Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
DbPhoenix
-
Content Count
3789 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Everything posted by DbPhoenix
-
Today's charts. There are two due to the compression of the open that would result if the entire downmove were charted without segmentation.
-
Today's charts. There are two due to the compression of the open that would result if the entire downmove were charted without segmentation.
-
The probability that we would have another V reversal at the same place two days in a row was slim to none. As for the LL, looks to me like it's around 3485.
-
There's no need to repost the macro charts of the last few days; they all still apply. I do, however, want to point out that price has been hovering around the mean of yesterday's downmove. This will very likely mean that we do nothing all morning. Or we could take a shot at the UL of the March TC at 3605. Or we could drop to the LL, wherever that might be (FWIW, I'm going to go with 45 again; we'll see what price does if and when it gets there). Otherwise, it will be an SLA day without benefit of AMT.
-
There's no need to repost the macro charts of the last few days; they all still apply. I do, however, want to point out that price has been hovering around the mean of yesterday's downmove. This will very likely mean that we do nothing all morning. Or we could take a shot at the UL of the March TC at 3605. Or we could drop to the LL, wherever that might be (FWIW, I'm going to go with 45 again; we'll see what price does if and when it gets there). Otherwise, it will be an SLA day without benefit of AMT.
-
It helps. However, my focus was the mean of the March trend channel. The confluence of the three says something about the balance between demand and supply.
-
Today's chart: It should be clear from the inset that one who views a chart in hindsight receives a very different picture from one who views it in real time. This is why those who are interested in this are encouraged to replay the charts, from the beginning, and work forward rather than try to analyze a static picture. Edit: As an extension to the chart below, I'm adding the next hour to show how the reversal played out acc. to the SLA/AMT. One could, of course, have played the reversal and entered at 51, but most prefer to play it safe and enter on the first retracement.
-
Today's chart: It should be clear from the inset that one who views a chart in hindsight receives a very different picture from one who views it in real time. This is why those who are interested in this are encouraged to replay the charts, from the beginning, and work forward rather than try to analyze a static picture. Edit: As an extension to the chart below, I'm adding the next hour to show how the reversal played out acc. to the SLA/AMT. One could, of course, have played the reversal and entered at 51, but most prefer to play it safe and enter on the first retracement.
-
All you have to do is follow the protocol. For the time being, I'll move your posts to the Off-Topic file. If and when you decide to open up a journal, I'll transfer them there. However, if you continue to pursue whatever it is you're pursuing rather than follow the protocol, there's really no point in your posting here. If that seems brusque, sorry, but I don't want another 1000-post thread that goes nowhere.
-
Did you trade it? ........................
-
1010: Bounced off the March mean near 40.
-
No, it doesn't count if you do it in advance. Getting back to business, I don't believe I ever posted a chart of the next-older TC from March. If I did, I can't find it. In any case, here is an updated copy. Note that we are well back within the limits of the March channel. That deep and extended oversold period drags the mean down, so it may actually be lower than drawn. But I've learned not to play with this stuff too much, so I'll leave it as is until the mkt tells me different. And in case anybody's wondering, the original short is now worth 64pts. The second short is worth 61.
-
No, it doesn't count if you do it in advance. Getting back to business, I don't believe I ever posted a chart of the next-older TC from March. If I did, I can't find it. In any case, here is an updated copy. Note that we are well back within the limits of the March channel. That deep and extended oversold period drags the mean down, so it may actually be lower than drawn. But I've learned not to play with this stuff too much, so I'll leave it as is until the mkt tells me different. And in case anybody's wondering, the original short is now worth 64pts. The second short is worth 61.
-
The LL, of course, is around 3580.
-
A DT and a Dog. Here we go again. 0931: And here we are at 3600.
-
All this could have been done yesterday evening. This is the same chart posted over the last two days.
-
SO, but still a good trade. You never know. Now we wait for the opening reconciliation. 0929: A DT and a Dog. Here we go again. 0931: And here we are at 3600. The LL, of course, is around 3580.
-
The purpose of the prep, of course, is to find these opportunities before they happen. It isn't possible to trade hindsight.
-
Oversold. OB=overbought.
-
Unusual to post essentially the same chart three days in a row: 0837: While most do not like to trade pre-market for some reason, I should point out here that we came within 2pts of the UL after the Claims reports. This provided a legitimate short op. Whether it succeeds or not is of course unknowable. (Edit: short entry came 17m later) 0910: Rather than post another chart, I'll just point out that the mean of this channel is around 3600, which we are rapidly approaching. If we get there, that will provide a 14pt profit before the opening bell.
-
Unusual to post essentially the same chart three days in a row: 0837: While most do not like to trade pre-market for some reason, I should point out here that we came within 2pts of the UL after the Claims reports. This provided a legitimate short op. Whether it succeeds or not is of course unknowable. (Edit: short entry came 17m later) 0910: Rather than post another chart, I'll just point out that the mean of this channel is around 3600, which we are rapidly approaching. If we get there, that will provide a 14pt profit before the opening bell.
-
If you move the LL, then you lose all the OS information. You're drawing these lines in hindsight. If they are going to be of any use, you have to draw them left to right, not right to left. You may want to open up a journal if this is to be ongoing.
-
Your UL is drawn incorrectly, but how is this against the rules? The point is to track demand and supply. My chart does just that. And did. Confirmed by subsequent price action.
-
Really. ...............
-
The chart on the left was posted yesterday evening. The chart on the right is today's session. These illustrate as well as anything the value of AMT. If you didn't rake in a sizeable portion of this today, why not?
