Predictor

First, take my advise for what you will but I'm as someone who trained in the simulator extensively and went live and have did well (as well or better then I did in the simulator) also trading the eminis. Generally speaking if you're getting different results then it is likely because you've changed some parameters (or the market has changed -- which it does all the time). As an example, if you set soft stops on simulator then you may be missing micro excursions that are taking you out in the real money. Most people become more risk averse when moving to live trading which can make it more difficult to capitalize on opportunity. Also, if on the simulator you trade several contracts but only trade 1 live then another tendency is to adjust the targets to try to make more money -- which doesn't always work. The stuff about blowing out accounts is absolute nonsense and the way that losers talk. It can be more difficult to obtain the results from highly discretionary trading when going live. You may benefit from a more systematic/mixed approach during transition phase. One technique I found that worked well was to trade both sim and live at the same time. This way I can evaluate how I feel about types of trades. What I advise instead of switching back and forth is to start trading live and sim at the same time... this will take some of the pressure off... get into the flow on the sim and then just transition to the live for the best trades.. In general, you should keep everything exactly the same in your sim training as it will be in your live trading.

A high risk short means that it probably will work but it has the potential of being >stopped out quickly? At no point in my prior reply did I use the word quickly. Where in the hell did you get that? If it has a chance of being stopped out quickly, it seems to me that the trade could quickly end in a loss. So, if it quickly ends in a loss, how is it a trade that will probably work? Is it that the market is wrong for stopping you out because it should have worked? Look, I think it is pretty simple.. a higher risk trade is one that either A. requires a larger stop loss or B. has a higher probability that the stop will be hit. I never said anything about how quickly or slowly that you are stopped out and even if I had it doesn't change the probability! Do you think it matters if someone flips a coin fast or slow? As for your whether the market is wrong or right.. I never said anything about that either! That sounds like a personal issue you have. Not trying to beat you up and your statements are of no interest to me and I do understand your need to convey that you are making money. I don't need to convey anything. But when I hear people telling me about why the trades I called out couldn't make money... etc when I have statements to back them up then it yeah it kinda riles me.. But I don't care what you believe.. if you want to believe nobody can make money trading futures.. fine. If you want to believe I'm making up calls.. fine. It is not worth my time to respond to these baseless attacks especially when the attackers don't even read what I write. The End. Enough!

TradeRunner... so let me get this straight.. I don't have any complaints on my products so that's somehow questionable? I got a better idea.. why don't some of you who want to keep making false claims put up some money and I'll produce my real money statements and make you look like the fools that you are. I'm not responding to any more of this trolling. DFD

MightyMouse >>I too have been puzzled by what he meant by trade calls since his "calls" on that >>thread seemed to be win/win calls, meaning If I am wrong I was right and if I am right >>I am right. Patently false... There are many days where I state I hit my max loss limit. If you had actually read what I posted you'd know this. It is all in that thread. (edit) >>So "Taking a high risk short" means taking a short but I know it probably won't work. >>Of course, we don't know what was made or lost. So, it's not about the call, it's about >>being right. I'm providing REAL-TIME ANALYSIS. A high risk short does not mean taking a short that probably won't work. A high risk trade means taking a trade that probably will work or that offers some edge but that requires a larger stop or higher risk of being stopped out. Most trades are going to be risky to some degree.. many will be high risk. >>I can assure anyone that taking the number of trade calls that appear to be taken will >>lead to lots and lots of losses with the current level of volume and volatility in ES, you >>have just a tiny chance of squeezing out money from ES when you make all those >>trades. Well that's good to have your assurances over my monthly statements. What are you willing to put up (in risk) for assurances? I have statements for everyday that I made those calls. It is no wonder there are so many failed traders. I provide real-time calls that are spot on for free nonetheless, a service that most would charge $$$'s for, and nobody likes it. I guess I could post cherry picked trades from the past or complain like everyone else why you can't make money in this market.. Now I remember, this type of negative feedback that I'm getting now is one of the main reasons that I started charging for my materials. Because this has happened before... I'd share my insights for free, stuff that I'd normally charge for, and I might make some minimal request for credit such as a link to my blog. I'd get all kinds of complaints from the free loaders. Yet, no complaints from the people who buy my stuff! And they actually show some initative. and if you want to know a truth that's just if not more motivating then the money.

TradeRunner Now you've crossed the line into trolling. This will be my last response to you, and I hope it will be sufficient. It is clearly off topic to the thread subject matter. The trading system that I'm selling is based on similar logic to the one that I rented at C2. At C2 that logic combined with my discretion returned 55% last year and my subscribers who took those signals made thousands of dollars (as verified live trades as recorded on c2). Since closing my C2 system, I've taken nearly every trade with adjustments using discretion and have had very good live results too. Of course, again I like to make adjustments but the backtests have also been strong. >>Why are you selling trading systems? If they worked then why not trade them yourself >>and cut out the hassle of having customers. TradeRunner, this is my entire point.. you don't show a flexibility in thinking nor strong reasoning skills. First, you have this idea that something works or doesn't work. Most things can work to some degree or another and not absolutely. First, yes I do trade that system, with my own adjustments, (it is actually a class of systems, I trade the variation that suites me) and have good results with it. Let me help you... The system trades one of the most liquid contracts in the world. I am not at all concerned that sharing it with a few small traders will hurt my edge. In fact, my main motivation for offering it was because it has been doing well, and I wanted to add more contracts to it. I'm a small trader and having extra revenue streams can be very worthwhile. Even so, I've made more money from my recent trading then I've ever made from my blog and other products. There are a lot of reasons traders would sell working systems. For example, they may have allocated the maximum amount of capital they desire to a given system.. if the system has more capacity then there is no cost in selling it. Again in my case, I am still looking at increasing capacity but am also looking to diversify. As for the system, there is no way that I nor anyone else can know that any system will continue to work in the future. I believe that, in general, people get rich by offering tremendous value to OTHERS. My goal, in all of my products, is to offer that tremendous value. TradeRunner.. now you are on ignore.

TradeRunner Why because you say so? Is that your best logic?

TradeRunner >>Not all vendors are equal. You are absolutely wrong on your conclusions but absolutely right about the above. I've made live calls here, and I know (from my trading record) that I haven't had a losing day in over 10 days. The fact that nobody payed attention is not my problem. It doesn't bother me that you have something against me. What bothers me is your (and others) poor logic and reasoning skills... Try harder. Okay. No? Okay, let me help you. >>Entrepreneur first trader last (and just an interest in trading!). This bordering on trolling. I don't even know how to respond to that. But, I think my trading ability is represented in my live calls. >>The main reason your are here is to drive people to your new blog so that you can >>sell to them. You use language in your posts to convince potential customers that >>you are the real deal, not to make them more interesting. It is true that I want to be credited, that is for people who read my articles, to be able to find where they can read more about my ideas if they are interested. But, if you are suggesting that I only post here to drive traffic to my site then that is patently false. If you look at my live calls, you won't see a tagline to my website in them. Wouldn't I put a tagline to my website if I were only interested in driving people to my website? As I said, my live calls are mostly shared to help my performance. I thought that was the purpose of that thread.. for traders to share stuff in real-time about the market.

Andi: Thanks for your take. I agree that using stops are risky. But I also feel that not using stops can be risky too. I really don't like your martingale system. Markets are non normally distributed and have fat tails. If you're not dealing with the proper type of time series process then adding to size to that extent could be disastrous. You make the point that it only takes a small move when you get to full size to get profitable but you also miss the point that only a small move against you will result in a much larger loss. You didn't discuss your sharpe ratio or max dd or calmar or any other stats. It doesn't allow me to put the 17% in context. Also let me say.. i wasn't just ripping you for denigrating your readers but bringing attention to a pattern-- a confidence trick pattern -- that is used over and over.... The pattern is to first call others names or try to make them look stupid then to offer your "marvelous insights"... Take a look at Steve here to understand how it works but for sure he's not the ONLY one and I'm not singling him out either. Its just a pattern. Steve: What are you talking about? You don't make real time calls and yet you complain because my real-time calls aren't good enough. If anyone was watching the market when I made the calls they would have seen I got them out and in right at the tops and bottoms. I don't always/usually posts my exits in advance because I have real money on the line. I'll let you know that after I'm out.. thank you. As said, my real-time calls are not for people to be able to mimic me. They are for my benefit first. As for C2, I said in the "in the past". I hid my C2 records when I went live because I can make a lot more trading then I was renting out my systems. My historical records still exist but are hidden.. no reason to allow others to data mine my trades. As for my real-time records, they exist too and no I'm not going to share them. Also, what you said about commercials vs institutions was completely asinine... to me. I didn't call you out for it. Also in regards to your "ghosting orders" comment... I wasn't even talking about the order book. It was completely off base and wrong on at least 2 levels. Sorry, it is not my job to educate you. For the record, I'm placing you back on ignore. This time its not because you're just insulting me but because I've monitored your posts and I feel that you don't offer very much value.

TradeRunner, There are some differences in what I've did and that differentiate me from Steve and other vendors here and elsewhere. I wasn't just referring to Steve, either. First, I made real-time calls. I've been one of the few who did that. I also tracked/had an open book on my calls for about 2 years. Again, not something that you'll find other vendors doing. These were audited by the C2 third-party. I'm really surprised that more people didn't take notice. I have, at times, become frustrated with vendors who claim to offer transparency or make big claims but fail to do so. I can guarantee the real-time analysis I've provided here is superior to most trading rooms costing $100's of dollars. I've provided it here for free.. for a few reasons actually. The main reason is that the administrators here have been nice to me but also I feel that it can enhance my performance. But no my posts aren't designed to impress new traders whatsoever. That's not to say they aren't designed to attract a certain audience.. But primarily.. my posts are designed to enhance my own performance. I'm trading real money on all of those calls, btw... For those who take notice, my calls have been spot on, and again I know because I'm trading real money. (Although, I make no claims that one could duplicate it with my calls. They are always going to be delayed as my real money is more important then the call.) To summarize, I'd like to highlight the differences between myself and other vendors: 1. I never denigrate other traders or try to boast myself up by calling other traders retailers, muppets, etc... i.e play the confidence game. This is the pattern I noticed and called to attention. It is the pattern of calling others names or trying to make others feel stupid so that they need your products or in some cases I think it is a con game the trader pulls over his own eyes. There is a difference in that and reveling in ones ability.. which I sometimes do when I've earned it. That's the key.. when I've earned it. 2. I've a history of making real time calls. Both calls that were published and made here in real-time. 3. I am much better at explaining myself then some other vendors. I feel it is because I actually have something to say. I explain what I do or make it clear that I don't want to reveal certain information. I feel that overall my communications is much more transparent and readable. 4. I actually trade. Again, something many vendors don't do. As for my insights into the market, it is certainly a creative interpretation but one that helps me. As for the author of that blog, he boasted about his 17% return without even sharing any risk/adjusted performance metrics. Yes, he came off as crass and lacking knowledge. One other thing but also in terms of the articles here.. it is clear that some vendors just want to post any old useless fluff article to get there name up whereas I've always felt that I had something worthwhile to share my articles. You want to know the differences.. there you have it!

Take a look at NADEX... Binaries are unique trading product. I think they are best for taking 1 trade a day with.. not trading in/out.

ValueTrader.. I've warned about the risks of stops for a long time. I've found that it has taken me some time and work to better my understanding. First, we have to identify the context of the trade. Is it a system trade? Is it a discretionary trade? Is it a day trade? What is the leverage used? What are the exit parameters? Does the margin exist to hold over night? But, let's address the issue for discretionary day traders. For discretionary day traders, I believe stops are very worthwhile and always keep in place a stop when entering any trade. However, what I really focus on is my max risk per day. I don't care if I get stopped out a lot of times or just a few times. I want to know at the end of the day that I'm not going to be down more then $X. When one has an advantage, the cost to capitalize on that advantage is the risk of being wrong. If you don't apply stops then what will tend to happen is the account equity curve will mimic the instrument equity curve. This makes sense. And it is true that most traders fail to outperform the market. It also is easy to see that the type of leverage most day traders use won't be sufficient for taking on the market risk. But, I still believe the key for the day trader is to avoid taking stop losses. Even very tangible edges can easily turn into break even trades when stop losses occur. What I do is I manage my trades to minimize taking stop losses using my skill, specialized software (more to come in future), and tape reading ability. I also think it is important to turn trading into a discrete game for the discretionary trader.. another article forth coming. Moving beyond discretionary day trading... we have other ways of looking at things. For example, one can look at the account as the total risk for a strategy and the annualized returns as a payoff. Risking a 10k account to build it to 500k in a few years WITHOUT using stops makes a certain amount of sense. Stops tend to impart a false sense of security. I mean that if you look at a strategy with a 50% DD but that uses a $200 stop loss. It is tempting to try it because there is a notion that you'll get out before the 50% DD. If the strategy had a 30% DD without stops then the same person might not trade it because they only in their mind had to accept the $200 stop loss.. Now.. moving beyond the day time frame, a good trader could probably avoid 70% of stop losses if they could hold.. strategic averaging down etc could probably reduce that to 90%. They have a saying " a bull market lifts all boats". It wont lift your boat if you are stopped out. It is much harder to justify stop losses for the swing trader. Strategically bounding price sounds like it could be a rather effective strategy. A big mistake comes from comparing trading system draw downs to open equity draw downs, imo. I don't think they are comparable. If a trading system loses money, its gone forever. If you hold good companies or indexes then there is a good chance the holder will at least break even. What does this mean? This means that if you can develop a sound method that doesn't use stop losses then while you may not be able to make a lot more profits then you can reduce your risk of losing the entire account. Some caveats.... first general price series are not normally distributed so there is no rule for the market to come back... in general increasing the risk and holding period will result in the equity curve swinging more and more wildly. I think there must be something better then the stop out. I have entertained converting/rolling the futures positions into limited loss positions at the end of the day or hedging. .. For example a spread/option would give one the time for the market to come back while limiting the max loss. If you take small stop losses.. you must be trading a volatile instrument because you'll need catch big winners.. a reduction in volatility will prove very damaging. see my 2 dark swans of stops For the day trader, again I don't think averaging down works. I tend to take size on/off very quickly but I will strategically add to positions underwater. It is very rare. The reason is that basically my leverage ratio is not suitable for that style of trading. To be honest, averaging up doesn't work too well for the futures day trader either.. Having said all of this, if you have an edge then and if we accept the market rewards risk in good proportion to that taken then maybe that can make one more comfortable in using stops... again I always use them. ... Let me say I'm not too keen on the "s-curve" the author talks about which is a martingale variation. The problem is that you are initially right capture 10 points = $500 but at the end of the curve he's at 31 total or $1550 per point.. The purpose of this sort of approach is to gain better pricing over time and most of all to never put the account of risk. PS: The author of that blog comes off as trying to appear more sophisticated then he is. He's trading a single way only whereas really great traders have mastered far more. I notice a lot of vendors will try to use "confidence" words to try to make them look better.. the most common is calling other traders names like retail traders, Muppet, etc or trying to appear smarter, more sophisticated,etc... what these folks fail to understand is that there are a lot of ways to make money in the market and most don't require being a genius.

Oh mi oh my.... doubly nice... I'm out for late day... not pushing it

Good short here off the 55

Steve... it takes many opinions to make a market. I don't know what you see but its for sure not what I see. lol... I never seen ghost orders, that's for sure.

Okay.. I'm DFD but I predict we close at 47.25 4 PM Any other takers! This is just a game, of course.

Slick... good point. I was a split decision from reversing and going short. There are many factor I weigh on any trade... if I had came in a few moments later then I might have went short with a stop above 50. Reversing and shorting wouldn't have been a bad decision, even. With this trade... I seen some evidence it could work and also I knew that a report was coming out at 10:00. Given the overall market conditions, I knew the shorts would be jittery and a retest was still likely... I think the report played a factor in my mind because I knew if the market turned on the report that we could see a good move but if it went against me, I'd just take my stop loss.

Nice work.... if you can get it. DFD Slick? Big/long term/institutional sellers above 50... when I enter a trade.. I always want to know where it might fail. Buying too close to where long term traders stake short positions carries higher risk.

Short market here.... bias is short

Bad pull on my part.. should have just reduced ---- Some potential shorts setup in the 50-53 range... I'm likely DFD

Retest of 50 and 53 is likely in play now --- Limit seller off 65.50 should be short term traders only.. anticipate it to lift but if it doesnt then we could retest lower --- New limit seller off the 48.50... may be serious seller... will likely reduce uncertain --- New limit buyer off 46.75... stepped up.... ---- I'm out.... not liking it

Buyers coming in at 44....

Weighing whether 52 could be in play....report release at 10 may decide the fate of this trade

Long off the open here.... a bit concerned about the 50 overhead though

I've realized that losing weight and day trading can both difficult be difficult for at least one similar reason. In theory, losing weight should be very easy: just create a slight calorie deficit and you'll burn more then you eat. The reduction can even be minor. Yet, in reality obesity is a growing epidemic and many otherwise strong willed people aren't able to achieve the body they desire. My first breakthrough came when I realized that we don't really know for sure on any day if we are running a calorie surplus or deficit. We don't know exactly. There isn't a gauge that we can glance at that will tell us everyday whether we are "gaining weight" or "losing weight". There is a high degree of uncertainty. It is easy to think that eating that scoop of ice cream for dessert won't put me over -- especially if I worked out or plan too. Trading also involves a high degree of uncertainty especially for discretionary traders but even for system traders. One really never knows if they have an edge until after the fact. I recognized early on that what most traders attributed to discipline problems were really problems in decision making under stress and uncertainty. The second problem with eating is that if we're like most people, we're bombarded with constant choices regarding food which means lot of chances for mistakes. Lunch appointments can happen at a moments notice and social etiquette requires attending and eating. What for breakfast? What for lunch? What for a snack? It is easy to be disciplined the entire day and then give into a craving which can set everything back. High frequency day traders are faced with a similar situation: a small edge that must be acquired by making frequent decisions under stress. The body is believed to desire homeostasis and therefore is always trying to correct any "mistakes" (calorie reductions) the dieter makes. While the market doesn't have a profit goal for the trader, there is a cost in commission and spread that must be payed to trade and that grows with frequent trading. Are there ways to lose fat? As a usually overweight individual, I have found and believe there to be some fairly solid ways to lose fat. The first is to exercise intensely for 2-3 hours per day every single day. This creates a situation where one simply burns too many calories to overeat. Unfortunately, it also creates the habit of eating large meals which is why many athletes become obese. The second is to measure and control strictly the calorie intake. For most, this means an expensive meal plan and limited choices for eating. This makes such a plan difficult to maintain and likely not appealing over the long term. The third way is a new approach that I'm trying called intermittent fasting. Fasting is believed to have many health benefits. There are many variations but the one I am following for simplicity is 24 hours eating with no restrictions and 24 hours dieting with little to no food intake. It is easy to see that one this will reduce the calorie intake by about half -- as most people aren't able to overeat that much on the food days. I've been on this diet for a few weeks and am achieving results. It works because one only has to make one decision: don't eat for the day. While not eating for 24 hours sounds difficult, the will power and conscious effort required is greatly reduced as one isn't having to make constant decisions. It is a single decision. The ramifications for day trading are obvious. I have found that I nearly always have performed better in the early morning with my performance decreasing over the day. The implication is that highly discretionary day traders will likely be best served by limiting the number of trades per day and limiting most of their most intense decision making to brief periods when the opportunity is greatest. It will likely also pay to limit the scope of the low pay off decisions that one has to make, such as choosing a specific stop level versus a general stop out level. Likewise, day trading at higher frequencies will likely benefit from greater automation and systematization. The realizations will certainly guide how I structure my future trading and help to explain important factors for success. --- http://themarketpredictor.com

N i c e w o r k.. if you can get it DFD