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DbPhoenix
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix
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Though I've addressed this in the Trend thread, today is fresh in everyone's mind, and it seems like a good time to remind those who'd like to add another tool to their belts that S&R can be used with SLs and DLs to stay in the trade longer than one might if he were to use SLs and DLs alone. Note that price does not exceed the LSH until A. However, that swing high found R at the previous swing low, not the previous swing high. When price reaches its peak -- B -- after A, it finds R at that same swing high. If that's confusing, just look at where price finds R at each swing high. Point is that if one has wrestled his fear to the ground and has confidence in the trade, he can cut price a little slack to see if and when it exceeds the LSH rather than cut and run as soon as it has broken the SL. Incidentally, notice where price ultimately found S. Db
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You Have Been Setup to Fail As a Trader!
DbPhoenix replied to PristineTrading's topic in The Markets
Neither volume nor price are indicators in the traditionally-accepted technical analysis definition of "indicator". Volume and price exist outside the trader. They require no settings. They require no calculations. They do not owe their existence to a formula. Price "indicates" that a transaction has taken place. Volume "indicates" how many. This does not make them "indicators" as the term is normally used by a trader. Db -
You Have Been Setup to Fail As a Trader!
DbPhoenix replied to PristineTrading's topic in The Markets
I've been hoping that someone would post one of these oscillators and explain how it/they would tell you what to do or not do in real time. Absent that, there's no advantage over a simple diagonal line, so why bother? Db -
Whether you know of any events in advance or not will not likely have any effect on your trading other than persuade you to do nothing or trade the wrong side. Consider all those who did just that this morning. You, on the other hand, just watched price and acted accordingly within the context of S&R. While others did nothing or lost money, you made money. Good for you. Consider as well that you were not tied up in knots during the process. Exactly. And don't forget that price could just as easily have plunged. Maybe it's time for you to begin trading (sim/paper) with a smaller bar interval. I haven't looked at this lately so I don't know what's the least expensive, but I'm sure there's some decent provide who'd let you simtrade for a small monthly fee. Db
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I suggest you uncheck the bid and ask and related "volumes" and look only at the last traded price and size along with the time. This will be most like the traditional tape. Just see how you like it. You may find that you're able to pick up on changes in speed and activity just as easily if not more so. If you're in your trades sooner, all the better. If not, then having the bid and ask may be necessary for you. Db
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Just out of curiosity, if anybody simtraded the short at 06, what was your fill when you exited the trade at the break of the SL? Db
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Congratulations, John. Db
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For example, using your chart, you'll note that the TL is violated so many times, it can hardly be relied upon as, in this case, R. But it does show trend, which is what it's supposed to do. S&R are found laterally. Db
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Actually, it only seems to. Whatever S or R it appears to provide is only coincidental. The job of TLs is to show trend. The jobs of SLs and DLs is to show the state of demand and supply. None of these provide S nor R. That is lateral. So let everything do its job and tell you what it knows. Don't ask it to do more. Db
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If volume remains high or becomes higher during the formation of a potential hinge OR if price fails to break out of the hinge before the endpoint is reached, the price action is much less likely to be what is expected of a typical hinge. Rather it becomes more similar to that found in a typical TR. Db
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What you're referring to isn't tape reading in the traditional sense. Actually, I don't know what you'd call it since the tape is comprised of trades. As such, bid and ask "volume" are irrelevant as they represent intent (unless they are completely fake), not completed transactions. If you wait to figure out what the "big guys" are doing, you will likely find that you are consistently late. This will, of course, cut into your profits. These comments apply as well to "the Book". With a little research, you'll find that those -- at least those who post -- who take their cues from "the Book" will regularly stand aside or enter trades in the wrong direction while those who post here are making money. This isn't intended to be snarky; it's just the way it is. Same goes for those who trade "the news". We ignore it and do quite well. The same can't always be said for those who take their cues from it. Db
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To All Members: The following is a summary of my exchanges with tupapa re his trading plan: Given the rather wide discrepancy between the RT results and the backtested results, there clearly are a number of problems here. Rather than my going into a lengthy explanation of them at this point, I suggest that members, in the spirit of aid and support, (a) read this exchange, examine these charts and what has been made available re a trading plan (see also below), determine what the problems are and (b) propose remedies for these problems. Those who do not possess the required level of altruism will find that these two tasks will be a worthwhile exercise, the process of which will be directly applicable to their own testing and trading plan formulation. As a context for structure, I suggest referring to the procedures for creating a trading plan which are outlined in the first post of this thread. FYI, the following was posted in the Log thread on 9/19: Db
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I'm posting this not to encourage hot-dogging but to point out that one can detect RETs on a 1m chart in RT that would probably go unnoticed by anyone viewing the chart only in hindsight. However, one must be watching price move and the bars form in order to pick up on this. The inset is from Tomerok's chart. It shows what's going on in that little hesitation shown in Gringo's chart. This is a legitimate springboard for a short entry. Db
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Why so late on 2 and 4? And why short at 5-7 since we're practically at S? This is good stuff. Db
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This is excellent work. You were quick to reverse your initial long, I hope because you saw that TR above the action. That you took the plunge in stride (so to speak) is a biggie. As for the rally off 96, there really wasn't any reason to expect a REV since there was no S there. However, if you were up to going long then reversing to a return to a short, that's great. Very nice. Treat yourself to something. Db
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It's up to you. I don't have much time to spend on this, so if you're in no hurry, I'll just leave things as they are. Db
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Since you quoted me, I assumed the question was directed to me. Gringo's not trading today. But speaking of learning, are we not re-examining your backtest any more? Db
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What is 575? Db .........
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And here we are at 94. Possible next stop: 88. Db
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Up to more serious R at that 12-19 TR. Db
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Looks like it's just us. I suggest that the air pocket bet 94 and 04 will be of interest. There's really nothing to stop a move down. 08 appears to be acting as R. We'll see. Db
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Not much. Not that I have anything against him. I'm sure he's sincere. But the work is unnecessarily complicated. Way. Since I haven't read every book on PA, and don't care to, I can't say that no one treats it with the simplicity that Wyckoff does, but that certainly seems to be the case. I see little to be gained by turning one's back on indicators and pooh-poohing that whole effort, then making PA itself into a collection of indicators through bar intervals, candles, patterns, a whole new lexicon of jargon, lists of rules, long series of if:then statements, the end result of which is that one stops looking at price and focuses on what is being used to illustrate it. If one is going to go that far, why not just slap a MACD and a stochastic on the chart and be done with it? If one is watching price movement and begins to wonder if that movement is beginning to meet the requirements of a particular pattern or if a particular candle is beginning to exhibit the characteristics of a particular candle type, he has already drifted off into Indicator Land and is no longer focusing on trader behavior. He may even be waiting for the bar/candle to "close", which is a sure sign that you're talking about something other than price action. Wyckoff is about the continuous flow of price, the course of which is determined by the shifting balance between demand and supply, or, if one prefers, the desires of buyers and sellers. Once one departs from that, he's no longer trading price, he's trading proxies of price. Db
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Well it's about damn time. You've been lurking for months If you're comfortable with all this, you can cut yourself a little slack and wait to see if price rallies above the LSH. If it doesn't, as here, you can avoid the whole exit-re-enter thing. But all you save is a commission, so you might feel better and stand aside while price does whatever it's going to do. Clearly you've been paying attention. Welcome. Db
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Is There a Strategy Wins 90%
DbPhoenix replied to Jack Francisco's topic in Swing Trading and Position Trading
The question, though, had nothing to do with profits but with win rate. Whether or not it should also address profits is another issue. Depends on the plan and the basis for the plan. As do I. Sorry for responding to the OP. I should have known better . Db -
You did not trade incorrectly at the open. But once you were SO of both short and long trades, you should have stopped, since this is an even faster indication of a coming trading range than a lower high and higher low. You've probably noticed by now that once we begin trading for real, our focus turns laser-like toward our trade and its course, ignoring everything else that's happening around us. If you're going to succeed, you have to get over this. If you can't, then take a break from RT trading and go back to studying price movement, in RT, instead. If nothing else, it will help clear your mind. As for the hinge, shame on you . You got faked out on both sides, and you know better. Never buy/short a BO from a hinge; buy/short the RET. That at least would have saved you two trades and might have freed you to note that traders were creating a support level at 78. This, if you'll recall, is an excellent example of The Dog That Didn't Bark. If price were going to fall, it would have. But it didn't. So that leaves two outcomes: sideways or up. Same thing when price began banging against the 88 door for 15 minutes. It wasn't falling, so..... Don't forget that S&R are zones, not rigid, inflexible lines. If the lines are an issue, bring them only to 0930 and leave what comes in the clear. You can always scroll back to see where you had drawn your lines, but the action in front of you will be line-free. This may help you see when traders are creating unexpected S&R levels or TRs. Db