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DbPhoenix
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix
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Yes, I understand the difference between short, intermediate, and long term. But as regards trade management, it doesn't make any difference. What you think is irrelevant. Whether or not you decide to exit based on a change in trend on the daily chart while the trend is still intact on the weekly depends entirely on your risk tolerance and, possibly, how fearful you are. If you did not decide before you entered where your danger point was, then decide now. If you're already past it, get out. Whatever targets you may have come up with and whether or not you reached them is beside the point.
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Ah, the long time ago great trader again. Another long time ago great trader said that anybody who puts down real money without having the least idea whether or not his strategy -- if any -- holds water could save himself a lot of time by putting all his money into a big pile and setting it on fire.
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Since your questions are general, I can provide only general answers. Trend is trend. It doesn't matter what your timeframe or bar interval is. If your stock is ranging, then the "trends" within the range are bound by the limits of the range. If it isn't ranging, then the stock is free to trend for as long as buyers are willing to buy.
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What do you mean by "Rhythm of market"?
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The principles are provided in Section 8. Begin with the market, in your case the Naz. And since the Naz has become a technology market, there's really no need to look at the other eight sectors. So look at the groups within the Technology sector (2) and the subgroups within each group (7 ttl). Or go bottom up: find the stock thru some scan or other, then look at its subgroup, then its group.
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If you mean what would be most like what Wyckoff traded, that would be the Dow. However, the Dow bears little if any similarity to what it was a hundred years ago.
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It's all part of the picture. You may be working your way toward a trend, a trading range, or a hinge. Each wave is a tell, and at some point, traders will show their hands.
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Depends on what you mean by "rules". If you're talking about the rules that you've developed in the creation of your system, that's up to you. In order to succeed at trading, you must have an edge. Your edge begins with the knowledge you gain through your research and testing that a particular price pattern or market behavior offers a level of predictability and a risk to reward ratio that provides a consistently profitable outcome over time. Without it, one is just "playing" the market in order to have something to talk about on message boards. To get it, you have to know exactly what you're looking for and what to do with it once you've found it. None of this happens when you use somebody else's method or system unless you research and test it so thoroughly that it becomes your own. If you don't want to do that, then you really ought to save yourself the money and the grief and find some other way of supplementing your income. Otherwise, instead of supplementing your income, you'll drain away what you already have.
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It depends in part on what one means by "making a living". I, for example, have no debts. Therefore my cost of living is a small fraction of what it would be for most. More than that, however, it is not so much a matter of strangling price and taking quick profits, or losses, nor of hitting it out of the park. Rather it is a matter of understanding price movement, taking off the collar, and letting it do what it wants to do. The "harmonic rotation" study, for example, arrives at a conclusion, or at least a hypothesis, that is more or less true, but it gets there in a roundabout way, ignoring the dynamics of price movement. Yes, it is true that the "adverse excursions" or reactions in the NQ tend to range from 4 to 9pts. However, this is of little use in real-time trading, unless one is willing to sit helplessly like a deer in headlights and hope feverishly that price won't retrace more than nine points. To do so without understanding what he's looking just increases the likelihood of loss, which increases the fear and frustration that the trader feels, which makes it that much more unlikely that his next trade will be a successful one. The extent of the retracement has less to do with statistical study than with the psychology of those who are holding and those who want to get in. This is why a retracement equivalent to or less than 50% suggests strength while a retracement greater than 50% suggests weakness. How far the retracement goes depends on how far the preceding rally or reaction got. For example, if as on Friday the NQ rallies 8pts, the reaction should not move more than 4pts, which is what it did. If it subsequently rallies 17pts, it should not retrace more than 8.5pts (it retraced 10, finding support at the last swing high, to the tick, depending on one's data feed). The day before, price opened to 80, fell to 68, and retraced 50%, after which it fell back and tried to rally again, all the way back to 80, where it retraced 50%. It then rallied 7pts, to 81, then retraced much more than 50%, leading to a 20pt decline. What matters, then, is not the number of points in the retracement but the relationship of the retracement to the immediately preceding move, which is why the point retracements in the ES will be different than those in the NQ. Rather than "hitting home runs", then, one should focus on letting price do what it's going to do, then step in when it looks like price is going to stop doing it and do something else instead.
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Online Trading Academy - OTA - Review of the Strategy and Education
DbPhoenix replied to AKM's topic in Beginners Forum
How do you think I got my plan done? I still have the heel marks. -
Online Trading Academy - OTA - Review of the Strategy and Education
DbPhoenix replied to AKM's topic in Beginners Forum
For a lot less money, one could simply hire a dominatrix to force one to develop the plan, then stand behind one during the trading session, with a copy of the trading plan and a cattle prod, and force one to follow the plan. It would also be a lot more fun. -
True, if it's a genuine secondary reaction. Otherwise, you're just giving away your money.
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Oh, goodie. VSA. If I were to be consistent with past behavior, I'd refuse to answer this question. Not only that, but it's Forex. However, you keep coming back looking for answers, and that should be rewarded. Taking your questions from left to right, there is no such thing as "stopping volume". It's a stupid idea. I'm not even going to get into it. Just forget about it (after noting that "stopping volume" doesn't stop anything any more often than rattling beads and turning three times counter-clockwise would). Second, there 's no reason to expect a "selling climax" since there's no support for selling to climax at. If you back up a day, you've got at least half a dozen "selling climaxes" that weren't. Therefore, you need to study up on what a selling climax is and where it's most likely to take place. Even so, if you entered anyway, which you did, you were too late. You should have entered on the first higher low, i.e., the reaction. But even entering too late, you could have made at least a little money by exiting on the break of a simple demand line (see the Glossary). As for "what happened?", sellers weren't done. Good enough reason to exit, even if you didn't short the next leg down. You chose to enter long again, but, as above, you entered too late, at the second higher low. My suggestions are to forget about VSA and Forex. Trade something real using a logical and reasonable method. If you insist on trading Forex, note from the chart below that you should have bought this last November (if you wanted to daytrade, you could have traded the long side for three months). Instead you have chosen to trade something that's been forming a hinge since early February, which puts you in the middle of chop. And there's a good reason why it's called "chop". You can't build a trading methodology out of bits and pieces of this and that from here and there. If you want to learn and apply the Wyckoff method, great. Everything you need to know is right here. But if you continue to try to make VSA work, particularly with Forex, I'll have to refer you to the VSA Forum. Best of luck. Edit: I've posted a second chart to show an alternative way of entering and managing this trade.
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This forum is not about taking potshots at each other. From this point forward, any such posts will be edited or deleted. Muir, an accumulative base is a springboard. It is not the only springboard. As for the hinge, tupapa described its dynamics correctly. When it comes to correcting each other, do so with respect. These threads are collegial, not competitive. Any suggestion of the latter will, again, be edited or deleted entirely.
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I was unclear. My apologies. What you have is a hinge. It is also a springboard. A hinge is a subset of springboards and had certain defining characteristics that are not shared with all springboards. Thus a hinge begins with a characteristic LH and HL, but a springboard can be a perfect rectangle. Given all that I've written about AMT (see the stickie), I really don't want to get into this again. Wyckoff didn't care about jargon and labels. Look at how many synonyms he used for equilibrium. And it would serve no purpose to come up with special names for the many ways that traders can prepare for an advance, either up or down. Keep it simple. Something is either trending, getting ready to trend, or clipping its toenails. Getting more complicated than that just clouds the picture.
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Capra's. I won't be criticizing yours or offering any suggestions regarding yours because you've been at this for so long and are leaving the field. The best I can do without being an asshole is congratulate you for giving it the old college try. But as for the indicators, no. They add nothing and not only subtract a great deal but divert the attention away from where it ought to be: what is price doing and why is it doing it. Price is eventually what we have to deal with, something that many once-fundamentalists learned in 2000. And '08. But indicators or not, this is a bad example because Capra's encouraging the trader to trade counter-trend. A great many traders do because they don't know how to identify the conditions for a trend reversal, much less trade it. Therefore, they trade counter-trend and get screwed. If they're going to make anything at all out of the trade, they must be able to get into the reversal at the earliest possible moment, something that they are most likely to do out of luck since they know so little about trend, trend change, trend reversal, and managing a trend trade. All you need is a simple trendline and a recognition of what a lower high is. Whether one uses a 60m or 15m chart is irrelevant. A lower high is a lower high, and the stop is in the same place in all cases. What is most important in counter-trend trading, again, is getting in as soon as possible. To wait longer than necessary means that one is that much closer to the end of the reaction or correction and that much more likely to be stopped out.
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Well, I trade price only, so I'm not in a position to advise. I will suggest that you trade what you can watch. If you're in front of your computer throughout your trading session, a 30m interval will drive you crazy, and you'll end up taking lots of bad trades out of boredom. But if you can't be in front of your computer, 30m may be the best you can do. Or even 60m.
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Since you're been studying for four years and fine-tuning your system for 3 months, you really ought to elaborate on what you're doing and what you want to accomplish in order to get anything but an answer that is so general as to be of little use to you.
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Yes, Wyckoff's course. Scan it using Ctrl+F "secondary reaction" (without the quotes).
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This is a particularly bad example of the thesis that the trend is your friend since Capra is trying to short a stock that's been in an uptrend since August '11. But even if one is open to the idea of shorting this stock in an assumption that it is going to travel to its long-term trendline, the entry is far too late. The "trick" is not to catch the trend but to anticipate it, and this is done after the stock breaks its very short-term trendline (the one that begins in February) and fails to make a higher high on March 14th (at the open, actually). Once that opportunity presents itself, all one has to do is sit. The MAs, of course, are irrelevant, as would be any indicator.
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Online Trading Academy - OTA - Review of the Strategy and Education
DbPhoenix replied to AKM's topic in Beginners Forum
Oh, I don't know. I thought your response to greedy was rather elegant. -
Online Trading Academy - OTA - Review of the Strategy and Education
DbPhoenix replied to AKM's topic in Beginners Forum
And just think, only a few months ago he was eagerly participating in your thread. Kids. Waddaya gonna do? -
Scan the course using Ctrl+F "springboard" (no quotes)
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You appear to be equating springboard with hinge. A hinge is a type of springboard, but a springboard can take other forms, such as a rectangular trading range. A springboard is simply "a preparation for an advance". That so many don't recognize it just makes it that much more powerful since those people are caught by surprise.
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Nobody's here, Muir. I'm sure you noticed that chat isn't exactly crammed, even during the day. And only 10 people are logged in now other than you and me. If you were to post a chart ahead of time, at least you might get some questions/comments.