Predictor

I'm seeing some indications that we may be putting in the top for a very long time here.. maybe the year. don't tend to make long term forecasts but.... will keep it in mind. Not going to get holden to the idea though

I've started this IF diet. The IF diet is reported to help repair the body, slow aging process, and lose fat. I am on the 24 day on/24 off cycle. According to the science (see Eat Fast and Live Longer BBC), that you can eat anything on the on cycle. I don't really get that hungry but I don't get satisfied easily. So when I start eating then I tend to overeat. I notice I probably get less hungry on fasting days then on eating days most of the time. I get hungry about 2x per day really strong but that's about it. Workout went smooth on fasting day. I will eat a few pieces of fruit or almonds. I probably run below 200 calories on fast days so far but willing to up it to 500 if I need too. I am hoping for some pretty dramatic results... nothing dramatic yet but I plan to give it about 6 weeks before making a final decision. http://www.livestrong.com/blog/the-end-of-dieting/

This market is causing me some trouble. I've shut down temporarily. The normal liquidity isn't there... I'm not sure what is going on but best to slow down when losing.

Right... market makers try to profit from the spread and their edge, which is the ability to see the order flow (resting and incoming). There is no way that you can do that. As a note, they are always taking the other side to the order flow. So they have to sell when it goes up and buy when it goes down. They can see the resting orders and the incoming orders and so they can adjust how much they buy/sell. They also have to put customers orders first -- although they've been known to cheat. ;0 I'm a vendor too. However, I'm just stating that JC/HC are big time "sales people". They have some good free info on their site but I know I was really impressed with them when I was a total greenhorn. Today with more experience, I wouldn't even assume that they could trade their way out of a paper bag. It is nothing personal but I've just been around longer. Most of the good info on their site can be found for free on CME anyway. just my 2 cents... trying to provide some real information here. As i said, there aren't any dedicated market makers in the futures anyway. A lot of vendors will try to use cool phrases like algo, market maker, hft, or "retail traders" to try to sound smart/insider/etc. But because they don't have a clue what they are talking about and use the terms in a completely wrong way.. which gives them away.

Yeah, I'd be careful of anything JC and HC says, they are big time vendors. I already told you that market makers don't use stops. They don't use stops at all. Okay, first the futures doesn't have market makers but there are liquidity providers. These LQ providers are typically going to be shorting when the market goes up and buying when it goes down. They average into trades and have enough fire power to push the market around at times to run stops. This is just one type of LQ provider. Another other type of LQ provider is going to be arbitraging the ES against a basket of stocks. Many LQ providers are running HFT systems. They use any number of methods to maintain net neutral at all times. They might hold a position for as long as a few seconds at most. Traditional market makers in stocks have an advantage that you don't have. They get to see the orders before they are transacted. They also don't use stops! They are required to make a market at all time. That means they have to be on both sides at all times. Stops would be pointless. They just adjust how much they buy/sell based on the demand and their edge. The first goal for any business is to produce a profit. Do you know what happens to all businesses that just manage to break even? They go bankrupt. I know you are well intention.. but hopefully this will get you thinking. Good luck.

MightyMouse, Think about this, a trader enters a trade with a reason -- the actual reason doesn't matter. What we can say is that probably if the trade starts to move in their favor or at least doesn't move a much against them that they have a better chance of being right then if the trade runs in the opposite direction. This will always be true if they use a stop loss. (The closer the price is to the stop the higher the probability the stop will be hit.. see binary options/binary tree distribution for more insight.. although the payoff changes dynamically such as to make all bets 50/50 assuming EMH) What most traders do is push the stop to break even as fast as possible.. what is that in essence doing and what is happening? A. The market is indicating at a higher probability the trader is right because it moved in his favor. B. The trader by moving his stop loss to break even has just now increased the chances that he will be stopped out because its going to be so close to where the current price is. Another way to think about this... is that the market judges in accordance with the claims made. If I can call a bottom to within 2 points right then the market judges based on that. If If I claim that I can call a bottom to within 2 points and that I know that the market won't retrace after moving 1 point then my claim has more stipulations... That's going to be infinitely more difficult... I stand by what I originally claimed that moving stop losses to BE will in most cases result in many small wins and larger losses. This does not mean that there isn't a time/place to move stop loss to BE -- which I do. However, typically it is because I know I'm likely to get stopped out and should just go ahead and take the max profit that I can. Or the market is undergoing some sort of change and I have booked plenty of profits and don't exact the market to go against me and don't want to be there if it does.. A good example where it makes sense to move a stop to break even is that I'm in a trade before a report with good profits and I expect the report to be good or have no effect. The BE stop can make sense in that case. Another example is that I think that a trade that went in my favor may be nearing its end. PS:You would be surprised also that the market makers/the market "we"/pitboys/whatever have you often see do see EXACTLY where most traders enter.. and most traders enter at obvious places.

Drive below 1401ish (I don't share exact levels but know them) could send us down to prior lows. Not looking good for long trade here. ---- Bias is short here. Position is flat. No more trading today for me.

I'm viewing today's action as rather bearish in short time frame. The big traders were short positioned before the event and they for sure came in at the highs to protect their positions.

Yes.. hit max risk limit. So I'm out for day.. was running about an average loss today. Spain downgraded may be the catalyst for this. DFD... --- I had the impression a lot of big players were positioned short. I think it took them by surprise. I think Bernanke's goal was not to move the market today. I was looking for some range extension in either direction today... attempted the short side early, got stopped out. Then got long.. reduced my loss. Was about 50/50 to call it a day but felt there was a good opportunity to get long again... I was running in front of the order flow expecting it to catch up. I knew it was a higher risk day coming in and was about not to trade it. But my daily risk limits and stops did their job. A bit disappointing but the cost for winning at speculation is sometimes losing.

Bias is long. Need the order flow to come in and support.

This one is pretty good. I usually delete the emails I get about trading in my inbox but I decided to take a look at this one. Some useful tips on Easylanguage in the video. Access Two Timeframes In EasyLanguage | System Trader Success

RichardHK Great questions. Absolutely moving a stop loss to break even is a sure fire way to lose. The market makers target BE stops extensively. The market doesn't let you get out for risk free.. come on now! Also if your entry is good then often others will enter around that position. Market makers absolutely do not trade this way. Market makers are arbitraging or working positions around an average price... i.e averaging/martingaling. My guess is that most market makers don't set stop losses but rather scale around positions over time.. like playing a massive game. They take a lot more risk too. Your idea of moving stop losses to break even quickly will surely result in many small losses when the trades would have worked out and many larger losses when it never goes in your favor. There is a time to move the stop to break even. It is useful but its not easy to define when it is appropriate. Typically it is better to take a profit off at the best point then wait for it come back down and just take a meager profit. Really there are 2 cases for moving a stop to break even. #1 the trade has ran extensively in your favor and the hypothesis is already played out. You can't see the market returning to your stop and if it does you want to be out of the market. #2 The trade is showing signs of trouble. You believe the trade isn't like to work out but aren't sure enough to take it off right then. This is pretty close to just taking the trade off because you don't think its working. You would never move a stop to break even (quickly) if you feel the trade is likely to work out. As for re-entering after a tight stop loss, it is possible but you will often lose ticks due to the excessive market orders. This will become very costly very quickly. Small stop losses can become very costly very quickly.. A loss is a loss. You may want to check my article 2 dark swans of stops... it is possible to use tight stops but the market needs to be volatile enough to give you a big winner to offset the losses. That means tight stops are better used in high risk markets.. where you are more likely to be able to obtain huge Reward to Risk ratios.

Nice work if you can get it... DFD hats off to the pit boys and locals.

New lows coming up... probably make LOD in next 10 minutes. --- Bias is long.. hypothesis LOD may be in

We could see more lows today.. could be a day to hold. Maybe this is the setup.. to run the market down so we can rally on the news? Pit boys.. we supposed to work together. I didn't get the memo that we weren't going to 1404ish today before heading lower. j/k --- My read of this market is that institutions were shorting for last several days. Its a good example of how well the LQ providers can hold the market up before a real move happens.

Nice work if you can get it... taking my shorts off... really added to those and made them work. Difficult start.. was up a lot on my long but didn't protect my profits.. close to max loss but recovered. Not quite hit profit target but a nice recovery. --- Bias is long here for a scalp..

Bias has shift to short side

My general impression is that institutional sentiment is short biased but there is a not insignificant chance of the market moving explosively higher. ---- Long off the open on tape read. ---- Adding to long. Need to see a good movement here or precarious position.

Nice work if you can get it... dfd

Strong support underneath these lows. Traders buying at current lows. It may be difficult to get significant range extension this week given the possibility for late week market moving news. --- Bias is long for a scalp.

Nice work if you can get it... great job to the pit boys for running those break even short stops. Cleared out that short inventory nice before the real run...

Added to my short... my read tells me that banks which are being use as a relative hedge are showing market to be stronger then it really is. Sentiment is negative. Looking for testing lows.

steve you are back on ignore permanently. I'm one of the only one here actually making real-time calls. -- Notice the banks are stronger. Funds are betting that any Fed action will benefit banks. Funds are shorting techs as hedge or rotating out of that sector.

My bias is short off the open... going to read tape and see what it says. --- Bias is still short. Some strong buying came in at open. A concern... weighing a slightly higher probability of negative range extension

I recall reading, but don't recall where from precisely, that the productivity of the city was a function of the number of chance encounters that the residents had. The higher the chance encounters then the higher the productivity. With that in mind, I am thinking that this thread could be something about encouraging those chance encounters but for the internet. I am thinking of a thread where we share inspirational, informational, and fascinating links/blogs/etc on trading information/materials. It could be on non trading materials if it is inspirational or has a high interesting value. I am interested in unique perspectives.. unique perspectives on the market.. unique perspectives on data... I will start with a few entries I've scoured that look interesting.. An Introduction To Pair Trading, http://mockquant.blogspot.com/2011/10/introduction-to-pairtrading-package.html A Collection of Resources On Market Micro Structure - could be interesting http://quantivity.wordpress.com/2010/01/12/how-to-learn-algorithmic-trading-part-3/ Blue Logo, Trading System Related http://www.blueowlpress.com/WordPress/ Good Jump Destination http://www.thewholestreet.com/ Udacity - online university http://www.udacity.com/ Coursera - online university https://www.coursera.org/ Silicon Zoo - non trading http://micro.magnet.fsu.edu/creatures/index.html Google News Archive (Search old news papers) This is now buried but still exist under News Search->Archive Here's a real news article on Jesse Livemore (just an example) http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?res=F20617FF395C13738DDDA10994DA405B858DF1D3 The Founders Group http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=Fh9WAAAAIBAJ&sjid=--MDAAAAIBAJ&pg=2914,4036584&dq=the+founders+group&hl=en Market News From 1914 http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=9TEBAAAAIBAJ&sjid=zSgDAAAAIBAJ&pg=2266,4565076&dq Data visualization http://fellinlovewithdata.com/guides/how-to-become-a-data-visualization-ninja-with-3-free-tools-for-non-programmers http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/magazine/16-07/pb_visualizing http://beautifuldata.net/ http://flowingdata.com/ 1926 - The Open Road - non trading http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0283525/ 20 Most Watched Ted Talks http://blog.ted.com/2011/06/27/the-20-most-watched-tedtalks-so-far/ Traderfeed http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/ BBC TV http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/tv/bbc_one_london/watchlive My blog http://themarketpredictor.com