Eiger

Providing a set of guidelines for moderators will be very helpful, I think. Since there are no guidelines at the present, the clarity will be a net plus and is change in a positive direction. You might consider publishing a draft of the guidelines before they become final. Invite the forum users to review and comment on the proposed guidelines for a period of time before they take effect. There would be several benefits: It is certainly one way to keep the process democratic, which several folks have mentioned as highly desirable. It is also a way to generate other valuable ideas. People tend to respond productively when specifics are put before them for consideration. I think, too, that it is also a way to foster a level of consensus about moderators and moderation -- what it is and what it isn't -- across the TL community. People will have input, which makes them a part of the process and helps them to take 'ownership' of the results. Also, the more aware and more clear group members are about their norms and practicies, the more they tend to respect them. This is especially true for those that they help develop. I believe also, that this would be consistent with the spirit of TL and the goal of a user-oriented community with priority to user opinions that you are striving for. Eiger

I think it would be quite helpful to define the problem. I see many interesting and thoughtful solutions and debate about those proposals, but I have no idea what the issue is To me, it is hard to settle on a solution without really understanding where the system is breaking down or where we see it falling short. Can we clarify what the issue is first? Good, workable solutions are then likely to follow. Eiger

I resonate with Ron Paul and the Libertarian outlook. When I first read Ayan Rand a number of years ago, I didn't think I could continue to live and work in such a dysfunctional system. Virtually everything I saw smacked of statism and the mindless crushing of the individual. Her work had an enormous impact on me, as have the Austrian Ecomomic school of thought (Von Mises, Rothbard, Rockwell, et al). I did withdraw from being an employee of the system, as now I am simply a trader and a psychologist with a small private practice with as minimal a connection to the statist system as I can manage. I found that ranting about the obvious (and I was pretty loud) always fell on deaf ears. Paul's surprize that we failed to learn from Japan is really no surprize at all. We will nearly always opt for the instant gratification, even when it is against our best interests long-term. Our behavior is really no different than the addict's in this regard. Even though expensive, it felt "right" that we were doing something now with AIG despite knowing it runs counter to capitalism and will work against us in the end. It's the same thing we (i.e., our politicians) did in Afganistan and again in Iraq. Back then we wanted to do someing now, even though it made no long-term sense. Eiger

Thanks, James. Very useful. I am in Dalian, CN frequently and didn't even realize it had a commodites Ex.

Thanks for re-posting here where it is more appropriate (VSA does not use indicators) and others interested in your topic are more likely to find it. Just so you know, I deleted the post in the VSA forum. Eiger

The ES put in a "stepping stone" count on the 10-point figure chart. The stepping stone count is along the 780 line and tends to confirm the projection up to 890 taken along the 750 line. There is still resistance to overcome around 820-30. If it can clear that resistance, we can anticipate it running up to the FC projection.

You are doing something psychologists call deliberate practice - making a huge, very focused effort, day-after-day, and doing the things most people will not do. This level of "smart practice" leads to high levels of performance whether you are training to be an Olympic athlete, a surgeon, or a trader. Eiger

Different places and different traders. Some of it I make up for myself.

You are off to a good start. Four weeks isn't much time, so you can expect more work and effort ahead. A few things you can do that might be helpful. First, understand the difference between Tests and No Demands. Tests disconfirm the presence of supply; No Demand disconfirms the presence of demand. You seem to have them confused. Tests do not show no demand; they indicate a lack of supply. Try hard to see the bigger picture. The bar at 4 was less a 'break-out' than it was the presence of supply. This became evident at 7, and especially at 10 and the next bar when supply finally overcame demand and took the market down. Understanding the background will keep you from making poor trade selection as in 9. Staying too focused on the bars leaves you missing the forest for the trees and encourages trading random patterns. Strive to understand the background. Eiger

How far can the current rally go? I see the press calling it a new Bull Market, so I guess by that measure it could go to the moon I find a point & figure chart worthwhile when trying to estimate how far a rally could go. This comes straight from Wyckoff, though you don't see it discussed. Tom Williams refers to P&F charts in his book, but doesn't elaborate, except to say that they have many uses. I keep P&Fs of the S&Ps. Here is a 10-point FC of the ES (day-session only). The attached chart show a potential cause to the 860-890 area from the 750-line. Note the previous resistance at the 870 area. You can also see from this chart the resistance along the 810 area. Thus far, price has been holding gains here, so there may be more upside. Of course, no one kinows if price will make it to the 870 area. Eiger

Funny one . Amazing candor.

There was a good reason for that to happen where it did today. Part of the answer is about the Demand Line, but only a part. It has to do with what you are talking about. Eiger

You are absolutely right. I call this acceleration or ease of movement and it is a key aspect to consider. Others call it an impulse move. There are several things you can do with this that are not especially obvious unless you really study the price and volume action around these areas. I have posted about it before in this forum a while ago but no one ever picked up on it, and one person actually began an arguement, so I have just kept it quietly to myself and a dozen or so other traders I talk with. Good, Dan, that you picked up on this. Better that you figured it out yourself. Eiger

Jumping a Creek VSA style. See attached chart.

That's the correct definition. I think of them like a Key Reversal bar. They dip under the previos low(s) come back up and then close on or near their highs, usually well into if not above the previous bar. Keep in mind that they require strength in the background, otherwise they are ignored.

Good guitar is definately the best. Here's what gets my mojo moving at the beginning of the trading day .... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7yPRYL_Oq0

I think you will remember that one after today You had all the indications of strength on your charts: Market had pushed above yesterday's high and had retested Market was rotating around a line at A-B-C and pushed above it Higher high & higher lows on the 60-min When at the lows below C, no supply was drawn out (big clue) There was a nice 'story' in this segment of the market that you could piece together called bullish. That "UT" was just absorbing the remaining supply from the last wave down. If supply had regained control there (highly unlikely with all the bullishness you identified), the next bar would have been down. It dipped lower and sprang back up to close on it's highs (Hidden Test) and a lovely place to go long. Side note: UT should be upthrusting a clearly defined resistance area (old top). The bar you labled an UT doesn't really qualify as an UT - it is just a bar with some supply on it. You identified everything, Mantra. Really nice job! - The next step is to piece it together and see it as a whole - this is your background. Hope this is helpful, Eiger

Anirudhworld, H&Ss are not a part of VSA, nor are other chart patterns (flags, pennants, etc). VSA is about applying the tell-tale signs of supply and demand within the background context of the chart in your trading. Rather than post VSA-irrelevant charts, you are encouraged to read about VSA so you understand the basic ideas behind it. If you are then interested in learning VSA, you will find this forum to have a wealth of information and the traders here quite willing to help you out. A good place to start is here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f151/vsa-ebook-master-the-markets-3041.html This is a free download of the Master The Markets book, which explains the basics of VSA. Use the last link in the thread, as this is the current link for the ebook. Eiger

CSI Data has commodity data back into the 1950s. They are one of the most complete comodities data source. Data is clean as well. They are currently discounting thier data products. (I have no financial interest in the company). http://www.csidata.com

Politics upset you, eh? This has been going on since forever, and is unlikely to change. I think, though, it may be wider than just the bonuses at AIG -- that's the current scapegoat. When you get a chance, take a look at the clips from 'Stewart vs. Cramer.' There are three parts (link to the first only, but you'll see the other two parts on the site). It's maybe 15-minutes in total. I sense the potential for a much wider outcry. Within that discontent, people are looking for a place to lay the blame. And it most certainly won't be on themselves. http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=220536&title=jim-cramer-pt.-1&byDate=true

For Tomorrow: No one that I know can predict the market consistently. This is especially true for me. What I find more useful is anticipating different market actions. When we see a scenario unfold that we anticipated like we did today, it is much easier to pull the trigger and go with a trade. As I look at the structure of the market, I see a potential Buying Climax (red arrows) and selling over yesterday and this AM at a confluence of resistance: intermediate Supply Line (red), Large Support area now turned Resistance (purple), and the Supply Lne of the 60-min Day Session UpTrend Channel (light blue). Despite all this bearish resistance, we cannot fail to take into account that the market has had a normal reaction to the current Demand Line (light blue). We cannot discount the possibility that this market may rally further. So, two basic scenarios play out: a reaction (in red) and a rally (green). A third (not shown), is sideways movement. For the reaction to take place, price would have to break down through the support area located by the black horizontal line. It may make a higher low in doing this (shown), or another UpThrust (also shown with a dashed line). It may also rally. perhaps coming down to the support level (black line) on light volume and then rallying above the resistance of both the intermediate term Supply Line (red) and the two day highs. Should it do this, we would look for a test to occur after the rally by backing up to or close to the intermediate Supply Line (now support). The other main possibility (not shown) is that the market goes sideways, holding it's gains in a resting pattern -- niether making new highs nor reacting very much. This would be bullish were this to occur. Anticipation rather than prediction is the name of the game. Lay out the probable scenarios and then trade accordingly. Let's see what happens Eiger

The Truth!! That is a tall order From the pure VSA perspective, you are correct - it doesn't quite meet the criteria. I was thinking more of the lack of ability to rally above the resistance line I drew, then closing below it. Sometimes it is hard to keep things 'pure.' Sorry to confuse you. The next bar closed under your resistance line. Check the 10-min chart, which does show the HUT nicely. It is a good idea to keep a higher time frame chart or two on your screen. Not everything sets up on the 3 or 5-minute charts.

The key trend lines are drawn in green on the attached chart. These contributed to the structure or background conditions. You need to go back for more data to see the longer-term supply line. A 60-minute chart shows this structure well. There were more indications than the UpThrust. Yesterday afternoon had a probable Buying Climax. The reaction from yesterday's high was on increased volume, indicating supply. The rally from yesterday afternoon lows was not particularly vigorous and we didn't make new highs in the overnight. These are detailed on the chart posted earlier and contribute to the overall background. The UT was the aggressive trigger, and the No Demand following the UT was the final confirmation and safer trigger. A 'story' was able to be told with all of the pieces from the structure of the market to the probable BC. Try to build a story for every trade. Avoid reliance on one or two bars. When you have a story, you have taken into account background & structure, key trend lines, S/R, characters of the rallies and reactions, etc. Once these are in place, you then look for VSA indications, not before. Eiger

No. There was nothing that spoke of a short there. The market had become over sold and was being bought over the intial 45-mins. It then began moving up with some impulse. It pushed above yesterday's low and did not react strongly from there. There is other SOS as shown on the chart. I don't understand this question. A No Demand is the opposite of a Test. No Demand indicates no buying, a Test indicates no selling. This is pure VSA. That is all that is used. You should not try to learn VSA solely by the posts and charts on the VSA Forum. You would be wise to get a copy of Tom Williams's The Undeclared Secrets that Drive the Stock Market and study that text. It will clarify the indications for you and when to look for them, detail SOW/SOS, explain the proper drawing of trend lines, etc, etc. Most all the questions you are asking are addressed there. Eiger

Last night I was working with another trader and we reviewed the structure (i.e., background) of the market on the higher time frames. From our analysis, we anticipated high odds of either an upthrust of yesterday's high or a lower high being put in this AM. Lower odds given the structure was a further rally above yesterday's high. It is very useful to layout the market structure like this because when you do, you are well-prepared to make a trade the next morning should one of your anticipated scenarios prevail. You can see from the attached 5-minute chart that the UpThrust scenario played out as anticipated. Planning for this possibility in advance allowed for an aggressive trade on the UT. A more conservative (and, maybe more sensible overall ) entry was on the No Demand. Another good location to initiate a trade or add to the winning position was on the Hidden UT. Again, understanding the background is the critical component here. It allows you to anticipate and plan out different market actions for the following day. We can never know what the market will do tomorrow, no matter how clear it seems to us at the moment. Nevertheless, reading the background and scoping out different scenarios allows you to 'see' the right edge of the chart more clearly and be more aggressive in your trading as an anticipated event unfolds. Eiger