Predictor

I hear that if Corzine (MFGLOBAL) could have kept his positions that they would be worth quite the fortune now. Anyone have more specific information about how those bonds are doing? Here is one such article... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-20/if-you-bought-greek-bonds-in-january-you-earned-79-euro-credit.html

Very busy week, NinjaTrader has just announced us a partner on their website, and so I feel that now is the right time to share some of the features we haven't shared until now. I just sent this video out where I introduce our Q-Tracker™ which allows us to estimate where our order is within the queue! We found under our testing scenarios that we were around 95% accurate, i.e position within +-5%. Our proprietary algorithm uses both changes in the book and executed orders in determining the estimate. Your results may vary but so far in my live trading its been pretty spot on. We use the same type capabilities for tracking spoof orders. Even better, I've developed new methods for reading the tape based on knowing queue position and pull information. I share that in the video at the bottom. Some of the other new features which are very significant: * We are now highlighting using the foreground color the volume that is currently updating while the current/bid ask is highlighted using the background color. This allows the trader to always know whether the volume is newly printing or was printed previously when using our OrderFlow Monitor and, of course, there is never flicker. * We now have boxing for the HV nodes in our OrderFlow Bars™ and added 10's rounding option. * We've upgraded and updated our Time&Sales Inspector (more on that later) and added pre-defined color themes. The program is finished but we're still testing the ordering process. It will be available within the next several days for those interested. Thanks!

Nice blog... lot of new information for me! But I don't trade stocks. The author writes: Futures market microstructure should be the model and standard for reforming our equities markets. I see 2 great concerns for HFT. One is that the HFT trading is speeding up the market making it more risky for traders and the second is that HFT is taking away normal liquidity which is another form of risk. Important to note that HFT should be defined as trading strategies that require and take advantage of speed advantages requiring co-location and unavailable to other traders and that it doesn't include day traders, scalpers, or other technical traders. It does seem that equities have been hardest hit by HFT and that equities proprietary traders are the hardest hit followed by retail day traders. I would add its not just HFT but also dark pools and all manner of shenanigans that compromise the NBBBO pricing mechanism. Curtis - Home - OrderFlowDashPro

Keeping in mind H1 is around 78... watching currently but will only take an exceptional opportunity.. unless today turns into a strong trend day then it will be hard to difficult to exceed h1... about 50k contracts accumulated so far...will watch what type of response to what I expect to be a heavy book in the 78ish region Offering 77.75..77.5 -- LQ providers pulling to 78.5.. marketing in.. ---- seeing some signs HOD is in

Bias is shift to long at lows... Not an easy day today.. exceeded my profit target nonetheless and DFD. My experience is after exceeding profit goals my risk/reward doesn't increase so I won't be active. There is some opportunity on long side at lows. Very large limit order imbalances on buy side all way down.. Our software gives the me (the discretionary tape reader) a tremendous advantage. The first generation programs that only display the transacted orders are not suitable for the type of precision required in today market.. imho Still very difficult... today the action was for dropping on buy programs... buy program, drop, buy program, drop. It makes it rather difficult but was able to recognize the pattern early. A lot of sell programs are only programmed to go off on a new high... so as soon as we hit a new high then they push it to a new low.

LQ provider reset to 70.75...

LQ providers have pulled to 74.50... will be keen to see what happens around there ---- Consumer confidence at 9.55. If I'm not filled before then may pull... and watch for a better short opportunity on an extreme movement to h1 ---- Some demand at 74.50 if we break that then I could target new lows --- Great entry... not worth the risk of holding through report though. will wait and watch --- Reshorted.. reading tape updats will be delay --- Market likely to jump to new low momentarily..

Bias is short... currently offering at 75.50

Levels for next 24 hours. H2: 1482 H1: 1478 L: 1474 Market is currently at 1476.75.

Very distinctive and not seen before selling suggests HOD is in...

1466.50 looks like a reasonable short... I can see the LQ providers resetting to this level and it is near our H1 reversal point ---- Bias is short off 66.50. Strong order flow... buy side... need it to reverse here or only take a scalp --- LQ providers are resetting to 65.25... may get 64ish even --- OF has turned 1 sided negative.. good sign

Nice work... if you can get it... dfd --- Absolutely believe that what we've created a superior software for reading the order flow. I look forward to being able to share this after we release. Hopefully it will happen within the next several days...

Both the buy and sell algorithms running now are trying to do business around 61.25/61.50... sometimes you'll see an algorithm that waits there too long and apparently has a timer to go to market... ---- Buy programs have started to hit the market... hard for me to execute here though because the its a small range. not much opportunity. They seem to be programmed to go off at random times but they tend to continue buying once they start. --- Attempting a short off the 63... so far LQ providers have been pulling out... its a 1 shot. -------- What happens is LQ provider pulls the offer above... then sell program hits... pulls.. sell program hits... or rather sell algorithms.. this is why we can see the market just marching along higher even though there is more aggressive selling ---- See some evidence we may retest lower range still...

Tentatively offering liquidity at 59.25.... ---- Wow, our newest order flow tools give us unprecedented insight into the order flow dynamics.. I haven't shared these with the public yet but am very excited. I can't share them until we release (because we have several competitors watching everything we do ). But it's very exciting.. I can see new dynamics in the order flow. --- Here are a few other things that may be relevant for today's action Empire State -> Below Exp http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

Nice average low so far between my anticipation and the computer's est low.. Fairly strong buy imbalance below 60 in the order flow. I may be inactive today as I was active from overnight. Market looks rather weak here still... ---- LQ provider is resetting inventory to just below the 60.. 59.25

A lot of algorithms currently in use are primed to only buy on a down tick or sell on an up tick... provides for rather interesting dynamics. This is also why often in a downtrend/uptrend that when a buy/sell program is exhausted that the "trend resumes" because it was just a single or limited buyer....

Not usually active over night but see some evidence market may test the 61.50. Currently at 63. It's a mix of programming and testing the software. Always encourage all traders to trade in "discrete" manner... ------ Discrete simply means each trade is like a prediction.. win or lose then move on. I'm weighing odds we trade down to 60 or so but right now based on the flow and book a test of 61ish is in store.

I want to explain a certain behavior that is evident in the market. This behavior is we will see mostly market sell orders coming in and then the market will jump higher.. all sell orders and then jump higher. And so forth.. This behavior is caused by all the offered inventory being pulled above the market (or below the market). Both the liquidity providers and larger institutions can strongly influence the market by pulling orders above and below the market. So what might be happening? In one explanation, a LQ provider instantly reacts to increase order flow and pulls his bid. He accumulates inventory at this new level and then pulls his offers to unload the newly acquired inventory at a small profit. If he controls most of the inventory close to the market then he can move the market back and to try to maintain net neutral. This is why you'll see in a range market all the buy orders near the highs and the sell orders the lows. The interaction between the LQ provider and the longer term trader is very key. With the HFT, what we tend to being seeing is that the HFT traders are keeping tons of liquidity near the market but there isn't any liquidity off market because the traditional institutions can't/aren't leaving any out. I believe that the spike movements are a combined herding effect of institutions either pulling offers off market (or not having any out) and the HFTs.

Computer generated levels for next 24 hours. I don't always use these in my trading. As any sort of estimation, they have many limitations. However, on average I believe they will be quite a bit more accurate then most levels that traders tend to use: H2: 1470 H1: 1466 L1: 1465 I am somewhat more bearish. Projected stop (which shouldn't be hit) is 1442. I'm weighing a higher probability of a stop run but keeping an open mind. If we were to start to hold below L1 then a run lower could develop.

Bid here is rather weak.. retest of 63 could be in store.. read not too strong last update for today.. feel free to post your real time analysis...

Not enough time... barely enough time to write it out esp after I place trades on it. I can do a post wrap up but not in real-time unless I was sharing my screen which I'm not setup to do. Market is turning more negative... what we're seeing now is buying each time the market ticks down and its unable to move the market higher. This is a result of a limit order trader stepping down the market. This is a concern but I think it will take a bit more time to fully develop... --- Buy program just triggered... if this buying doesn't drive market higher then we could get another run down. I will be exiting on any strength here..

Stronger stance by Obama could be viewed as bullish...

Large selling at 62.50 was unable to move market lower... replenishing bid.. if we move higher/away then those can often be good contrary indicators

Driver today seems to be aapl... still building significant short interest and haven't traded above them. This could be setting up for a trend day to down side. --- Bias is still to upside but with greater risks now. It looks like a stop run was triggered at 63.25.. if we can trade above that then that would be a good sign for bulls. I'm just looking for a small movement but on the longer time frame things are looking worse. --- New sell programs triggering --- Strong bid as appeared for first time in day.. --- AAPL is rallying to near HOD

I'm looking for a reversal trade... we're in this 67 region where my algorithms projected a low.. I'm able to see the depth and can see short term traders are targeting 64.50