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DbPhoenix

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix

  1. DbPhoenix
    1. Develop a thoroughly-tested consistently-profitable trading plan. 2. Follow it.
  2. DbPhoenix
    If you trade smaller and smaller intervals and shorter and shorter timeframes, you will eventually end up trading for ticks unless you also trade off major support and resistance lines and zones. Keep in mind also that you are focusing on what is essentially a continuation pattern. If you don't focus on one of the three major strategies, you may feel "safer", but your profits will likely suffer. Here you begin with a reversal and lower high at 2748. You may not be there to trade it, but it is there nonetheless. The hinge forms later, as a continuation of the move downward. Again, you may not be there to trade it, but it's there. Price then retraces the the midpoint of the hinge. If you don't catch that, there's a springboard at 2720. You trade at the market's pleasure, not the reverse. If you're not there to trade the opportunities presented to you, then you must either be satisfied with the crumbs made available by scalping or wait until price reaches a major S/R level or zone and trade off that. A tick chart may provide you with a superior entry off a major S/R level, but it will only lead you into multiple blind alleys if its general movement is aimless, as it will be if there are no major S/R levels nearby.
  3. DbPhoenix
    How does one put a thread on Ignore?
  4. DbPhoenix
    Interesting that the trend line in the NQ coincides with the midpoint of the rally off 2700.
  5. DbPhoenix
    It was until a year ago. Now it's in a trading range. Recent weeks are important if one went short in October, or, at the latest, November. At this point, price could just as easily rally as continue the decline to the bottom of the range.
  6. DbPhoenix
    Actually it's a "downtrend" only within the context of the trading range it's been in for over a year. Which is why holding is not necessarily appropriate. Instead, trade the range. See this post.
  7. DbPhoenix
    Look familiar? (If not, see the Springboards/Hinges thread.)
  8. DbPhoenix
    Reading a lot of hair-pulling and rending of garments over gold and its imminent collapse. But so far it's done nothing but bounce back and forth in a trading range. Anyone long before gold entered this range and who knows nothing about trading ranges might be gnashing his teeth and tossing and turning at night. But the knowledgeable trader would be long off support and short off resistance, thus keeping him in an already-profitable position should gold drop out of the bottom of this trading range. Note: this post/thread will be moved to the Auction Market Theory thread when it has served its purpose (a few days, probably).
  9. DbPhoenix
    Now that the "trend" is obvious, it's done. However, in the overall picture of the last two weeks, we are back where we started, having gone more or less nowhere. Will we form a trading range here? Or break out to the upside? As usual, a test of R suggests a short, a BO and RET to the upside demands a long. Stay tuned.
  10. DbPhoenix
    Though we don't use indicators, this is done nearly every day in the Wyckoff Forum: Trading in Foresight.
  11. DbPhoenix
    Making that distinction is part of what creating a plan is all about. If your plan doesn't address that, then it's inadequate, which is one reason why you don't follow it. Stop placement and management must also be part of the plan. If they aren't, then the plan is even more inadequate. You can't follow a plan that doesn't exist.
  12. DbPhoenix
    Before moving on from this, I don't want to leave the impression that I'm including Siuya in my remarks above. Even the best of traders do careless things. Sometimes even stupid things. This does not make them careless, stupid traders. One might argue here that Siuya should not have taken the trade in the first place if he knew that he could not monitor it. But then one might argue that Siuya should not trade at all unless he is willing to go without sleep. After all, there is always a trade somewhere that is being missed. None of which has anything to do with having -- or not having -- a thoroughly-tested, consistently-profitable trading plan. Without one, all the rules in the world will not provide rescue.
  13. DbPhoenix
    In a word, no. Not everyone who trades wants to make money, much less make a living at it. Most would be better off going to the track. At least they'd get some sun.
  14. DbPhoenix
    Or the lack of a trading plan . . .
  15. DbPhoenix
    Well that worked out nicely:
  16. DbPhoenix
    Now that we have a higher high, we can drawn a new trend channel:
  17. DbPhoenix
    I don't have any religious objections to it, but my point was that it can be of use during RT trading, and the ZZ is a hindsight tool. In order to get anything out of it re RT trading, one must compare what is forming to what was formed in the immediately preceding wave. Secondarily but also important is the overall context of buying and selling waves, and the ZZ may be of use there. Db
  18. DbPhoenix
    Though I and others have provided plenty of wave charts, they tend to play a secondary role in day-to-day posts, even though they are particularly useful when one feels as though he's lost his way in the up-and-down and is no longer sure whether he should be trading to the long side or the short. Waves are particularly good in real time for regaining one's bearings. Regardless of support, resistance, midpoints, trend and all the rest of it, waves are a reality check. If the selling waves are longer than the buying waves, then the pressure is down. If the buying waves are longer than the selling waves, then the pressure is up. If they are equal, or equivalent, you have a stalemate. These need not necessarily be maintained on the chart. However, one should be able to eyeball them at all times. If he can't, then they should be drawn.
  19. DbPhoenix
    Well, the "rally" failed even as I was posting the above. Should have waited five minutes. And no gap over the weekend. So the short's still on, and we're at marginal S. The uber fact is that we failed to get past the midpoint of the range. If the short were exited, there may be an opportunity to re-enter very soon (I was going to say "shortly", but . . .). However, one mustn't lose sight of the fact that the top of the most recent trading range is at 2700+/-. Db
  20. DbPhoenix
    Or follow the buying and selling waves: Note that the balance between the two suddenly shifts at the top. This is followed by a lower low and a lower high. That, if you like, can be your short signal. A retracement may only be a matter of degree. Db
  21. DbPhoenix
    I suggest you not confuse definition with mechanization. Since you're trying to do all of this while trading, it is not unexpected that you would focus on entry criteria rather than on the behavior of price. That's why trying to do this while trading usually prolongs the process. As to Friday's trade, I suggest you look at the waves and forget about demand/supply lines for the moment. If you do so, you'll find that you have a re-test of sorts immediately after the high point. This sort of re-test may be all you can expect on a tick chart. Db
  22. DbPhoenix
    So you have no problem with having missed yesterday's trade? Db
  23. DbPhoenix
    You have several subsequent tests and could enter on any one of them. If your objective is to find some way of entering V reversals, that is a separate setup. Db
  24. DbPhoenix
    This has less to do with definition and more with your tolerance for and acceptance of risk. Given the establishment of the importance of the 145.25 area by that November trading range, buying the test of it at 10:38 should not be much of a leap. If one takes it, though, he must also accept the possibility that he will have to face multiple stopouts and multiple re-entries if he wants a tight stop. Here, a stop just below 145.26 would be sufficient. Otherwise, one would have to re-enter at least three times. If a trader is going to consider being stopped out a failure on his part, he should not take the trade at all. If instead he's going to view being stopped out as information (what after all is the implication of being stopped out) that he can use to make a subsequent trade, he should go ahead with it. Db
  25. DbPhoenix
    Go to the Nasdaq and S&P websites.
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