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Everything posted by DbPhoenix
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Start with Wyckoff's Day Trader's Bible, attached as a pdf below. Then, Techniques of Tape Reading Tape Reading and Market Tactics DTB, 1919.pdf
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It might, but I dont do P&F. What matters most, though, is getting a great price and making money with as little risk as possible. If P&F helps you do that, go for it. Db
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This doesn't specifically address your particular question either, but it does illustrate what I mean by "opening up the bar". R here was at 1820 (still is, as far as that goes). Price hit that pre-market and slid down to this level from there. It ran into some trouble at 1814, then again at 1812. After the open, you got this big honking marubozu heading back to 1812 again, but that got reversed real quick (in a longer timeframe, those two bars would be "blended" to give you the inset result, a shooting star or gravestone or whatever you want to call it). Now how would you know this was coming? And would you short? "Volume", after all, was less on the downbar than the upbar. And if you did short anyway, where? 1807? Now let's pop the hood and see what's inside. Note that the big volume on the way up to 1812 results in bupkus. No progress at all. This is heavy selling (within context). And what happens to volume as price stretches toward R? And if you follow the TICKQ, you'd also note that it's been falling from 0930 all the way down to 0935. So now where would you short? .
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Well, the short answer is that you don't know. Aren't you glad you asked? It depends on what you're trading and how vulnerable it is to support and resistance issues. You can't know it's the "top" until afterwards, which isn't going to do you any good. But if price reaches resistance of some sort and this stalling goes on, you're in a better position to understand what professional money -- or even other retail traders -- is up to (note I call it professional rather than "smart", because it isn't always). It also depends on where the rally starts and what it starts from. If you're talking about a big-time accumulative base, then you've probably got legs. But if it's just a fart of some sort or other, then you very likely don't. What Wyckoff referred to as effort and result. Not much effort, not much result. Lots of effort, you ought to get lots of result. And if you don't, then something's up. But if you know where R is and price is fast approaching and volume suddenly increases, then you're getting a lot of selling going on. If demand is able to absorb all this and push price higher anyway, fine. But if buyers are struggling under the weight, best know where the exits are. So if you want to know what buyers and sellers are doing within that 1m bar, you're going to have to look inside it. If you can do that by watching price bob up and down along that 1m pole while also watching volume inch up, or not, that's fine. But I suggest you plot a 5s chart underneath so that you're not quite so separated from their activity. I transferred the Springboard information from t2w to my blog here. It's not quite what you're referring to, but it does take a scalpel to the bar and opens up its insides for all to see. It may help you understand what I'm talking about, even though it may not specifically address your particular question. Db
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
DbPhoenix replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Rather than take up any more space on this thread, I've elected to open a blog. I hope that this will work out the way I want it to, particularly with regard to images (I've been waiting for over a year for t2w to provide for image uploads in its blogs and am still waiting). If it does, everything will be in one place and I can avoid getting in people's hair. Please take time to read the introductory entry. Hasta.- 2244 replies
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It appears my editing window has closed. In lieu of providing so many offsite links, I've elected to open a blog. If it works the way I hope it will, everything will be in one place. To begin, I've uploaded the preview of the book to the blog. This may save at least some time for those who are interested in it. Enjoy.
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Thanks for the welcome. Here's the link to the preview of the "book". I suggest you look it over before making any commitments. http://www.trade2win.com/boards/313957-post.html
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
DbPhoenix replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
I feel a bit like Neelix stumbling upon a colony of Talaxians . . .- 2244 replies
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Consider, Sledge, that price is continuous, as is volume (that is, trading activity). Therefore, there is no "close", at least until everybody goes home and turns out the lights. What we perceive as a close is merely a function of whatever bar interval (time, range, constant volume, etc) we choose to display the movement of price and is entirely irrelevant to that flow. What matters more are the ebb and flow and their character: pace, extent, range, etc. To better see this ebb and flow, you may want to use an even smaller interval. A tick chart may look like flies circling over poop, but something like a 5-second chart will enable you to see this ebb and flow without being distracted by the OHLC. Once you become attuned to this, you'll detect the flow even in an hourly or daily or weekly chart. Some will object, of course, that whatever goes on in these teeny tiny timeframes is "noise" and is irrelevant to the larger, more "important" moves, but this is akin to saying that ocean currents are noise and irrelevant to the larger, more important moves. It all starts somewhere, and the trader who is attuned to these seemingly insignificant changes in price movement is going to be virtually shockproof when price suddenly starts hellbent in some new direction. Db
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
DbPhoenix replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Thanks to all. It's difficult to know whether or not one's efforts are having any effect if he gets little or no feedback. I mention this in the introduction to the book, but it bears repeating outside, that the reason for the pdf files in lieu of the standard format is so that the reader can structure the book however he likes. Some of it is going to be of no interest whatsoever to the day trader, some will be of no interest to the futures trader, some will be of no interest to the fundamentalist, etc. So it can be quite specific as well as quite broad. Not that there isn't a place for works such as Change Your Life with MACD, but I never planned on doing this more than once, preferring instead to offer contact with those who are interested so that the work becomes a beginning rather than an end. Which is why I keep coming up with new threads every now and then. It's a little creepy to think that there are people copying down everything I do and sticking it in a notebook somewhere, but I do the same thing, though much more when I started than now (eventually it all becomes distilled into a relatively few principles and practices, and the volumes of material sort of combine into a universal mayonnaise). Perhaps one of these individuals will be clever enough to one day sort it all out and put it into a pdf (at which point I'll likely respond with I said That? I don't agree with that at all . . . ). Db- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
DbPhoenix replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
PV does seem to be less of a mystery here . . .- 2244 replies
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
DbPhoenix replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Greetings! I learned today that I'm being talked about over here, so I thought I should make myself available. A couple of people have provided links to threads of mine, but I should let those who are interested know that I abridged the 1000+ post PV thread to around 55. It has the same title with "abridged" on the end. I also recently posted a thread on springboards called -- you guessed it -- The Springboard. This is all in the Price Volume Forum. As to my book, I wouldn't call it a "VSA" book, though its focus is on trading by price and, if at all possible, volume. Anyone interested in it really ought to read the preview, which includes a table of contents, before plunking down any money. That's posted on t2w as well. See ya. Db- 2244 replies
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