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DbPhoenix
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix
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They aren't. No. Probably. Death. Yes. That happens only after you've jumped out the window. Possibly, but you'd be difficult to live with. Look at all the young and inexperienced traders on message boards who (a) know everything and (b) are forever spouting profundities they read somewhere. But when it comes to cycles, they used to be regular and predictable. Then came Alan Greenspan along with his extraordinary interference in the markets, a tradition followed by Bernanke. With that, the cycles have been disrupted in the extreme. This is in large part one of the reasons why so many businesses lease nowadays rather than buy and focus on part-timers rather than full-time contract employees (in addition to avoiding healthcare benefits and pensions). But for the trader as opposed to the B&Her, it doesn't really matter. If one understands the mechanics of tops and bottoms and trend, he can simply weave himself in and out of whatever cycles he may still discover.
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I've been called worse.
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Two things to remember for now. One is that the more what if scenarios you create in advance the better, as long as they are If:Then, i.e., if this happens, then I will do whatever. Creating scenarios in the midst of your trading will only confuse and probably paralyze you. Second is that this is not follow the bouncing ball. These are traders trading, and through their trading they move price. Wondering about why is fun and interesting, but you never can be sure why people are doing what they're doing, largely because they don't know either. Therefore, from a trading perspective, the what becomes more important than the why. Take this chart, for example, which is a repeat of the "channel" drawn above with space to the right: Since so many of the "professionals" are expecting a 7% correction, it will most likely reverse short of that or plummet right through. One must therefore be prepared for anything. On the other hand, price may reverse at the demand line, and, if the angle of the sell wave is the same as the previous two, it will reach that line sometime around the beginning of April, which happens to be, ta-da, 7%. However, the more people to whom this is obvious, the less likely it is to happen. Which is why one must "be available" to as many scenarios as possible.
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Yes, though before the "tape", there were reports and logs, such as were used by Homma. The progress of price can be tracked in a number of ways other than by charts and the tape.
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The thread is here. The discussion of it is here. There isn't much discussion of ES.
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That's what I thought. We eagerly await your explanation of how you managed to repeal the law of supply and demand. If you need more than five days, just let us know.
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How old are you? ..............................
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Really? 'Nuff said.
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An additional note: overlaying the above with the percentage pullback chart I posted last night, A 10% correction (+/-) would take us back to the last swing low.
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I suppose one might think that debating this is pointless since "The Dude" doesn't understand what technical analysis is and has been for centuries. However, newcomers might read this and get the wrong impression. To them I suggest that they do their own research since debating this is akin to debating whether or not the sky is pink. You admire Steidlmayer so much and yet you think that MP has nothing to do with charts and patterns. If on the other hand it does have to do with charts and patterns, then MP is TA. Unless you define TA as having to do with indicators. If the definition is that narrow, then nobody traded before 1950. FA is the study of the value of a company. TA is the study of the value of a stock (or whatever instrument is traded). That value is determined by imbalances and the ultimate balance, however temporary, between demand and supply as reflected in price movement and illustrated by either a chart of some sort or a T&S display. "The Dude" doesn't understand this, but others do. Perhaps that's enough.
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Don't know what Freud has to do with any of this. In any case, no, not everything is TA. There's also FA, as I've said before in response to you. TA is the study of price movement. Always has been. If you don't understand the difference between TA and FA, that is a cross you'll just have to bear. As for Wyckoff, he didn't ridicule those who use TA; he ridiculed those who follow "geometric shapes". And if you want to admire Steidlmayer, great. Of course, that would involve following charts.
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There is also the problem of the misuse of the term "random". The outcome of any given trade is unknowable. That doesn't make it random.
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- I don't plan for anything; I just watch. The SPX has been in an uptrend since it extricated itself from its last trading range in Jan '12. After that, it's a matter of monitoring the waves and the trend channel. If the channel lines aren't parallel, that's an early signal that the trend has an expiration date.
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- As for the S&P, it helps to maintain supply and demand lines. S&D lines often give notice of changes in trend and potential reversal, as in this case: Depending on one's time zone, one may have noticed this roll-over: In any case, if the correction continues, it may not reach 5% as expected, but 3%. If it goes past 5%, then 7% provides support, at which point price can rally and continue the uptrend.
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How you and other "traders" define TA is irrelevant. TA has been about the analysis of price movement for centuries. If you want to ignore that, go ahead. But that doesn't make it real.
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In the case of oil, both. You're not likely to be able to "sit" on a trade for very long while you're in a giant hinge.
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TA, however, isn't about patterns and indicators or even charts. TA is about price movement. All the rest of that stuff came later.
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. Never be in a hurry to do something stupid. (Lee Richartz)
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RULE #20: Learn from your mistakes.... When we factor past lessons in for future play, losses are not losses, but rather stepping-stones toward future correct play. Failure, by its nature, moves us in another direction, away from failure. We need to treat these lessons neutrally. Simply learn from them. Don't take them too much to heart or put too much emotion into them. One must also understand that not all losing trades are mistakes - the market is simply a game of odds. (William)
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RULE #19: Arrive with a system.... It is not enough to rely on luck or hope to carry us past the weak parts of our game. These parts must be attended to. The system must be whole and complete.... The weak parts must be corrected, or disaster will appear. It is important for me to trade a few setups with proper filters to minimize their failure (no setup will work for all market conditions). The rest of the game is to recognize when not to trade. (William)
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RULE #18: Practice. .
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If that's the case, then I suggest you find something that is either trending or that has established a very wide trading range. Oil doesn't fit either of those criteria. If you attempt to do otherwise, you'll be stuck in chop.
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And eat your peas. . . .
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Well. Wow. So. Pull up a chair and write as much as you like. You may feel as though it's taken you awhile, but winners do eventually find the on-ramp you've found and work their way toward the Promised Land, even though they may not be driving the same car. Point is that you're doing the work, or at least thinking about it. The losers will wander around, without a map, until they run out of gas. Or give up and take the bus back home.
