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DbPhoenix

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix

  1. DbPhoenix
    No, the fact that it held at 10 then broke the SL at 14. Note how $ reacted at 10. Db
  2. DbPhoenix
    And here we are at top R. Db
  3. DbPhoenix
    Some may not have traded that "REV" as a RET due to the proximity of R at 16. But that shouldn't stop you. The fact that price returned there suggests that the R wasn't as strong as supposed. So the proximity of it shouldn't stop the long trader from giving it a shot. If it doesn't work, go back into REV mode. Db
  4. DbPhoenix
    Already winding down. With a range this narrow, there aren't going to be many RETs on a 1m bar interval. Db
  5. DbPhoenix
    May be a RET inst of a REV. Db
  6. DbPhoenix
    Can't post fast enuf. Int R at 16, then 18, 22, 24. However, REV at 16. Db
  7. DbPhoenix
    So is it a RET in a downmove or a HL in a reversal? Db
  8. DbPhoenix
    I missed it. Once you have 10 posts, I won't have to approve these anymore. Db
  9. DbPhoenix
    Then 2. Db ..................
  10. DbPhoenix
    Here's the first level of S. If it continues down, next is 14, then 10, then 8. Db
  11. DbPhoenix
    I rarely say so because most people who take this seriously figure it out on their own, but a thorough backtest ought to cover at least a year. The comfort level that a trader attains by having backtested all market conditions is impossible to reach any other way. August does not trade like November does not trade like March does not trade like June. A couple of weeks, needless to say, just doesn't cut it. Those who try to get away with the minimum end up changing their trading plans to accommodate every curve ball that the market throws their way. In a few months, they have a real mess on their hands, so many rules that they wind up unable to act at all. A thoroughly-backtested trading plan will cover the vast majority of contingencies. The market can and will come up with completely unexpected behaviors, but the trader who has backtested a year's worth of contingencies will recognize the unexpected for what it is and either stand aside or try to make the best of it. He will not alter his trading plan to accommodate something that may never reoccur. There is also the forward test, which too many beginners skip, thinking that RT trading is pretty much the same thing and will accomplish the same objective. It isn't and it doesn't. Those who skip it will experience far more failures in RT trading and end up having to rewrite their plans again and again, which they will likely do rather than go through the backtesting again, which is what they ought to do instead. The process created in the first post was not created casually. Every step has its purpose. Those who take shortcuts will take far more time becoming a profitable trader -- if they ever do become a profitable trader -- than they would have had they gone through the process as outlined. This is not directed toward anyone in particular. I don't know how extensive or thorough any of your backtests were. But I see a lot of re-examination of plans and even re-writing of same, and much of this may be unnecessary, unless of course the backtest was given short shrift. If that's the case, I suggest further backtesting, not re-writing plans every time the market comes up with something new and unanticipated. Db
  12. DbPhoenix
    You guys are being a bit too hard on yourselves. Don't forget that reports messed up what might otherwise have been normal trading days. Today, for example, price found R where I thought it would (as posted) and provided a nice short. But before it could get to 88, a jobs report was released. This prompted a V reversal, which are not easy for the prudent trader to catch. Even so, price made a double top at 08 and provided another decent short. And then it was 1100. So stick with S/R and try not to surf. The surfing always looks good in hindsight but rarely works out in RT. And don't diminish the importance of those little pre-open TRs. Today, for example, the first rally at 0940 reached the bottom of the pre-open TR. The next rally at 0951 came to exactly the same point. Ditto with the third rally at 1000. Yes, the second and third rallies were stronger than expected. But they all hit the wall at the same level. This made them good shorts anyway. Note also that the ease and speed of the reversal was likely due largely to those who shorted the initial negative reaction and quickly had to cover when $ turned against them. Takes a lot of equanimity to trade something like that. Anyone who tried to do so and escaped without a loss should be congratulated. Db
  13. DbPhoenix
    No. Db ...................
  14. DbPhoenix
    Note here that $ is finding R at the PDH, which is also the midpt of the little pre-open TR on the 1st. Db
  15. DbPhoenix
    You may not want to exit at that exact bar, but when price shows no inclination to continue downward for several minutes, you could exit on any higher high. Or just exit and bank the money. If you're trading real money, probably the latter. Then simtrade a second contract. Db
  16. DbPhoenix
    I meant to address this yesterday, but got distracted. Whether or not the test is slightly lower is not as important as how traders react to it. If price pokes a little lower and price rebounds fast and hard, you can assume there's serious interest there in reversing the direction. That may or may not be enough for you to go ahead and try the trade. Db
  17. DbPhoenix
    Keep an eye on 88 to 04. Db
  18. DbPhoenix
    I believe you all charted that narrow TR bet 87 and 89 from early this morning, but I don't recall anyone giving it any importance. Note that price rallies out of it, then retests it 40m later. This suggests that it's worth paying attention to if tested again. Focus one eye on the price and the other eye on the left of your chart I'm also picking up on a tendency to seek more confirmation after you've had a couple of failures. This is understandable, but the trades don't necessarily have anything to do with each other. Eventually you'll be able to withstand the negativity of a losing trade or two and apply the same risk tolerance to subsequent trades. Db
  19. DbPhoenix
    By "test", are you referring to 2789? Db
  20. DbPhoenix
    So, looking back on this, what did you miss? What should you have done? Db
  21. DbPhoenix
    So does the OP. Re-read his second and third paragraphs. Db
  22. DbPhoenix
    This position, however, is one of the chief criticisms of vendors, that they claim something is true without backing it up. Critics should be held to the same standard. None of this, however, is pertinent to the subject of the thread. The OP is addressing the usefulness/necessity of oscillators in trending markets, particularly with regard to the notions of overbought and oversold. You're the only participant to post a chart showing their potential usefulness. Whether or not they are in fact useful in real time, much less necessary, is another matter, and there are dozens of other threads that address this issue. Db
  23. DbPhoenix
    Since I've asked for chart examples, I ought to provide one. The black area encircles the timeframe used in BH's chart. Limiting oneself to that, a suggested entry is provided (the hinge is noted for those who know what it is; it is similar to a coil). There is no exit or further entry until the trend "ends", at the break of the demand line. The one earlier break of the demand line in March could be a prompt for an exit, but one could re-enter immediately thereafter and continue riding the trend. Db
  24. DbPhoenix
    I don't pull up a chart and look at this myself because I'm interested in how those who claim that oscillators work so well in RT use them. It's one thing to say OSCILLATORS WORK and another to apply one to a chart and show how it would work. I wasn't uninterested, but it wasn't RT, nor was it a Wyckoff trade, so I saw no reason to pursue it. Or one could simply apply a demand line and make one entry at the beginning and one exit at the end. Without knowing the exact entries and exits using the oscillator, and the commission schedule, it's impossible to say which would the more profitable. But the once in-once out (without considering pyramiding) would be close to being as profitable and would carry only one commission. So what's the point of all that trading? I don't see indicators as being the work of the devil. I just don't see the value of them. Db
  25. DbPhoenix
    Much of this decision depends on "activity" and "pace". However, there is little to no downside to exiting as usual and re-entering. One can, in fact, make a little extra by going over the same ground a second time with a new trade. Depends on how "involved" one wants to be. Db
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