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DbPhoenix
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix
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Too bad we no longer have Post of the Month. Or, in this case, Posts.
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First, you have to be careful how you define "mean". Second, you have to be careful what you're applying that definition to. Gold is a commodity. Apple is a stock. Then of course there are indices. And futures. Gold as a commodity is worth whatever people are willing to pay for it. Whatever it was a year ago or five years ago or ten years ago isn't particularly relevant, particularly since gold has little intrinsic value beyond its industrial use. Apple is a stock, and its intrinsic value is its book value, which is considerably less than its price at present. Then there are the indices, which are an amalgamation of all the stocks and so forth of which they are comprised. Therefore, you are probably better off looking to the past, where a great many people were interested in and willing to purchase as they may be interested in and willing to purchase at the same price again. With regard to gold we are in one of those ranges now. Whether people will eagerly buy here or eagerly unload what they have remains to be seen. Anticipate both outcomes.
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Yes, but not for posting. The three weeks of charts I did post are enough. But it's important to establish criteria for ranging. It was clear after the first two trades that price was going to be bound, so there was no point in getting chopped up until price exited from the congestion. That didn't happen until 1015, after which price began ranging again. But then 1100 rolled around. In any case, losses, if any, were minimal, as was risk, as always, if traded properly.
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TLers used to be fairly rigorous in their due diligence, key words being "used to be". In any case, beginners need to become familiar with the protocols. And that means putting in a little work instead of taking everything at face value. This is not to say that mobs of people will actually do the due. But it is, as I said, illuminating.
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For those who are following daily charts, the following may be helpful. The short and long are extrapolations of last week's charts. Given what's been posted elsewhere recently about trading price action being "nonsense", these charts have more than one purpose, including the four years' worth posted in the Foresight thread. Note that it is necessary to place the entry more than a point away from the trough or the peak of the RET unless one can afford a fairly wide stop.
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For those who are following daily charts, the following may be helpful. The short and long are extrapolations of last week's charts. Given what's been posted elsewhere recently about trading price action being "nonsense", these charts have more than one purpose, including the four years' worth posted in the Foresight thread. Note that it is necessary to place the entry more than a point away from the trough or the peak of the RET unless one can afford a fairly wide stop.
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I wonder how long it's going to take for someone, anyone, to go through 1a's posts on ET with a pad and pencil and figure out just how much he made over the past four years. It will be illuminating, particularly with regard to "mean reversion".
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Since so many people have been taught so much about volume that isn't true, it's easier to just skip it entirely and show people how to trade without it. If someone shows a knack for this approach, it's not difficult to incorporate volume later.
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You will very likely learn more about volume than you want to know by reading the volume thread. You should also know that I don't comment on Forex charts. Sorry.
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Perhaps, but without volume there's no way to say for sure.
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He lurks, but it's not likely he'll be back. Do a search of thales' posts from February.
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Price Action Patterns Do Not Mean the Market Isn't Random
DbPhoenix replied to 1a2b3cppp's topic in Technical Analysis
Gallows laughter, maybe. But I know what you mean. I read this story in '99, then again in '06. Anybody want to know how it ends? 1a says that "as far as [he's] concerned", markets are random. Nor can they be predicted. Given that he began trading at the very end of 2008 and that a few months later the market began the bull run that took it up 150%, he has not only been trading a highly directive market but also one that has been anything but random. In a bear market, the $70,000 drawdown he took (rescued by the market, not by his "method") would likely have killed him, if it had been real money. 1a began with the usual neophyte explorations and errors before finally determining that trading as if the market were random was the way to go. However, since the market was and continues to be anything but, he began with the wrong premise and thus learned the wrong lesson. This has been the way of beginners for centuries, hence Neill's comment that one should never confuse brains with a bull market. I remember well the screams of 2000 and 2007. One hopes that 1a will cash in his chips and spend his time learning how markets work. -
Price Action Patterns Do Not Mean the Market Isn't Random
DbPhoenix replied to 1a2b3cppp's topic in Technical Analysis
I can understand why you'd be upset over not getting your questions about the book answered at ET or here, but the ranting thing is not the best way to introduce yourself, particularly when you are insulting so many people, intentionally or otherwise. I never stop being amazed at how sure beginners are about everything. -
Price Action Patterns Do Not Mean the Market Isn't Random
DbPhoenix replied to 1a2b3cppp's topic in Technical Analysis
Missing a multi-hundred point upswing in a trading range because you're "bearish". "Trade what you see" is also an example if you include what you left out: "Not what you think." As for "do what price tells you to do", it's nonsense if only you don't understand what it means. It's unfortunate that you've been fucked over by gurus, software purchases, trading courses/DVDs/webinars/mentors/other gurus of one sort or another. But don't disparage how other people make a living simply because you don't understand it. The answers don't lie in trading forums. They lie in your own work. Same goes for everybody else. And none of it has anything to do with prediction. That's a loser's game. -
Price Action Patterns Do Not Mean the Market Isn't Random
DbPhoenix replied to 1a2b3cppp's topic in Technical Analysis
So. A fourth thread on this. Perhaps those who are interested in this random-non-random debate should instead turn their attention to the subject of trading the market vs trading one's ego, which is after all the basis for all the hand-wringing. -
Because few people understand it and it's not worth the trouble. See the charts I've been posting for the past three weeks.
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No, no indicators....
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Welcome. If you haven't read the Introduction, you may not know that this Forum is about Wyckoff's original course, not the SMI variation. Therefore, you may "know" some things that aren't true. As for this stock, concerning yourself with accumulation except in an academic way is probably a waste of time (the whole accumulation thing is a big deal among gurus and vendors who are trying to sell you something). In this case, since it formed a base for months without falling (though there was virtually no room to fall), one can assume that someone was supporting it. It then moved up very slightly, where is has been sitting for more months. So what you do about this depends on your "opportunity risk", i.e., the risk you assume by buying something that's going nowhere and preventing you from trading something that has better and more immediate prospects.
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The P&F thread is here.
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Let's stay with your original post and your original example since you must have put considerable thought into its content and chose the example based on how well it illustrated the contents of the post. But it is NOT in trouble at the daily interval. It is merely finding resistance at the top of the trend channel and reverting to the mean. One can use hourly bars to show the same thing. One can manufacture "weakness" by using MAs of one sort or another, but the MAs are in the viewer's head, not in the market. Therefore, instead of "The Trend Really Is Your Friend", you're are promoting trading counter-trend. In this example, however, it isn't even counter-trend. At best it is a pullback in an ongoing trend, and I assume you teach your students how to profit from that. The arrow here shows where you have suggested that the student short this stock: Note that if the student had taken your advice, he would not have earned even a point, since price was too strong even to reach the mean of the channel, i.e., the uptrending range. More likely he would have held on since he was assured that he was trading a "downtrend" and lost money instead. What should have been taught was how to buy a pullback in an uptrend. This would have earned considerably more than a point, in which case the trend really would have been his friend. Trading counter-trend is tricky even for someone who is experienced. For a student, it is very highly NOT recommended. But even if this was the purpose of your original post rather than what its title implies, you were, as I pointed out, way too late for a counter-trend trade.
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When the week begins, the left is all you have. There is no right. As for not being able to tell the trend, that isn't necessary. You know where resistance is and you have a trading range just below it. Therefore you either trade a break above that range, which would also be above R, or you trade a break below it. Surfing doesn't enter into it. If you want to wait for a trend, of course, that's fine. But you have one almost immediately. You even have a RET on the fourth bar. And if 30m bars are too fast for you, use a 60m bar instead, as I suggested. Or even larger. The principles are the same.
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But you won't know the weekly trend on Monday. What do you do on the 15th? And each day thereafter?
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Actually I was referring to the entire week, beginning with Monday. A 30m bar chart for the previous week was also posted, though anyone who is interested can convert these to 60m bars or 5H or 12H or whatever.
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A 30m bar chart of the week. Where do you enter?