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DbPhoenix

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix

  1. DbPhoenix
    Thanks for trying.
  2. DbPhoenix
    You didn't notice where price hit after the employment report?
  3. DbPhoenix
    So you took the trade at 44 +/-?
  4. DbPhoenix
    One trade a day is too much pressure. If you miss the trade, then you are too likely to be thinking of the trade you missed rather than focusing on what price is doing. And if you make only one trade a day, there won't be any need for you to focus on what price is doing if you miss the trade because you consider yourself done.
  5. DbPhoenix
    I am, no surprise, a proponent of blogs. They play an important part in one's development. But only a part. If either or both of you want to take this to the next level, I suggest you take advantage of the chat room facilities here. Doing so will enable you to maintain the discipline required to follow price as it moves from S to R and back again and focus on how it behaves as it approaches each. You won't then be relying on what "feels right" or "seems best". Posting to the boards can wait until the end of the day, or until you've wrapped it up for the day.
  6. DbPhoenix
    It's not a matter of greed but of planning. If one doesn't know ahead of time what he's going to do, then whatever decision he makes in real time is essentially a gamble. The hindsight postings are fine for what they are, but they are only marginally related to RT trading. Even if you guys are only paper-trading, you need to conduct yourselves as though you were trading for real.
  7. DbPhoenix
    I was referring to the chart you posted.
  8. DbPhoenix
    It needn't be. As I've suggested, sell the first contract at R, the second at the break of the TL, the third at the breach of the LSL, and so on. It's only difficult if you make it difficult.
  9. DbPhoenix
    At last.
  10. DbPhoenix
    First, you're confusing demand/supply lines with trend lines. The two, again, are not the same. Second, the demand line was drawn before price dropped through it. Third, channel lines have to be parallel. Otherwise, you're tracking swing points, not the progress of the channel. You can do both simultaneously, but, again, they're not the same thing.
  11. DbPhoenix
    Don't neglect the macro:
  12. DbPhoenix
    You're not off-topic at all. In fact, I went into some detail on TICKQ divergences in the Dailies section of my blog, and it's the only one I use. I agree that one should find something that "works" with his strategy, become familiar with how it behaves, then trust it. Since the T isn't massaged (like, for example, the TRIN), I prefer that. As to MP, I don't use it either as such. But the auction market theory behind it, since it's so consistent with what I've learned studying Wyckoff, makes trading a lot easier.
  13. DbPhoenix
    I'm copying this here because (a) it's consistent with what I've been saying about these boxes and (b) it's brief and to the point. I do have one small quibble about market internals, or at least the TICKQ. I find quite often that if the T is taking off and price is just sitting there, price is more likely to go the opposite direction, at which point the T will follow. But this is of course not a sure thing.
  14. DbPhoenix
    I wouldn't go that far. But if one is going to trade Wyckoff intraday, it makes sense to get as close to true price movement as possible, and anything more than a tick chart is a summary to some extent. After all, he traded off the tape, not 5m or 15m bars.
  15. DbPhoenix
    I haven't studied the ES as much as the NQ, but it likely has the same sort of tells that the NQ does since the dynamic of these is "organic", i.e., they are the result of trader behavior and not of random plots. Here, for example, R is tested twice premkt, and one might think there are no other ops for the S/R trader post-open unless R is tested again. However, note the tight range that occurs just before and during the open. Going short or long a break of this type of range is generally a good entry. Otherwise, there is a test of this just a few minutes later, at 0935, which also provides a good entry. The advantage of this sort of entry is that it is nearly always good for enough ticks to enable you to get to BE if you do so quickly without waffling around about it. If, for example, you were to short the break of the range, you'd easily get to BE. However, you'd have to keep your wits about you in order to short the subsequent test (this is much easier to do if you know what you're looking for and you know what to do if and when you see it).
  16. DbPhoenix
    If you go through the process I just detailed on the Cajas thread, you'll find that support is considerably lower. Focusing on 240, though, may be the cause of the misinterpretation of the "test", seeing what one wants to see rather than what's there. First, there's nothing particularly climactic about any of the volume, though the volume does serve to slow down the downward movement and eventually to stall it. Plus the volume on the "test" is higher than that on the initial bounce. Plus there's no particular muscular volume on the upside. All of this suggests a rest, not a reversal. Breaking the TL is sufficient reason for lightening up a short, but I see no reason to go long here. All of this is hindsight, of course, but anybody wanting to learn this stuff in order to apply it to intraday trading is just going to have to trade intraday.
  17. DbPhoenix
    Why are you calling 240 "support"?
  18. DbPhoenix
    Actually, the "inaccuracies" had nothing to do with your questions but with your personal criticisms of those who were participating in the thread. Since you acknowledged that you were likely "pissing everyone off", you were clearly aware of the likely effect. You were invited to repost your questions without the baggage and you still may do so.
  19. DbPhoenix
    Very true. Listen to those bells of yours.
  20. DbPhoenix
    Price finds support at B, resistance at C. Preparation, Execution, Review.
  21. DbPhoenix
    You're confusing supply and demand as it relates to economics with supply and demand as it relates to the markets, and the two are only casually related. Market movements can be very calculated and deliberate, or they can be governed by greed and fear. This is largely due to the differing attitudes towards "value". Not many people are going to pay $100 for a strawberry, even if there's only one left in the bin.
  22. DbPhoenix
    There are two threads going on here, one having to do with supply and demand and the other having to do with volume. Volume has to do with trading activity. Supply and demand have to do with price movement (unless price doesn't move at all, in which case supply and demand are balanced). The two threads can be related, but there is no intrinsic correlation. Price can move substantially on practically no "volume" at all. It can also sit there buffing its nails while tons of trading activity is going on in the background. Don't know what you mean by "one S&D chain".
  23. DbPhoenix
    My comments have to do with the two sentences that FW quoted. I have no idea what pattern you're referring to nor where the VDU is occurring. As I said, demand is nothing more than the willingness to pay the ask. If the discussion is instead about volume patterns, perhaps FW could clarify.
  24. DbPhoenix
    From a practical standpoint, it really doesn't matter who is moving price or why they're doing it. What matters is that price is moving. The key to profiting from that movement has less to do with how and why and who than with being attuned to the relative strengths of the buying and selling waves as they relate to previous buying and selling waves, i.e., support and resistance. Allowing oneself to become enmeshed in the who and the why does nothing but add another layer of unnecessary and irrelevant complexity.
  25. DbPhoenix
    ST appears to be defining "demand" differently than Wyckoff does. However, you're welcome to conduct your discussion here.
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