Predictor

Generally it pays to be careful of selling in the pocket -- although depends on overall market environment. This is where the large limit order traders often sit and will reverse the order flow..

Buying surge looks to be failing.... crowd got short at 55.50... just where the low was... crowd covered at 57.... buy program trigger just above 55.50... I was a bit slow today.. Actually the buying had started earlier but isn't synchronized... this leads me to believe the market could still be a range bound market which is why I missed the read. It looks like some funds are buying but selectively..

Michael, Thanks for not disappearing. I had thought that maybe I was actually mistaken, and so I had to go find the quote. If you don't want to share this in public but are willing to share in private then I can take a phone call or private email and will not disclose this figure. Thanks, Curtis Question: How much did the top producer earn in 2010 and 2011 ? Michael Patak: We did not really start getting talent that produced well until we changed our program to evaluating on performance not just profits. We made this change at the beginning of February 2012. When we make a change it takes months for it to show up in the talent that we have coming through the Combine as they then start changing their habits to meet the criteria. So to answer the question. 2010 was a building year and most if not all of 2011 was an evolving year, so nothing substantial there with traders. We are NOW finding better talent and are starting to generate producers so check back with me at the end of this year and I will get you an update when 1099's are printed. I do want to say that this is a new concept that has taken over 2 years to put together. After 2 years we now have enormous confidence in our program and are excited about what will materialize from future prospects that take the opportunity we provide which allows them to develop and get a risk free shot at the markets. mp

One of the misconceptions about tape reading is that its all about the market orders. In fact, the skilled tape reader can determine where the larger limit order traders are sitting off market. Why is this important? Because often entering with the limit order trader is the lowest risk trade. Obviously, if it were as easy as watching for buying or selling then anyone could tape read but the real skill lies in detecting what the buying or selling means. With training, practice, and experience it is possible to determine where traders are finding value. Often shorter term market order driven traders will drive price away from the slower moving limit order traders. It is important to see how the limit order traders respond. Often, they respond very slowly and these moves tend to reverse quickly leading to stop outs. There are two forms of Limit Resistance . The first form are visible orders that are shown in the book. We find that when many short term traders try to do the same thing at the same time that it leads to reversals or at least makes it difficult for the market to continue to move because it creates a situation of over supply. The second form isn't found in the book but is the result of a replenished offer/bid. This results in high volume printing on a level which will often be contrary. On a longer term basis, it is possible to track where most market order traders are long and short from. Watching how the price moves in relation to these imbalances often provides critical insight.

Last night we traded from appx 1400 to 1391 on about 4k contracts only (rough calc by hand -- not exact). Contracts per level ranged only 50 to 200 contracts. Total we traded from 1440 to 1391 or 49 points appx. This wasn't the entire run down but surprised not more discussion on this. I believe that most flash crashes are caused by institutions pulling bids. Not HFT per say.. They did it again. Its clear it wasn't "heavy selling" that made the spike move down from 1400 to 1391 but rather no bids. Fortunately was out of market...

TL.. see my revised post. Thanks. Barry, again I apologize if I came out as rude but it sounded like you were trying to MAKE statements about my software and my company. Also, I traded with the software in early early alpha when it did crash. I had a backup plan. All good traders should have backup plans. I personally recommend that the trader have a separate "clean" machine for placing orders. You also suggested that the admins take my thread down. Again, as I said if you want do business with someone then be friendly and you'll get a more friendly response. Now in all seriousness, if you're really that concerned that a program might glitch up (one that doesn't place orders) then maybe you should rethink things. Our software isn't a buy/sell indicator but a powerful tool made for professionals. As for the algorithms/output data, I recommend everyone to validate that for themselves... I do. Thanks for your interest. I hope your question is answered. I don't have time to go into any more details about our test plans. We will have a ticket system for customers to submit issues and resolve them.

>>You side-stepped number 2 and that concerns.me. Getting offended at a legit question is >>not a good answer. But if that is your answer I will pass on the product and this thread. Good.. don't need you. You sound like you might be a high maintenance customer. Honestly, you come on here with 1 post and make/imply some claims about my company and motivations. I have a lot of folks trolling me here and so that's not the right way to approach someone you want to do business with. Look, we make every effort to make our software as highest quality as possible. I have a test plan for checking a huge number of things to ensure they work. I trade using my own software -- so I've a huge incentive to make sure we get it right. I've got about 20 emails from people who are wanting to buy it and aren't asking questions about what testing methodology we use. Sorry, if I come off as abrupt.. next time be more friendly and you'll get a friendlier response.

john.. nothing wrong with terminology.. just added at 18 btw I refer to Limit Resistance in 2 ways... 1. Limit Resistance as high volume transacted on a level, and 2. as book imbalances.. they aren't really the same thing but similar principle

Is the market open all day today? No early close? ----- Got leverage? Got Corzined? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-20/if-you-bought-greek-bonds-in-january-you-earned-79-euro-credit.html -- Recent shorts from 21 and 22.25... buyers need to hold abov 21 and drive above 22.25 last post for me...

Dunno how john does this..we had 23K contracts accumulated at market on drive up... that's expensive if those buyers didn't have a reason to go to market. That's 23k*12.5 in cost. This tells us something... We had 6k-10k liquidated so far on drive down...

Market has became more negative since neg. consumer sentiment.. bias is still to long side --- If market can hold below 22.25 then that would indicate a drive to new lows possible

Those paying attention.. you can see how the HFT bots front run the imbalance at 26... very nice action for them. --- I'd like to see a drive higher here. Buyers need to reclaim 28 to demonstrate they are really in control.. --- Limit order buy now walking up the market.. nice LQ providers trying to scratch trades

Got it.. long off the 24.25...

john.. this is not really my best environment.. market is saying just get long at a new high but I know as sure as I do then it'll reverse on me. I had a chance 24.50 to get long.. --- Buy programs exhausted at 27.50. Notice we have extreme buying as a limit order seller exhausts all inventory.. then market trends lower on increasing selling --- Very aggressive longs could attempt to buy in front of 26 HV node of book... I'm waiting for 24ish

Rebid 23.25... market was able to drive higher -- Rebid 24ish..... book is thin.. not going to chase

Big boys walking down the market with limit orders.. caution on long side warranted. Book is really thin... book is thin because liquidity providers been losing money to better informed/news driven traders... and holiday.

I believe they're selling here... inventory levels dropping. --- Yes, traders use both market and limit orders but each order type has unique benefits. The only order that is guaranteed execution is market order. --- Majority of mkt shorts are short from 22.25.. move below that and we could get drive to lower.. looks more possible. New inventory has acquired here.. majority of mkt longs are long are long from 23.25 --- We see long inventory building even as the market probes lower... this may be bullish... it may also just be a sign of a larger limit order seller "walking" down the market. This is the recent behavior and a bit new to me. --- Drive lower looks higher probability.. my game plan is to lie in wait at 18ish for a possible reversal... may work.. may not

Some of the changes in the current environment are faster moves, more herding, and less response to technical levels. I believe this is due to 2 reasons: news driven trading and HFT. --- And yes most large funds buy using computer programs. These can take the form of vwap, % max volume of total, and randomized time buys.

Look at how they took out the book last night... very low volume.. spike move all the day down to below 1391.. You see institutions pulled bids... moves the market

Bias today is cautiously to long side... I'd look for a buy in the 18ish region though. Market looks set to drive higher.. however extreme herding has increased the risk for a trader like me. So I may not even trade.

My lesson 3001 There are infinite narratives to explain any given phenomena. And there is generally no way to prove one narrative over another. As a trader, I have a theory free/agnostic approach. This means I'm not a true believer about any single narrative. Just because there are an infinite number of narratives and way to explain the market, I don't feel that all narratives are created equally. I gravitate to the narratives that are more powerful for me as a trader.. more useful. When I say sell programs or buy programs going off.. it doesn't mean I truly believe that sell or buy programs are going off.. its just a way for me to structure the market. I could take other narratives/approaches but found that one powerful for me. When I see that short traders have mostly sold from a certain level and inventory clearing at that level.. I can structure that to make sense by saying short traders closing positions/clearing inventory. Likewise, when I see long inventory liquidating at market highs then I can use structure that to say.. okay these short term long traders are selling at highs. I think there is a misunderstanding about what I actually believe or that my belief in a narrative is responsible for my trading abilities. I try to provide narratives that are most powerful/useful working for me. I can change narratives if desired, as well. Now what I will say that from my understanding only a small percentage of program activity isactually arb programs because arb is very efficient game. When I look at selling/buying, I'm looking at what are probably algorithms that are run by institutions to acquire and divest large amounts of inventory... These algorithms can become synchronized as market participants re-value the market and that can lead to price drives. ---- Anyway, I've shared a lot here but I'm getting tired of the constant harassment. So, I will be sharing less. As I noted, this was a way for me to be my best but I'm not achieving that responding to trolls, other vendors, etc. I was hoping others would take my lead and contribute primarily in real-time. I haven't seen that.. but all number of vendors/gurus/trolls/etc have came on to talk a big talk but none provided real-time analysis except for me.

Dio wrote... "as you are in the same position". So now you are claiming I can't trade? You really shown yourself to be a troll.. whether you wanted to be or not.

Dionysus: I have a better idea. What about you stop bombarding me with false accusations and troll questions? What about you stop spamming this thread with your own insecurities about your software.. and apparently trading abilities too. As a fellow tape reader, I hoped you'd bring something to the table here but you're close to getting placed on ignore. I will lead by example: next post.

DionysusToast: You've shown yourself to be full of dishonesty here. "Amazing took so long to be honest? I've about about had enough of you. You shown a video I made on a certain date and implied that we implemented the feature after you because of that video. I just happened to take a look and see I had a video uploaded the exact same day with the feature you claimed didn't exist at that time. This shot down your theory pretty fast.. instead of apologize you try to twist what was said. I didn't say a word about when we first introduced this feature. I just noted I had never seen it before in another program. Obviously, it was in place months before I made a video on it.

Dio... you are way out of line Take a look at this video.. it was also shared in October on the same exact day! Orderflow Reversal - MarketPredictor's library Now what were you saying? Click details and you will see date it was posted.