042 I don't know how much longer I'm going to do this, but, for the time being, I'm going to try to post only once during the day. This will begin with the prep, then whatever comments I have time to make, which I generally don't since the trading is more important to me, and an end-of-session chart, which might be as early as 1100, that plots the various things one should have anticipated or at least been noticing in real time.

And we bounce off the range I mention above. 44pts total from the LL of the range charted before the open (34-64).

I realize everybody's gone, but, just for the record, there's a range from early February that's coming up. Below that, there's a lot of air.

While I don't like being abrupt (I'll save that for ET), there is zero point in doing all this prep and posting all these charts before the open if you're going to toss all of that out the window when the bell rings and ignore your own work. You should know before the open, after having done all these charts, EXACTLY what you're going to do when the market opens. News may move it before the open. Stocks may move it after. Doesn't matter. If you don't know where you're going to go long and where you're going to go short and how much room you're going to give the trade BEFORE THE OPEN, then you are not prepared and you shouldn't even be taking notes. Focusing on the wrong thing will only set you back further than if you had done nothing at all. ---------------------------------------- Will likely exit at 20 and assess the situation from there. Next up is 00. After that is 96, but 00 will likely present a problem.

There's not much point in doing these context charts before the open if they're going to be ignored as soon as the bell rings. There should be no mystery about 50. Nor should there be any mystery about the bounce off the LL of the range. Nor should there be any diagonal lines. Nor talk of bias. Make the most of these postings. DO NOT TRADE THE SLA IN A RANGE!! If you have not yet read Appendix F, do so. FOCUS! CONCENTRATE! If you had taken the reversal at the LL of the range as prescribed, you'd be way past your entry point and sitting and doing nothing.

Gringo pointed out this hinge, which gives us more or less the same mean:

Well, not exactly new. I've revised the SLA/AMT to include a chart example of a range in the AMT section, added an appendix on fear (Appendix F), and added an Afterword to emphasize a few things that appear to have been overlooked by casual readers. I've also uploaded a separate pdf of "The Mind Game". This is something I wrote sixteen years ago or so and I've always liked it, which sounds odd, but there it is. It is so very applicable to the new Appendix F in particular but also the SLA/AMT in general that I've posted it along with the SLA/AMT pdf in the stickies. I hope both will be of benefit.

1034: HL and LH. Stop. 1050: From 50+ people to 3. Perhaps we ought to be posting girlie pictures. 1204: Well, I seem to have nailed 54.

0951: I hope it's obvious by now that the short was at 40. 1013: lkng @96 1030: This is what equilibrium lks like 1034: SL brk 1114: So far: 1120: @premkt hi

0928: The entry, of course, was two hours ago. 0939: $ rejects the high and brks the SL 0941: brk fails 0948: hinge 1001: climactic action at the open and at the old high complicates things. Lkng for activity at the upper limit of the TC at 50. For now they're just seekng eq. 1005: @50% 1014: 54 could be TC upper limit by now since the channel is diagonal. 1023: ranging again 1033: hinge formed at OL. Being tested. Howver this works out, we appear to be back in the range. 1041: 50 may be sentimental support. Today is pretty fucked. 1106: So all but one are gone 1134: Was looking forward to a nice uptrend day since we made new highs, but the market couldn't care less what I'm looking forward to. A return to the range is disappointing, but that's why one needs to become familiar with both the SLA and AMT. 1138: A few pts away from the LSL on Friday. So, going back to the pre-mkt charts and my note shortly after the open about the SL being broken and the break failing, one can see that if he took the short at the rejection of the pre-open range low and the break of the DL, the rest of the morning was just trade mgmt. If he didn't take the short, then he most likely would have been looking at repeated stopouts. These probably would have resulted in small losses, nothing damaging, but disappointing. In this case, the SL is largely irrelevant, but it does help keep one on track.

I'd love to know who these 36 people are

In case anyone has forgotten how the SLA works:

For questions that I may not see in the Trading threads (since I don't read every entry in every post -- sorry).

0937: Stalling at 0445-0545 hinge 1002: It should be obvious by now that this is where the SLA is far more important than AMT. 1005: Those of you who have not yet done so would do well to calculate the maximum OS condition so far. 1009: It should be obvious by now that the 0945 bar was an "intent" bar. Look at where it was printed and ask yourself why it was printed there and what you should look for in future in order to take advantage of these moves. The 0934 bar also shows intent, but not to quite the degree. 1014: Incidentally, one could have predicted that this would be a big day since we have half the number of guests. 1027: Note that the first wave took us to 73, the second to 74, and now the third is stalling out. One could argue that the first wave ended at 58 and the second at 73, but the dynamic is the same. 1056: After so much time spent with AMT recently, trading the SLA must seem downright mechanical. 1059: Who let all these dogs in here?

EOW There are a few things that come to mind in terms of lessons over the last 3 weeks. 1. If price gets to a level you are watching and behaves in a certain way you understand take the trade, no ifs no buts, you do not know what will happen next the rest is speculation. The winners you fail to take are as painful as the losers you make. 2. Don't sweat the small stuff plan the trade, trade the plan. 3 Prep is as important as taking the trades, understand what is going on around you. More specifically today. Any lines one has should be treated as a guide, price being at support is not as important as price behaving like it is at support. Todays low put in a ret then confirmed into my range low, an order could have been trailed in tight behind to catch a rally, this might require testicular fortitude to take it on, or the ret confirmed and instantly rejects turning into a dog, once the ret high gets taken out an entry could be taken there, or you could wait for a further ret which comes a few minutes later, the problem is you get further and further away from your ideal entry and closer to the mean where price could chew you up. Price rallied again to the opening high, put in a ret and again rejected right into a DT, another dog, whilst there were alot of rets throughout the day that confirmed and failed, the ones that ended up doing anything tended to be at points of interest. To cut a long story short, Behaviour + Context = Opportunity. I'm going to think about this some more, just thought I would get it out whilst its still fresh. Take it easy Gamera. Gears: What I Learned Today: --It's not a new lesson, but when price is ranging, the extremes are the best entries and where all the fun seems to be. I wasn't trading/simming, but that's the name of the game. No matter how quickly price may move in another area (and you might be dying to get in on the action), waiting is the best advice one can take. --I did learn some patience today as the more I see AMT in conjunction with ranges and trader behavior repeat, confidence is gained. --Still haven't figured out hinges - what constitutes a test, what 'tells' might exist for where price will go next. Summary: A slow grinding, choppy and range bound day. Learned and witnessed first hand, the importance of using larger interval bars, and looking more to the left on choppy, and range bound days. Have a nice weekend everyone. Schaefer

Thanks for the votes. Poll: Do you believe DBPhoenix's writings can make you a profitable trader? | Elite Trader Trolls are useless.

0953: Was looking for target of 45 but may have missed something. 1425: Well, we finally got there, but how many hours did it take? 0956: From 50 ppl to 18. Guess we're not giving them what they want. 0957: The OL is 50%. And reports at 1000. 1014: Sorry I can't post more. Way too much going on. 1017: I should point out that once we get going I remove all the lines I was using for the open. My 1m chart is now blank. 1043: It would be helpful if each of you were to post a What I Learned Today after the end of your session. 1051: Note that the apex of this hinge is more or less the median of the pre-open range. 1105: Lots of see-sawing today. 1124: Once the hinge completes, you nearly always wind up with a range. Or, in this case, a range within a range within a range within a range. I'm not babysitting this one.

I'm referring back to this post I made yesterday partly to show just how full of crap I can be and partly to point out that that "channel" we talked about appears to be intact. If so, it may account for the bounces just above 40, and if it is, we have a few points to go on the upside. There is logic to AMT, though one doesn't always know where to look for it.