Predictor

kuokam.. As I said previously originally they did not show the loss limits but instead just showed the ACCOUNT SIZES. In reality, you trade futures on leverage and they would cut you at a small loss which makes the account size irrelevant. What matters is the loss limit because it tells you what the payoff is if you pass the requirements. TST program is setup where the trader pays a fee to have a chance to get backed. It is critical to understand how much the pay off is in relation to how much the fee is in order to understand whether the deal makes sense or not. I think the most honest approach would be to just leave the account size off completely or calculate it based on the risk allocation and the margin for max contracts permitted. If you can't see how showing a trader that they are "funded with 35k" but in reality will be cut (sent back to sim) if they lose $1000 is dishonest then I'm not sure how I can make it any more clear. It'd be like me saying: Pay me $1,000 for a chance to trade my MILLION DOLLAR TRADING account. Only catch is that if you lose $1500 then I'm cutting you. You see how ridiculous that is? Do you also see how most people see the million dollars and wouldn't read the fine print? Do you by chance work for TST? Because this is pretty basic stuff that I'm sure most readers will understand. Apparently even TST realized it wasn't right because they changed the page to now show the loss limits -- which I fully agree with.

I trade often using discretion using a style I call "point to point" which means I'll trade from any point to any point in the market without regard to where I'm at in the distribution. Some might like to think of this as "center out" trading in volume profile terms. I like to read the order flow in the first few moments of the day actually and can trades within minutes of the open. I've found that often systematic strategies are often easier for traders to implement. It is possible to get a "rough" idea where the high and the low in the futures indexes will occur up to a day in advance. The typical floor trading pivots aren't at all accurate. But, it is possible to generate some reasonably accurate projections using machine learning techniques. I have developed such projections that are an order of magnitude more accurate then typical floor trading pivots. The market is prone to reverse near these projections especially on a "first touch" basis -- when there are more limit orders resting. Thus, one reasonable strategy is to use such projections or create a band near the extremes of the market where one anticipates it to reverse and to watch for both order book and order flow reversals within this "band" in order to take counter trend trades. This is one strategy that I'm going to be experimenting with personally and will also be researching with quantitative partner/developer. If we can develop it into something that is consistent and profitable enough I may develop it into a fully programmed strategy. I will be sharing these projected high/low levels in the ES thread for the next several days. We currently do not offer these and the first version of our software won't support them. But, I can the value in having them transmitted directly into the software and its something we'll be considering...

Just ignore the trolls... These are the levels I mentioned. These were generated after the close yesterday. H2: 1420 H1: 1416 L: 1410 One systematic strategy I feel could work well is to watch for OF reversals near the LOW and HIGH projections, say within +- 5 points of the L and H2. It is more difficult to get the high in advance.. so I have 2 projections for it. Right now the market is at 1411.25. Today you'd look for a reversal pattern from about 1411-1404ish to get long. Today we also have payrolls at 8:30 AM. I believe the ADP report was negative.. So this could turn into a trending action. My rough game plan for today (if I trade) will be to get long an OF reversal in the 1404-1412 range OR to wait for large movement to the upside and try to buy any retracement on a good report. A bad report that breaks the market down below 1404 might be worth a short.

kuokam, They've actually changed this page from how it was originally listed. I guess they realized the original was deceptive. But, if you look you'll see 35k and then you'll see they added a new column "max drawdown". This didn't exist in a previous version: I applaud them for adding it. They've also increased this to 3x the daily loss limit from where it was originally 2x. I suggested that a minimum 4x to 6x loss limit would make more sense. Perhaps they realized how ridiculous it looked: Live Trading Room | Trading Program | Topstep Funded Trader So, I stand somewhat corrected. It is not quite as deceptive. Still, the loss limits are very conservative -- esp for the desired returns that traders would want to make based on their combine performance. Also, I'm not sure how the come up with the account size values. You have a max of 3 contracts which is 15k overnight margin and then the $1500 loss limit implies an account size worth about 17k -- not 35k. If you limit yourself to intraday trading then the account size would be closer to 3k +1500 or about 5k. I know some will say it is based on 2% loss limit per day or nonsense but that doesn't mean much when your total loss limit is only 4%.

rtg: Don't let steve get you down. He's an unhappy vendor. It can be anything you want. I usually don't point out my wins but steve riled me up too. Yesterday, I experience huge losses so trust me its not an ego fest, with me. I actually share here because I feel it improves my read. I also have shared my software here but I was here before that. Why don't you start sharing your analysis/read/thoughts here? That's the best way. I feel it is best for real-time analysis... i.e I'm seeing this develop. I say for everyone sharing here.. Steve included, the best benefit will be for us to all share what we are seeing in real-time and our analysis of current conditions or pre-planned trades. Obviously most of us won't share everything but that's what would make this most valuable. This is a similar idea Dr. Steenbarger had actually in providing real-time analysis.. I thought it was a good one. If I get 2 requests then I'll even share/post up the levels for free a day in advance for 1 whole week.. I don't use these always in my work so it takes a bit of effort for me to actually process them-- they are generated by algorithmic. We can see if these levels are worthwhile. I'm not offering these on any subscription basis at this time, either. I will start.. The YM and NQ diverged widely yesterday. There must be a reason for that divergence and it may be useful in pinpointing current market themes. What is everyone opinion for that divergence?

Everyone should know that TST makes misleading impressions on their website about the account sizes funded at. For example, you're not "really" given a 35k account or any reasonable % therefore but I think its like 2x your max daily loss limit. So for the lowest tier its $1,000 loss limit. That's an extremely tight loss limit for futures... Meanwhile they take 1/2 your profits for giving you 1k. However in the try out you had to make 2k in profits. So to get funded at 1k loss limit you have to risk $175: so you're actually getting about $800 of risk if you pass the stringent requirement. And you're giving up what 40%-50% of your profits each month for this $800 "backing" -- which if you do well enough to pass means you're making 2k and giving up 1/2. This isn't enough capital to make worthwhile profits, esp after splits. The business appears to be geared to generate an income from combine fees rather then from actual trading profits. Based on the sum total evidence, I would not recommend this program for anyone unless they were already consistently able to meet the objective. I can tell you as a futures trader, a tiny futures trader, I already loss and made back many multiples of times the risk limits given to these trades. These tight risk limits will make it extremely difficult to consistently meet such high expectations. That's not to say I haven't entertained it, myself. Also any such students would like benefit from my upcoming software. But reality its a very tough hurdle they've put up.. and until they release books of top traders then I'm not inclined to believe they're making any money. Really instead of promoting account sizes that have nothing to do with when the trader is cut then they should just post the max loss limits. I think this is my biggest problem with them. If they believe a 1k loss limit/cut limit back to sim makes sense then they should just post it. There is no reason to put 35k. Just put up what you actually offer... my 2cents

I wanted to get feedback from anyone actively trading or especially day trading these products. I've never really looked at the bonds. But, I've heard they can be good day trading instruments. How do they compare in terms of margin, risk, movement to the ES? To CL?

That was a great call I made for those paying attention.. market dipped right down from about 11 (from when I first observed the action) to about 8 and bounced right back. I took a small reversal off the 8 instead of going with the initial selling.. although it was a decent run. I had an option to go with the selling programs or to wait for a new imbalance to develop. I know at all price levels where the market is likely to go -- I don't need to go way outside the market to extremes (although can see the value in that). I also have the most accurate "extreme" levels that I know of anyone to develop. I don't always use them but I'm thinking of a systematic application which could work well with the order flow. I developed and tested the accuracy of the levels against all the common floor trader pivots. None of the popular pivots offered any real edge in determining where the market would reverse. I later challenged a real quant to develop more accurate projections and he was not able too. I also have predicted (without any systems) the market to the tick a day in advance. I tested myself against the levels, and found I could not consistently beat them. I will add it is not even difficult to develop such levels but it requires actually doing some work. If you wonder why I don't use them in my work: that's a good question. But, even though they are more accurate then any published levels. They still aren't all that accurate. Like most methods based on variants of linear regression: they tend to overshoot at turning points. Its the catch-22: you're only guaranteed to get filled on the losers. I prefer to trade more free flow. I'll trade from the middle out, as well. I actually find some of my best trades can come form there. I will enter trades in the first few minutes of the day too. Part of tape reading is developing a feel for the markets, I'll go short/reverse long/etc. I think its important to be able to do that. Systematic trading is easier for most traders to be able to execute with real money. This is why I'm thinking of developing such a method. Anyway, the goal is to see whether the market is actually doing what I anticipate: if it is then it probably means I'm right -- if its not then there may be factors outside my understanding driving the market. I can play any number of games. One game I play is "making the market" where I only offer fair prices. I find this works well in many markets. If I try to milk the market even by 1 tick then often it means a loss for me.. If I think the market can truly to go X then I'll out before X because I want to resell to someone else. At other times, I'll play other games. When I'm trading at my best, I look at my trades as sequences. No individual trade may make sense but the sequence as a whole will end up making me a profit.

Some larger sell orders going off at current highs.. not inclined to go short but a retest of 8s seems possible.

I was going to post the data from Friday. Unfortunately, the NinjaTrader replay data had some hiccups with the L2 data and it was causing some problems with our program. The NinjaTrader support has been extremely helpful with every issue we've had. So, what we've did is to add a "fix" which makes our program more resilient when running on replay data. So, I'll try to go back and make that recording now. I've also received update from my programmer/quantitative developer that progress is being made with MultiCharts. As I see it, there are really 2 kinds of trading: turn-based and real-time -- just like with video games. As a trader who has had good results using both styles of trading: I believe that many traders don't understand that specialized techniques are required to be successful with real-time trading. Of course, even real-time trading requires some degree of anticipation. It took me about a year before I finally "got" real-time trading even though prior I was very good at turn-based trading. I had to develop new specialized skills. For me, I always felt somewhat divided when I would watch a chart and then go to place an order. It was like "2 minds" and there wasn't a flow. However, when I embraced tape reading then it felt more natural like there was only one mind. I do use charts but I use them in highly specialized ways or just for basic reference. As a tape reader, I know or should know where the price is -- I don't need to look at a chart of my market to tell me. I feel this "flow" is one of the greatest benefits for the tape reader. As a tape reader, I see the market differently from chart traders. I know a few major references but I'm perceiving the market significantly differently then the chart trader. Sometimes I'll run a chart up but I don't study it.. I just use it for basic reference. I can see in the orderflow and book whether a level is attracting buying or selling. My principle is everything that I use has to prove itself. I rely on my tape read which I trust and then I have various systems that have proven themselves. I mean if you look at most indicators. They're just based on price or the indicators are hard to read. I know I couldn't read most chart indicators in real-time anyway! This is why I put a lot of thought and effort into making our program make it easier for traders to process data in real-time. You know when I look at a method that traders claim is predictive or whatever. The first thing I will do is look at a chart: if it doesn't pretty much scream buy/sell at the tops or bottoms then I'm not interested. Having said all that, some of my programmed systems are more advanced but at the end of the day they deliver me a crisp and clear buy or sell signal.

Yes, an OF reversal is an order flow reversal. I use my specialized software AlphaReveal to see these develop in real-time. Typically, what I'm looking for is an order book imbalance followed by a change in the OF. I know where these are likely to develop/can anticipate in advance. The best entries are when both the OF and OB is working in ones favor. See my My Favorite Tape Reading thread for more.

Bias is to the upside today but OF is negative.. this means staking out a lower level and watching for an OF reversal. Likely last update for today (busy)... lot of uncertainty in markets

SIUYA, Your sentiment is surely common among traders, and based on my studies I believe it to be wrong. An investor using sound practices (diversification, not over leveraged) who has a reasonably long time horizon (longer then 10 years) has if you look at the history of the stock market a good chance of breaking even. This is why you can't compare trading results to investing results if those trading methods involve taking realized losses. The cost for having a higher probability of breaking even, for the investor, is that his/her money is tied up for longer periods of time and he can't leverage as much because there is greater uncertainty. You see what we're talking about is not a winning game... we're talking about how do we avoid losing anything? How can we play a game where we always break even or win.. or come as close to that as possible in market terms? The trading game is structured to try to get the trader to play a game where he wins or loses. The ability to break even at a high probability is IMO the holy grail because then just the minimum bit of skill, which most traders have, leads to huge profits. Great example is right now the ES is at 1405. I figure a good deal of the shorts from yesterday could cover right now at a better price then they did yesterday. I've tried a technique in the past where I attempt to close out profits from scalping as fast as possible while holding onto my losers. Typically, these losers will mean revert which will turn them from losers into break even or even winning trades. I combine these with the profits from my scalping. The problem with this method is that its not possible to "CAP" the losers and you need the ability to clone the instrument, if possible. I'm thinking of a method that involves either hedging the futures contracts with options at the end of day or even perhaps intra-day. My hunch is that such hedging strategies are required to hit the "holy grail" type returns. Let's consider a scenario.. a trader is down $500. He can close out the position with the losing herd when there is peak demand (i.e highest prices against him) or he can leave the position open -- which can lead to a larger loss. Leaving the position open works most of the time but eventually always leads to taking a catastrophic career ending loss. The preferable scenario in most cases would be to roll this into a risk limited position. To be able to say, cap my risk at $750 and let me wait until tomorrow to see if things have improved. I'd be willing to pay a slight premium for such ability.

It is a big mistake to compare trading to investing because that most traders take realized losses. This has tremendous implications. If one is investing over a long period of time (10-15 years), using best-practices, then the reality is that they have a pretty good chance of breaking even. Meanwhile,a trader who is trading actively and taking stop losses has a very good chance of losing everything. This is why I feel it doesn't make a lot of sense to compare trading returns to investing returns. Once a trader takes a realizes loss then a few things happen. First, they must be right or have a predictive advantage to avoid losing everything. Second, they must keep this advantage. What happens then, especially for systematic traders, is they run through many systems that lose money to try to find a few that make money to cover the losers. Yet, there is no guarantee that one will pick the winners. The question is and the holy grail would be, is there an efficient method that we can use to take advantage of a predictive edge while still limiting our risk ?

I thought I'd share my update. I've lost about 30 pounds since starting the IF protocol. I'm still not to my first target. But, I can say this is probably the best protocol that I've ever personally seen. From having going to the gym for years (over the years), and training at various intensity levels I can say 2 things: going to the gym for serious fat loss is a waste of time -- without the proper diet in place and #2 everyone should go to the gym to improve their health. I know it sounds like a contradiction -- but its the truth. Listen everything you've ever read about fat loss is a total scam. Cardio training for fat loss is a real waste of time compared to the results that one can get from a little bit of fasting. I can burn more calories sleeping at night then someone at the gym training hard for 2 hours. However, weight training is extremely valuable and those results can't be obtained from diet alone. The only type of results that I've seen comparable to IF would be when I wrestled in high school. I trained 2-3 hours each day and then 2-3 hours on the weekend. If you want to achieve "extreme" or "significant" fat loss: there are only 2 options I've seen work: 1. Extreme athletic training, i.e 2 hours per day 5 days per week. Works but most can't do it. Extremely hard on body and has significant risk. 2. Intermittent Fasting preferably with strength training. Works. What doesn't work well enough to justify it is going to the gym 2x-3x per week and doing 30 minutes of cardio or exercise. You might lose a little but you won't achieve extreme fat loss unless the program is an extreme fitness style program. I should also add during my non fasting periods, I've eaten normally or even worse -- just to test it. One week I had a milkshake almost every other day, I ate like 4 plates of spaghetti, and didn't do any exercise: I lost about 2 pounds that week. Of course, that doesn't mean that one can't overdo it. I've hit a few weeks where I leveled off. During these times, I just make minor adjustments: extend the fast, eat a little healthier, or increase my weight training or add some low intensity cardio.

Based my experience, the algorithmic trading is making an impact for some traders/styles. I've been very successful at trading compared to common measures. Some people wrongly believed that "causing problems" means "not profitable". One common theme I see though is that the algorithmic trading is pushing those who wish to make money trading into higher risk spaces/trades. Basically, this means that traders are forced to use larger stop losses or hold trades for longer periods of time. Some of the tendencies I've observed in terms of futures: * Faster intraday movement * Fewer pull backs.. i.e larger moves * Sharper/faster reversals. * Gaming of open/close prices (or more "efficient" markets). Some of my systems relying on open/close prices no longer work as well but adaptations that don't rely on open/close still work. I view this as a function of an increasingly efficient market. Basically inefficiencies that might have existed for a few days are resolving intraday now. * More herding behavior.. What I haven't seen to any tangible effect: * Spoofing/pulling orders. Most shown orders in the book seem legit. A small % may be pulled but the majority are there. ---- Based on what I've seen, I don't believe that futures HFT systems are "pulling limit orders" as might exist in say stocks. Instead, I suspect they are sending in large quantity of market orders in order to trigger stops or for a few ticks gains. This is not to say they always work. This would make sense as to why we have greater straight-line vertical movement... if the bots are buying at highs and selling at lows. Another tactic may be selling at lows then buying everything up.

johnw, I've used such indicators in the past, i.e cumulative delta. However, I primarily rely on my specialized tape reading software which allows me to see the order flow in real-time clearly. See my tape reading thread. However, today based on the overall market context and my knowledge of day structure, I was looking for an exhaustion in that order flow at places where the market historically is at a high probability to reverse. The difference in the current market compared to more normal markets is that it turns very quickly and doesn't pull back. This meant I didn't have a chance to take off my shorts or re-evaluate. At any rate, this sort of higher volatility is usually associated with markets that are selling off vs generally bullish. Its a function of large traders only willing to take positions far outside the current market due to high uncertainty. While I'm usually right about the markets direction -- when I get things wrong then I take a loss.

Anticipating retest of lows.. ---- Today good example of why I'm reluctant to short what look like good retracements... the last OF reversal powered through every previous level... today took larger loss. Today's pattern is similar to yesterdays where robots drove to new lows running stops then drove to new highs running the other side stops..

Interesting pattern... we'll see algorithms come in at highs and short.. if they aren't able to drive price a few ticks then they're forced to cover.. This just happened off the 1.50. I'm watching for an area to short.

One pattern that is typically rather bearish is when strong buying isn't able to drive price...detected that pattern today. Of course, my initial idea was correct but I played it a bit differently. I do see more one-sided drives in the markets these days.. this makes it harder for short term traders to take opposite sides or use retracements..

Reversed to short as 4.50 failed.... so far profitable.. had exceeded my profit target today early but didn't take all of them... will attempt to offer around 4.50.. ----- Long target just above the 1ish

Wondering if 4.50 will be good for much longer... not much room for long trades off 4.50

Market looks set to test higher... 4ish held --- Added to long... --- Strong buying here... boehner speaking --- That was short lived... another interpretation is mrkt is building value lower... --- Added long but will attempt to clear off this position... bias is shifting to short side --- Some buy programs going off here...

Have reversed to long.... --- Flat again.... short time before report Keeping an open mind still..

Buy side OF was somewhat aggressive when I came in this morning.. frothy... ---- I added (and have reduced) my short exposure... when the OF turns two-sided then often its a sign of topping/bottoming... the direction will follow.. we had some nice OF imbalances up in the upper 9's too --- Paying close attention to 5.50s... may go flat before next report. 5.50 is buy side mode