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DbPhoenix

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix

  1. DbPhoenix
    This chart requires a couple of modifications:
  2. DbPhoenix
    That's what Wyckoff called it. And it's easier to search for. But pretty much the same thing. Db
  3. DbPhoenix
    http://www.stonekettle.com/2012/10/gravity-is-bitch.html
  4. DbPhoenix
    Saw your add-on above. Sounds like a plan. However, if the 90 days are consecutive, keep in mind that whatever you learn may apply only to that timeframe. If your results are encouraging, select days at random from the past year once you have the tick data, whether by accumulation or by downloading it from somewhere (if there's a user forum for your feed/program/whatever, somebody there might have the data you need; it's just a matter of uploading the file to you). If the results still look promising, you can be more confident that the setup applies to all the annual cycles. I've also altered your chart somewhat to show both your failed thrust and the WTF setup. This isn't the thread for it since these setups can't be seen in advance. But what the hell. Db
  5. DbPhoenix
    That's okay; I understood what you meant. Fortunately, your chart shows both the failed thrust and the WTF, each with volume (which is useful now and then). A keeper. Db
  6. DbPhoenix
    It's a failed thrust, the opposite of a failed shakeout. You can Ctrl+F both in the course for more examples. Your chart also includes the WTF entry just after 16:06 on your chart. Note the volume. The volume is essential to this particular setup. BTW, re your notes on your chart, be careful of the "would have". This is how people get into curve-fitting and begin a long and slippery slope to ruin. You say you've been playing with it. Back- and forwardtest it. Maintain a record of stats. See what works and what doesn't. Then try it in real time. What looks good in hindsight doesn't always look so good in real time. Db
  7. DbPhoenix
    Won't do you any good. In this case, the word's too short. So this particular setup will be the Wyckoff Forum's little secret. Db
  8. DbPhoenix
    Click here. Db ................
  9. DbPhoenix
    That's a good example of a WTF entry. Note also the R at the LOD during the RET. Db
  10. DbPhoenix
    Don't overlook the fact that jobless claims have thrown a monkey wrench into the works. Db
  11. DbPhoenix
    This is quite a mess. Unless price makes an attempt to fill that airpocket to 67, you may want to just watch today. Db
  12. DbPhoenix
    No, if supply gains the upper hand at a given point or level, then it is overwhelming demand. In other words, resistance. No, they have nothing to do with prediction. Yes, predicting price behavior and predicting the levels at which we need to pay close attention to price behavior in real time are two different things. Trying to predict price behavior is a rather fruitless enterprise (just watch the on-site vendors). In order to avoid hijacking this thread further, though, I'll point out that I have threads on trends, trading ranges, and support and resistance. Those who are interested can investigate them. Those who aren't needn't suffer through unasked-for edification. Db
  13. DbPhoenix
    As I've said many times, trendlines and supply/demand lines have jobs to do and they do them well, the job of the first being to show the existence and direction and slope of trend -- if there is one -- and the jobs of the latter to show those points at which demand or supply gains the upper hand. But I also point out that the jobs of each have nothing to do with support or resistance. They do their jobs well, but nothing more. I don't use MAs because they have no purpose. If one can't tell whether price is moving up or down or sideways without an MA, he should find some other line of work. Db
  14. DbPhoenix
    Perhaps people here have a hard time with these premises because they've been through all this before, as have many thousands before them, groping down the same deadends, spending year after year looking for that special line or set of lines that will provide the key. It's all very seductive, the idea that all one has to do is wait for the red line to cross the blue line and he will have his ticket. But it just doesn't work that way. If you're making a good living out of trading off MAs, great. If you're not, but you've thoroughly defined and backtested and forwardtested your premise and the stats from your realtime trading are consistent with those from your back- and forwardtesting, then by all means pursue it. But if none of this reflects your reality, I suggest you save yourself five years and begin looking at exactly why price trends, why it ranges, why it goes up and down. Granted these questions are so simple they seem almost insulting. Yet few traders can provide an explanation that isn't intended to sell somebody something. Or, like most traders, you can continue to throw virgins into the volcano. That, in its own way, can also be fun. Db
  15. DbPhoenix
    Amazing, considering my age Db
  16. DbPhoenix
    We still may not be answering the OP's question, but consider that there are at least a half dozen ways of determining pivot levels alone. Multiply that by every other possible line and band and channel and indicator with all possible settings and intervals and throw in "the book" and the impossibility of staying on top of whatever everybody else is "looking at" becomes clear. Here is an example of a typical trader's chart, believe it or not. Here is the exact same chart, "naked": Now who's going to be quickest to jump on this trend? Db
  17. DbPhoenix
    Your question had to do with S&R levels, not with making money. There are people who make money off of MACD and stochastics. But, again, that wasn't your question. You say that people are inconsistent in drawing/calculating MAs, support levels, trendlines, etc. That is only one reason why lines and circles and boxes and whatever drawn by the trader aren't going to be satisfactory when trying to determine support and resistance. Support is provided when buyers have what is required to retard the downward movement of price, stop it, and reverse its course. The opposite is true for resistance. None of this has anything to do with a line. As for coping with all the dozens of things that traders might have plotted on their charts, you don't. You ignore it. You follow what's happening with price and act accordingly. And you will likely be farther ahead of the pack in doing so as you will be acting while they're still surveying their lines and indicators. Db
  18. DbPhoenix
    Given the many ways in which a trendline can be drawn, it's hardly precise. And given that it provides neither support nor resistance, there's no particular reason for buyers or sellers to "step in". As for MAs being based on historical data, so are trendlines; otherwise, there wouldn't be anything on which to draw them. And there is of course the matter of MAs being moving trendlines, since they both perform the same function. As for being of help in distinguishing between a trending and ranging market early in the session, the utility of either is questionable since it takes so long to determine whether the market is going to move in one way or the other. Trendlines and MAs are perhaps of more use as exit signals at the level of trend change rather than as entry signals. Or one may just note whether or not price has stopped going up. Or down. Db
  19. DbPhoenix
    How much backtesting have you done of this setup to determine whether or not it's valid, i.e., how many days over how many months over how many quarters? Db
  20. DbPhoenix
    The DT at 38 a few minutes ago was the "textbook" entry. Perhaps a RET here. Db
  21. DbPhoenix
    Since this is about S&R, first get rid of all the lines and bands and channels and moving averages and whatever else. Then find those areas where price has reversed and/or where price has changed from trending to ranging or vice-versa. There you will begin to find the S&R that matter. Everything else is in your head, and the market doesn't care what's in your head. Db
  22. DbPhoenix
    It appears that Beggs makes the same mistake that Brooks does, but I'm not going to spend $197 to find out. In any case, all of this stuff is drawn from Wyckoff, and the Wyckoff course is free. And a hell of a lot shorter if you take the Wyckoff Lite route. Db
  23. DbPhoenix
    Looks like you were right about 30. Way to go. Db
  24. DbPhoenix
    It's more appropriate to the Wyckoff approach. But what is better is whatever makes you the most money. And that may be a strategy based on TLs. Never forget, however, to distinguish between what's in the market and what's in your mind. Price action is in the market. You have no control over it. It will range or not. It will double-top or not. All you can do is watch. Whatever you draw on your chart, however, is in your head. The market doesn't know about it and couldn't care less. All it cares about is what it's done itself: where it's been and how it got there. It will reach a price that it just reached a few minutes ago and buyers will not be able to push it past that price, regardless of what you think about it. You may draw a line across that price level to give you a point of departure, but the market doesn't know and doesn't care. What matters is not that price can't get past your line but that buyers can't push price past the previous high. It's not the line that matters. Some other trader might draw some other line. But whatever line this or that trader might draw, it's traders' behavior that moves price. If traders can't advance price, then you have a potential short, regardless of what you have or haven't drawn on your chart. Db
  25. DbPhoenix
    Traders off to lunch. Whoever is left behind is turning this into an area of S. Who knows? May have left the computers on standby until lunch is over. Db
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