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DbPhoenix
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix
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Yes and no. Someone with more experience might get more out of it starting from where you are, but that doesn't mean that they'll get all there is to be got. Nowhere near. I've lost count of the number of times I've re-read Section 7. And I've read all the sections I've included in Wyckoff Lite far more than once. There are many layers in this material, which is why when somebody new tells me that he's read all the threads and the course in a couple of weeks and he's ready to go, I know that he's lying, either to me or to himself. This becomes obvious by the questions he asks. And he'll be asking a lot. So there is a certain amount of reading and study that has to take place before one is ready to begin, but it never really stops. Just the other day I was reviewing a section of Part 2 to help me make better opening trades. What is perhaps most difficult to put across is the difference between observing price movement in order to understand it and observing price movement in order to find an entry point for a trade. Few beginners get this. Actually, few traders get it. So they'll never understand it. And they'll never understand trading by price action. Fortunately, this is not my problem. Db
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No. But then I don't have any emotional issues. If I did, I'd be scrupulous about the if-then to prevent myself from getting all tangled up in should I shouldn't I and being incapable of taking action. Db
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Specifically, the drop out of it. Hence, WTF? Here's the post I made several years ago. Back in the day, I used what I've provided in the first post. But I'm way past the point of looking for new setups. Db
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Funny you should mention that since there was a nice one in the NQ this morning at 10:55, for 8pts. But then S won out and price reversed for 14pts. Judging from the other threads, nobody else saw it, but that's usually the case. As for adding setups, no hurry. Get comfortable with what you have. Success feeds success. Db
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I think you mean Studies in Tape Reading. Techniques in Tape Reading was written by Vad Graifer. The former is posted to the Introduction. In any case, Wyckoff was not wedded to jargon. He used a variety of synonyms to describe the same thing. The hinge was an excellent example of this. Focusing on one setup -- in your case, gaps -- is a plus for a beginner, but you will find at some point that it's limiting -- you miss too many ops that seem to you like shooting fish in a barrel. Hinges -- and other springboards -- are excellent trading ops, at least partly because they go unnoticed even by "experienced" traders. And one can't scan for them. Play with them if and when you like, but be careful how you play them. Hinges unleash a torrent of emotional responses, and if you succumb to that as well, you'll get batted around like a soccer ball. Db
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Have you made re-entry (after exit) a part of your plan? If not, you'll be much more likely to hold even though you ought to exit because you'll think -- somewhere -- that it's all over if you fold. If you exit quickly when called for, the re-entry will likely be at the same price or even better. See the "trades" I posted in the early part of the Trading in 90 Minutes thread*. But you must take charge of the exit and not view it as a failure. The failures are those who will hang on until price falls much farther than it should until they call it quits, if they ever do. That's why it's called Trading By Price and not Trading By Hope. Db *2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 15, 18, 25 See also 111.
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Acknowledging the market's (traders') mood can be helpful as long as one doesn't allow himself to become infected by it. If one is going to trade by price, he must remain clinical. In this way, he can take advantage of others' emotional responses. He must avoid bias. For example, Friday, even though the trend was down, we had reached an inflection point. This left everything open. The beginners, on the other hand, tried to short at every opportunity, which just fed the rise. Now that both the ES and NQ rose on Friday in largely parabolic moves, the beginners will expect a continuation. And they may be right. But both inst. have reached resistance and they've reached the tops of IT trend channels, another inflection point. So it's not beyond imagination that the beginners will be left holding the bag again (except for those who don't mind reading:)). We'll see what happens between now and tomorrow morning. Db
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That was a wiser choice. Let the market show its hand. Then you're less likely to get your chain yanked. The S/D lines should hug price as closely as possible. Otherwise they become trend lines and are of much less use in intraday trading. You're welcome to put it here. Nobody else is using it, and others might learn from the work you're doing. As far as keeping the Forum clean, that ship sailed long ago:) Db
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If you don't read my posts, tupapa, it's going to be impossible for you to learn anything from them. I will repeat yet again that the interday trend is largely irrelevant to the daytrader. If you don't understand that, then read the posts I've made to this thread. The chart you've drawn has absolutely no relevance whatsoever to the choices you must make once NY opens. Yes, we are in a downtrend at the open, but what happened last week has nothing to do with it. The relevant downtrend doesn't begin until well after midnight on the 24th. And once the hinge begins, whatever trend there might have been goes on hold. If you don't understand how to determine trend or what a hinge is or what a springboard is or what a shakeout is then you're going to have to read the relevant threads and the course. You started out well, but if you insist on continuing to trade even though you're not ready to begin doing so, at least trading by price, your progress will be retarded, not accelerated. Stop trading until you understand what you're looking at. Whether you "place your buy/sell stop 1 tick or 2 ticks above the close of the bar on the 1 min bar" makes absolutely no difference if you're entering the wrong trade in the wrong place at the wrong time. Db
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See post #29. Yesterday morning. If you mean bar interval, it's 1m. It's not an entry at all. The downside has been rejected, so there's no reason to go short. This isn't a RET in a downtrend; it's a shakeout. Db
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You're welcome. Did you buy that REGN hinge Thursday morning? Db
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All the blogs are gone. They were dissembled and converted into "articles". Fortunately, I'd already converted everything I wanted to keep into pdfs when I left several years ago and made them a part of my book (I've learned to back up stuff I don't want to lose). I've moved what I consider the more important stuff to the Wyckoff Forum so I could update the links. So the bulk of it will be either here or in the Articles section. If anybody has questions, though, best ask them here. Db
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Good questions. I've been doing this so long, and this Forum is so old, I forget that not everyone is up to speed on the content. Volume is transactions. Without transactions, there is no price movement. So volume is not only necessary, it's inescapable. And, years ago, I went into great detail about how to interpret volume, i.e., how to take the information about transactions and formulate some hypotheses about price movement, or even draw some conclusions. However, due to some approaches that transform volume into an indicator, it is now practically impossible for beginners -- and some not-so-beginners -- to see it as anything else. It's even color-coded, for Christ's sake. In that state, it becomes a distraction and a hindrance for those who are trying to read price. Therefore, I've begun suggesting to beginners that they just leave it off with the possible exception of those occasions when price reaches an important level and the number of transactions which accompany the movement are actually helpful. Once the beginner begins to learn what volume actually is, he can then put it in its place and even put it back on his charts. Actually, they all lag. But they're not "bad", just unnecessary. Depends on the trader's trading window and his objectives. As I've been posting in the Trading By Price thread, interday trend is largely irrelevant to the daytrader unless some important level that might affect the intraday trading is nearby, such as today in the ES (see the TBP thread). What is far more important is the trend leading up to the open. Combine that with the lengths of the buying and selling waves, and you have a pretty good starting point for your initial trades. After that, one trades the price action without much regard for trend. Supply and demand lines become far more important. Please forgive me for not providing links. I do so much of that and I don't know that it accomplishes anything. If you're interested in pursuing this, let me know and I'll come back and edit this post to include the links. Db
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For those who have forgotten how to play a hinge or who have not yet read the Hinges thread, here's how it goes: Potential entries are in green. The downside fakeout in the ES is a virtual guarantee that price will run to the top. Potential entries are here in green also.
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And that's 90m. Db ...
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NQ doing nicely. ES just sits there, as usual. The fascination with the ES continues to escape me:confused: Db
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Both exit their hinges to the upside, but the trend is still down. Db
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ES makes a higher low and a lower high defining a TR. Ditto with the NQ. Db
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Much punditry over where the ES goes from here. The trend is down, but we've hit at least marginal support, resulting in an "inflection point". Support on the NQ is considerably lower, though 2740 is a possibility:
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I haven't marked anything with a black circle. This is your chart. All I've marked is the top of a potential TR and the last swing low along with a suggested short entry and a suggested long entry. Again, if you want to understand this stuff, you're going to have to study the material. All you want to know is right here. Db
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This is today's ES, so far. What's going on?
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It qualifies, though the volume is pretty feeble. A better op which you ought to consider is the RET following the opening rally. This would get you in much earlier, and it's an excellent trading entry as you're able to trade off others' emotions -- and games -- whereas with the hinge you're trading off a battle, which is more calculated. A minor distinction perhaps, but one worth keeping in mind. Db
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You're taking my comments out of context, in isolation, and drawing unintended conclusions. If you'll review the posts I made yesterday here and elsewhere -- there aren't many -- you'll note that I made them with regard to trading ranges. Entering a trade within a trading range is high risk because price has no direction other than up and down within the range. You're buying and shorting within the range in hopes that price will exit the range and reach targets outside the range. If you're going to enter within a range, you can't expect anything better than to reach the opposite side of the range. With regard to your chart, there are no TRs at the time you want to take your trades: there is a move down, a rally to the last swing high, a resumption of the move down, a rally to the last swing low (which is an op to short), a further move up to the opening high, a drift down to 1412, then up to the opening high again, then the close. Since the trend is down by the time you've drawn your first circle, the focus is short, not long, until you get a higher low, since you don't know where support is, except in hindsight. Therefore, your second circle designates a short op. When you then make a higher low, you exit and go long five or six bars later. Whatever TR there may be doesn't form until after lunch, when price can make neither a new high nor a new low. I'm going to assume that you haven't read the trend thread, the S&R thread, or the course, at least the "Wyckoff Lite" version (when you reach Section 7, you'll find that there's not a single trendline anywhere). Until you do so, you're just wasting your time with one trade after another, trying to create a strategy out of what are essentially random trades, without any study. Yes, that can be done, but why? It takes far longer and there's no reason for it. Stop trading. If you're going to use price action, then focus on analyzing price action (see post #60 and forward). You have to understand what you're looking at before you can know what to do with it. Otherwise, the best you can hope for is lunch money.
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Unfortunately, I have little to add to what I've already posted today, here and elsewhere. The interday trend is not particularly pertinent to intraday trading. Therefore, none of your trendlines are particularly pertinent. All that matters is that price was in a downtrend from last night to this morning until it found S at 1407, probably because of the R it found there last week. It then rallied to 11.5 and traded in a range thereafter. And that's all there is to it. If you're going to trade a range, you have to sell R and buy S. In a narrow range, there's no time for RETs; you have to just do it. But given the trivial reward, I don't see the point, unless you want to begin scalping, which is too often the refuge of traders who don't know what they're looking at. To enter below R and above S is no good either, particularly if you're doing it in the hope that price will exit the trading range. That's not how it works. The risk is too high. If the range isn't wide enough to trade for a reasonably reward and you can't wait for price to exit the range and begin trending again, then don't trade at all. Just wait for the right circumstances. There are no trades here, with the possible exception of longs at 1130 and 1400 (EST): the first would have yielded a point and the second three points, on a 1m chart, if you played it well. Is that worth sitting in front of your computer for seven hours? Below are the relevant supply and demand lines during this timeframe. They'd be easier to see on a 1m chart, but such a chart would be far too big for this timeframe, and it's all hindsight anyway. I'll try again to drive home the point that MAs and trendlines do not provide support or resistance. That's not their job. So don't rely on them for such. If you can't help doing so, leave them off entirely.
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Entering a trade without knowing the direction of price is high risk. Since you haven't provided a chart, I don't know what you did or what you were looking at when you entered. Db
