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DbPhoenix
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix
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You're very welcome. Best of luck to you.
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Actually this is not a Wyckoff-related question; it's a VSA-related question. And the two have little to do with each other. The statement you quote is incorrect. And there is no "smart money". So your questions stem from a fundamental misunderstanding of volume and of accumulation. Which isn't necessarily your fault. If you want to chuck VSA and start over with Wyckoff, you're welcome to do so. Otherwise, you'll have to wait for the VSA forum to resurrect itself or try some other website. No hablamos VSA. Sorry.
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You may be interested in this post. I made it several years ago to prove a point, that the overlays we use now to show TRs and BOs and RETs and so forth were just as applicable then. Note also that if the correct entry is made, stops are never hit, assuming that they're not too tight and that you're paying attention. The principles don't change. But you won't get any sort of adrenaline rush from EOD trading.
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Price is moving continuously whether you're looking at it or not. The difference between one who understands this and one who looks at a series of bars is that the former understands the nature of markets and the latter is perpetually befuddled, and is far more likely to rely on computerized backtesting and "systems" which rely on indicators and bar closes and candle "signals" and so forth. If you understand market dynamics, you will know where to enter and where to place your stop. If you don't, you won't. And that I'm afraid is that. If, for example, you are going to trade the NQ off the daily, there's nothing for you to do until it breaks out of this little range it's in, trend or no trend. When it does, you'll either buy the BO or the RET after the BO, if there is one. The only question is what to do about the stop, and that will require not only chart analysis but self analysis. An alternative is to maintain a herd, or hareem, or collection of some other sort. AAPL, for example, just broke through its supply line. And there are other stocks and ETFs that are trending nicely and also pay a dividend while you wait. If the NQ is just sitting around clipping its toenails, trade something else. Or two somethings. Or three.
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Actually, there was quite a bit to do today, if one were daytrading it, much more than oil. I hope you'll think further about this.
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If I may, I suggest that you first review the course, particularly the section on stops. Review in particular everything having to do with danger points. Remember that the market doesn't know you and doesn't give a damn about you. Nor does it give a damn about your risk tolerance. Therefore, don't expect the market to respect it. Nor does the market know or care what you've selected as your danger point. But you have to decide what that point is or will be. As for best entries and second-best entries, the best entry is the correct entry, i.e., that entry which will result in immediate or near-immediate profit and which makes whatever stop you've chosen irrelevant. If you don't enter correctly, your risk increases and so does your stop, unless you elect to use a very tight stop to decrease your risk in which case the stop is almost surely to be hit. The most important consideration, of course, is to trade what you can trade. Don't concern yourself with what you can't trade. If you can't trade anything smaller than hourly bars, then work with that. If you can't even trade that, then work with daily bars. But the danger point is what it is, and if you can't get even reasonably close to it AND accept the risk that it might be hit, then don't take the trade at all.
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RULE #29: Play "within yourself." Like an Olympic runner who learns to run "within himself," you will eventually become comfortable inside your knowledge of the game. You will cease striving; the clouds will disperse, the sun comes out... But your goal as a player is to reach the point where a great many things will have to go wrong for you to lose badly...
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RULE #28: When you take your emotions out of the game, other players' emotions become visible. When we are focused exclusively on our own emotions (as we often are), the emotions of others tend to be obscured. When we make ourselves neutral, however, we find that the canvas suddenly becomes blank and the emotions of others begin to appear.
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RULE #27 : Nonattachment. The idea of attachment, in Buddhistic terms, means the linking of our emotions with something that we want - some desired object or outcome. The stronger this connection, the more discontent when we fail to achieve our ends (as well as desperate steps taken trying to achieve them)... Emotions have no place in poker... To play in an ego-less state means simply to not let the ego and emotions get involved.
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See the course, posted in the stickies at the top of the Forum. The "Introduction" is the first stickie.
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Though you have your TLs and TCs drawn, you appear not to be taking full advantage of them, focusing instead on lateral TRs and the S/R that they may provide. This is not to say that you have to choose one over the other but that each provides information that can be used to realign the probabilities for successful trades. For example, the move up on the 12th not only tickles the top of the TR from the end of February but also constitutes an overbought condition based on its relationship to the TC. This in and of itself may constitute a short op, but the failure to make a new high the next day, particularly since the attempt fails to break out of the TC, constitutes an even better one. Similarly, the REV off the lower TC line may or may not constitute a long op dep on your risk tolerance, but the retest of that this morning, particularly since it constitutes an oversold condition in relation to the TC, presents an even better long op. All of this activity also takes place at the bottom of that February TR.
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If you can explain how I am to go about explaining a statement that is not part of W's course, please do so.
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What you posted is not from Wyckoff's course. If you want to know what SMI means by it, you'll have to ask SMI.
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. . . buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. --Will Rogers
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This is not unlike trying to convince a teeny-bopper that Justin Bieber and Taylor Swift have no talent. People are going to believe what they're going to believe. Besides, without indicators, one would have to learn how to read price movement, and, in the words of Lewis Black, "that's haaarrrd".
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FYI, and those who may be interested, the highest hurdle here is persuading allegedly interested bystanders to read the course. Since that hurdle has rarely been jumped, I cut the course in half. But even that for many people is too much. Beyond that, the next highest hurdle is understanding basic chart reading, particularly telling the difference between up and down, and the longer one has been studying trading, the more difficult this is. But beyond even that is auction market theory. I put this off for quite a long while, but given W's emphasis on support and resistance and trending and ranging and the importance of the "midpoint", continuing to ignore AMT became absurd. So here it is. One might even argue that W invented AMT without being aware of having done so. As for breadth measures, I use them but have avoided getting into them because however sure I might be that Wykcoff would have doubtless used them, they're not part of the course. And since people have in the past gone to great lengths to introduce non-W tactics and ideas and *shudder* indicators, I can hardly introduce new highs/lows and volumes of advancers/decliners without seeming a hypocrite. As far as that goes, I know full well that posters to this forum use indicators in their own charts, but there's nothing I can about that. All I can do is ask that they leave them off when posting their charts here so that we don't go sailing off into yet another most likely purposeless direction.
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That's from the SMI course, not the original course. However, if you'd like to read the relevant sections of Wyckoff's course regarding trends and have questions, I'll be happy to answer them.
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Actually he's studied W for three years. But since no one in the gold thread caught the reversal at the top of the trading range in either September, October, or even November, it's probably the wrong place for me to post anyway. And I may very well be out of the gold long by the end of the day. But that's trading. P.S. Now out of it.
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The "monster downtrend in the ratio", however, doesn't necessarily have anything to do with trading, which is what the Wyckoff Forum is about.
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In Wyckoff, however, trend is determined by price movement.
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To reiterate, it is a "downtrend" only within the context of the trading range between 1800 and 1550, and may be no more difficult to support and reverse than the last two downtrends within this range. This is not to say that gold won't fall out of the TR and plummet to who knows where. But that's trading.
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. If AAPL can't rally out of this channel, the next target is 360-55.
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Maybe. Maybe not. But you do know what evil lurks in the hearts of men. If not, there's always the Green Hornet. At least he has a car.
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Since November. Same thing.
