DbPhoenix

Yep. Same here....................

I notice that the blog categories are no longer displayed in the left-hand sidebar. Is this a change or a browser issue? If a change, is it permanent?

It can be a nail-biter, if for no other reason than price seems to move so glacially. But for the vast majority of beginning traders who are trying to trade intraday, price moves much too fast In any case, there are a few things that you implied in your analysis that bear closer examination since they involve weaving together a number of threads. You've addressed S/R and strength/weakness and even risk, but let's look at all of this a little closer. Regarding the "box", or trading range, you'll note that price had been bouncing around primarily between 24.5 and 26.5. This provided a midpoint of 25.5 (you called the range 24 to 27 in your original chart, but the midpoint would remain the same, and what's a quarter-point or so?). As I've said more than once (a lot more), all of what's been done up to now can be done in advance. Sometimes way in advance. Here, all you had to do was sit back, relax, and watch what traders did when price approached that midpoint. Trading activity declines, the range narrows, and you've got yourself a springboard. Granted it's not much, and it's worth only a point and a half or so, but it tells you that you're looking in the right place. Now what happens? Buying pressure comes back in, but so does selling pressure (trading activity increases). Buying pressure, however, is greater, able to push price higher even when increasing selling pressure (detected by increasing trading activity) is brought to bear. And where does all this stop? And what happens to trading activity? Traders now have to decide whether they're going to follow your script or somebody else's. But you made the right choices, though you entered a bit low, and you're in a good position. You're not required to make the right call. You're required only to be prepared and be in the right place at the right time. If the world blows up in the meantime, that's out of your hands. When I say you entered a bit low, the better entry, as you noted in hindsight, was nearer 25. A sell stop just below the bar I arrowed would have been just the ticket (actually, a sell stop limit, unless you want to relinquish control of the price you pay). At least that's what Wyckoff would have suggested, partly because that's where weakness would reveal itself soonest and partly because your risk would be much less than shorting the bottom of the day's bar. Fortunately, none of this is in hindsight. You made your plans and you executed them, and you laid it all out ahead of time. Kudos. Granted it's difficult to appreciate the push and pull on a static chart, particulary when one limits himself to bars. But perhaps a "dot" chart can give some sense of this movement. The conclusions are the same, but perhaps the display can provide an "Aha" moment for someone who has not yet stepped through the looking glass of real-time trading. As for that springboard, let's give that little sucker a closer look in context: What's "noise" to some is music to others. Now you have to decide what you're going to do if JPM decides it's going to go up instead of down. What are your plans? What "scenarios" can you plot?

What a great U-turn day. And no chat room

Here all of us were right and no way to prove it Oh well Here's where the 95 business came from. Let's hope the chart doesn't disappear.

Not likely. Vol too high and 1200 too powerful. (Maybe if he got rid of the audio/video/whiteboard stuff, it would work)

Since the chat room isn't working again, I'll state here that I'm looking at 70 to 95 and to short at 95 where possible.

Yep. Same problems. Server crashes. Browser crashes. Can't get back in. *sigh*

If these opinions matter in the course of events, I have to agree with Head. I suspect that what members wanted most of all was something stable. The games, the drawings, even the cams and the audio are fine, but how important are they to how many people? Far more important -- at least to me -- are stable and reliable forums, at least in terms of being able to post charts. We do appreciate what you're trying to do, but don't drive yourself crazy over it.

Where do you plan to short, i.e., what price?

Good idea. I'd hate to be without tog for an entire day

As you say, Wyckoff suggests (to put it mildly) that the trader ignore all of it: news, tips, reports, rumors, and so on. Given the internet and the instant executions of today, one may want to avoid trading the Fed announcement and the 10:00 reports if he is not already in his trade beforehand. But everything else is in the chart. If the subject interests you, it has been discussed exhaustively elsewhere.

Still messed up, but James is in bed, so this will all have to wait until tomorrow. See all of you then. I hope

Depends on the food. Chicken, for example, is lean. But there's a thin layer of subcutaneous fat underneath the skin. So if you roast it at a moderately high temperature, you're going to get a pretty crisp skin. But remember to do most of the cooking breast side down so that the fat and juices drip into the breast rather than out of it. Then finish roasting breast side up to crisp the skin. Wings, drumsticks and thighs will crisp regardless because they have more fat to begin with. As for french fries, onion rings, and so on, specially-engineered product will crisp better than what you try to do "from scratch". So just buy the frozen stuff at the store.

Lots of problems with crashes, people being bumped, long delays in postings today. Doesn't appear to be browser-specific.

Eliminate the worst of the bubbles, and returning to the trendline doesn't seem so outlandish after all:

We seem to have entered the subject of groups by the side door. As mentioned elsewhere, Wyckoff counsels the trader to go through several steps in order to find the most attractive opportunities: (1) determine the trend of the market, (2) find those groups which are most in tune with that trend, (3) find those stocks which present the best short or long opportunities within the group. One can skip the group step and go straight from market to stock, but the odds of finding the right stock are far better if one knows what the stock's group is doing as well as other, comparable stocks within that group. (He'll explain in more detail below.) The following is an edited excerpt from Wyckoff's original course: "Comparing Strength and Weakness: Group Charts" (Sect. 8M). This is only about a third of it. The rest is devoted largely to detailed explanations of charting and compositing with examples of stocks and groups of the time. Today we don't have to go through all that work. In addition to the "mother" averages (the DJIA, DJTA, and DJUA), we have the Nasdaq, the S&P, the NYSE, and a vast array of other averages and indices, all available at a click. BigCharts even goes so far as to arrange all of them for you, from the nine basic sectors (plus Telecommunications, which is highly specialized) to 25 groups to dozens of subgroups and sub-subgroups. I won't go any further into the process. Wyckoff does a much better job of it, as one might expect. However, one example of the process is provided in the EOD thread, linked in the first sentence, top. Following, I'll provide charts of the nine sectors as of yesterday with simple annotations. I'll try to update these charts when there's something worth updating, but I'm not promising anything. One can do this quite easily for himself. The symbols are in the upper-left-hand corner of each chart and can be plotted anywhere. But they do provide a starting point, and one can explore each sector all the way down to the bottommost levels at BigCharts. COMPARING STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS GROUP CHARTS (Sect. 8M) After we have determined the position and trend of the market as a whole, we next must determine the position and trend of the various groups and, finally, select from the best situated Groups those Individual Stocks which promise the best moves. One of the best indications of the future course of a group or a stock is its comparative strength when the rest of the market is weak, or its comparative weakness in a strong market. James R. Keene used to say: “Watch the stock that shows strong resistance to pressure when the market is weak, and buy those stocks for all you are worth.” The reason for this: Someone is trying to buy while the market is weak. He would not do this unless he has reason to believe that he can sell it later at a higher price. So he takes advantage of the weakness in the rest of the market by holding the bag for all the offerings of other people who are prompted or compelled to sell. When a stock is exceptionally weak in a strong market, we conclude that somebody knows something to its disadvantage and is forcing his offerings on a market that is otherwise strong. This may indicate need for urgency, based on fear or necessity; or it may signify the taking advantage of a strong market. Large operators often test the market for a stock by buying 5,000 to 25,000 shares in order to see how easily they can buy it, or by selling a similar quantity to ascertain how well the market will absorb their selling. Thus they are able to decide which side shows the least resistance. If they find other people are trying to buy it and that the stock is rather scarce, they regard it as a bullish indication and take a long position. However, if the price yields easily to pressure, they regard it as a bearish indication and take a short position. A small operator is unable to test the market in this way before he takes a position, but by a close study of his charts, he is able to estimate the comparative strength or weakness of a stock and thus reinforce his judgment as to whether, considering the trend, it is time to buy or sell it. When large interests are planning a campaign in a stock, they “lay the foundation.” That is, they accumulate or distribute a quantity of stock according to the size of their venture and the anticipated profit to be derived from it. This quantity bears a relation to the estimated number of points profit. (Figure charts afford a means of judging this relation and hence frequently indicate the approximate objectives of such campaigns.) If a stock is below value, and these interests see a large potential profit ahead, they will take all they can buy at certain levels, then gradually raise their bid prices until they get all they want. They buy preferably on reactions until such time as they are ready to mark up the price. Or if a stock is above value, and they see trouble ahead, they will sell all they can at certain levels, supporting the price on reactions and unloading on rallies until they are read to let it drop. This is why these supporting levels and the levels of resistance (a phrase originated by me many years ago), are so important for you to watch. In brief, when you see strong support in a stock, with the rest of the market weak, you know the buying is better than the selling -- that insiders are probably doing the buying because they believe they can sell out later at a profit. And when you see the reverse, that is, strong resistance in a stock with the rest of the market advancing, you know the selling is better than the buying -- insiders are selling because the outlook for that stock is turning sour, or because they believe they can later reaccumulate at a lower level. Likewise, when an individual stock in any group is stronger than the Average of that group, this is an indication that such a stock is likely to move sooner and faster than the Average, provided its behavior otherwise confirms the indication. If it is weaker than its group, this may signify that the stock is preparing to decline more rapidly than the Average. The fact that an individual stock may be moving against the trend of its group does not destroy nor impair the value or effectiveness of the indications given by the Average in which it is included. On the contrary, such action, of itself, frequently conveys significant information which should not be ignored with respect to the behavior and position of that stock. In like manner, by comparing the behavior of the various Group Averages with the action of the whole market — the way they respond or fail to respond to advances and declines, rallies and reactions in the Composite Average [the Dow, S&P, etc] — you may gain valuable additional information on which to base your stock market campaigns. These comparisons are especially important because they help you to select the best opportunities and to avoid the slow movers (“sleepers”) -- thereby keeping your capital working at maximum efficiency. Bear in mind that all stocks do not move at all times in harmony with the prevailing trend; nor do they all rise and fall together. Bull markets usually begin with advances in the leaders, that is, the seasoned, higher grade, and higher priced issues. This is so because the big interests, who are best informed as to prospects for approaching recovery dominate these stocks and hence reflect their sentiments toward the market by their operations in the leaders. As the rise in the leaders continues, large independent operators, taking their cue from the action of the leaders, are encouraged to begin bullish operations in the secondary issues and specialties, In due course, the public is attracted by bullish demonstrations in various parts of the list and by the revival of market activity, whereupon the lower priced and more speculative stocks come into line. This demand rotates from group to group as, for instance, from Steels to Rails to Coppers, etc., and from one stock to another. As the rise progresses, individual stocks and groups of stocks that have advanced too rapidly may rest and react while other stocks and other groups are brought forward. Thus bull markets are built up by a Process of Rotation. That is, demand shifts about from week to week, day to day and even from hour to hour. Price movements tend to become increasingly selective (mixed) after a prolonged advance because when the big fellows see that some industries have about attained maximum prosperity, they will wind up their speculative campaigns in those groups and turn to those laggards in which there is still room for improvement. When large interests are distributing at the tops of the intermediate or maJor swings (or on the way down from the extreme highs), they sometimes fool the public by rapidly marking up the prices of a few easily influenced stocks, or by applying hypodermics to a few of the leaders. These whooping up tactics maintain the atmosphere of bullishness so essential to keep the public in a buying mood while other stocks are being unloaded. An indication that demand is being exhausted may be given when the majority of stocks respond sluggishly to such whooping up maneuvers; or when they tend to fall back quickly on repeated attempts to continue the process of rotation, or when the leadership of an advance shifts from the recognized leaders to the secondary issues and to the “cats and dogs”; or when representative stocks fail to follow the strength in a few hypodermically stimulated fast movers. The Process of Rotation operates in much the same manner at the beginning and during the course of a bear market. That is, supply rotates to break down prices in one section of the list after another until offerings are finally exhausted. Likewise, selling pressure rotates while the market is in process of forming a bottom. Hence some stocks may reach their downward objectives sooner than others. Therefore, when we see that the early leaders of a decline are refusing to move materially lower, while supply is still rotating to other stocks, we have an indication that demand is overcoming supply. This helps us to determine the levels at which accumulation is taking place. Supply in a falling market rotates more rapidly than demand in a rising Market. This is explained by the fact that there is seldom (if ever) sufficient buying power to lift all stocks at once in bull movements; whereas, in bear movements, fear, necessity, or both, eventually compel holders to liquidate all stocks without regard to value. This characteristic difference may easily be seen by reference to the accompanying charts. Another reason why stocks fall more swiftly and uniformly than they advance is that the public long interest is always greater than the public short interest. Most people are willing to buy stocks but fear to sell short, although intelligently conducted short selling operations often yield more substantial profits and involve no greater risk than commitments on the long side. At any rate, those who are long of stocks greatly outnumber those who are short. Consequently, upward price movements are retarded by frequent profit-taking on the part of the numerous bulls, especially in stocks below the $50 class which attract the largest outside following. But downward movements are not so effectively retarded by profit-taking on the part of the relatively few bears. And, because the public’s attitude is unbalanced (leaning always toward the bull side), actual and potential demand for stocks is greater when the market goes up than when it goes down. In other words,the majority will buy while the market is strong but this demand fades away when it is weak. In fact, the untrained trader and investor hangs on to his stocks through falling markets until prices reach a point where hope suddenly evaporates. Then he sells out in a panic. The herd psychology that characterizes the Wall Street public often causes unskilled investors to reach this panicky state of mind simultaneously. Thus there is a concerted rush to sell which cleans out all of the weak holders at about the same time, relieving the market of pressure and reducing the supply quickly at that point. The Principle of Rotation is operative also in group movements. Thus, strength or weakness in the leading stock of a group influences traders to buy or sell other stocks in the same group. This helps those who are conducting a campaign of accumulation or distribution to work their stock to the lower or the higher level at which they wish to acquire or unload their line. At the turning point in a falling market, the continuing weakness in other stocks creates the atmosphere of general pessimism which induces the public to go on selling around the bottom. This affords large operators an opportunity to buy what they want without bidding prices up. Similarly, at the turning points in a rising market, the rotation of strength to other stocks in a group enables the large operator to unload the one he has marked up to its objective under cover of the activity and strength in the other issues, without forcing his offerings upon the market. This explains why you so often see individual stocks in a group topping out, or rounding out a bottom, one after another and why all stocks do not necessarily touch their highs or lows together, on the same day or in the same week, or perhaps the same month. It likewise explains why some of the leaders of one phase of a bull market may not lead nor actively participate in its later stages. You must strive to take advantage of the above principles. Seek out the stocks in the strongest position when buying and the weakest to sell short. Aim to pick the leader of a group for your operations. It is a mistake to ignore the laggards in a group simply because the leader “is too high.” Some of these other stocks may be in preparation for moves which will come after the leader is finished. That gives you an opportunity to switch from the leader (when you see it may be near the end of its swing) to the next best issue or issues, that is, to those which may not have come fully into line with the advance in the leader. But in searching out these opportunities, you must be sure to weigh each situation carefully. The fact that a stock is moving sidewise around a low point, while others in the group are going up, is, by itself, no assurance that this laggard must be under accumulation. Study its volume behavior. Note particularly whether the price shows a tendency toward rising supports after it has been in the range for some time. If it does not show such a tendency, better leave it alone. A stock that persistently hugs a low line of supports (stays near the bottom of an apparent range of accumulation) and refuses to rally well when the rest of the market is strong, is very apt to be subjected to a shake-out, or it may be in a weak position. Therefore, bear in mind that even though a group may be in a strong position, every stock in that group may not be desirable nor in a position to move aggressively. Vice versa, in a weak group, some stocks may be in a relatively stronger position than others, while some may be neutral. Judge the progress of stocks and compare strength or weakness directly from your charts. From your vertical charts you can see immediately, by casual inspection, how a stock is behaving in relation to the general market averages and in relation to its own group. Changes in its action become apparent at once so that you can adjust your conclusions promptly. --Richard D Wyckoff

What tipped the scale was the first two arrowed volume bars. If there hadn't been an indication of strong preliminary support, I probably would have passed. But that, followed by the lower bar at the test, nudged me into the trade. However, that little hesitation you refer to is also an example of the "deep breath before the plunge" that I've referred to. One could also have entered just above that, but he would have been sweating a bit when price came back to 45 at 0947. Granted all the "bullish" indications shown by the double arrows might have persuaded him to stay put, or at least keep his initial stop where it was rather than move to BE too quickly. But entering even higher would probably have necessitated an exit (and possible re-entry). An argument can be made then for just taking the risk at what is often the best time. After all, the extent of what one had to lose at a 44 entry was almost trivial. As for replay, the difficulty here is knowing what happened next. But there's no alternative other than time machine, and mine's in the shop.

Crappy weather, lots of time. This is hard to explain to a beginner, and I'm not going to try, mostly because explaining off a static, hindsight chart is nowhere near sufficient. But you're not a beginner, and this is just the sort of trade that you or atto might like. Given the support level, my reasons for entering should be clear. Or maybe not. But my reasons for staying in had to do with the volume price indications arrowed (and, in case anybody is wondering, this has nothing to do with matching a particular volume bar with a particular price bar; it has rather to do with the movements of each and all in tandem as they form in real time, just as a snapshot of Fred and Ginger is only marginally related to what they're doing throughout the entire dance routine). Edit: You've given me an idea regarding beginners and this chart. We'll see what happens.

That's exactly right. If the cells aren't saturated with water, they should be more likely to soak up what surrounds them. And there are so many varieties of vinegar, including all the flavored vinegars (like tarragon), you can have a real mushroom fest.

The Bottom Line Should I buy? Should I sell? Many traders often focus their efforts on identifying buy and sell signals. The research and analysis they do are geared towards reaching the goal of getting that “bottom line” directive to guide their actions. Any successful, experienced trader will tell you that although properly identifying buy/sell signals is important, it’s not the key to being successful. Instead, the way you manage each trade is what will determine your success. Traders who take the bottom line approach tend to believe that the success of their trading activity is dependent on following the right buy/sell signals at the right time. Clearly, it’s important that a trader be able to understand the process of generating signals and to use the methods involved. Realistically though, almost any trader can find a way to generate signals (whether using technical methods already out there, coming up with their own system, or using their platform’s automated signal generation tools). Any successful, experienced trader will tell you that your trade doesn’t begin and end with a buy or sell. There’s a trade management process involved. For each trade you make, you’re making a group of decisions. The way you manage and time those decisions is what will determine the success of your trade. Suppose two traders get the same signal at the same time and act on it. One’s trade may result in profits while the other’s results in losses. This could occur because each trader made a combination of additional decisions throughout the process of the trade. These decisions might include scaling in and/or out of the trade, using trailing stop losses, setting profit objectives, waiting, etc. The trader who made the more effective overall combination of decisions will have the better trade results in the end. It’s very important to regard trading as a process, and to understand that a trader’s efforts need to be focused on the activity of trading itself, as opposed to getting a quick bottom line answer. Because there are many aspects involved in making your trades successful, it’s essential that you educate and train yourself in all the different areas. Learn how to develop better trading plans and analysis methods, and then learn how to apply what you’ve developed to the process of a making a trade – from the original impetus to enter or stay out of a trade to the psychology of managing that trade. --Innerworth

There's no contradiction, mat. But I quickly got lost. Your numbering method did not make it clear whether you were talking about a bar, a group of bars, an entire up/down or down/up arc, and so on. Head's just trying to help you, as might others. But it's up to you to make clear just what it is that you're referring to. One option is to split your chart into vertical sections and assign a number to each section. Another is to circle whatever it is you're referring to and assign a number to each circle.

You guys are learning this stuff so quickly. And thank you for posting to the EOD thread. Before jumping into a stock, though, remember, that Wyckoff counseled the trader to look first at the market, then at the group, then at the stock. Nowadays, we can look at several markets (such as the Nasdaq and NDX) as well as a variety of sectors and groups before arriving at our final destination. So, let's go from the macro to the micro, though we'll skip the market part. Everybody has the market chart imprinted on their brains. First, technology: Then Technology Hardware & Equipment: Then Computer Hardware: And, finally, Apple: Notice how badly Technology and Technology Hardware suck. But by the time you get to Computer Hardware, it doesn't suck so bad. In fact, it's just below the '06 swing low. Apple is doing considerably better, not only above the '06 swing low, but holding at the '07 swing low. This is not to say that Apple can't or shouldn't be shorted. You've located just the spot where one could do so if that's what he wanted to do. But keep in mind that Apple has shown considerably more strength than the groups or the sector of which it is a part, and shorting strength is not necessarily the best option. Also compare its performance and chart position to other players in the group, like Hewlett or Dell (I haven't kept up with this, so I don't know who the major players are currently). Is it doing better, worse, or about the same? If you do decide to short, the best place would be a failure of a test of the 95-100 area. You could also short a failure of the bottom of the box at 78 or so. But if you select that option, you've got an awful lot of support just below to look forward to, and some sort of scaling-out plan would be in order. Understand that I'm not trying to discourage you from shorting. But it may not be clear sailing, and you need to come up with detailed contingency plans ahead of time so that you'll be prepared for whatever comes your way.

The subject of crisp fish came up today in the chat room, and I said I'd explain how to go about achieving same. But there's no place to do that, so I started this thread. Two things to remember when you want crisp fish (or veggies or chicken or whatever; bell peppers are great). First is that it should be dry. You can start out with something dry, like chicken breasts or tilapia, or you can dry whatever you have, like pollock, by wrapping it in three or four paper towels and squeezing them out (the towels) as they become saturated. Why? Because all that water turns to steam once it hits the hot fat and reaches boiling temperature (212F at sea level). Unless you cook the fish until it's completely dry (and if it starts out wet, that will take a good long while), that steam will continue to exit through your crust even after the fish is draining on the rack and thus soften your crust. But if you cook the fish until it's completely dry and there're no steam bubbles at all, the frying fat will begin to push its way into your fish, and it will be "greasy". So dry the fish first. Second, toss the fish and veggies and whatever else in rice flour. Not corn flour. Not wheat flour. Not corn starch. Not oat flour. Rice flour. If you can't get it at the grocer's, you can get it at an Asian market. Add a little salt and pepper if you like. Once you've tossed whatever in the rice flour, lay it out on a rack for a while so that the flour can seal itself to whatever it is you're cooking. After that, prepare your batter and heat your fat. If you've done the above, it's hard to go wrong. I personally use a batter of rice flour, all-purpose (or medium protein) wheat flour, and enough beer to bring this to a heavy cream consistency (120g of rice flour and 40g of a-p flour, if you want a place to start, for about 360g of food; this amount takes about 220ml of beer; drink the rest). The fat should be around 350F to 375F. Too hot and the fish will overbrown before it's done. Not hot enough and you don't get the steam and your fish soaks up the fat and gets greasy. And don't overload the pan so that the fat drops too much below 300. The lower the temp, the more likely you'll have greasy food. Then drain all of this on a rack (not on paper towels; that just puts the grease back in the food) and eat it. Or invite people over and impress your friends (depending on how easily your friends are impressed).

Thanks, atto. I like that "traders protecting prices". That's really what it boils down to. And the traders with the most money can provide the most protection.