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DbPhoenix

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix

  1. DbPhoenix
    1. Break of the DL (not drawn) and FTB. 2. Rejection of R 3. Congestion
  2. DbPhoenix
    Three losing trades in a row is not the best way to start the day, but it happens. First off R, second LH, third DT. Fourth attempt was fine.
  3. DbPhoenix
    Three losing trades in a row is not the best way to start the day, but it happens. First off R, second LH, third DT. Fourth attempt was fine.
  4. DbPhoenix
    Just out of curiosity, has anybody calculated a ballpark win rate and profit percentage (assuming one contract) for the charts I've been posting the last couple of weeks? If anybody wants to play with it, remember that entries are stop limit and exits are market.
  5. DbPhoenix
    ...........................
  6. DbPhoenix
    ...........................
  7. DbPhoenix
    Probably a "trick" statement, since nothing has "predictive power", whether technical analysis or fundamental analysis, except perhaps that the market will always rise. Probabilities, on the other hand . . .
  8. DbPhoenix
    As I said above, I would not have expected this morning to be quite so boring. But trading began to come alive with the exit from the hinge (below). For the daily context, see yesterday's chart post. For the premkt, see chart 1. Chart 2 shows the opening gambits without the hinge so that the entries and exits can be more clearly seen. Since there were no RETs to speak of, I elected to enter off S/R reversals, as long as there was S/R to use. The hinge then formed, which is an overlay on Chart 3, which is otherwise identical to Chart 2. The last, of course, is the entire session, at least until I quit due to the volume dryup and the sideways trendlessness. Gee, it would be so much easier if S&R "worked".
  9. DbPhoenix
    As I said above, I would not have expected this morning to be quite so boring. But trading began to come alive with the exit from the hinge (below). For the daily context, see yesterday's chart post. For the premkt, see chart 1. Chart 2 shows the opening gambits without the hinge so that the entries and exits can be more clearly seen. Since there were no RETs to speak of, I elected to enter off S/R reversals, as long as there was S/R to use. The hinge then formed, which is an overlay on Chart 3, which is otherwise identical to Chart 2. The last, of course, is the entire session, at least until I quit due to the volume dryup and the sideways trendlessness. Gee, it would be so much easier if S&R "worked".
  10. DbPhoenix
    The forces of darkness have retreated.
  11. DbPhoenix
    I don't suppose it should come as a big surprise that this morning would be so boring after yesterday. But considering where we ended up, I expected more. And I was ready to quit at 1100. Then buyers finally got it together. Then price ricocheted off R. Now I'm stuck here until we turn trendless. *sigh*
  12. DbPhoenix
    A LH premkt and nothing much to stop it from heading all the way back to 10. Top of the TC is around 36.
  13. DbPhoenix
    Overbought and oversold conditions are always tricky because on the one hand you've got mean reversion to consider and on the other you have potential trend change. However, given the extent and duration of the trend in the ES, mean reversion may be the more likely outcome. And of course there's no need to rush into any trades. One can simply wait a few days to see how things go. And, no, Wyckoff doesn't say anything about mean reversion, but that's what balancing and a return to the middle and equilibrium are all about. There's nothing mysterious about it; it's just a standoff between buyers and sellers. This accounts for the uncanny parallelism in these trend channels. And the general misconception that TC lines provide "support and resistance".
  14. DbPhoenix
    They're both weeklies, the first the NQ and the second the ES. Looking only at the NQ and how this is the first time price has closed above the midpoint of the channel in quite some time, I'd've said there's a chance of moving all the way to the top of the channel. However, since the ES is now at the top of its channel, they may both reverse and make the return trips to the DLs. And a lot of people have been looking for a correction anyway. It may be an interesting day.
  15. DbPhoenix
    ................ L.o.l.r.?
  16. DbPhoenix
    But then I'm not afraid of it. Only so much can be done on message boards. I appreciate your comments.
  17. DbPhoenix
    I don't recall having said "conquer". That's not possible. And any effort to do so just sets up an internal conflict that may become intolerable (which takes us into the "discipline" thing again, but please let's not go there). But "letting it go" is a process, sometimes brief, sometimes extended, not just a foregone conclusion once the decision to let it go has been made. I have a Zen thread in the Wycoff Forum for good reason . Though whether or not anyone has ever benefited from it is another matter.
  18. DbPhoenix
    A timely post, given where the content has been going. And you're right. We are not all "fear-based". My views on fear and trading have only to do with that. Those who for one reason or another do not carry this baggage into their trading (most likely for the reasons you've listed) will be most able to "accept" -- to use John's terms -- the market and the trading situation as it is. Those who fail, however, at least in my experience (since '98, online at least), can't handle the failure, and whatever they do often only makes the situation worse, like trying to rescue a falling tray of glasses from one's fumbling. Steve also provides a good example of the kind of "method" that a trader with fear issues is more likely to be able to handle: relatively simple, straight-forward, easy-to-understand, free of mumbo-jumbo. It isn't what I do, but it has a surprisingly similar thrust.
  19. DbPhoenix
    Unfortunately, John, this structure too often implodes with the first loss unless one has comes to terms with the fear of loss (which needn't be a fear of loss per se). Once this happens, the trader can too often be subjected to a virtual cascade of negative emotions and the negative self-talk that goes with it. Those who have dealt with all this and come out the other side often think that conquering it is much easier than it really is. But it's anything but easy. Or simple, given the synaptic tangle we've developed by the time we begin trading.
  20. DbPhoenix
    Stopped soon after 1100. I ought to call this the anti-:shocked: method. Good job, buyers!
  21. DbPhoenix
    Stopped soon after 1100. I ought to call this the anti-:shocked: method. Good job, buyers!
  22. DbPhoenix
    ....................
  23. DbPhoenix
    I appreciate your being "with me", but I'm not sure you appreciate just what it is you're with. You may change your mind. If by "proving value of worth" you're referring to self-worth, you have a point. Many people enter trading because they want to demonstrate what winners they are, while many people enter trading because they want to demonstrate that they are not losers. All sorts of dynamics to play with there. But the central fear issue remains, and one cannot overcome it or control it unless and until he acknowledges the fact that it exists. Addressing this can open up a Pandora's Box, a state in which counselors, psychologists, and psychiatrists can do some observable good. As for testing, not so much. More observation. Just as failing traders tend to be obsessed with Where Do I Enter and Where Do I Exit rather than What Are Traders Doing And Why. Few traders have any interest in delving into all this, of course, which is why so few succeed. As someone once said (I can look it up if anybody cares), if you want enlightenment, you can sit in a cave with a Tibetan monk for a year, or you can daytrade the ES.
  24. DbPhoenix
    I'm not sure you understand what I'm saying, so you appear to be agreeing with the wrong thing. I don't know that I really want to get into this here, but, for the moment, I'll say this much. While you acknowledge fear, you also circumvent it, just as nearly everyone else does, including psychologists, and begin talking about risk (not unlike those who pooh-pooh simtrading because there's no "risk"). But it's not about risk; it's about fear. And the fear stems from a thorough lack of knowledge of what motivates price movement. Since the failing trader has no understanding of this (and, often, the individual who's trying to help him), he is forever seeking someone to follow, some method to use, some indicator to plot, even to the extent of using some mechanical and/or automated system. But, again, all this does is circumvent the central problem, a brace on a broken leg, morphine against the cancer. This is not unlike the manager who must deal with employees but has absolutely no idea how to do so, believing that taking a workshop or reading The One-Minute Manager will solve his problems. But they don't, because skills are not the problem, any more than "patience" and "discipline" are the central problems for the failing trader. Magee addressed this back in the forties. There may have been others before him, but so little of that survives, it's not always easy to trace these threads. It's tempting to suggest that systems and indicators have only made the problem worse because they hold the promise of enabling the trader to avoid addressing his fears for the foreseeable future. But of course they don't. Fear is far more central, and has been lurking in the shadows for millenia. Your quote about religion is apt, but it somewhat misses the mark. Fearful traders do approach trading in much the same way as the religious approach religion, the latter being motivated by a fear of death. There are rituals to perform, actions to be repeated, truths to be denied. In both cases, we "run" from that which we ought to embrace.
  25. DbPhoenix
    If you trade price action, your edge never fails.
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