DbPhoenix

Or a RET after a break below S. It is common for beginners to think that price will plummet/rocket as soon as they transmit their order. Which of course it doesn't. There must be other reasons. It's up to the trader to determine what those reasons are and whether or not they are present. In any case, he's just along for the ride.

Watching the Couples Go By Why is this basic woman so valuable to this basic man whose arm she holds? By Herbert Stein|Posted Thursday, Feb. 14, 2013, at 7:53 AM ET Couple walking at alley in night lights. Photo by Vladimir Nikulin/iStockphoto/Thinkstock In honor of Valentine’s, we reprint a favorite from the archive: this classic meditation on love and human companionship. Herbert Stein, who passed away in 1999, was an original Slate contributor. One of my persistent fantasies used to be of sitting at a sidewalk table at a cafe in Paris. I would be writing with my pen (la plume de ma tante) in a notebook (un cahier) while smoking a Gauloise. I would not be writing economics. One cannot write economics while sitting at a sidewalk cafe. Maybe that is why there have been so few distinguished French economists. I would be writing a novel, or perhaps poetry, or even a philosophical treatise. But I would frequently raise my eyes to watch the girls (les filles) go by. I no longer have that fantasy. I do, however, eat from time to time at an outdoor table in front of a small restaurant on the street leading to the Kennedy Center. I don't try to write there. I can't write with la plume de ma tante. I am addicted to the word processor. I suppose I could use a laptop computer. But that mechanism would destroy the romantic illusion. Instead, I watch the passers-by. I am not concentrating on the girls. I am concentrating on the married couples. How do I know that those men and women walking two-by-two up to the Kennedy Center are married to each other? Well, 75 percent of all men between the ages of 30 and 75 are married, so if you see a man in that age group walking with a woman to the Kennedy Center--which is not exactly Club Med—it's a good bet that the two are married, and almost certainly to each other. I look particularly at the women in those couples. They are not glamorous. There are no Marlene Dietrichs, Marilyn Monroes, or Vivien Leighs among them. (It is a sign of my age that I can't think of the name of a single living glamorous movie actress.) Some of them are pretty, but many would be considered plain. Since they are on their way to the Kennedy Center, presumably to attend a play, an opera, or a concert, one may assume that they are somewhat above average in cultural literacy. But in other respects one must assume that they are, like most people, average. But to the man whose hand or arm she is holding, she is not "average." She is the whole world to him. They may argue occasionally, or even frequently. He may have an eye for the cute intern in his office. But that is superficial. Fundamentally, she is the most valuable thing in his life. Genesis says, "And the Lord God said: 'It is not good that the man should be alone; I will make him a help meet for him.' " And so, "made He a woman." It doesn't say that He made a pretty woman, or a witty woman, or an any-kind-of-adjective woman. He made the basic woman. Why is this basic woman so valuable to the man whose hand or arm she is holding as I see them making their way up to the Kennedy Center? I think there are three simple things. First, she is a warm body in bed. I don't refer to their sexual activity. That is important but too varied for me to generalize about. I refer to something that is, if possible, even more primitive. It is human contact. A baby crying in its crib doesn't want conversation or a gold ring. He wants to be picked up, held, and patted. Adults need that physical contact also. They need to cuddle together for warmth and comfort in an indifferent or cold world. At least, they need to be able to do that. The plain woman and plain man I am watching do that for each other. But conversation is also important. These couples may have been talking to each other for 30 years or more. You might think they have nothing left to say. But still they can talk to each other in ways that they cannot talk to anyone else. He can tell her of something good he has done, or something good that has happened to him, without fearing that she will think he is bragging. He can tell her of something bad that has happened without fearing that she will think he is complaining. He can tell her of the most trivial thing without fearing that she will think he is bothering her. He can count on her interest and understanding. The primary purpose of this conversation is not to convey any specific information. Its primary purpose is to say, "I am here and I know that you are here." Third, the woman serves the man's need to be needed. If no one needs you, what good are you, and what are you here for? Other people--employers, students, readers--may say that they need you. But it isn't true. In all such relationships you are replaceable at some price. But to this woman you are not replaceable at any price. And that gives you the self-esteem to go out and meet the world every day. So this "ordinary" woman—one like about 50 million others in America—has this great value to this man she is going to the theater with. He surely does not make a calculation—doesn't mark her to market. He probably never says how much he values her, to himself or to her. But he acts as if he knows it. Isee that I have written these views entirely from the point of view of the man. That is only natural for me. But I don't for a minute think that the relationship I have been trying to describe is one-sided. On the contrary, I am sure it is reciprocal. I can hear you saying: "How do you know all this? You are only an economist, practitioner of the dismal science. You aren't Ann Landers." That is all true. But my wife and I walked up that hill to the Kennedy Center many times.

. This provides a not unusual example of why it's not a good idea to SAR in midair, i.e., distant from S or R (see previous charts), unless one is scalping, which of course one would not be doing with a 60m chart.

Sounds like an example of optimism bias: This is a well-established bias in which someone’s subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than their objective accuracy. Indeed, we live in an overconfident, Lake Wobegon world (“where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average”). We are only correct about 80% of the time when we are “99% sure.” Fully 94% of college professors believe they have above-average teaching skills (anyone who has gone to college will no doubt disagree with that). Since 80% of drivers say that their driving skills are above average, I guess none of them drive on the freeway when I do. While 70% of high school students claim to have above-average leadership skills, only 2% say they are below average, no doubt taught by above average math teachers. In a truly terrifying survey result, 92% students said they were of good character and 79% said that their character was better than most people even though 27% of those same students admitted stealing from a store within the prior year and 60% said they had cheated on an exam. Or perhaps cognitive dissonance.

Fund managers outperform the markets?

- Interesting to follow:

Just wait until she's 60 . . .

Natasha Harris Died From Drinking Too Much Coke A New Zealand coroner has told an inquest that Natasha Harris, a mother of eight who suffered a heart attack in 2010, would not have died if she hadn't been dependent on on Coca-Cola. In findings released Feb. 12, coroner David Crerar wrote: "I find that, when all of the available evidence is considered, were it not for the consumption of very large quantities of Coke by Natasha Harris, it is unlikely that she would have died when she died and how she died.'' As reported by the Associated Press last year, Harris, a 31-year-old stay-at-home mom, drank more than two gallons of the soft drink every day. Chris Hodgkinson, the woman's partner, said Harris was "addicted to Coke" and had unhealthy habits, such as eating very little and smoking up to 30 cigarettes a day. Crerar calculated that Harris' intake of Coca-Cola meant that she ingested the equivalent of two pounds of sugar and 970 milligrams of caffeine per day, according to Television New Zealand. Her family claims Harris suffered from withdrawal symptoms when she didn't have access to her beverage of choice.

Since price found R at 1740 and S at 1685 and hasn't been able to maintain momentum in either direction, it's best to just stand aside and wait for the market to tell you what to do. Unless you want to trade it intraday. But that's not what this is about. In any case, the waves are at least as important as LHs, and they were bullish.

However, the supply line is broken. Therefore, the drill is to go long on the RET.

Heart Attack Grill Unofficial Spokesman Dies From Heart Attack John Alleman, the unofficial spokesman for the Heart Attack Grill in Las Vegas, has died of a heart attack. He was 52, according to the Las Vegas Sun. For the past year and a half, Alleman would stand outside of the restaurant and try to encourage people to come inside. Owner Jon Basso didn't actually pay him for this, but would occasionally give him some free food. “I told him if you keep eating like this, it’s going to kill ya,” Basso told the Las Vegas Sun. The Heart Attack Grill is known for its over-the-top burger creations such as the quadruple bypass burger, which holds the Guinness World Record for "most calorific burger." Alleman's heart attack is the most recent health incident surrounding the restaurant. In 2011, another Heart Attack Grill spokesman died at age 29. The following year, a customer suffered a heart attack while eating a triple bypass burger. Two months after that, a customer collapsed while eating a double bypass burger.

Well, buyers nearly got a hernia pushing price up, but the trade triggered:

I don't disagree with you, but you may be swimming against the tide. Ya wanna see vendors? Try Trade2Win. Or BigMikeTrading. And yet they can boast far greater participation than TL. Why? Most likely because that's what beginners want. Big money in Forex. Easy money in futures. Huge profits in options. I suggest you do your best to ignore it. You can ignore members, you can ignore threads. Just seek out like-minded people and go about your business. Of course, there's always Elite Trader

Novice traders tend to trade beyond their skills. They don't have an accurate picture of what they can and cannot do. Not only do they perform poorly, but they also lack the psychological ability to perceive that they are doing poorly. They start with the belief that they are "good performers" and don't take the time to develop a method to assess their actual performance. Top performers, in contrast, try to gauge their performance accurately, and tend to avoid worrying about whether they are "good performers" or not. First, novice traders should be aware that their intuitive performance estimates are grossly exaggerated and take active steps to ignore them. Second, they should create an objective log of their trading results so that they know exactly how well they are performing. As skills improve, their estimates of performance will be more accurate. --Innerworth

If you don't make money off of it, it had better be either a religious experience or a hobby. -- Lance Cooper

Scalping is especially easy to fake since by the time the trade is posted the entry -- and possibly the entire trade -- is already gone. I hadn't planned on hijacking JohnE's thread. If Patuca hadn't dragged my name into it, I wouldn't have seen any reason to intrude. But, as long as the question of fakery is of interest, I offer an old post that is probably the best I've read for those who are looking to evaluate vendors' claims: After more than 5 years' full-time trading and about 100 trade rooms later, I have a few thoughts about how to save yourself a bundle of headaches and heartaches and maybe a few bucks as you search for a trade room. First question is why do you need a trade room? Simple answer is that in the beginning it can help you get through some of the learning curve, and you have a place for some some sympathetic response and support for your trading woes. Complicated answer is you really need guidance but cannot afford a 1-on-1 mentorship. A good trade room should help you make money while you learn. Unfortunately, with 100s of methods and as many trade rooms out there, how can you wade through the junk and concentrate on the better ones? I have a few criteria that I think are an absolute must for a real trade room where your chances of succeeding and MAKING MONEY WHILE LEARNING are high. Number one - You must be able to see the moderating traders charts in real time. Number two - You must be able to see the trades entered in real time either through the moderators order dom or chart trader or some method where it is apparent that the trade was entered, filled, and managed. Number three - You must be able to follow the trades, or at least most of them. This issue gets a bit difficult in a fast market and may need some adjusting. To my mind there are three basic types of trading rooms. One is where it's just pure trading, minimal instruction. The other is where the education has more emphasis, and trading takes a back seat...hence few trades. The third is a hybrid: a steady stream of trading towards a set room goal, some Q&A once the daily goal is met, and a scheduled series of ongoing educational sessions in addition to the room's daily trading. So, first you need to decide which is right for you. Here's a tip. If you are considering a trading education in a particular trading method because you have none of your own, then look for the education emphasis. Otherwise, if you have a few good setups you know, and have some of your trading education already underway, then look for a trading room that will add to your knowledge and help you make money as you learn their methods and tools. If, however, you have traded a bit and have some tools and know some setups and yet nothing is working or going well for you, then look to the hybrid. Regardless, remember the #1, #2 and #3 rule. DO NOT SETTLE FOR ANYTHING LESS. If a person hangs out their shingle and asks for your money in return for a service, then you better make sure that service is to your liking. If you are unable to see the trade moderator's charts and his trade entries then pass that place up. It may be a good place, it may not. But without the visual verifiable evidence, you will find yourself not only having to watch your own chart but also having to compile in your head what is happening and keep that picture going along with all the other pressures of trading. I do not care what excuse is given; there is no excuse for not showing real-time moderating trades taken in real time. Technology is not an issue, money cannot possibly be the issue, so it must be something else? Let's see...fear, exposure, stop fluffing, doubling up or bad trading habits or what? You tell me. So, there is the absolute newbie (and it's going to be painful) who really needs a lot of luck to avoid the garbage rooms and there is the trader who is just looking to improve and there is the trader who really needs a better set of tools and methods to get him out of his funk. So if you have found a room then the best way to research the room is to spend a few weeks just listening and watching. We are conditioned for immediate response syndrome, instant gratification syndrome and these are detrimental to your trading health. We can probably all agree on that. If you do take the time to watch and listen, then keep a notebook and write down every trade call, the time and the particulars: targets hit, stops, etc., and review it after market while looking at your own chart. Don't even look at your own chart while doing the assessment. Concentrate on what's going on in the room because if you decide on that room, you are going to have to do the next very important thing to get the most out of the room: trust the trading moderator and his trade calls. Why? Because you want to be able to make money while you learn. So your next task is to see if the room makes sense to you. Can you follow the logic of the trade moderator. If he is a really good trader, he may be a lousy moderator and vice versa. So you need to know that before you join. Look for verifiable results. Verifiable results are the trade records 1st hand...not some spreadsheet made up afterwards, or some list of trades posted in a chat window (even if in real time). In Ninja it's pretty easy. Look for the trade list records unadulterated right out of Ninja. Look for the summary records. I have heard a lot of traders complain that sim doesn't count. Well, I think that is wrong thinking. What you need to see is the trade time of entry, the target completion and the stop. Add a tick of slippage in one direction, if you like, to the trade and see what it looks like. Often, a moderator will move to sim if he has hit his daily goal. The better moderators are not at all shy about letting you know they have moved to sim. I think it very unreasonable of traders who insist that a moderator continue to endlessly trade throughout the day without some kind of stopping criteria. The concepts of over trading, pointless trading, mental fatigue, and plain stupidity come to mind if anyone thinks that trading without some kind of daily goal or quota is going to make you a better trader. On the contrary. So why should a moderator who trades his own money be forced to practice bad trading habits just because you as a member may have strolled into the trade room at 10:56 a.m. and want a winning trade? Well, guess what? By 10:56 a.m. most good traders are done for the day! So, once the daily goal is hit and if the moderator is any good, then you should not have any problems with his moving to sim. What's important is does he continue to call winning trades? Do the tools continue to give high probability setups? Can you see his trades? So, now you have a room you think is going to work for you. You took the trial, you signed up for 1 month. BTW, Do not accept a room where you are required to sign up for a longer specified term...this is bs. If the room is a good room then there should exist the confidence that you will be so pleased and satisfied that you will return of your own desire. Now, remember the part about trusting the moderator's trading? This is where it is important that you accept that fact and live with it. You are not going to catch every trade call...no matter what room you are in. Its just the way it is. Hesitation, you coughed just as the trade was called, a bug distracted you...whatever...its going to happen that you will miss a couple. So, the bottom line is that to get the most out of any trade room AFTER you have done your homework and decided is to take every room trade, period. Your homework should already have told you the performance expectation, the style of the rooms moderating trader, the basic methodology and trade setup rules, etc. Your job now is to learn the method and the setups in great detail, practice them under guidance, and make money while you learn. I have been in some pretty crappy rooms (now I know they were crappy) and some pretty decent rooms (of course these are the ones I abandoned because I did not have my own act together). Currently I do not need a trade room. If you are at that point then congratulations! If not, then even if you join any trade room, remember to look forward to the day when you can graduate and trade independently, consistently successfully, and live off the profits of your hard-earned accomplishment. --edabreu

Which contains little that isn't freely available in the Wyckoff Forum and always has been. All the information you wanted regarding retracements, for example.

This thread isn't about everybody who posts on TL but those who brag about what great traders they are, including those who propose that others can be just as great if only they'll buy the great trader's software or course or whatever. As for those who visit a forum to learn more about trading, caveat emptor.

- Most notable is that AAPL has filled its gap. Now we'll see. .

By this time, you should already know my thoughts on trade management. Nobody's shown any interest in platinum, so I haven't pursued it. But here's an updated chart:

Good luck with that.

What challenges? We post our trades in advance. AFAIK, no one else does, or has, except for Thalestrader, which may explain why his thread was and is so popular. As to whether or not JohnE, or you, trades, or can, who cares? He has nothing to sell, and neither do you, AFAIK. Now that we have "Ignore This Thread", I couldn't care less who goes on about what great traders they are because without some explanation of what they do and why they do it and when they do it and how they manage it, it's all pure fiction. And, no, one can't post real-time trades on a message board. I've been online for 15 years, and I know all about how "real-time" trades are faked, even in a "trading" room. There are only two or three people here that I am persuaded actually trade. The rest talk the talk, frequently and at length, but they provide zero evidence that they trade. Or can. More often they end up asking some question that anyone who had traded for more than a few weeks would know. Or making some remark that betrays their ignorance of how it all works.

You wouldn't need a stop at 62, you'd choose a stop at 62. You could just as easily place a stop at 66 and enter at 70. Don't make the error of "thinging" price. Price is alive. Observe its behavior. And don't make the additional error of assuming it's trying to trick you.

You know by now that price found S at 63. If you took it, you need to review the trade and look at how and why you took it. If you didn't, you need to look at why not.

If you mean those with high GQs, it may be more likely that they are highly-skilled at manipulating the gullibility of others. That has particularly been the case in the US for the past three or four decades. But back to our regularly-scheduled program.