Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
DbPhoenix
-
Content Count
3789 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Everything posted by DbPhoenix
-
A 30m bar chart of the week. Where do you enter?
-
No disrespect, but this is exactly the kind of post I referred to above. Gold can go up or down but buy it anyway. But not yet. Even to an investor, this sort of guidance is of little value. Whatever anyone does with his own money is none of my business, but given this little island that gold has created for itself, esp considering the levels at which it's taken place, anyone buying or shorting before gold shows its hand is gambling. We now return you to our regularly-scheduled programming.
-
I wouldn't say slipped right by. But no one here was interested. They were looking for buying ops and calling for 2100. Why pop somebody's balloon? As long as the swing highs and the swing lows occur at the same levels, that's how a range is defined. I agree, but nobody posted anything about it, so why seek an argument? This thread seems to consist of permabears and permabulls, both of whom are eventually right, at least temporarily. I prefer to look at what's happening in front of me, but, again, why seek an argument, particularly in threads made up primarily of hobbyists? In fact, I wouldn't be posting this now had zdo not asked who nobody was posting anything about technicals.
-
I must have missed the posts. True. Six months. Then HLs and HHs before that for six months. But that's what makes a trading range.
-
First chart: Took this shot yesterday evening and nothing has changed. We'll see what happens. Open: Traders so eager to short can't even wait for the opening bell. Failed to get filled twice. Recap: Really wasn't into it today, but here it is anyway. First short is off a RET after a breakdown through S. Second is off R. With these I don't wait for a RET because they usually take so long that by the time they occur you're already at S. Third trade is a RET off an HL and of course the break of the SL. There is then another test of R but I didn't take a short here because of the previous higher low. Could have taken it anyway and exited with a small loss, but it seemed to me that buyers were in charge, again because of the higher low, which made for a shorter sell wave. Next short is off a RET after the DL break. No subsequent op for a long bec no RET. Short after that is again off a RET after the DL break. Then it looked like we were getting into a TR and it was getting late and I was bored. So I quit. However, for the sake of closure, just after that we broke upward to the next level of R (third chart). This is interesting because we formed a little mini-TC which included an HL. Even though we were just below an R level, one could have taken a long there for an additional 9pts. Or he could have waited until price broke thru and taken a long off that little springboard for an additional 2pts. Looks easy in hindsight, but if you're bored and tired, it's not so easy. But that's how it would have played had it been traded. Win% 67, Profit% 94. Cum Win% 81, Cum Profit% 90.
-
I was wondering if anybody would notice that since I generally avoid breakouts. But it seemed highly unlikely that price would rebound given the circumstances, S or no S. And you'll notice that pause of agreement just before price breaks the swing low. That suggested that something was going to happen. It wouldn't have cost anything to bracket the trade, and I should probably tell you that I did, but I didn't, because a another rally didn't make any sense given the circumstances. But I should have anyway to set a good example. But I also thought that if price broke down it wouldn't futz around, and if I didn't take the breakdown it would very likely be nearly done before any sort of RET took place. And the risk was pretty much zip. So I took it. As for why I didn't enter the short earlier, there was no RET.
-
Out of the trading range, yes. And if one had been paying attention to what price was doing on the 8th and 9th, he would have been short on the 10th, not looking for a 20pt upside on the 12th. Since you asked. Now, of course, we're holding in a previous trading range that formed some time ago, but that is of course of no interest here, so whatever happens will likely be a surprise to those who aren't prepared.
-
Lack of interest? :shrug:
-
The percentage of traded points that were in profit. If you trade 10pts and nine of them are in profit, your profit % is 90. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Today was disappointing in that I knew what to look for and what to do when I saw it, but price zipped right past my entry. The "oversold" condition of a couple of days ago was not rectified the next day, and yesterday price dropped right back down to that level and below. This was not good. Buyers had today to step up to the plate, and they didn't. And since everyone was looking at this and many had written about it, I expected something reasonably decisive at or near the open, but not so decisive that I couldn't get a trade on. What could have done was enter premkt, but that's outside my risk tolerance on a day which is expected to be "volatile". In any case, thinking that there might conceivably be support at last night's swing lows and that buyers might actually show up and that sellers might be using this as an opportunity to profit from what might turn out to be a fakeout, I took the long opportunity. But buyers never showed up. So the LOLR was clear. Next support level was 38, but I wasn't going to wait and hope. 13pts was perfectly okay with me for 45m work. Win % 100, Profit % 100. Cum Win % 82, Cum Profit % 90.
-
I'm afraid you miss mine. If one is looking for shorting opportunities, he is far better off looking among issues that are in trouble, not issues that have been and are in strong uptrends. In any case, as I continued, "But even if one is open to the idea of shorting this stock in an assumption that it is going to travel to its long-term trendline, the entry is far too late. "The 'trick' is not to catch the trend but to anticipate it, and this is done after the stock breaks its very short-term trendline (the one that begins in February) and fails to make a higher high on March 14th (at the open, actually). Once that opportunity presents itself, all one has to do is sit. "The MAs, of course, are irrelevant, as would be any indicator." This was a poorly-considered and implemented trade, and a poor example of the "trend is your friend" point you were trying to make.
-
Cum Win=80, Cum Profit=89.
-
Interesting to see how price behaved when it reached the levels of support drawn above (two posts up), first bouncing off 2810, then dropping all the way to the trendline (and, again, trendlines don't offer support or resistance; price turned there because of the distance from the mean). It's particularly interesting to note how price behaved when it reached the trendline (second chart). It then launched itself into "oversold" territory and retreated back into the warmth and comfort of the trend (it currently sits at 2809). Of course, it could reverse again and plummet. But so far everything is panning out the way it usually does. Chart 3, Hourly Chart 4, 5m There were a half-dozen risk-free entries on the 5m yesterday after the bounce off 2770, even if one just set a cover stop and went to bed. I'm going to wrap it up early. Rarely have I seen buyers and sellers so evenly matched. Though I wasn't expecting fireworks today, this is rather pitiful, and if I weren't doing this for demonstration purposes, I probably wouldn't even have traded at all today. Plus there's the fact that here it is 1045EST and I'm the only one who's posted anything to TL, except for a few vendors, so I'm more or less talking to myself. For anyone who's keeping track, win % today was 33 and the profit % was 53 (cumulative win%, 78, profit %, 88).
-
....................
-
You're thinking about this too much. Instead of trading what's in front of you, you're wondering whether or not it's real. Just trade it, and you'll do better than most. Or overthink it and risk doing worse.
-
I don't know what Mr. Black is going for either, but whether or not TA is "crap" depends on how one defines it. If it is defined by the use of indicators (post-1950), then many people will agree that it is crap. If it is defined via patterns (post-1930), then many other people (or the same ones) will agree that it is crap. However, if it is defined as it was originally as the analysis of the imbalances between buying pressure and selling pressure (post-1750), then it is anything but crap since all of this derives from the Law of Supply and Demand, which is unavoidable. The Wyckoff Forum may help you "get a grip on it" if you're interested.
-
In order to avoid an unnecessary number of posts for each day's trading, I'm going to return to this and add to it as the need arises during the day. Therefore, even though you've "read it", come back to it for updates. First, a look at breadth. Second, the dailies. Third, the hourly. Fourth, 5m. Fifth, the trading session until 1130. Win 88%, Profit 90%. Those who want to track this arc from the beginning should click here, April 2nd. The cumulative win rate so far is 83.5% and the profit % is 91.
-
In terms of making money, it doesn't make the slightest bit of difference. The market can go up, down, or sideways (or, for extremely brief periods of time, it can stand still). If one knows how to tell the difference between up, down, and sideways, he can exploit -- i.e., profit from -- these movements. If he doesn't, or can't, then whatever profits he realizes will be purely accidental, if he profits at all.
-
A 30m bar chart of the week, for those who can't* daytrade: *are unable to due to time commitments
-
You're assessing it in hindsight. Read left to right, not right to left. Via replay.
-
Failure to Breach. (I see TradeRunner is watching my back)
-
The first FTB 2834, confirmed by the FTB 2831.
-
You just answered your own question. I've defined all this for myself. It's up to each trader to define it for himself. That's what makes it subjective. And why decisions made in real time aren't always as pretty as they are in the brochure. And why one must backtest all this, then forwardtest it in real time or via replay.
-
Where's the button? ..............
-
Activity slowed down dramatically at that point, and price drifted sideways for 15 minutes. This was not an energetic bounce off S of any kind other than 50% of the previous day's rally, which is always soft. And it was after 1100. I was bored.
-
1. Does it matter? 2. Hits R and reverses.
