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DbPhoenix
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix
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Of course it is. The job of a trendline is to show trend. The trend is down. The discussion here, however, appears to be confused between trend and S/R. Trendlines don't provide S/R. That's not their job.
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A re-post of the macro above, with the demand line extended:
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I don't trade forex, but perhaps nic can help you.
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Your trendline should be higher:
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One picture, a thousand words, yada yada Please note that these boxes were drawn before and posted by Sunday evening. .
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Looking at what's currently available re Wycoff's work, I notice a book I hadn't seen before: Stock Speculation Classics. I've never heard of most of the people included, but 24 titles which include Wyckoff's Stock Market Technique #2 and Neil's Tape Reading and Market Tactics, all for $24.95, is a hell of a deal.
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Looking at what's currently available re Wycoff's work, I notice a book I hadn't seen before: Stock Speculation Classics. I've never heard of most of the people included, but 12 titles which include Wyckoff's Stock Market Technique #2 and Neil's Tape Reading and Market Tactics, all for $6.95 used, is a hell of a deal. Unfortunately, there's only one copy. But a little googling should find other copies elsewhere in case this is gone by the time you get there.
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If you enjoy "market books" in general, and classic market books specifically, and if you're looking primarily for trading advice and "wisdom", then you will likely find all of these books enjoyable. However, if you're looking for specifics on how to implement Wyckoff's ideas, you will likely be disappointed. Those of Wyckoff's books which are available are useful primarily for preparing you mentally for the nuts and bolts of creating and developing a trading strategy based on his ideas. But, contrary to what you might expect, the best book to help in implementation is one written not by Wyckoff but by Jack Hutson, Charting the Stock Market, even though some believe that it goes into too much detail and can be intimidating. There is also mine (click "My Blog", below). Therefore, if you can obtain these books without spending too much money, buy them, read them, enjoy them. But don't expect a course.
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It's available from the Library of Congress (it was never put into book form, as was common back then with regard to courses, which is why so many of them are lost to us). The basics of the basics are provided here in the stickies. Section 1M, the Introduction, is skipped, as are Section 4M, Volume Studies (though this particular section is posted elsewhere), and Section 6M, Chart Studies. Section 7M, to which you referred, acts as a sort of summary of what's been addressed up to that point in the course. Section 8M, which focuses on comparing strengths among groups, has its own thread. Therefore, regardless of what you decide to do with regard to the entire course, I suggest you read and reread and rereread the first three stickies to become at least acquainted with the underlying concepts, then study the fourth, the analysis of 1930-31, which acts as an illustration through application. If you're intrigued, go on into Volume Studies and Comparing Group Strengths. After that, review the posts which, for the most part, have to do with application (this post and this post in particular may provide some illumination). Then put in your own screentime (which can't be avoided, no matter how much you read or how much you spend) and try to apply what you've learned (or think you've learned) in real time. The process of learning how to trade this -- or any other approach -- is involved. More detail on this process can be found in The Trading Journal and The Trading Log.
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If you enjoy "market books" in general, and classic market books specifically, and if you're looking primarily for trading advice and "wisdom", then you will likely find all of these books enjoyable. However, if you're looking for specifics on how to implement Wyckoff's ideas, you will likely be disappointed. Those of Wyckoff's books which are available are useful primarily for preparing you mentally for the nuts and bolts of creating and developing a trading strategy based on his ideas. Therefore, if you can obtain these books without spending too much money, buy them, read them, enjoy them. But don't expect a course.
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Though to avoid misunderstanding, I should point out again that I don't personally find it useful. This is not to say that it's worthless or that many people don't profit from its use. Perceptual differences among traders are not uncommon.
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At the moment, no. The chapters posted here, as noted, are from the original. The SMI adaptation of it is available, but it runs around $1000. If you're interested in that, links are provided in the Wyckoff Resources thread. If you're not, study the chapters posted here which, for the most part, focus on the fundamental concepts. Then review the posts which, for the most part, have to do with application. Then put in your own screentime (which can't be avoided, no matter how much you read or how much you spend) and try to apply what you've learned (or think you've learned) in real time. The process of learning how to trade this -- or any other approach -- is considerably more involved, however.
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Doesn't necessarily mean a wider stop. There were several subsequent places to enter, if you're using a 1m chart or less. And if you choose your entry properly, you can still use a tight stop.
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Depends on what you consider to be a green light. R was rejected at 9:30:30. One could short that. Or one could wait for the bars to calm down and short somewhere between 0945 and 0950. How much does one trust what he sees? How much is he expecting to be trapped? How much confirmation is he looking for?
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After dropping back into the box drawn above on the NQ micro, the NQ found resistance at the top of the box premarket. Shorting here was a by-the-numbers drill sort of entry. Automatic. But whether one has or has not read the "dailies" posted to my Blog (below), he may be wondering what to do now. It's been a long and steady climb from 1950 with not too many consolidations along the way. So, what's the "target"? We've already dropped below the low of the aforementioned box, and the top of the next one is at 2000, and while that's not impossible, we've already dropped twenty points intraday. If one goes by a VAP plot (which, I assume, would be similar to a Market Profile plot), the bottom of the range lies around 1985-1990. The bottom of the longer-term range is all the way back to 1950. So where to exit? And here's where the trendlines and swing points I've referred to come in. If one has no idea -- or too many ideas -- where to find the opposite end of his trade (resistance if he's long, support if he's short), he can either guess and more often than not wind up cutting his profits much too short, or he can resign himself to giving up a few points at the turn and using trendlines and swing points to tell him when to get out. In hindsight, of course, he can locate that elusive reversal signal, or that so-called "no supply" bar, but in real time there are plenty of reversal signals and loads of "no supply" bars, and if he isn't trading counter-trend throughout, he will at least get out too soon. Currently, we are hovering at the top of the range created on 5/20 and 21 (also the midpoint of the longer-term box drawn on the NQ macro*). Is this going to be support or not? Is it going to be enough the reverse the movement? If you don't know, rely on your trendlines and swing points. Or just guess and get out. *Edit: I should also point out that this level (2000 +/-) is also the midpoint of the entire move up from 1950 to 2050.
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Multiple resistances lining up on the NQ, macro and micro: If you plot VAP (volume-at-price), you'll note that the micro is at the upper limit of its range, which coincides with the midpoint of November's range (which is part of a range going all the way back to July). I suspect that a market profile chart would illustrate the same resistances. And the macro and micro for the ES:
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So, my suspicions are confirmed at last: Bertie doesn't know enough to come in out of the rain.
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You must have said something awfully convincing to Richard..... In any case, I don't have nearly enough gold dots, and I come first
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Just a reminder, with regard to all these midpoints. The midpoint of that long upmove from 1950 to 2050 (on the NQ) -- and of course the midpoint of the 100% retracement -- is 2002 (+/-), which is where we're sitting right now. Supposedly, if we can't hold here, that suggests weakness. OTOH, if we can hold above, that suggests strength.
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Yes, I have. There are all sorts of "modern" approaches that are based on these "congestion" zones, including the Darvas Box. It's something like a family tree, tracing everything back to Dow, Wyckoff, Schabacker (and Homma, if one wants to include candlesticks). But I find more clarity in the source material than in the adaptations. Sort of like the difference between the simple marinara served to the staff (tomatoes, basil, garlic, olive oil) and the elaborate multi-ingredient designed-to-impress concoctions served to the patrons.
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Not really. Over the years, I've been unable to find a correlation among the indices that's high enough to rely on except in a most general way, even with EOD trading. The Nasdaq tends to be independent, which is why I like to trade it. But that's also the very reason why many people prefer not to.
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No, I haven't. But Donald Mack resurrected his "Course in Trading" from the dead. It's out of print again, but available used on Amazon.
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Like Market Profile, it depends on how the trading ranges relate to each other. For example, if you refer to the chart I posted at #34, above, and look to the range formed on the 20th, you'll see that price dropped out of that trading range and fell to 1957-58. If price had returned to that range and stalled around the midpoint, I would have thought that it was a return to the "value area" and that the midpoint was most likely just a midpoint, or POC. But price instead stayed where it was and formed a new trading range, beginning with the afternoon of the 21st. When price dropped out of that one on the 23rd, the next trading range was just below it yet also a part of it. Its upper level coincided with the midpoint of that previous range. Thus when price moved to the upper level of the range formed on the 23rd, it was also approaching the midpoint of the previous range. This made that midpoint something else, possibly just a midpoint, but possibly resistance. If the latter, watching for a break of it as an opportunity to go long made sense. And, as explained in post #34, that opportunity presented itself. Currently, it appears that we are forming another trading range since today's low corresponded to yesterday morning's swing high, and since today's high corresponds to the high of the trading range for the 20th and 21st, that may be important tomorrow as well.
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Paint Shop Pro.
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But as trendie pointed out, only 18,000 have logged on within the last 60 days. Getting people to sign up is no great trick. Hanging on to them is another matter. I wouldn't be crowing about losing more than 80% of the membership.
