DbPhoenix

What clues are you using to determine that a reversal setup is even in the cards? Db

Why not re-enter the short at your first LH, at 15:26? There is no previously-determined support level here. Db

Question regarding your 1m chart: If you were to enter at the point designated by your green dot, you would I hope exit as soon as it becomes clear that buyers have fumbled the ball and price resumes its downward track. What then? Db

Even though interday trendlines are of little to no importance to the intraday trader, prior trading ranges can and should be. Here, for example, though one might be tempted to consider the influence of the June-July trading range to have expired, the October and December trading ranges revolved around the top of that earlier trading range like pigs on a spit. Given also that price could not hold above the 50% retracement of the last downmove (the green level) despite multiple attempts suggests further downside, and given that that June-July trading range appears still to be exerting an influence on present price movement (not unlike a moon), 2580 becomes a level of interest. Sometimes, however, price will find support in unexpected places, as yesterday during the lunch hour. Interested students should study that plunge and recovery so that they might recognize it the next time it occurs (see yesterday's post in the Hinges thread).

While we are discussing and demanding what to do, may I respectfully ask that we stop and take a look at what I believe are the three extenuating factors that may answer the question of why we Americans have more violence than most anyone else: 1. POVERTY. If there's one thing that separates us from the rest of the developed world, it's this. 50 million of our people live in poverty. One in five Americans goes hungry at some point during the year. The majority of those who aren't poor are living from paycheck to paycheck. There's no doubt this creates more crime. Middle class jobs prevent crime and violence. (If you don't believe that, ask yourself this: If your neighbor has a job and is making $50,000/year, what are the chances he's going to break into your home, shoot you and take your TV? Nil.) 2. FEAR/RACISM. We're an awfully fearful country considering that, unlike most nations, we've never been invaded. (No, 1812 wasn't an invasion. We started it.) Why on earth would we need 300 million guns in our homes? I get why the Russians might be a little spooked (over 20 million of them died in World War II). But what's our excuse? Worried that the Indians from the casino may go on the warpath? Concerned that the Canadians seem to be amassing too many Tim Horton's donut shops on both sides of the border? No. It's because too many white people are afraid of black people. Period. The vast majority of the guns in the U.S. are sold to white people who live in the suburbs or the country. When we fantasize about being mugged or home invaded, what's the image of the perpetrator in our heads? Is it the freckled-face kid from down the street -- or is it someone who is, if not black, at least poor? I think it would be worth it to a) do our best to eradicate poverty and re-create the middle class we used to have, and b) stop promoting the image of the black man as the boogeyman out to hurt you. Calm down, white people, and put away your guns. 3. THE "ME" SOCIETY. I think it's the every-man-for-himself ethos of this country that has put us in this mess and I believe it's been our undoing. Pull yourself up by your bootstraps! You're not my problem! This is mine! Clearly, we are no longer our brother's and sister's keeper. You get sick and can't afford the operation? Not my problem. The bank has foreclosed on your home? Not my problem. Can't afford to go to college? Not my problem. And yet, it all sooner or later becomes our problem, doesn't it? Take away too many safety nets and everyone starts to feel the impact. Do you want to live in that kind of society, one where you will then have a legitimate reason to be in fear? I don't. I'm not saying it's perfect anywhere else, but I have noticed, in my travels, that other civilized countries see a national benefit to taking care of each other. Free medical care, free or low-cost college, mental health help. And I wonder -- why can't we do that? I think it's because in many other countries people see each other not as separate and alone but rather together, on the path of life, with each person existing as an integral part of the whole. And you help them when they're in need, not punish them because they've had some misfortune or bad break. I have to believe one of the reasons gun murders in other countries are so rare is because there's less of the lone wolf mentality amongst their citizens. Most are raised with a sense of connection, if not outright solidarity. And that makes it harder to kill one another. Michael Moore

All correct, though the hindsight part is irrelevant. Even if the test had been only a single bounce, it's still a tradeable reversal. The hinge is just a confirming factor. Incidentally, an example of the phenomenon you're referring to occurs a couple of hours later, at 12:44, just after price bounces off 2596. Db

An unnerving number of people swerve in order to kill small animals when driving, according to the findings of a student at South Carolina’s Clemson University. As the AP reported, Nathan Weaver, 22, inadvertently witnessed the sadism in action when he placed rubber turtles on a busy road and observed as part of a project intended to help box turtles — a species in the decline — to safely cross the road. One in 50 cars purposefully aimed to kill the fake creature — which, Weaver noted, is a significant number given that a real turtle can take around 10 minutes to cross the street. “This was a bit shocking,” said the student. According to the AP, Weaver’s observations align with a study by Western Carolina University psychology professor Hal Herzog, who found that 34 people out of his class of 100 had intentionally run over a turtle or been in a car with someone who had at some point. Two-thirds of those who admitted this were male. “They aren’t thinking, really. It is not something people think about. It just seems fun at the time,” Herzog said. “It is the dark side of human nature.” Natasha Lennard

How are you defining "valid entry"? Db

Two more hinges this morning (another was posted in the TIF thread yesterday). The first forms after the open, and when price falls out of it, price RETs to its midpoint before resuming the move down. Price then reaches the bottom of the TR, then hesitates. At this point, one can wait for a reversal signal to go long, or stay short. Price takes its time but eventually forms another hinge at this level, from which it exits to the upside. Simple, straightforward.

This will serve both as a Trading In Foresight post and as an illustration of hinges, the daily posted prior to the open and the 5m drawn after the open. Those who have read the Hinges thread will recognize that the entry was just below 50, the RET after the exit from the hinge. Expected target 20+/-. Edit: Supply lines leading to another hinge. Further edit: Price comes within two pts of expected target, then trend reverses.

Since this is a day dedicated to peace, here are some sources for those of you interested in facts and data and stuff: • Gun homicides and gun ownership listed by country (Guardian) • Harvard Injury Control Research Center says results are clear: more guns = more homicide. • 12 Facts About Guns in the U.S. (Washington Post) • The gun control that works (Economist) • A Land Without Guns: How Japan Has Virtually Eliminated Shooting Deaths (The Atlantic) • Battleground America: The United States of Guns (New Yorker) • Six facts about guns, violence, and gun control (Washington Post) • The money behind the Newtown massacre (Fortune) • The Geography of U.S. Gun Violence: Gun deaths correlate to per capita gun ownership (The Atlantic) • Fifteen things to know about Australia’s incredibly effective gun clampdown (Quartz) • Pro Publica also reviews The Best Reporting on Guns in America Barry Ritholtz

You'd have to go back more than 20 years. More like 70, to Brown v Board of Education, though one could go back even farther. The 50s were in many ways the first stirrings of empowerment paired with an increasing sense of disenfranchisement. Trace that forward into the 60s and 70s and dovetail it with the efforts of the wealthy to diminish the power of the middle class (which continue today so aggressively, obviously, and shamelessly). By the 80s, the current situation was more or less cemented in place. Db

Note that the purpose of my post was not to argue for the use of trendlines but to point out the illogicality of preferring MAs over trendlines since they are essentially the same thing. If one does not understand what a trendline does nor what a moving average does, neither will be of much benefit. What Paul does or what any "pro" trader does is generally irrelevant to what the retail trader should do since the circumstances are entirely different. What matters more is whether or not the trader can understand what he's looking at without applying anything at all to the display. Db

...Better yet, what if the school was ringed with a minefield? Yeah. And concertina wire. What if we mounted .50Cal machine guns in turrets at each corner of the playground and manned them with experienced combat Marines? Maybe a tank guarding the parking lot? A couple of TOW launchers on the roof and the crossing guards equipped with illuminators ready to laze anybody who looks suspicious. And we’ll probably need a Patriot battery on the front lawn, you never know when some deranged lunatic will hijack a jetliner and try to fly it into fourth period algebra. How long do you suppose it will be before we start referring to the schools as “Camp Liberty?” You don’t sign your kids up for school, no, they enlist. And of course, there’s the religious schools – when they say onward Christian soldiers, they ain’t kidding, folks. Instead of Wal-Mart, you’ll shop for school supplies at Sportsman’s Warehouse. Hell, why stop there? What if we tagged all guns and gun owners in the country with RFID chips that could be read from orbiting satellites and when they get too close to a school, or a restaurant, or a Safeway, or a movie theater, the CIA could unleash a Hellfire missile from a loitering Global Hawk and vaporize the bastard in the gun shop parking lot? more

Clearly you didn't click the link. Why am I not surprised? Db

Wayne LaPierre Wants Armed Guards at Schools. Columbine Had an Armed Guard. You probably don't remember the name of Neil Gardner, a sherriff's deputy in Jefferson County, Colorado. He was the armed guard assigned to watch Columbine High School, who usually ate lunch with the students, so he could be in the school.

At the beginning of the thread, he was from San Francisco. Shenanigans? Db

I like what you're doing here, or trying to do. But I would like to make/reiterate one small (?) point. TA does not "work". Candles don't "work". Nor do indicators. Nor does the *** Method/Approach. What all of these do do is provide information. The loser, however, does not know what to do with this information. He is likely not even aware of it. In the case of candles, he will focus with laser-like precision on the "pattern" and whether or not it fits predetermined criteria and pay no attention whatsoever to the trader behavior that formed the pattern in the first place. If he did, he would know what to do with it, or as a result of it. But he doesn't. So he follows the drill he read in the book/whatever and he loses. And since he has no idea why ("whuh?"), he returns to his book/whatever and studies his patterns some more. There should be some hint of this in the fact that candle "patterns" disappear when the interval is changed. But rather than find his Aha! moment, the loser will instead decide that the only interval to trade is the 5m (or 15m or 60m or whatever) and disregard or view with derision all other intervals and become what amounts to a liquidity well. Db

You're much too young to be as fearful and cynical as you are. Db

I don't know anyone who could get through the day without two or three juicy rationalizations. They're more important than sex. The Big Chill

No more crazy than how the sheeple are molded by the conservative media just to pass their agenda. Db

You mean like the guy in Newtown who stole his mother's guns and shot her in the head four times? No respect at all. Db