DbPhoenix

In and of itself, no, it doesn't. You may want to review them. Or become acquainted with Sperandeo.

Which signifies what?

And you consider this to be well defined, thoroughly tested, and consistently profitable?

Zeon, what you're doing is not real-time analysis. Instead you're asking, in so many words, can I short now? can I short now? You have yet to break the trendline. If you have some sort of well-defined and thoroughly-tested setup that allows you to short with confidence here, then explain in detail what it is. Otherwise, you're just guessing.

That's largely up to the trader, though it has nothing to do with The Force. At the very least, each trader should define for himself the difference between a retracement (or pullback or reaction or whatever) and a reversal. Whether one is a scalper or swing trader or position trader or whatever has nothing to do with whether he's trading or gambling. If he's trading randomly, he's gambling. At the very least, one must have made a clear distinction between reversal and retracement (above). He must also have a clear definition of exactly what will invalidate whatever setup he's implementing. Of course, it also helps to be able to make a clear distinction between "up" and "down". A surprising number of traders have trouble with this (witness the popularity of moving averages).

All correct, as far as it goes. So why short at 47.75?

You're regressing to the realm of the hypothetical again. We were talking about today. Real time, the subject of the thread, is today. As to whether or not there's a reason to short, that depends on what your reasons are to short.

Of course. It's hardly the market's fault if the trader can't hear. Today, for example, we have yet to meet the conditions for a reversal. To short without having those conditions met is gambling, not trading. Closer than most traders would expect.

RULE#5: Sometimes others get to play and you don't... But the most important thing is this: you must be comfortable with this - welcome it. Make peace with this idea. Cross your arms and sit back. It is silly to try to catch every swing or worry about missing a move. There are thousands of markets out there and we are missing a play ALL THE TIME. The objective is to execute the business plan with precision over a long run. Precision = Speed. Marginal, wild, random trading will only bring chaos into the statistical equation. There are also internal reasons not to play. The poker adage H.A.L.T (Hungry, Angry, Lonely, Tired) basically says that if you can't play with a smile, don't play at all. And scared money rarely wins. (William)

Yes, he would, if his conditions for a short were met. If his conditions were met and he were stopped out anyway, then his conditions are incorrect. And what are my rules?

If by "DT", you mean downtrend, that's not a downtrend until you have a lower high.

Whether or not there is a "rise" in trading activity is in itself irrelevant. What matters is the dynamic between buyers and sellers and its influence on price. I assume that even VSAers would agree with that. As for when to exit a trade when actual S or R are unclear, what did I say about TDs and trendlines and higher lows/lower highs? And, incidentally, I'm not long today. Price bounced off S at 3 o'clock this morning, and I wasn't about to jump in 35 points later.

No difficulty at all because, yet again, these are only potential levels of S/R. I monitor the balance between buyers and sellers at each of these levels and act accordingly, even if that means not acting at all. I don't "try to trade" anything. I focus on what the market is telling me. If you never get past this, you're never going to understand it.

Drawing them in advance without the "pressure" of the live market is the whole point of preparing for the day. And, yes, I spotted your original question, but you must have missed erie's and my responses to it. Without context, what you have is just bars on a page, and shorting at 47.75 or thereabouts is essentially a jump in and hope for the best entry.

Actually, it's both. However, the baggage that one brings to the task will in large part determine how he addresses it. Someone coming from an MP background, for example, will likely have far less trouble understanding this than someone from a VSA background. Incidentally, R levels -- again shown on the chart I posted last week -- are 46, 48, and 50, eventually 60.

Again, I've never suggested "blind" entry or exit at S/R. The predetermined levels are only potential S/R, and the trader must apply what he knows regarding demand/supply dynamics to the activity that takes place at those levels. If he doesn't understand those dynamics, then he will have no idea what to look for. This is why zeon is continuing to have so much trouble. And, again, explaining those dynamics and what to look for at the various S/R levels was the point of my making those Blog entries. Your note to Erie regarding determining in real time whether potential S/R is going to become actual S/R is of course critical to trading S/R successfully. If one learns how to do that, the hit rate of this approach is unusually high, and there are few stopouts. But if he tries to trade this via a list of instructions, the trader will not only be stopped out regularly but will also spend most of his time on the wrong side of the trade.

That's why I said "at or around". Point is that the day began at support and the long side was first up in the queue.

That's because you're placing "resistance" incorrectly. Nor, apparently, are you paying any attention to support (which would have placed you in a long trade at or around 1315). I should also point out that each resistance level shown on the chart I posted last Friday and reiterated yesterday was hit exactly.

These questions are what the three weeks' worth of real-time commentary in my Blog were intended to address. Since your particular chart does not show where the S/R levels or zones came from nor provide volume, it's impossible to answer your particular questions -- at least from the standpoint of how I detect the turns -- using only this chart. If you're genuinely interested in this, I suggest you review the charts posted in Dailies in my Blog and ask specific questions about specific charts. In this way, you'll be better able to transfer whatever you learn to whatever it is you're trading.

RULE #4: Don't feel like a martyr when folding. Don't start feeling self-righteous about all this folding you are doing... as if now it owes you (because you've been so good, so disciplined, so patient...). This is a trap... As you keep folding, you must feel neutral about it. (William)

As I've asked several times, why do you continue to trade this if you don't understand it? Study it. Try to understand it. If and when you think you understand it, then paper-trade it. If you never understand it, then don't try to trade it. You're never going to understand the object if your entire focus is limited to what you're going to do about the object. The former is about the object. The latter is about you. This is not about you.

33.5-34 and 33-34.5.

Simply a variety of ways of describing the same thing. The common theme in everything I've posted is price and volume and the dynamics between demand and supply, or buyers and sellers, or buying pressure and selling pressure. It's all the same thing. Beyond that, one looks for those areas where price is trending and where it's "balancing" or seeking equilibrium. These areas or "zones" of balancing present potential levels of support and resistance. I've posted dozens of charts with support and resistance lines above and below these zones. All one has to do to make a box is plot vertical lines on either side of the zone. If one doesn't understand how or where to locate these zones of greatest trading activity or highest volume, he can plot volume at price. If that makes no sense either, he can try the MP software. What one calls all of this is irrelevant. The objective is to locate those areas where the greatest trading activity has taken place. One can then draw lines above and below it, color it, draw a circle around it, draw a box around it. Doesn't matter. What matters is locating the zone. That's what I had been doing for three weeks in my Blog. As for today's numbers, those were derived from the chart I posted last Friday. One can, of course, limit himself to "points" and "levels" without regard for where those points and levels lie. But if they don't work, the logical conclusion is that they don't represent support and resistance after all. This is a chart I posted several weeks ago. The only difference is that I've enclosed the zones: . .

FWIW, using the volume range "boxes" from my Blog, the first resistance area is 23-23.25 and the second is 26.5-.75.

RULE #3: If you've been folding a lot, for a long time in the game, and you're starting to think that maybe it's time you got in and played a few hands again -- that's not a good enough reason. Keep folding. The level beyond this is having no desire to act inappropriately- to be so immersed in the moment and the process that time does not exist and thus impatience does not exist. Great traders have rituals they enjoy for their own sake, a method and a habit that acts as its own reason for being. When you have this mindset, impatience goes away; whatever is in front of you becomes too engaging to worry about what you aren't doing or could be doing. The amount of time a trader should be willing to wait for a good trade is infinite, because with the correct mindset the trader isn't actually “waiting” in the traditional sense; being and experiencing yes, waiting no. (darkhorse)