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DbPhoenix
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Everything posted by DbPhoenix
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Since this is your first post, I don't know what you mean by "it". If you're referring to Wyckoff's course, this is the link: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/2436-wyckoff-resources/?tab=comments#comment-80204 If you're referring to the "Trading in Foresight" thread, I have no idea where it is now that the software upgrade has been done. But all of that information is in my book (the fact that most if not all of this stuff gets lost so easily is one of the reasons why I wrote the book). If you're referring to my book, the preview of it is here: Trading Price Db
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That's nice of you to offer, but all of these are in the public domain and available for free online in pdf form. Db
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This link should theoretically take you to the post that has the course in pdf form attached to it. But much has been lost due to the website's "update". I checked the pdf link and it works for me. If it doesn't work for you, contact me at dbsburrow@yahoo.com.
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Though some people might snort at this, I do try to be as non-directive as possible when people are testing and exploring as long as whatever they are doing is being done within the context of Wyckoff principles, e.g., no indicators or Fib or pitchforks. The observation and testing phases are as much a process of discovery as anything else, particularly when the individual discovers that what he thought was true isn't true at all. Granted one can be so confined by biases that he can't see the truth even when it hits him in the face, but that's where data collection and analysis can help. I may have missed it, but you seem not to have done much appraisal of your observation and back-testing phases, You appear instead to have assumed that your foundation was sound and that all you had to do was decide whether you wanted granite countertops or butcher block. What I wrote in January '16 seems to have been overlooked, and rather than focus on price movement and the various players determining the course of that movement, you became focused on lines. As I've pointed out, the lines aren't going to be of much help with intraday trading. The determinant of success or failure regarding intraday trading -- at least according to Wyckoff -- will depend on the trader's ability to recognize the presence of force and correctly determine its direction. Otherwise one gets trapped in chop and the commissions mount up. Intraday trading is about force, direction, pace, activity, extent, waves, and so forth, all of which I've addressed here and "elsewhere". Tick bundles and CVBs and various other ways of transforming price movement are of no value. This however must be determined through one's own experimentations; my saying so carries little if any weight. But then that to a large extent is the purpose of testing. If you have substantial evidence that you are on the right course and have only to refine your protocols, then by all means continue to pursue that course. However, if you feel lost, then back up to the point where you had a solid footing. If you believe that you never had a solid footing, then re-examine your assumptions and re-analyze your observations. At the very least, if for some reason you are bound to daytrade, review your observations focusing on pace, activity, waves, etc (see the pdf) rather than lines. In fact, avoid using lines at all. Reviewing Wyckoff's Day Trader's Bible may be of help, though I suggest that you examine why you are day-trading at all. As for the sort of advice one receives on trading boards, if the advisor doesn't understand what you're doing or why you're doing it or doesn't even ask what your objectives are, he will more likely be interested in persuading you to do it "his way". And this may be just what the doctor ordered IF the advisor is willing to explain exactly what it is he does, step by step, and why and how he does it, along with the statistical support for his protocols, in other words, his trading plan. Without that, all the claims may be and most likely will be little more than wishful thinking (take, for example, VWAP). Trust, if you feel compelled to do so, but also verify. Wyckoff is hardly the only approach, but there are a near-infinite number of approaches out there that are no better. The grass is not necessarily greener. Db
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Given that you have been at this for three months now, what have you learned?
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Spending one's time memorizing and searching for "setups" is generally unproductive. For one thing, setups have variations. This fact alone ensures that the number of setups will multiply like rabbits. Then there is the problem of "analyzing" all the minute aspects of the setup in real time in order to determine whether or not it "fits". This alone encourages self-doubt, brother-in-law of fear. And it wastes time. And time may be in short supply. If one is going to trade price successfully, he must understand what traders are doing and where, their behavior, not search for pretty pictures. The chart below illustrates a typical decline, climax, test. They happen again and again, but if one gets wrapped up in details, he is unlikely to be able to do anything about the trade in real time. Here there is an initial drop to "1". Volume is lower than the previous bar suggesting a withdrawal of supply. This is confirmed by the rush of buying in the next interval (we know it's demand because price rises). One can buy this or not, keeping in mind that there is always the possibility of a test. If one did buy and exited the trade when the stride broke, he might think he was done. This would not be the case. Price then drops again, this time to a lower low, in a climactic way. Demand rushes in (price rises), and one might buy again. If he did, he'd see a series of higher highs. Then the stride would break again, this time followed by a deep and rapid plunge. At that, the trader might think he's done. But he'd be wrong. Buyers bring the drop to a halt and reverse the course. And if the trader notes that the drop is halted at exactly the same level as the first decline, he might give the long another try. And this is the one that results in a day-long move to the upside. The points are that (a) these never look exactly the same, (b) they never play out exactly the same way, © one can't assume that the trade is over just because he got stopped out. Yes, hindsight is easier than real time, but, if the trader is trading in the moment rather than dwelling on the two longs that failed to take off, hindsight will be available to him almost immediately, perhaps quickly enough so that he has time to take advantage of the opportunity. Forget about diagrams and templates and pretty pictures. Focus on behavior.
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William Gann: An Accurate Market Forecaster
DbPhoenix replied to analyst75's topic in Trading Psychology
I'm not seeking salvation, just wondering what gurus Joel thinks have merit. -
William Gann: An Accurate Market Forecaster
DbPhoenix replied to analyst75's topic in Trading Psychology
And to what "gurus" do you think there is a point in listening? -
I have just been made aware that people are still reading this "article". As so much of the content was getting a little creaky, I updated, consolidated, and revised the whole thing into the "SLAB" (the SLA Book). The book comes in three parts: the SLAB, the files from the original Db's Burrow -- revised and updated -- and Notes, altogether about 400 pages. The price is $35 payable via PayPal to dbsburrow@yahoo.com. The pdf below will give you a good idea of what the first part of the book is all about. It also provides a Table of Contents. If you have any questions, contact me at the above address. Db SLAprvTOC.pdf
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
DbPhoenix replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Actually hardly anyone "falls" for it. They try to learn by doing. Year after year. And the failure rate climbs. And the beat goes on . . . -
Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
DbPhoenix replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
That's because it's bad advice. Trading without a plan is "loser" preparation, particularly if one is under-capitalized. “Trading to learn” is no more rational nor profitable than playing roulette to learn. Db -
What did you eventually come up with regarding 1m SL and DL breaks and exits? Db
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Everything you "know" in re your first question is incorrect. When a buyer and a seller complete a transaction, the price is what it is. Or was. The next transaction may take place at a higher price or a lower one. But price does not rise simply because two parties agreed upon a price. What changes the price is a change in perception of value. This changes thousands of times a day. As for your second question, yes, somebody has to be willing to pay your asking price. If they aren't, you either hold it or lower your price. Many thousands of other traders are doing the same thing throughout the session, which is why price moves up and down. For a primer on auction markets and how they work, see p. 15 and following in the pdf attached to the bottom of this post. Doing a websearch will be of little help as most traders have this wrong. Db
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Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday, Part II: Questions and Discussion
DbPhoenix replied to DbPhoenix's topic in The Wyckoff Forum
See p. 112, the SLAB. Db -
An update on the "catch-up" chart posted above to show the line around which price is rotating.
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Catch-up. Trader can locate his own danger points (p. 68, Notes). Remember to read charts from left to right.
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I'd like to have that as well, given that he died three months ago . . .
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The "term" matters. A coach and a mentor are not the same thing. If you don't know what you want, you won't find it. All you'll end up doing is throwing more money away. If you want to trade somebody else's system and pay them for the privilege, just post notices in all the trading forums. You'll be deluged. Db
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Whether or not you have a passion is not as pertinent as whether or not you have a plan. If you don't, then you put yourself in the position of having to follow a mentor's plan, and the only reason you'd have to do so is if he is able to prove to you that he is successful, and the only way he can do that is to provide you with tax returns. Good luck with that. Particularly when the mentor is no longer around. A more realistic course is to find a coach. A coach will help you develop a thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable trading plan of your own, and once it's done, it's yours, to do with as you like, when and where and how you like. If you have no interest in developing such a plan, then you should quit, because you won't be able to succeed without one. If you do have an interest in developing such a plan, the attached will be of help. Be your own coach. Db Developing A Plan SLAB.pdf
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After 15 years of this, I've come to the same conclusion (actually I came to this conclusion some time ago). New "traders" should be confronted with the realities of trading at the very beginning. Instead they're greeted with squads of cheerleaders. And go on month after month, year after year (the longest I've seen so far is nineteen), pursuing their "vision" and barely breaking even, if that. The number of people with whom I've come into contact who are cut out for this is astonishingly low (not much different from the "success rate" that everyone refers to). But there are a few out there. The rest are apparently just overwhelmingly lonely. Db
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A long is taken if and when price breaks through the SL and subsequently retraces. A short is taken if price fails to break through the SL and subsequently retraces. The cue is taken off the daily and implemented on the hourly.