Predictor

@jdevron Yes, I am among the best at calling the market. I do consider that I may be the best in the world on the time frame that I can call it. I haven't met or seen anyone else who can do what I can. I have heard stories, so I know it is possible. I don't know any about your prop firm but prop firms have very specific types of models for generating revenue and don't typically predict the market in advance up to 1-2 days like I do. I am well versed in how prop funds operate. If you are to imply that just because I have superior ability that it infers I would easily get a job. This is not realistic. I knew a lot of brilliant programmers growing up and many didn't have a job. They did open source. I was in the top 20% of programmers for years before I was able to get a job and when I finally got into the field, I was surprised I was among the best. Getting a job is more about meeting the requirements, take this from someone who met all requirements for working at Microsoft, one of the most challenging places to get into for a technical person (not a manager). My trading time frame (time to hold) is closer to hedge funds. The best hedge funds require at least 500 million under management over 5 years before they will even consider you. The "lowest people" hired are Phd's with skills in specific areas. As for prop firms, there aren't many legit of those out there either. One very open "prop firm" owner is Don Bright of Bright Trading. They focus on pairs trading. He makes it very clear that his methods require at least a million in buying power. Other prop firms rely on execution advantages or use HFT. If you look at my C2 systems, on my discretionary system I am not even seeking subscribers because it isn't worth it to me. I only use that for advertising to potential and serious high net work investors and tracking and auditing my results -- something any serious trader will understand. I would disable subscribers on this one but then it disappears. I only take subscribers on my mechanical system. Jdevron, just because you work at a prop firm, you should not assume you have superior skills over another trader. They may be doing something different then you are and may indeed be superior. Likewise, I'm sure there are position traders who have specific skills that I don't have. I am always careful to use my language precisely so as to make it clear that I'm referring to selective and specific cases when I refer to my ability, i.e it is not an ability in general. Likewise, it is not unlikely that some strategies that prop firms use rely on advantages that don't exist to retail traders. In fact, this is a large purpose of the prop model, to generate advantages over the retail sphere. It therefore does not conclude that a successful prop trader would be successful in trading a small retail account. This is why I am asking about scalping because I don't scalp or know anything about. Thanks. Nobody yet has came forth with a claim. In fact, it seems that the people here are rather nasty and would prefer rather to attack me then think logically. Actually, do you know that there are more people who've made millions in the market who can't trade then those who can! Yes, this is true. Why do you think that is? Have you considered it? It is worthwhile to consider as it is a fundamental element of capitalism and leads to the wealthy and class distinction. You want to read Ace on The River, Felix Dennis, or read about how the Charlotte Hornets became to be.

@noego unlike 99% of the traders around.. my work is open for anyone to see. Why do you think I attracted so much negative energy? Because I've came between people and their dreams. Do you know what an immortality project is? Do you know why people kill themselves for certain beliefs? I've tapped directly into this negative energy. I didn't do it on purpose . I was just trying to get some facts to make a decision. Unfortunately, a lot of people do not want to see that the dream they desire is likely based on illusory claims. And, I'm not saying that everyone here can't be a hugely successful trader, it is undeniable it is unlikely to be as some expect it to be, though. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Denial_of_Death Hoping to hear from some scalpers.. trust me I'm not about tearing anyone down. If you knew me you'd know that I love and am very dedicated to study the market. Trust me, I was hoping it was very possible and that there I'd get a flood of people who were making 120k from 5k. While... I knew it wasn't true, sure I wanted to believe it was. Also, as it is clear that Levine's staff have read this thread. Do you provide a real money record for Dan's trading room? Does Dan take every single trade in the room with real money? If not then why not? Why do you encourage your students too, if he wont? Look forward to official response. If he does, how close are the hypothetical results to the real returns?

BTW here is a good consideration.. Imagine you work for Levine as a sales rep. How much you think they make? I imagine they don't make a ton! Maybe some do.. But, the point is now let's say you find out that he has a room that generates 8k per month on only 5k accounts -- that's 96k per year. What do you suspect you'd do? Hell, if I were you'd quit as soon as I got the money to go the room and go to room and make 100k per year. After 3 months you'd had 15k, you could do 200k your first year. What they will say is.. but you're not expected to just blindly follow the room. blah blah.. I tell you 2 things: #1 I consider myself one among the best in world at calling the market. #2 If it really worked I would blatantly take every trade without thinking and without any ego. That's saying something!! Some people will say "but what's wrong with this?" What's wrong with it is that its a lie. They are using that to get peoples money and its not true. People are spending thousands of dollars because of a lie. It is just like the con trick that the cold readers play on people. As James Randi would say, its not just harmless fun. It has potential to be very damaging. It is also detracts from what people who are actually achieving in the markets manage to do. More over, as some people didn't focus on: I'm already very successful. There is no greater ill then to waste my time. If the claims are true then I would need to refocus my trading and consider more angles. I would be required to consider such a style because my capital base is low. If the claims, as likely, are false and lies then it would be a huge cost and a waste of my time. @Gibby It is actually very common for trading rooms to post unrealistic results. I have a whole list that to do that. It is also very common for scam trading rooms to offer a free or low cost trial. Many use the revenue from low cost trial as part of their business model. It would be very difficult to validate trades made in a trading room unless the signals were sent automated to you and filled by you in a live account. I know this because I was in a trading room for a time. I didn't know what the hell he was doing! He would say "if bullish go long here or for a scalp go short... " The only trading room I"d ever consider would have to send me the trades via an automated platform, which is very possible. 1 Vendor actually has something called "signal box" that does. There are also brokers that offer this. I think CQG offers this option for gurus too. It is not hard to do these things contrary to what they want people to believe

@jackb And, I did that to avoid all the people trying to tell me how to trade, how to read a book and go do it.. all the things I'm getting here! It didn't work. I will tell you something, I am the most OPEN trader of anyone around. I guarantee you that most traders whether it is was with SIMULATOR or real money can not produce my returns!! Not for 6 months or a year.. I know this because my systems are top ranked out of all the thousands people have tried to make. And they try very hard, too. So, yes I am a successful trader by QUANTITATIVE measures. Against anything I can measure it too. Am I successful compared to people anonymous people on a board or compared to vendors who let you dream up the returns? Who cares. It can't be measured. Why do you think everyone is so upset that I'm so frank about things? That I'm so honest.. because everyone is running around losing money and not wanting to admit it. Everyone is running around and afraid to realize the Emperor has no clothes! Sure, maybe you did great on a simulator. Did you ever reset it? Start over? I can't do that with my record! Try to do what I did for # months I've did.. lets see how easy it is!! Maybe you did with real money but gave it all back.. Whatever i do is on my record.. good or bad and for anyone to see. No resetting. No lies. No "I don't predict the market.. I just scalp". This was another trick that Senters used, the "I don't predict market.. I just scalp". My thought was, "okay if true then why bother with the worthless analysis?" Anyway, I'm about ready to say this is settled. We've not heard from a single person stating they do these returns or vouching that they took every trade in the room and did these returns. We had a few first time posters telling me to go sign up with them. The reports from people who had tried their service were terrible. I'll leave it open. Maybe we will hear from some scalpers eventually or for from more people who took every trade with real money in the Larry Levines scalping room. Please speak up! Any full time scalpers in crude or 6e here? Looking forward to hearing what type of returns you've experience and what size account you did it with.

It is very hard to scalp period. It is unlikely you will profit by "true scalping" in futures market. The minimum you could take would probably be 1/2 to 1 point and still be profitable. So, a trader scalping may refer to a point. If you want to scalp a futures market, you should look for markets that have the largest tick size and largest intraday range. The 6e, crude, and Russel are mentioned often.

You should factor into how much you have of your account at risk. Yes, it does also make sense to use daily stop losses. But they could, also, be based on account risk and not your own feeling to that regard. In general, with a tiny account, risk should be reduced at the 25% of account level. It also makes sense to stop when ahead if you can't trade overnight because you have less time remaining to recover from any losses but only in terms of closed trades. . These types of considerations are a bit advanced in that focusing on them can be counterproductive for the beginner but are nonetheless important. It is worthwhile to consider: How much time is left in the game (early game, mid game, late game) (i.e day) % of capital at risk total closed trade profits open trade profits ----- Now, let's say you are a momentum trader and you are up $250 on a $1,000 account (like I was today) and you have a total of around $500 at risk. In this case, you have 25% at risk to break even and so you should start reducing your risk. Many successful traders just trade the open and morning session. I also do better with morning session. Trading late in day has many pitfalls, namely, limited time to recover and more fakeouts. It also depends on your style. You shouldn't set an upper limit per se but you should watch your total account risk and set a lower limit. If you aren't trading a hard system then it likewise makes sense to listen to yourself when you are losing and take time off, whether that be a day or a week. Most professional gamblers will step away when losing. Push harder when winning and take it easy when losing. A quantitative example might be that overbought indicators tend to get stuck when market trends strongly. Maybe it is a profitable indicator for you, if you can manage to avoid the bad losses, i.e don't keep fighting when it quits working!

Sorry, if I'm mistaken but this looks exactly like vendor crap . This is not a third party record. It is also not a real money record. It is a hypothetical record which means little. Let me explain why the third party auditing is important. First, hypothetical can be backtested or it can also be using a simulator that is setup to make it easy to produce fake results. It is also easy to fake a record, i.e hide losing trades or claim they weren't called. Third party auditing is based on real-time analysis gives you every trade and allows one to factor in realistic costs. A hypothetical record doesn't mean anything unless it is audited by a third party or is accompanied with real money results. A hypothetical third party record, while not ensuring future results, clearly defines past results. A lot of people have lost money @ C2 by following poor developed systems, sure. "Third party" means I don't have any control over what C2 reports as my trades. I can't try to gloss over a bad call. Each trade is recorded: entry and exit and the risk taken on the trade. The auditing party also determines the rules, often realistic to semi-realistic, for the fill engine. If a vendor is producing the record then there is a greater incentive and capability to tweak the results to look better then they would be in real-life. Especially important, is the per trade profit -- when it is very low then a very strong return, say 200% or 300% per year could end up being a -200% per year! So, it is obvious why they don't want to trade such methods and lose all their money. But, they are happy to make it appear the methods are hugely profitable. I have similar records that tradingadvantage sent to me. There are no trades shown. Only the points per month and it says "hypothetical". Guess what, if you have a real money record then you don't have to say hypothetical!! Also, you should look for a vendor that takes every trade with real money. If they aren't willing to take every trade in the room with real money then why should you?! I want to also clue you guys in: the big vendors will never admit to such transparency because it would be terrible for them. Some are losing money consistently and many more are only break even or marginally profitable. I'm sure there are a few gamblers too: big wins and big losses but no real consistency. Think about this, if you really made huge money in the markets, wouldn't you do everything possible to get your real money results out there? A lot of these guys, i.e Carter & Senters, work very hard to sell their spill. They are extremely motivated and driven to sell crap. It is inconceivable they would let such a sales tool go unused if it would make them look good. I've heard from 1 person who took traded in Levine's room: thanks. His results were very poor. I've heard from a lot of people clearly writing about things they want to believe rather then what they know and did. Does it make you wonder why I get attacked? It is because I'm coming in and tearing down their false hopes and dreams. If it wasn't me then it would be the market.. and the market isn't as nice about it. Look forward to more people who actually took every trade in Levine's scalping room (or as best as possible). How did it compare to their 8k hypothetical results? One suspicious part about their record is just the pure winning months %. They only had 1 losing month out of 12. Such highly consistent returns are very suspect, as well and was one flag that gave madoff away.

@ tams I'd ignore you if I could. You are derailing this discussion with your inane comments. Just refocus this thread, I'm only looking for traders who have scalped the ES or another future for a year and have made at least 60k in net profit OR those who took every trade in larry's scalping room and can comment on the performance you had in relation to what they claim. If anyone has scalp the ES for at least 1 year with only $5,000 account required and averaged even 5k per month (Larry's program claims 8k) with a 2 point stop then I'll both pay you for real money records and for mentoring. If you have achieved similar results, i.e came close, then I'd still be interested to speak with you and might also pay you for mentoring.

Robi, nice job from for a firs time poster. He hasn't shown me the real money track record of what he claims to do. The average profit per trade was $20. They claim 8k per month profits on a 5k account. I do not believe them. If the simulator was the least bit off then instead of 100k profit, at $20 per trade, we could be looking at a 100k loss. Moreover, not a single person here has indicated they have personally did this performance here.

@tams please quit posting in this thread. you are distracting. I already made it clear I'm interested in people who have scalped the futures and made significant profits (over a sustained time) or taken Larry's course. Thanks.

@bobcollett Avg hold is around 20 hours. You can see at C2: it does change. My old bread&butter was a 2-3 day trade. It tends to be around 20-30 hours. My associate does not use the scalping he room. He is very satisfied but trades in using the MP room. It is rumored that Levine made his money by arbitraging the big contract against the mini. Arbitrage is basically profiting from the bid/ask spread. Most pit traders profited by capturing the spread, many times per day. Very interested in more first hand experience, i.e not what is rumored or what one hopes or thinks or dreams. Has anyone scalp the ES or other futures with a 5k account and made 100k per year? Has anyone scalp the futures and made 100k per year with any size account? What size was needed?

@Tim The top of the DOM In that picture is cut off. It could be in sim mode. Also, a good vendor can make millions from sales. Showing some live trades at a potential cost of even thousands of dollars would be justifiable. I would imagine that he is trading live, obviously he has people come and sit with him. That doesn't mean that he is profitable to a worthwhile extent, however. Say, he is only marginally profitable or losing, again by not making any performance claims it protects them.

Lol.. I don't have any software even. I haven't heard from 1 scalper yet...

One concept Dr. Steenbarger mentioned a few times was that if you can eek out even a small bit more from your trades then it can add up to a lot. If you get just 1 point better fill over 100 trades then that is worth $5,000. Now, I have always considered myself who trades "in the large". When I try to eek out that 1 extra point I've found it often cost me a lot more. But on the other hand, there are times I go to market and could have "easily" got a better entry. If you look at a method that only makes on average 3 points then 1 extra point is 33% gain. How do you manage to get best fill while not missing the trade? One idea of mine would be to use an algorithm for this, I just tell it I want to go long/short and it uses a programmed logic to get me the best fill. Note I'm not talking about "filling a big order" but getting me the best pricing while not missing the move.

Its a good question! I was honestly hoping I'd be wrong and there were people doing these returns. It is also a good question why I would even try to go outside what is working for me since the primary reason I trade is to serve and to get better at what I do best. It is a good question. One thing, is this was one style of trading that I could never get to work for me.Even though I trade to serve, I am also realistic and if there are methods doing 120k on 5k margin then I mean I should try to learn those methods. Plus I know there are many successful ways to trade in the markets. If it *were* possible then I could at least do that until the 100k mark. One other thing is this nagging feeling that maybe shortening my holding time would be a good thing. I don't know but I've shortened from 2-3 days to 1 day. Sometimes it helps me and sometimes it hurts. I'm always trying to think about what is advantage of the small trader. I came up with 2 scenarios: A. Getting limits filled at hard places. B. Running markets at opportune times.

All of my trades are audited in real time by C2. I take every trade in my account with small proxy trades (see my other thread). I find that this format works better for auditing the trades because it is more accurate, doesn't leave anything to doubt. I feel like I'm the best in the world at *what I do* which is predicting the market in advance. Returns anywhere from 30% to 150% per year are conceivable (or -30% to -50%) with my current methods. >how soon can you break out of the "small" trader mode? Not sure what you mean? I would need probably 60k start building toward trading for a living. I believe it is possible for me to return significantly more then 30% but only by taking real risks. It would only possible if I bet more when I'm confident and take some selective risks. It might be possible in the options market too where I could limit my risk better then futures or by going to a smaller time frame. It also depends on my market read and how well I'm functioning. In my nadex account, fx in 6 months I return 50% on the model account.. I actually return 150% on the margin ($1500 at peak). But, I'm probably on the limit of leverage. It is not something I can maintain unless I use confidence based betting and also am careful not to take trades that have less then say 1 point profit.

@tams you win.. one lesson in successful gambling/trading is you can't win every fight. Now, can we hear from the real scalpers here? I've seen a promoter/trader here with a tagline to his site. I'd like to hear from you. You trade the 6E and ES. TimRacette? I'd like to get your thoughts on these claims average 8k per month on a 5k account with 2 point stop on every trade. Have you ever did this or know anyone who did ? Let me add the 8k was consistent, like every month.. not taking huge risks. Let me preface it with most of the professional day traders I know claim 50% return is a good year and even 30% is good. That agreed with my own research.

Not important, it is all that matters -- either an audited third party track record or a real money track record. A sim record provided by company that shows $20/trade per profit could be losing 100% of the account if the slippage isn't set realistically or it might be break even. There is no way to validate it. This is not to say that vendors don't lie (see the link above). But, most of them don't want to get in trouble so they are careful to preface it with simulated returns. Also, there is no reason that a company that has a million and claim to return 120k on 5k margin couldn't easily take 5k and produce a real money track record. How am I know to know if the content is worthwhile? Some kid may setup a website and honestly think he has a great method and tell me I should spend my time to learn.. turns out it isn't as profitable as what I already know -- I've wasted my time. It is not just about the lies but also there is no other way for me to even know if the methods are suitable for me! So, beyond novice training which can be learned for free or cheaply, I think that vendors should be very clear about what they are offering. One vendor, Hubert Senters, is pretty slick about how he does it. He doesn't make any claims about his methods but he talks about how he made a fortune in the market. The implication is this is what they are doing. This is a really nice slickster trick... it allows you to imagine the great returns you can make!! They (the vendors) cant tell you because well you know you're just beginning. Right They don't want to tell you because they know you wouldnt buy their courses to return less then the market!! They'll either say well it'd make you feel bad or you can't compare yourself to the gurus. BS!! Showing results is the strongest sales tool possible. So, they would for sure show them. But then they say we can't.. its against the rules!! More BS.. it is only against the rules if the results are simulated. If they are real money then they can for sure show them and treat them as real money.

No, I couldn't afford the fees. Have you seen my other posts? I trade very small contracts and a tiny account. Does the fact I couldn't afford the fees mean that what I offer is more valuable then what promoters offer? Do they have an audited third party hypothetical track record? Do they claim to take every trade with at least some money on the line? (I do -- it is not a claim but I do since April.) Let me add also, I do not have any mentor students. I put that out there because I feel I can offer more then others. I have a few people who've bought my reports and have been satisfied with them. I've only sold a very few copies. I am not a big time promoter nor do I claim to trade for a living. I work a regular 9 to 5. I do however consider myself one of the best in the world at calling the market, i.e making quantified predictions. I'm "okay" at trading and always learning. I've been successful on the simulator with many styles of trading including day trading (as defined by not holding overnight). However, I've not been successful at scalping. I've not been successful to the degree that I could take a 5k account and average 8k per month with a 2 point stop which is what they are claiming. I have systems that can return maybe 120% per year on minimum capital with high risk. I feel I can do 30% return at 1:1 and better risk/reward. These are just goals of mine I felt I can meet. Maybe at the limit, a 300%-500% return on minimum capital might be possible. Even that would be a far cry what their claims.. let's see 300% = 21k on a 7k account or only 1.75k-3k per month!

@tams you seem just to be argumentative. Who are you referring to by "them"? You mean a certain vendor where the CFTC/NFA found they were losing for 12 or 13 years -- never had a winning year --- or the big options training company that were fined because their instructors made millions and didn't trade for a living? Wait, didn't trade at all!! If by "them" you mean snakeoil salesmen, sure I talk down to them like the slugs they are. What is the difference between "them" and me? 3 things: 1. have real trading skills, 2. I'm honest, and 3. I do provide evidence to support my claims. If by "them" you mean Larry Levine, I have not determined what category he belongs in. I know a student who is very happy with their program which is how I learned about it. It has certainly worked for him. However, I will remain, more then rightfully, skeptical until they provide me sufficient evidence that their claims deserve merit. One important consideration is I already have considerable success with my systems. I have systems that can return 100% per year (provided they continue to work). So, I'm not looking for basic training. I'm evaluating them on the ability to far outdo anything my current methods can do, i.e based on their claims. It is just like the market. The market judges you on what you claim. That's all I'm doing. Note, I'm not making any specific claims against any vendor. But, if you do enough research you'll find that many of the big name vendors/promoters were indeed completely fake. I would guess that the majority of educators out there promoting to teach day trading are total fakes: i.e they aren't consistently profitable, aren't consistently beating the market, etc. Many are trading on simulator which is fine if they admit to such and also take into account realistic commission and slippage (as I do, they don't) and audit the record (they don't). The few that are trading real accounts are for sure bleeding them as fast as they can get gullible subscriber money or only break even. And then there are a very few who are really successful.. a very few and I suspect none of the big name promoters. http://www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet/Case.aspx?entityid=0289721&case=00-14&contrib=CFTC

Sorry, I am not denigrating and do not consider this service my competitor. They have millions of dollars and a "real business". I'm just a market predictor aka a "market fool". I do put my services out there because I feel offer a lot more then most other vendors (i.e a realistic track record of out performance that one can check, even if (partially) hypothetical). I mainly put that in there because at another forum, I posted the same question and receive many people talking about trading methods, etc. It was clear that they were trying to help a novice. But, they weren't speaking from first experience knowledge. To be honest, I do not respect most vendors because it is clear they are ONLY capable of selling worthless crap. I have a whole list of big million dollar vendors that weren't able to trade way out of paper bag.. and the beginners always get suckered by these people. While I could provide them a real background that could lead to a more then modest success in the markets. But, I am in no way denigrating this vendor. In fact, if they can provide a real money track record of calls that backs up what they sent me as their room calls then I will make a concerted effort to take their training.

Regards, I know a lot of people don't have the money to trade the ES futures. I have 2 of the top ranked > 6 months old strategies at C2 and I still didn't feel quite up to trading the full contracts. I wanted to share my experience trading at NADEX. I don't have any affiliation with them. But, I think not many people know about them and want make others aware of them! I only found them because I was looking for CFD's which aren't available to us US guys. Anyway, NADEX offers bull spreads based on the futures and forex market (i.e ES, CL, YM, etc). These are limited risk/reward spreads and are small as $1 tick. The SP500 bull spread is based on the ES and has $10 to 1 ES point equivalent. I wrote 2 writeups on them here: http://themarketpredictor.com/Details/2011/2/26/Nadex,%20Emini%20Alternative http://themarketpredictor.com/Details/2011/3/1/NADEX%20Binaries,%20Attractive%20Solution ------------- Brief benefits: * Great leverage and granularity of contracts * Wide range of markets (Forex, Index, Commodities) * No PDT rules * Limited risk/reward Detriments: * Not as efficient as futures market (paying outside best bid/best ask) * Time limited contracts. This is my biggest issue to date. * Tick size to commissions is high * Leverage can work both for and against you I wanted to share also strategies I've found for successfully trading them. I've had my account since April and on a 3k model account (1k of capital) my net real money return at peak was $1500+, currently around $500. General principles for trading the bull spreads * It tends to pay to take on more risk then buy right at the floor/ceiling. I'm typically willing to make no more then 3 to 4 points of premium (market premium). General strategy is to first, look at the market price and see where it is trading. Look at the wide spread 800 points. Next, go to the narrow spreads and see find the spread that is priced most closely to market. Check the dollar risk/reward. Be sure to cap both point risk and dollar risk to avoid paying too much in premium. Capping point risk will help you avoid paying too much in premium if you make a mistake. * Do not close the spread for a loss unless you know you are wrong. I've had spreads go to zero and then come back and break even or even make money. While stops are required in highly leveraged futures trading, when you don't use stops then you maximize your winning potential. I only close spread if I'm sure that I'm wrong and typically only at near break even. * For the futures market, you typically have to execute outside the best bid/best ask. If you trade $30 per point then you are down $18 when entering and exiting a trade. If you hold until expiry then will not pay the spread (your expiry commissions however will not be capped at $7/turn). However, if the trade reverses you won't have time for it to recover either. I.e the spreads expire at end of day and this has proven my greatest challenge in trading them. * Be sure to figure in your fees when trying to break even and choosing trading style. If you trade 3 contracts then you will be down around $18 in spread and $6 in fees when entering: you must make $24 to break even. In general, I do not recommend to "scalp" these because of that. They do work well for my style -- taking out trend moves. You can also take out a measured move with them, as well -- 3 to 4 points. * Be sure to look at time expiry. In general, you want as much time as possible unless you have a specific reason not too. * Prefer binaries when buying/selling extremes. The bull spreads will often not respond to the degree you'd hope for because the time premium is such a large part of price at extremes. * Sometimes paying a slight bit in premium is not a bad idea. The premium will decay slowly over time and so even if you pay up then you won't lose that "instantly". Generally though, the market pays you to take more risk. Trying to find a risk/reward where you are only paying a slight bit in premium but have capped risk and can leverage to a greater extent. * In general, do not buy spreads that out-of-the-money until/unless you are advanced and have strong reason. Principles on binaries * Prefer to buy binaries on price extremes * Remember you give up a significant edge when trading binaries: the edge is around 8% with commission. Most technical based methods only have a 2% to 2.5% edge. Be sure you have a strong edge when trading the binary. * Only sell a binary at a loss if you are sure the trade is dead and you are wrong. I've had binaries go to nearly worthless on me and then expire with full payout. However, if I'm wrong then I will close them out even if there is only $15 to save. When closing out a losing binary, try to pick a limit order that will get you best price and cost you least amount. I mean be willing to fight for it: you've probably lost most of the value by time you recognize you are wrong anyway. * Prefer at-the-money or slightly out-of-the-money binaries. --- Also, I don't trade the Forex markets yet but they claim their Forex markets are often as good as the spot FX, i.e your bid/ask. So, whether you will have to pay outside the best bid/best ask depends on the market. It is always the case with the ES but the spreads are fairly constant and so I just factor that in. I'm not stating it is easy. But, if you are trading the ES on simulator successfully and if your strategy isn't just scalping then I highly recommend you to start getting some real money experience. You can open account for as little as $100. I'm trading with only 1k in the account right now but I'm willing to put in a lot more in the account if needed. My recommended lot sizes for a 3k account: Small 2 Contracts = $20 point. Use for widest spreads. Standard 3 Contracts = $30 point. Heavy 4 Contracts = $40 point. Only when most confident. Max account risk: I feel one needs to be able to take 12 losses in a row. This would be a max risk of around $250 per trade or 8% of account. You need to take into account probability of loss and the max loss. In futures market, my REALIZED risk per trade is often lower then trading spreads but my MAXIMUM risk is higher. Do not confuse theoretical risk/reward with PROBABLE risk/reward. In general, if you need to risk $350 to $500 on a trade then be prepared to do that with a tiny account. Even risking up to 20% of the account may be justified if you have a strong edge. Take advantage: Take advantage of the small size. I am probably capitalized enough where I could trade the ES on some days but may not take every trade. I have traded ES for years though but I could not trade the mini crude -- for example because I only started trading it. However at NADEX, I can trade crude with just a few hundred at risk. So, it is a good way to learn new markets too. I am taking only 1 new market at a time though. It is crude for now but based on what I read then the 6E? Euro? will be likely next.