DbPhoenix

Shain Gandee Died From Carbon Monoxide Poisoning, Family Raising Money for Funeral By Kathleen Perricone Shain Gandee died doing what he loved. While mudding with his uncle, David Gandee, and friend, Donald Robert Myers, following a night at a West Virginia bar on Saturday [emphasis mine], the "Buckwild" star's 1984 Ford Bronco got stuck in the thick, dirty water and its tailpipe submerged, thus preventing the exhaust from leaving the car. On Tuesday, the Kanawha County Sheriff's Department in West Virginia announced that completed autopsies confirmed: "The manner of death is accidental and the cause was carbon monoxide poisoning for all three subjects."

.............................................

.............................................

You may be right re the ES. And this is often the case with CL. But the NQ generally moves best during the first 90-120m, which is one reason why I like it so much.

I don't find it strange to find patterns in random data. You don't think those people who see Jesus in their morning toast are onto something, do you? But take care not to confuse "random" with "unknowable". Nor can one ignore probability. The outcome of a particular trade may be unknowable, but that doesn't mean that it's random if one's testing has determined that the probable outcome is X. That is, after all, the basis of the edge.

If you'll post a 1m chart of the NQ for 3/21, I'll show you.

Depends on how one defines TA. If it is defined by the use of indicators (post-1950), one will achieve a certain set of results. If it is defined via patterns (post-1930), one will likely achieve another. If it is defined as it was originally as the analysis of the imbalances between buying pressure and selling pressure (post-1750), then it should come as no surprise that the "butterfly pattern" precedes reversals since the "pattern" is essentially a double bottom or double top. These in and of themselves will often precede reversals. If they also occur at support or resistance, the instance will be even higher.

If you're asking generally, see Section 15 of the course. If you're asking specifically, post your chart. And human error is always a factor. It can however be minimized if ego is not a factor as well.

........................................

..................................

. . . You Can Trade Successfully. A 21st Century Adaptation of Wyckoff's Principles of Trading Price Much nonsense has been circulated about trading over the past seventy years or so, the bulk of it since the internet made possible discount brokers, affordable charting software, real-time streaming data, chat rooms, trading rooms, trading websites, blogs, and so forth, all of which offered fertile ground to a literally endless assortment of books, DVDs, courses, seminars, "alert" services, mentors, counselors, trading software, indicators and so on, all designed to separate the beginner or struggling trader or otherwise low-hanging fruit from his money. There is, however, only one essential, one lynchpin, one fundament when it comes to understanding the auction market: supply and demand and the Law thereof. Everything else – support, resistance, trend, price movement, volume – stems from the balances and imbalances between supply and demand, selling pressure and buying pressure, sellers and buyers, yet struggling traders are generally incapable of accurately assessing the state of these imbalances, i.e., determining who's in charge at any given moment or interval (some are capable but can't implement what they know, but that's another subject). Trading price hinges on the ability to assess the state of these imbalances not only in the abstract but in every moment of the trading session. If one does not thoroughly understand just what it is that he's looking at, he will be lost. When trading price, the trader knows at all times who's in charge, who's dominant, who's holding the good cards. If he doesn't know this, he's just guessing, and that's not the route to consistent profits, no matter what you read on message boards. Why bother? Because once you learn how to trade price, your edge* will never fail. You will understand trend and how to play it under all circumstances, including its endings and reversals. You will also learn how to distinguish between trending and ranging, the latter including "chop" which is a collection of micro-trends which generate tons of commissions and very little if any profit. *the knowledge you gain through your research and testing that a particular market behavior offers a level of predictability that provides a consistently profitable outcome over time (from Douglas) For the remainder, see the pdf, below. SLA-AMTe.pdf

After 4 years and 4000 posts, a pertinent question might be Is anybody making a living by trading in this way? Just curious.

Two points that should not be overlooked.

Your problem, or "challenge", has less to do with what you're trading than with how you're trading it. If you're not very clear on how to tell the difference between trending and ranging, you will be whipsawed a great deal. If you do know the difference between trending and ranging but you don't know how to manage the trade, you will be whipsawed in a ranging market and exiting a trending market far too early. And even if you know the difference between trending and ranging and you know how to manage trades in each type of market, your entry opportunities may occur at times when you're not available to take them. You can answer your own question by taking a couple of weeks to study a couple of index futures, a couple of commodity futures, a couple of currency pairs and determine which behave the way you like. There are other considerations, of course, such as the spread, but if the central question is trending vs ranging, that is easily answerable with a little investigation.

I'm not sure I understand. According to your past posts, you consider yourself to be a professional trader, yet you say that you have not been able to make "consistent money" for at least two-and-a-half years. But if I give you a strategy that meets your specifications, you'll show me how to manage the money which we will share, I assume, equally? That sounds like a great deal.

There may indeed be some good providers out there. The problem is finding out who they are. Does one really have to spend $30,000 as some woman did on another thread to learn how to trade Forex? Really? Fifteen years ago, I spent quite a lot of time in Teresa Lo's and Linda Raschke's trading rooms. My bullshit detector had become finely-tuned some years earlier, so I was able to appreciate their explaining what to look for, calling their trades in advance along with whatever stops they'd place if the trades got triggered, and their tentative targets. If the trades triggered, they explained their management throughout the ride and noted their exits. I did not realize at the time just how rare this was. But then there weren't quite as many vultures out there at that time. I should also note that both Lo and Raschke offered free trials. Free. As in no cost. There always have been and always will be people who want nothing more than for somebody to tell them what to do, whether it's by means of a "trading signal" or some other form. I hope that they will at the very least exercise some form of caution as outlined below (previously posted) before crapping away their money: After more than 5 years' full-time trading and about 100 trade rooms later, I have a few thoughts about how to save yourself a bundle of headaches and heartaches and maybe a few bucks as you search for a trade room. First question is why do you need a trade room? Simple answer is that in the beginning it can help you get through some of the learning curve, and you have a place for some some sympathetic response and support for your trading woes. Complicated answer is you really need guidance but cannot afford a 1-on-1 mentorship. A good trade room should help you make money while you learn. Unfortunately, with 100s of methods and as many trade rooms out there, how can you wade through the junk and concentrate on the better ones? I have a few criteria that I think are an absolute must for a real trade room where your chances of succeeding and MAKING MONEY WHILE LEARNING are high. Number one - You must be able to see the moderating traders charts in real time. Number two - You must be able to see the trades entered in real time either through the moderators order dom or chart trader or some method where it is apparent that the trade was entered, filled, and managed. Number three - You must be able to follow the trades, or at least most of them. This issue gets a bit difficult in a fast market and may need some adjusting. To my mind there are three basic types of trading rooms. One is where it's just pure trading, minimal instruction. The other is where the education has more emphasis, and trading takes a back seat...hence few trades. The third is a hybrid: a steady stream of trading towards a set room goal, some Q&A once the daily goal is met, and a scheduled series of ongoing educational sessions in addition to the room's daily trading. So, first you need to decide which is right for you. Here's a tip. If you are considering a trading education in a particular trading method because you have none of your own, then look for the education emphasis. Otherwise, if you have a few good setups you know, and have some of your trading education already underway, then look for a trading room that will add to your knowledge and help you make money as you learn their methods and tools. If, however, you have traded a bit and have some tools and know some setups and yet nothing is working or going well for you, then look to the hybrid. Regardless, remember the #1, #2 and #3 rule. DO NOT SETTLE FOR ANYTHING LESS. If a person hangs out their shingle and asks for your money in return for a service, then you better make sure that service is to your liking. If you are unable to see the trade moderator's charts and his trade entries then pass that place up. It may be a good place, it may not. But without the visual verifiable evidence, you will find yourself not only having to watch your own chart but also having to compile in your head what is happening and keep that picture going along with all the other pressures of trading. I do not care what excuse is given; there is no excuse for not showing real-time moderating trades taken in real time. Technology is not an issue, money cannot possibly be the issue, so it must be something else? Let's see...fear, exposure, stop fluffing, doubling up or bad trading habits or what? You tell me. So, there is the absolute newbie (and it's going to be painful) who really needs a lot of luck to avoid the garbage rooms and there is the trader who is just looking to improve and there is the trader who really needs a better set of tools and methods to get him out of his funk. So if you have found a room then the best way to research the room is to spend a few weeks just listening and watching. We are conditioned for immediate response syndrome, instant gratification syndrome and these are detrimental to your trading health. We can probably all agree on that. If you do take the time to watch and listen, then keep a notebook and write down every trade call, the time and the particulars: targets hit, stops, etc., and review it after market while looking at your own chart. Don't even look at your own chart while doing the assessment. Concentrate on what's going on in the room because if you decide on that room, you are going to have to do the next very important thing to get the most out of the room: trust the trading moderator and his trade calls. Why? Because you want to be able to make money while you learn. So your next task is to see if the room makes sense to you. Can you follow the logic of the trade moderator. If he is a really good trader, he may be a lousy moderator and vice versa. So you need to know that before you join. Look for verifiable results. Verifiable results are the trade records 1st hand...not some spreadsheet made up afterwards, or some list of trades posted in a chat window (even if in real time). In Ninja it's pretty easy. Look for the trade list records unadulterated right out of Ninja. Look for the summary records. I have heard a lot of traders complain that sim doesn't count. Well, I think that is wrong thinking. What you need to see is the trade time of entry, the target completion and the stop. Add a tick of slippage in one direction, if you like, to the trade and see what it looks like. Often, a moderator will move to sim if he has hit his daily goal. The better moderators are not at all shy about letting you know they have moved to sim. I think it very unreasonable of traders who insist that a moderator continue to endlessly trade throughout the day without some kind of stopping criteria. The concepts of over trading, pointless trading, mental fatigue, and plain stupidity come to mind if anyone thinks that trading without some kind of daily goal or quota is going to make you a better trader. On the contrary. So why should a moderator who trades his own money be forced to practice bad trading habits just because you as a member may have strolled into the trade room at 10:56 a.m. and want a winning trade? Well, guess what? By 10:56 a.m. most good traders are done for the day! So, once the daily goal is hit and if the moderator is any good, then you should not have any problems with his moving to sim. What's important is does he continue to call winning trades? Do the tools continue to give high probability setups? Can you see his trades? So, now you have a room you think is going to work for you. You took the trial, you signed up for 1 month. BTW, Do not accept a room where you are required to sign up for a longer specified term...this is bs. If the room is a good room then there should exist the confidence that you will be so pleased and satisfied that you will return of your own desire. Now, remember the part about trusting the moderator's trading? This is where it is important that you accept that fact and live with it. You are not going to catch every trade call...no matter what room you are in. Its just the way it is. Hesitation, you coughed just as the trade was called, a bug distracted you...whatever...its going to happen that you will miss a couple. So, the bottom line is that to get the most out of any trade room AFTER you have done your homework and decided is to take every room trade, period. Your homework should already have told you the performance expectation, the style of the rooms moderating trader, the basic methodology and trade setup rules, etc. Your job now is to learn the method and the setups in great detail, practice them under guidance, and make money while you learn. I have been in some pretty crappy rooms (now I know they were crappy) and some pretty decent rooms (of course these are the ones I abandoned because I did not have my own act together). Currently I do not need a trade room. If you are at that point then congratulations! If not, then even if you join any trade room, remember to look forward to the day when you can graduate and trade independently, consistently successfully, and live off the profits of your hard-earned accomplishment. --edabreu

Only those who refuse to trade in real time, with transparency, and instead are devoted to emptying the pockets of the naive. We have a chat room. Every vendor who advertises on TL and/or has a thread here is, I assume, welcome to use it.

Teaching somebody a system is not the same thing as teaching him how to trade. Since you had 100 subscribers as a signal vendor, why not provide signals to TL members as a complementary service? You could use the chat room and provide them in real time. That would be a nice draw for TL.

You're kidding, right? You're encouraging beginners to find some vendor who'll provide them with "signals"? Why not teach them how to read a chart and generate their own signals? Then perhaps they might have some small hope of success.

It may have cost that much two years ago, which is when the thread dried up. Now it costs $1500 for the "core" software, $1500 for the upgrade, $500-2500 for other upgrades, $250 and up for "classes" and $99/mo for the chat room (for clients only). That seems like a lot of money for something that seemingly no one is willing to trade real time. Since you're not interested in comments from anyone who doesn't like the product, why not just go ahead and buy it, then let us know the results of your experience? You may find that the thread dried up for good reason. Picks and shovels.

Keep in mind, though, that AAPL is not just any given individual stock. Along with GOOG, MSFT, QCOM and ORCL, it IS the Nasdaq. So following all five of these will give one some perspective on the Naz's future.

It'll happen to most of us eventually. But few want to think about it.

Abbot and Costello Laurel and Hardy Martin and Lewis Bob and Ray Hope and Crosby Amos and Andy Rowan and Martin

............................................................

No. There's no way of knowing. Look at today's action in the NQ. All one can do is follow the trend and the waves. Incidentally, those who do all their analysis in hindsight will give you all sorts of reasons why such and such did so and so, but ask them to do it in real time.