Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
-
Content Count
3789 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Everything posted by DbPhoenix
-
Re the above post, price continues to move higher. The sideways move at the top of the trend channel enables us to fan the demand line which slightly alters the exit trigger. The attached chart illustrates all this, along with the entry point (in green). Since those who are interested in this know where to exit, no further updates will be made.
-
Why Successful Traders Use Fibonacci Retracements
DbPhoenix replied to tmbaru's topic in The Markets
I don't think there's any doubt about that. Continued success to you. -
Why Successful Traders Use Fibonacci Retracements
DbPhoenix replied to tmbaru's topic in The Markets
Well, I posted three weeks' worth of charts that illustrated a method which yielded a 79% win rate and 90% profit, and the resulting NQ trade is now 200pts in profit. That's after several years of profitable trading. But I guess it depends on how one defines "useful". -
Why Successful Traders Use Fibonacci Retracements
DbPhoenix replied to tmbaru's topic in The Markets
I don't "require" anybody to do anything, though if somebody posts an article that claims that successful traders use Fibonacci, I expect some sort of evidence to support that claim. As for proving a negative, what if I were to post a hundred charts which showed that Fib levels are completely irrelevant to price movement? What exactly would that prove? On the other hand, where are those hundred charts that prove that it does? As for "quality posts", I've made my share, and thirty years of looking at charts has earned me at least some privilege in expressing an opinion regarding what is pertinent and what is nonsense. If you disagree, put me on Ignore. -
Why Successful Traders Use Fibonacci Retracements
DbPhoenix replied to tmbaru's topic in The Markets
Sorry you're disappointed, but that doesn't alter the fact that I have yet to see any evidence whatsoever (other than anecdotal, which is hardly rigorous) that there is anything to this. Even the OP's own example doesn't address the topic. Rather than Forex, it's a Nasdaq stock. And price doesn't SAR at any of the levels he's drawn (though it should be noted that he qualifies his SAR by employing the qualifier "near", which also is hardly rigorous). Beginners need to learn how to read charts, not to head back to the crutch store for a shinier model with New and Improved Grip Tip which is just as likely to fail as every other model they've tried. -
Why Successful Traders Use Fibonacci Retracements
DbPhoenix replied to tmbaru's topic in The Markets
Given the number of levels, and how far the "bounce" can be from them and still "count", it would be next to impossible not to be successful trading them. Of course, it's also possible to trade successfully by putting on a tinfoil hat and receiving trading signals from Mars. -
Why Successful Traders Use Fibonacci Retracements
DbPhoenix replied to tmbaru's topic in The Markets
Depends on how you want to massage the numbers. Even so, your title implies that all successful traders use Fibs, and you repeat that assertion here. Since you have no evidence that ALL successful traders, Forex or otherwise, use Fibs, then the title of your article is incorrect and misleading. And some may wonder why it matters. So what? It matters because beginners read this stuff and can easily be misdirected into the sort of nonsense that prompts the often-deserved derision that so many non-technicians express for technical analysis. The market is not a seashell. -
Why Successful Traders Use Fibonacci Retracements
DbPhoenix replied to tmbaru's topic in The Markets
Why Successful Traders Use Fibonacci Retracement(s): A. I'm a successful trader and I think Fib levels are idiotic. B. 50% is not a Fib level. -
Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
DbPhoenix replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Why did you choose these two stocks? How did you go about selecting your entry point?- 2024 replies
-
- automated trading
- beginner
-
(and 76 more)
Tagged with:
- automated trading
- beginner
- bethlehem pa
- binary options
- binary options trading
- capitalization
- charlie mckelvey
- commodity stock tips
- commodity tips
- contrarian positions
- currencies
- day trading
- daytrading
- equity tips
- es-emini
- etf
- finance
- first day
- foreign currency
- forex
- forex accounts
- forex analysis
- forex forecasting
- forex trading
- forex webinar
- fundamentals
- furniture
- futures
- futures trading course
- international trade
- intro
- introduce
- introduce yourself
- introducing myself
- introduction
- investment
- java trading at
- learn forex trading
- london
- market analysis
- market forecasting
- markets
- momentum postions
- money
- money trader
- money trading
- new member
- newbie
- news
- options stocks
- philippines
- price
- price action
- price action trading
- real time
- sierra chart
- start
- startegy
- starting
- starts
- stock analysis
- stock education
- stock market beginners
- stock tips
- stocks and options
- stocks to watch
- system
- trader
- traders lab
- trading
- trading analysis
- trading live
- trading plan
- trading strategy
- univeristy of texas
- vinayak trader
- volatility
- volume
-
Which means in large part that one must do all the research on the underlying that he would ordinarily do PLUS all the research on the options choices. Which is why so few succeed at trading options. As in very few. As in almost none. Options are deceptively cheap. There's nothing cheap about something that causes a continual drip on the account balance.
- 14 replies
-
- master options trading
- options
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Anybody heard of Death By A Thousand Cuts?
- 14 replies
-
- master options trading
- options
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Now, mits. I think it's great that this guy has created software to beat the market. In fact, I'm surprised nobody has ever tried this before. I for one am eager to see how it all turns out. This may usher in a whole new era of trading. Seriously.
-
Ah, the other shoe . . .
-
In RT daytrading? No. On a 1t chart, maybe, but it's enough with a 1m to just follow the trend. On EOD? Yes. A trend channel is after all just a trading range on the diagonal. And a rejection of the MP of the channel is just as informative as a rejection of the MP of a TR. You can see this in the NQ since December, and you don't even have to draw any lines. This strength is one of the reasons why I was not surprised by the effort to catch up with the Nasdaq and the S&P (that trade is now past 2960, BTW).
- 4899 replies
-
Rarely do any of us grow up learning how to operate in an arena that allows for complete freedom of creative expression, with no external structure to restrict it in any way. In the trading environment, you will have to make up your own rules and then have the discipline to abide by them. The problem is, price movement is fluid, always in motion, quite unlike the highly structured events that most of us are accustomed to. In the market environment, the decisions that confront you are as endless as the price movements you intend to take advantage of. You don't just have to decide to participate, you also have to decide when to enter, how long to stay in, and under what conditions to get out. There is no beginning, middle, or end - only what you create in your own mind. MD
-
Price Action Patterns Do Not Mean the Market Isn't Random
DbPhoenix replied to 1a2b3cppp's topic in Technical Analysis
So no trades, huh? None at all. Not one. In all these years. Oh, well. A copy of our home game for the kid here, Alex. And thank you so much for playing. Tell your mom you've earned an extra hour playing WOW. -
Price Action Patterns Do Not Mean the Market Isn't Random
DbPhoenix replied to 1a2b3cppp's topic in Technical Analysis
Okay, I'll make this so simple that even you can understand it. I have the trades. You don't. You’ve surrounded yourself in a fog of pseudo-intellectual babble regarding what you think you know or what you’ve heard about trading and you do provide convincing patter, but you have yet to provide any evidence that you trade. Or can. You may know someone who trades. You may even have a job in a trading office. But that job may be limited to emptying wastebaskets and making coffee. If you’re such a knowledgeable and talented and skilled trader, where are the trades? Or are you limited to making profound statements that you read somewhere? -
Price Action Patterns Do Not Mean the Market Isn't Random
DbPhoenix replied to 1a2b3cppp's topic in Technical Analysis
So you don't know what a rule is, you don't know what volume is (I guess you haven't reached those chapters yet), and you can't provide a link to a single foresight trade for as long as you've been a TL member (3 years). I, on the other hand, have an entire thread devoted to foresight trading, and I'm currently in an NQ trade that was called the Friday before it broke out to the upside. And still going. One trade. What was it you got those 160 thanks for? -
Price Action Patterns Do Not Mean the Market Isn't Random
DbPhoenix replied to 1a2b3cppp's topic in Technical Analysis
That's a rule? And those trades are where? -
Price Action Patterns Do Not Mean the Market Isn't Random
DbPhoenix replied to 1a2b3cppp's topic in Technical Analysis
No suggestion of a rule. Just a suggestion that people define their terms before going on the attack. Like learning what TA is. And how to read charts. As for the rest of the blah blah, perhaps you could illustrate with one of the many trades you've posted over the years. Where are they again? And hindsight doesn't count. -
There's no rule about it. If you're trading real time, it's not difficult to determine where the swing begins. If it can't be done, no big deal. The 50% is just another factor to employ.
- 4899 replies
-
Price Action Patterns Do Not Mean the Market Isn't Random
DbPhoenix replied to 1a2b3cppp's topic in Technical Analysis
So why bring up "sales pitch" at all? It's so far out in left field it's in the parking lot. I don't have to "look at myself" to see that. -
Price Action Patterns Do Not Mean the Market Isn't Random
DbPhoenix replied to 1a2b3cppp's topic in Technical Analysis
Seeker, you're carrying disingenuity to an extreme. Asking whether or not something is a sales pitch is little different from implying that it is. Otherwise, there would be no point in asking the question. Perhaps if you had been less aggressive in your original question, Steve would not have responded in kind. FWIW, I don't agree with Steve either, but since I've gone into this many times over the years to little effect, I can understand his impatience with questions like this. If you believe that volume does not lead price, then state your opinion and provide your evidence. If you have no evidence, then don't expect others to provide what you won't. Or can't. -
I can't answer that. I don't use indicators and the approach you present is different from that addressed in the content thread. Since the ES is generally mean-reverting, it's unlikely that the approach presented in the content thread would be of much benefit.
- 4899 replies
-
If you're referring to the profit %, none. As I said in the introductory post, the profit % has to do with how many points traded resulted in profit. The degree of profit is not considered. If you're asking about the impact of commissions on trading a small interval such as the 1m vs a large interval such as the daily, total commissions would of course be higher with the former. However, profits, if any, will depend entirely on the skill of the trader. Scalping is no more a guarantee of monetary success than is trading a 15m bar or a weekly bar. Our current NQ long is 170pts in profit with only one commission, but a bad daily trade can easily be counterbalanced by a series of successful intraday trades, regardless of commissions.
- 4899 replies