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DbPhoenix
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix
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Is There a Strategy Wins 90%
DbPhoenix replied to Jack Francisco's topic in Swing Trading and Position Trading
I disagree that there is no way to thoroughly test a plan, though I suppose it depends on what one means by "thorough". As to the other, one can be consistently profitable every day. Depends on the plan and the management. Db -
To continue, review these five charts and show what trades you'd take trading only one lot. Show the entry and the exit for each. Db
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Thanks for the update, but, in case I haven't been clear, a tick chart, to me, is one tick. More than that and you're back to bars. But you've included the legend at the top of your chart, so there should be no confusion about the use of the work "tick". Db
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Thanks. But, in future, please try to get these posted no later than 10m before the open. There are a lot of lurkers out there, and I'd like time myself to comment on what you've posted, however useful that may or may not be. And now that others are posting charts, you all need time to look at each other's work. Db
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Running out of time here. As John points out, we are hugging the midpoint of the hinge he charted. We are also at the midpoint of the preceding range and at the upper limit of the range before that. This adds all sorts of dynamics to the open. Don't be a cowboy. Db
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So Gringo, stop looking at the attachments and post your charts Db
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That may be, but these trades aren't noted on the chart. If the charts aren't complete, you have no useful stats. This is incorrect. Even if you're trading commission-free, a BE trade is not a winner. It is null. Db
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I see only one setup in each chart. Is this incorrect? Db
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Is There a Strategy Wins 90%
DbPhoenix replied to Jack Francisco's topic in Swing Trading and Position Trading
If you have a thoroughly-tested, consistently profitable trading plan and you follow it in a disciplined manner, consider the possibility that you're trading the wrong instrument. Perhaps applying your plan to a different instrument might enable you to break through that wall and achieve a higher winrate. Db -
If I understand your process correctly, charts 1, 2, and 4 appear to be essentially BE trades, resulting in a W:L ratio of 2:5, or 40%. Is this correct? Db Incidentally, if this continues, I'll move it to the Journal thread.
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In your first sentence, I believe you mean "S", not "R". Test one lot, not two. If you can't develop a consistently profitable strategy with one lot, you aren't going to do it with two, for a variety of reasons. ............................... Show me five charts from your Bund backtest that illustrate this setup. Db
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The Great Sinner (Gregory Peck)
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1. Define "reversal setup". 2. You refer to "scaling out". How many lots are you trading in your backtests? Db
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Correct. Thank you. Db
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What I'm trying to get to is an understanding of what you're doing and what your results are. As to whether or not your trading is shit, I have no idea. If the stats you provided are for a backtest of some sort, they are encouraging, but if they aren't proving to be valid in RT trading, then there clearly is a problem. Perhaps your planning isn't thorough enough. Perhaps you're not trading your plan. Perhaps your backtest wasn't constructed properly. Keeping daily and cumulative records of your stats will help keep you on track. Whether you are "just testing" or not isn't pertinent. If you don't maintain stats, the testing is pointless. You say the stats you've provided are from backtesting you did in the NQ. These do not necessarily transfer to the Bund, but you say that you have also backtested the Bund and found your setup to be profitable in the Bund as well. How did you construct your backtest? Did you also forward-test whatever plan you came up with? What stats do you have for the backtest and the forward-test? Since you're trading two different setups simultaneously, are you keeping separate stats for each? You say you "have nothing" in terms of stats, but surely you have stats from your backtesting and, if done, your forward-testing. As for trading the Bund for only 4 days, as soon as you've made two trades, you can begin keeping these stats. If you don't keep them, then you'll have no idea what progress you're making, if any, in reaching your objectives and goals. Db
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Here are examples of the sort of thing you ought to have on your screen pre-open. Regardless of whatever else you've done in terms of plotting TRs and SLs and DLs and so forth, tune in to what traders are up to and what buyers and sellers are able to accomplish. Note the swing points. If and when they start to line up, look for a TR. If you find one, locate its midpoint. As for the R at 2800, that's somewhat old and therefore soft. Focus on what traders are doing, not on exact levels. Traders do hover around 2800, but they're done with that long before the open. The rejection of 2800 is not dramatic, but there's no reason to believe that price will go back yet again to test it further. And even if it does, what are you out? A point? You can then short at a higher level. And if it doesn't, you're already in. A common problem -- the result of the nonsense that one reads in articles and books and message boards and so forth -- is a reluctance to do the obvious out of a fear that one is being manipulated by the so-called "big money". If this niggles away in the back of your mind, exorcise it. Judge the market by its own action, not by what you think "the players" are doing. What the players are doing is in the price action. If 97 seems too much like a Gimmee, take it anyway and keep your hand on the bar of the emergency exit. You have nothing to lose. Db
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So 71% of all the trades you've taken over the last 16 days have been winners with a 4.4% profit? Db
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Even though you made only a point, think of those people who DID do stupid things, like trying to go long all the way down. As for your plan, obviously you must include the micro (1m) as well as the macro in your pre-opening charts. I thought you were doing this since that's what I had done. But now you know to do that, so don't dwell on it. As for having a too-narrow focus, perhaps. But even if you were focused on TRs, you might have taken the subsequent ops to enter at 95 or 93, given that all of this was taking place at the upper limit of that 98 to 2800 TR. Now's the time to write down whatever was running through your head at the time before it all slips away. If it has already, write down what you can. Db
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Use both, keep your stats for each, then see after 3 mos. or so which one suits you better. As long as you have no money on the line, there's no hurry. I use what is freely available online for the Forum. That means 1m standard bar charts. I see no reason for anyone to spend big bucks on charting programs and datafeeds and so on before they know whether or not they're even interested in this, much less that they can do it profitably. Personally, I find the 1m interval too long, but it's more than sufficient for these purposes. Db
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You may be relaxing too much into the big picture. If you're going to continue posting these charts in this thread, include a 1m or at least 5m zoom-in and these levels will be more apparent. A 5m will take you back at least to the PDC without crowding things too much. Db
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That drop from 32 to 00 was pretty cool. Unfortunately, you'd have to have sat through a 90m sideways drift before price began to move again. Db
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No, your win:loss ratio, your profit:loss ratio, your maximum drawdown, your longest string of consecutive losses, etc. The sample size is not pertinent. Db
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What are your stats? Db
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If I may, the bottom of your box should moved up .20 and the top .10. But aside from that, I suggest that you're trying to apply the wrong strategy to the wrong instrument. If you're trying to trade RETs, REVs, and BOs, then whatever instrument you're trading ought to have at least some regard for S&R. This one has very little of that (the S&R has to be on the chart, not just in your head). In addition, the movements almost demand wide stops, and you don't have enough experience for that. You're going to be making a lot of trades, and few of them will be successful. I assume this is not consistent with your objectives. There is also the issue of the gaps and the trend/no-trend issue. Trying to trade this as one might trade the NQ will seem like trying to hit a housefly with a dart. I suggest that you look for something that doesn't try to screw around with you so much. Db
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The following is a line chart of what I posted earlier. Never forget that this is not about bars or candles; it's about price movement. Note here that there is no test-retest at 52. In fact, the "test-retest" at 53, while hardly visible on a bar chart, is detectable on the line chart. This is not particularly pertinent to the trade since the entry was taken on a much more clear-cut RET after a REV, but it's of interest nonetheless. Lurkers who don't know where the DL and SL should go or where the S&R are should ask and I'll repost the chart with same. Db