Predictor

John and Dio: I consider off-topic now. I'm not interested. Please create a new thread for this or take it private. Your chit chat covers up my analysis and makes it harder for others to follow me. Thanks for understanding.

Patuca: First, John asked about my software which doesn't provide signals, and in that capacity I'm representing my company. I don't see the value in a trading contest for a program that doesn't offer signals and given that our primary customer is likely going to be a professional and already profitable trader. I also don't like that we have obviously other vendors trying in any way possible to associate themselves with what we're doing because they see the enthusiasm for our product. If you're asking my personal trading/predictions/etc then I don't feel any need to do that. If you were listening, I already stated I had top ranked audited systems. I'm not interested in producing those records at this time, either. My goal in this thread is to create a resource for real traders posting real-time information. So far, I'm the only one who's stepped up to the plate. The goal here is for like minded traders to help each other. Please no more off-topic posts.

Here are my levels for the next 8-24 hours. These are generated in advance by the computer. I'm going to be busy finishing our software this next week and getting it ready for first publish. We've a lot of things that haven't been seen yet that I'm very excited about. High2:1474 High1:1470 Low: 1467 The market is right now at 1470.

Thanks to MMS for creating this thread. I want to encourage others who want to post real-time analysis to post here. This thread is now for real-time analysis or future looking analysis only. The idea is to make this a great real-time resource for active traders. What's on topic here? Market calls Market outlook Anticipations of happenings in future Statements about what is happening in the market at the moment Attention to announcements or other market impact changes or other things that active traders in market "right now" need to be aware Most of all focusing on now or in the future -- not the past. Thanks.

Trading involves a lot of difficulties that people have inherent problems with. 1. Uncertainty. People don't like uncertainty. Trader's are always risking money under varying conditions of uncertainty. 2. Significant capital required. You can run stats as many ways as you want to run them but there is still a rather significant amount of capital required to trade. Most people don't have this level of capital. If you do 100% return and want to make the average 55k per year income then that means you'll need a 55k account. Very few people have this sort of money and many can't even entertain it... Compare that to an education which could very possible land one a job making 55k+. 3. Big returns are only seen on the long time horizon regardless of whether one is "short term trader" or "long term trader". Even if you make 400% on 20k then you've made 80k -- about what an average professional makes and spends per year. In order to ever get ahead, you're going to need to do big returns over several years. Though surprisingly, much less then many dream of making. 4. Easier To Obtain Capital For Education. It is relatively easier to get money to get an education then to start a trading business. As most students don't have any money and can't get a job, there is no real risk in default either. 5. Working Provides Faster and More Money. Up to a certain level, just going to work will produce one the fastest money possible. A student with debt and no money may take a job out of college for 40k-90k. They may have 1k in savings to their name. That's a 40x-90x return the first year with no capital risk. --- Curtis Home - OrderFlowDashPro

First, you have to determine your goal. Growth or preservation or realization? From this you can start to make some decisions.... In general, traders with large sums of money are rightfully more concerned with preservation and as such they'll be more risk averse. Strategies generally involve diversification and risk reduction. In order to understand this, look up the utility value of money... if you have 100 million then gaining an additional 100 million isn't going to be worth as much as the first 100 million. As such, most people will be more inclined to protect the first 100 million then to gain the next 100 million. In actuality you'd need a lot of money before you couldn't day trade in the futures markets. -- Curtis Home - OrderFlowDashPro

John, I've read your questions, and I think if you listen to where I'm coming from then you'll see my perspective. First, I believe that I invented incredibly powerful, innovative and potentially market leading software. As such, I don't want other companies to try to share in the momentum and excitement that exists for OrderFlowDashPro's AlphaReveal. The next question is about track records and so forth. For this, you have to go back to the software itself. The software doesn't give signals. It just processes market information more intelligently and displays it in incredibly useful forms. I hear where you're coming from but one just as easily claim that offering a "track record" for a program that doesn't provide signals and requires discretionary trading to be disingenuous. At least for right now, it just doesn't make any sense to me. It might could in some form but not right now and not in the form you suggested or for the purposes that you're thinking of. John if you have more questions or suggestions then feel free to message them to me in private or email them to us. Thanks, Curtis

I started by focusing on 1 stock. It has always been my belief that a trader needs to be a "specialist" in a few products which he becomes very familiar with. In general, I feel that discretionary traders who do well focus on a few products whereas system traders often do well trading many products. You need to get a feeling for what you're more interested in.. if you're more interested in macro-economic style analysis or just calling direction (like me) then the S&P 500 is a great contract. A lot of people complain about it but really the entire market is mostly correlated these days. If I say the S&P 500 is going up tomorrow then most of the time the NASDAQ, Crude, Oil, Apple, and so forth will also be going up. I haven't ever really traded stocks. So I can't say how that works. You might take a look at SMB Capital. I think they trade stocks. But, I feel like futures the best fair and unequal market there is. ---- Curtis Home - OrderFlowDashPro

You're best bet is probably NADEX. They have spreads which trade similar to futures and binary options. They have a point value of something like $10 futures per contract (10th ticks worth like $1) and $100/binary option ($50/bet on 50:50). --- Curtis http://orderflowdashpro.com

John, First let me clarify that my company is OrderFlowDashPro and I use AlphaReveal for reading the tape. There are some real misunderstandings about my software, my claims, and what I am doing here. Let me try to address your concerns... 1. Who is your software developed for? What are your claims regarding it? The software was developed for myself, an experienced tape reader and trader. I've stated the software is the most advanced tape reading software ever developed. I think this is evident with what we've already shown -- some of the most powerful features haven't been demonstrated yet. I strongly believe that my product offers both the easiest way to read the tape (and order flow) and the clearest picture of the order flow and order book imbalances ever developed. We have thus both the most advanced and the easiest to read picture of the order flow. However, it is up to the individual trader to make money using this information. Really a lot of people misunderstand and think that I developed the software to help novice traders. I developed the software primarily for professional, profitable traders and aspiring futures traders. Sure, I do feel that most active discretionary futures traders could derive benefit from our software. While I've been encouraged to provide training and it is something we're looking at-- it is not something we're offering right now. 2. Why do you post live trade calls? I post my trade calls to help me stay in optimal flow with the market. Maintaining flow state was one of the guiding principles that went into the development of our software. I also posted the live market calls to encourage other traders to post live calls and forward looking analysis. It was my feeling that a thread "day trading the e-mini" would be best focused on forward looking analysis or live market analysis whereas historical calls, help for novices etc, would be more suitable for other threads -- perhaps "e-mini anaylsis and training". For me, posting the trade calls is primarily for my benefit and secondarily for the benefit of other highly attuned active traders. They aren't designed for others to be able to copy me nor for the casual follower of the market. 3. Do you have a track record and how does it relate to your product? I don't thinking "trading ability" is a good way to evaluate the quality or suitability of a program -- except in one aspect for me. The one aspect is that I made a choice to use my product for live trading even from the very beginning. This gave me great insight for product improvements, and incentive to "get things right" . But, just as an aside, yes I had 2 of the top ranked futures systems at C2. 4. Were you using this thread to promote your software? I have not linked or even mentioned my software in this thread except in relation to questions or concerns regarding it or when it would be educational or a direct statement of fact. To the contrary, I've tried to lead by example by posting live analysis. John, I agree that if other traders followed my lead and started posting their live market and forward looking analysis then this would be the best thread possible. I do feel that most of the past looking analysis, novice help, product related stuff, and so forth would be best for other threads though. I think "E-mini Analysis & Instruction" could be useful. Curtis

I've learned an important lesson over the years but it really started to hit home the last few weeks. That lesson is that "doing" or "executing" or whatever you want to call it: action often produces the greatest benefit. The antagonist to such a powerful momentum of a force would be procrastination, over analysis, inaction, and poor implementation. I'll take just 2 examples. I had known about the benefits of alternate or intermittent fasting for over 10 years. I was very knowledgeable on the subject and had found it improved the health of my pet's lives tremendously. Yet, I had never did it myself. This year I watched a 50 minute clip on youtube and just did it, and have lost over 2 and 1/2 pants sizes so far. I shared the information with my mom and she's seen tremendous results. Yet, how many thousands of people watched the same clip and experienced no change at all? I suspect the majority of them because they didn't take any action. I started reading the 4 Hour Work Week last week. I haven't read it all. But, I took just 1 principle in the book the 80 vs 20 principle and started to apply it and execute on that one idea as best I could. I've seen tremendous benefits. And, I think how about how just knowing about such a principle is hugely underwhelming. I even knew about the concept previously and implemented.. Before I knew of it as focusing on high return vs low return activities. The improvements I've seen are entirely due to my better execution. Instead of focusing on "higher return" vs "lower return" activities, I'm now just focusing on the highest returning activities. Take a single principle or lesson from any self-help book, trading book, or health book and just execute it on as best as possible for a few weeks, and I'm going to dare say that you'll see greater results then you'd get from reading 3 similar --even better-- books and the knowledge contained within them. --- Curtis

Weighing a higher probability HOD at least for the next couple hours is likely in... a retest of 55ish could be in play

Heavy selling developing at these highs.. will try 1 short only due to momentum nature.. must take it off quickly

If market can hold above 49 then a retest higher is likely.. ---- Market still looks to be possibly reversing here... need the limit order driver to pull up. It looks like HFT bots try to buy every low then unload the inventory for a few ticks.

At 52.50 we had a surge in buying.... however the limit order traders exhausted all the buying. I view this activity as equity driven buying programs vs larger futures speculators. Others might view it as short covering but however you view it... when the buying programs finished the market was free to fall some more.

Bias is short with caution off the open...

Very large limit offer imbalance off the 55.50.... its important to watch how the trade responds to such imbalances... Traders are buying but so far haven't been able to push through these order book imbalances. --- At order book imbalances, once the buying is exhausted we'll see HFT shoot in market sell orders. Order book imbalances can be taken out when one or more buy programs become synchronized.

Replenishing bid at 52.50 exhausted market order selling --- Early indications are that this selling could turn around.. cautious to be short here will be providing less commentary... have to refocus on my performance...

For general note taking, I recommend TreePad. Alternatives would be Microsoft OneNote, KeyNote, and perhaps even FileMaker. All said Gmail works fairly well too. For predictions, I recommend that you use a simulator and place trades through that because that is the most accurate. There are several free simulators out there. NinjaTrader has a nice simulator for day trading. Collective2 is designed for system developers but could work well for your task. If you develop strategies/studies then you could also link the specific strategy to your notes to form somewhat of a "free form" database.

Herd short from 55.25.. just where the market reversed from.bias is down but also keeping in mind we could be entering a new momentum driven regime.. if I see unusual activity then will slow my trading down until learn this new environment.. if we can trade below 55.25 then some additional range extension would be anticipated.. likely last update for today.. (busy)

Large selling developing as we trade below open... buy/sell programs often trigger at such points.. --- weighing a higher probability of range extension below overnight lows...

Open was 56.50... also where largest long imbalance is..

Very large volume printing in this 56.76-57.25... large limit supply.. fair amount of negative order flow.. it is conducive for shorts if we hold below this level

Bias is short... look for restest of lows

I'm very careful when I execute in the "pocket" or what some call the pull back areas in the market. In these areas, often larger institutional traders will sit with limit orders. It is possible by tracking the aggregate volume in the Volume.Tracking.Accumulator where the "herd" is short or long. They are always going to be long/short near the new highs/lows or near the extent of the distribution in market profile terms. One technique I use is to track the price in relation to these overall imbalances... I will also track how price responds to order flow more precisely. Now when I said I was careful to execute on what some call "breakouts", this isn't always the case. It depends on market context but I do find this method requires larger stops. At times, I have preferred this method. Shorting is even more difficult because the liquidity providers, often sitting "off market", can hold up the market for surprisingly long periods of time. So, we'll see traders trying to get short.. market making a new high and stopping them out. Often by the time the real move gets underway, it starts with the fewest participants. Often these changes will occur at obvious points that block out certain groups of traders.