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Predictor
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Everything posted by Predictor
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Remember Fed has dual mandate... jobs and inflation. stock market is not technically part of that.. although they add stability
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Game plan is to run out any shorts before the announcement... gotta drive to new highs
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Bias is long here.. look for retest of highs
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The market seems to be gaining some strength... I am thinking they may try to do a shakeout before any real move develops.. it often happens Plan 6... Fade/fade fade until the announcement.. market hasn't went anywhere
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Plan 2 is to look for a break after the announcement.... anticipating a trend move Plan 3 is to look for a retracement after the break after the announcement.. anticipating a continuation. Plan 4 is to do nothing... I am leaning to Plan 4. I will be reducing my max loss limit today.. the last time I traded FOMC, I didn't do that well.
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Federal Funds Rate - Target Level 0 to 0.25 % 0 to 0.25 % The FOMC announcement at 12:30 p.m. ET for the September 12-13 FOMC policy meeting is expected to leave the fed funds target unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25 percent (yes, the meeting is Wednesday/Thursday instead of Tuesday/Wednesday). However, many traders and analysts believe the Fed will extend guidance beyond 2014. There are mixed views on whether there will be an announcement of additional quantitative easing. Also, the Fed will release its quarterly forecast between the announcement and the chairman's press conference, generally about 2:00 p.m. ET. ---- If the Fed doesn't announce QE now then it would have to do so just before election? hmm
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Can we confirm this starts at 12:30 EDT and ends at when? I thought usually FOMC was released at 2:30 EST/EDT.
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I am unsure if I will place any trades. My general game plan is probably to get short after the FOMC release or prior at highs. My hypothesis is that we've already ran up and its likely to disappoint... However, if wrong then a large move up could develop... so staying flexible is key Another plan is try to get long off the first retest of 32-33...
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Neg, will the volume for Sept contract be much lower today? Why not roll tomorrow? It looks like Sept has more volume but my tradestation charts have rolled. What does it mean "for those who are sensible about it"?
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Captured the short but not as much as I wanted due to poor entry. Attempted to insta-reverse but stopped out for small loss. I've well exceeded my profit targets for today... dfd nice work if you can get it. As for where we go from here... uncertain but if the bigs were unhappy with the ruling then we could break 32 and move lower. This is looking a lot more likely to me.
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Looking for 35's.... 35's in play... big selling
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My read tells me higher probability of a strong sell off... not looking for that but a retest of 32-35 looks likely. Bigs selling at highs.... been selling all week Course could be wrong... everyone should do own analysis Neg... too many factors to share.. many proprietary.. but market should have been up a lot more... it just didn't perform.
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Hit profit target for day... was able to get in overnigh and take it off at the highs while the announcement was made. They really tried to run out the small speculators before driving it higher... ----- Bias is currently short at these highs...
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Limit buyer stepped in... exhausted sellers.... --- No luck... took small loss on last trade... looked like it was going to work... but heavy limit seller Euro court news... Euro ruling on plan.... higher risk likely kept buyers from bidding up market. Overlooked this.
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LQ providers pulling out... look for pop up here
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Reading selling at highs... potential for market to grind lower This 33 level (exact level not given out) is important.. if market drives lower then we could get a run... bias to look for longs here.. stop below 32 Sell bots may trigger... NQ has went below open... --- Bias is long
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Neg, yesterday was rough. The normal liquidity patterns seem to be changing to me... Its like there is less real liquidity when the market moves or else there is just too much. I think this may be the HFT bots.... keeping the market in a narrow range most time and then when they turn tail when the market starts to move.. So you get basically markets with very little opportunity and then these huge jumps that make it hard to control risk.. I've been day trading ES for 3 years (much of that via my signals) and this current environment feels new to me... although I'm not 100% sure that it is new or just because I'm trying to control my risk better. As a tape reader, I need the volatility to be at a certain level to read the tape... when its not then I rely more on pattern analysis.. That's not to say I'm not making profits... but ever since September started I've been having a more difficult time... I'm cautious of this month. I think we could have a jumpy market. I've been leaning short heavy and I'm trying to add more long trades because I make much more from the long side.... I think the market is trying to decide whether to dump several % or rally several %. It feels to me like the HFT's are squeezing out the mid frequency traders. (day traders making 3-30 trades per day). so you get micro traders and long term traders only.... The macro picture is growing weaker in my mind... but the bulls are encouraged that policy makers on every level are taking action... I'm guessing the recession was priced in much more then most of us realized.
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That was a difficult short to capture.... I tell you that. I didn't get it. Bias has shift to long for scalp to potential run back to prior range here...
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Short covering exhausted... test lows anticipated --- Range so far is very narrow... difficult day trade unless positioned well. New buying coming in at lows... may retest to open. uncertain.
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Studies shown about 1.5 pound per week loss about 4%-5% body fat % loss after about 4-6 weeks. So, I'm hoping for sometihng like that... but some people lost more.
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Order flow has turned very negative... look for restest of lows
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Unfortunately shorts covered at the 33.. buyer stepped up bid to 35. short run at 36... need to see break below 33 here ---- Notice that second run shaked out the weak shorts... without short covering.. market drops back to range... looking for a run down here --- Limit buyer at 35 taken out.. good signs. --- Buy program triggered at 11:30 AM. Often does... limit selle exhausted buy program. Not as confident now... though uncertainty high
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Notice techs are weak today with warning and worries about Microsoft Windows 8... while banks are strong due to europe news...Hedge funds buying banks short tech. This is giving SP500 a relative strength over the NASDAQ. Looking for strength in S&P 500 to resolve but if wrong will take a loss....
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Buy programs kicking in at 33.. expect them to be taken out soon but could be wrong. No bid above 35... have to remain open though to a continuation
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Limit sellers off the 35.50.... look for retest of near open but could be wrong.. FX - fundamentals.. calendars