DbPhoenix

Foresight means ahead of time, not real time. If you're going to trade something, post your chart in advance and show us what you're looking at and why you think it's tradeable (see Niko, tupapa, etc). Otherwise there's really nothing for anybody to say. You should also know that only one person here daytrades, so you may have no audience.

Yes, but no one knows what you're doing or why, so why go to all the trouble of posting?

Since we don't know why you're taking these trades, they might better be entered into a log along with charts so that those who are interested will understand what you're doing.

A quick and dirty chart, since price may reach the top of the TC before the open:

About news. Clearly today was news-driven, which can be fun if you have the right attitude. Most note-worthy is that no matter what the news was, price still respected the S&R that we've been watching, particularly the trend channel. But what I find even more interesting is that the news services weren't quite as alert as one might expect in interpreting the relationships between the announcements and price movements. Price may have fallen because of the Cypriot rejection of the bailout terms, but it rallied almost to the minute after the ECB's announcement that it was going to bail them out anyway, in so many words.

TO ALL THE GUESTS WHO ARE VIEWING THIS THREAD: You can't ask questions if you don't register

And we close in the middle of the TC. Doncha love it?

So it made it all the way to the bottom of the TC. Son of a gun. Clearly the trend channel trumps the gap.

While I'm no fan of hindsight analysis per se, I do think it's important to distance oneself from the trade and think about what W would have done. The best move took place after my trading session ended, but it's worth noting that the reversal did not just come out of nowhere but occurred at the level of the opening low, at 2791. Would W have taken it? We'll never know. But I'd like to think so. He was certainly more attuned to the market than I'll ever be.

Reading chat transcripts has to be one of the most boring activities on the planet. But for those who were there this morning, I want to elaborate on something I said there because one must wonder how on earth that short could have been missed. What W would or would not have done is one thing. But what one can tolerate in trading can be something else entirely. But that's the difference between hindsight and real time. Here, if one backs off a bit, he can see the TR that was created before the gap. When price recovered, it not only filled the gap but drove right past it. This morning, price went past that midpoint all the way to 2800. As I said in chat, if price had hit that MP and reversed, I would have taken the short, gap or no gap. But price went past the MP and returned to settle in there, and in my experience the odds of price having a significant move after launching itself off an MP rather than reversing off it are not great. So I let it go. As for supports, I never would have expected price to fill the gap again from the opposite side, but that's where we are as of 1310. Quite frankly, I have no idea what traders are thinking, so I'll wait until they tell me by the trades they make. Somebody else with a different risk profile would very likely play this very differently. After such good days Friday and yesterday, I'm not exactly beating myself up over it.

Yes, it does. Unfortunately . . .

Here is an uber chart of the overall trend:

For the information of whoever's interested, the first chart shows the retracement of the buying wave that I was referring to this morning in chat. A 50% retracement is 60. The second chart shows the bounce off 60 and the progress of price toward the gap closure at 85. The following text is a transcript of the chat log. This is as close to real time as I can get. Unfortunately, I don't know how to flip it, so if you want to follow along from the beginning, you'll have to scroll down to the end and then reverse. Niko - Report Shout Today 08:29 AM Impressive rally DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:29 AM And 85. Gap closed. DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:27 AM And there's 84 Niko - Report Shout Today 08:26 AM Hehe DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:26 AM They're going to get a hernia DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:24 AM If and when the gap closes, I may just exit DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:23 AM Yep Niko - Report Shout Today 08:22 AM Still there? DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:20 AM Almost there. DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:15 AM Next leg up DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:11 AM So we have 19pts so far. Wonder how the scalpers are doing? Niko - Report Shout Today 08:06 AM GM boru - Report Shout Today 08:05 AM gm Niko - Report Shout Today 08:04 AM RET DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:03 AM Gap nearing closure DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:03 AM Is this real time enough for everybody? DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:02 AM And there we go DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:02 AM I think they do it bec they don't want to be part of the herd. What they don't realized is that it's the herd that moves price. Niko - Report Shout Today 08:01 AM ok DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:00 AM That's why they always complain that nobody can do this. DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 08:00 AM I let the kids trade countertrend DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:59 AM This arch is almost geometric Niko - Report Shout Today 07:59 AM Ok DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:59 AM Never Niko - Report Shout Today 07:59 AM When do you take trades against the LOLR, do you? DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:58 AM Almost 1000 Niko - Report Shout Today 07:58 AM Yep just noticed it DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:57 AM Appear to have found S at the premkt swing high Niko - Report Shout Today 07:57 AM ok DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:56 AM Buyers getting a second wind here DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:55 AM And the btm of that range may provide R. However, the MP of the last upwave is 60. And since all that was tested overnite, that makes the LOLR up. Niko - Report Shout Today 07:53 AM I did not really thought about the news and the gap, just had a BO of last week TR and 78 as R from a previous TR and the MP of the downswing. In the daily the LOLR still up though. DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:50 AM They may have other reasons, but that one is not sufficient DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:49 AM Institutions are not going to exit the mkt just bec some dinky little country is raiding its citizens bank accounts. DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:46 AM I think you and tupapa are making too much of this gap. Niko - Report Shout Today 07:45 AM Let me check, DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:45 AM Did you see the chrts I pstd yest? Niko - Report Shout Today 07:45 AM looking at the MP of the wave from 807 to 748 DOwn wave Niko - Report Shout Today 07:45 AM nope DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:44 AM R U lkng at the MP of the last upwave? Niko - Report Shout Today 07:44 AM THen I got my levels all wrong DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:43 AM The midpoint was at 60 DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:43 AM I wonder if anybody is following this? Niko - Report Shout Today 07:42 AM Am i not supposed to be looking for a short? I was thinking short at the MP of the downswing at 78 if a REV happened. DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:39 AM Anyway, here's your entry DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:38 AM Price is in the middle of the TC DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:38 AM There's no TC break Niko - Report Shout Today 07:37 AM I have price reaching the top of the TC Break of DL and a LH, just thought in HS it was a valid entry. DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:37 AM Are you looking for a short? DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:36 AM Bounced off S at 60 Niko - Report Shout Today 07:34 AM nq DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:34 AM What entry? Niko - Report Shout Today 07:34 AM Did you take the entry at 8:3X DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:32 AM gm DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:31 AM Next level, 60 Niko - Report Shout Today 07:31 AM GM Niko - Report Shout Today 07:31 AM Hey! DbPhoenix (Edit · Delete) Today 07:30 AM For whoever is out there, NQ is testing S at 65.

Depends on what you're practicing. Practicing a losing strategy only makes one a more accomplished loser. As for sharing knowledge, that can't be done. Only information can be shared. Knowledge is gained only through experience. And a lot of effort.

Don't overlook the fact that 60 is the midpoint of the last rally.

It isn't that it's sub par, tho it may be; it's that you're not there to take advantage of so many of the ops. If you're going to trade only during certain hours, it's important to trade something that provides ops during those hours.

You're failing because you're looking to adopt somebody else's method. If you follow a method that is not your own without making the effort to understand why price moves in one direction or another, you won't last long. As for indicators, there's a very great difference between what's popular and what's effective. Most traders who claim success with indicators are just lucky, and that luck will eventually run out. It always does. Instead of wasting your time looking for a method or a system or whatever, learn how the auction market works. Then you'll be able to create a method of your own, one that you can trust.

This is an example of what I was referring to yesterday regarding applying W's principles to trading. Note that the first chart provides the context for the upcoming trading day. The fifth chart provides an alternate trading scheme to the fourth chart, for those who still have fear issues.

RULE #33: Make sure you know when you're on a cold streak... "He is not aware of his condition. He is not stepping back from it and seeing it -- and, more important, not acting on this information. As a result, as cold as he is, you often see him right back in there on the next hand, fighting struggling, betting..." You need to be two people-- one is the guy who is doing it, and the second is the guy who steps back and watches the other guy from a slight distance and evaluates whether the first guy is too tired, too upset, too unfocused, too much on tilt, etc, to be sitting at the poker table, trading, or whatever. Most important, this second guy must have the AUTHORITY to pull the first guy out of the chair, if he doesn't like what he sees. (Larry Phillips)

RULE #32: Include Failure in the System... Correctly played, poker is really a process of two steps forward and step back. Footnote: There is some evidence that this two steps forward and one step back is more than just a figure of speech: pro players report that on average they expect to have two winning sessions out of every three.

To Those Who Feel Called Upon To Answer Questions: I've added an explanation to the Wyckoff Lite/Glossary thread on how to search, both the Wyckoff Forum as a whole and particular threads. Those who have read the course and have read whatever posts are pertinent to their inquiries will be ready to open a log and begin posting charts, at which point they can ask questions that are specific to themselves, though by that time they will likely find they don't have any.

While I find it easier and more informative to read the entire course, you can focus if you like on this particular topic by scanning the course for "danger point". If you don't know where to enter, I suggest multiple readings of Section 7.

RULE #31: Learn to play up and down the ladder. Don't just downscale your bets when you get cold, downscale the actual way you play the game. Back off within your method of play, alternately loosening up your game when things are going well and tightening back up when they are not. Mathematicians tell us that each hand takes place independently of all others. This is good advice to ignore... Back off and stay off the market when you get out-of-sync with the market rhythm. Profits are not important at that point. Scratch the trade when things don't look right or you don't like the rhythm. Press the gas when the odds are stacking on your side. Use real leverage at the right time and go for the big kill. (William)

RULE #30: Be wary of pushing forward aggressively when encountering resistance. Don't fight the situation. Why does one press it? Because one wants perfection. One has to let go of one's agenda and listen to the market. A "natural" trader is the best trader and in order to be a "natural" trader, one CANNOT be the "perfect" trader. For all beginner traders, if one truly truly thinks it through and gets this point, it will stop the bleeding. The number of trades (including marginal trades) will go straight down significantly and the whole profit/loss equation will turn around. Only then does one have a fighting chance. (William)