Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
-
Content Count
548 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Calendar
Articles
Everything posted by Eiger
-
Hi Dan, I'll give you what I can on this ... Tom Williams always talks about the importance of background. Things in the market, like in life, do not happen out of context. I made a few posts recently about being aware of support and resistance. This is part of the background, either in terms of horizontal areas of S/R, trend channels, pivots, etc. The eRussell is not a market I trade, but the principles all hold across the markets. Let's first look at the background as it evolved on the 15-minute chart (first chart). You've heard the adage, 'support becomes resistance.' This chart shows it pretty well. Support along the 719 level that first came into the market on 20 June became resistance on yesterday and again today. You can see that pretty good volume came in just before noon on the 24th and again this morning. Price was rejected at the 719 level both times, showing supply was dominate at that level. Just before the bar you asked about as the FOMC made it's announcement, volume again came in high at the 719 level and once again price was rejected (at 1). On the rally back up, there was No Demand at 2, confirming the supply we saw at 1 and all of the Ss. So, the background was dominated by supply. I added a couple of old charts where price broke through an old top. In the first one from 3 April, you can see there was supply at D, which extended further to the left (not shown). From F, the market rallied. Notice the character of the rally. There is a stair-stepping, volume tends to expand on the rallies (F-G & H-I) and recedes on the reactions (G-H, I-J). Note that most of the bars on the rallies close above the previous bar's close. We make a new high at I, and the reaction to J holds at prior support (G). The reaction to J sees volume diminish and spreads tend to narrow. Very orderly and quite bullish. Note the push up above the supply areas at D & I. Several wide pread up bars, closing on their highs on good, but not excessive volume (compare to volume at D). Here's another example from the other day, 19 June. Again a significant supply area (A-J-O-R). When the market reacts to S-T, it holds support. The reaction does not draw out supply (high volume). On the rally up and through the top of the trading range, the bars are orderly, wide spread, closing above one another and volume expands as price rises. For one additional example, look at the 20 February chart posted earlier (not posted here) that you and Sebastian analyzed. (That was a nice analysis you did on that chart). Look at how support was held on the reactions, the character of te reactions, and the quality of the rally that broke through the resistance in terms of price spread, closes, and volume. Now the 3-min chart. Right after the FOMC announcement very heavy volume came in over several bars, and price could not get above the 719 level - not a good sign. Instead, both volume and price expanded to the downside, indicating supply was in control. Note that price was unable to hold support that extended back to 9:45 or so. Instead, price pushed well through that support and makes a lower low. There was also a lot of churning with fairly wide price and high volume in the circled area. Comapre this area in terms of volume and spread with the other charts. Volume was still high on the reactions. The high volume area (red arrows around the 713-711 area) was never adequately tested. When price did go up and through resistance, it did so on ultra wide spread and the highest volume on the chart (excessive). It didn't push through resistance on several good demand bars with expanding volume like the other charts. It also didn't get very far above resistance before starting to react, again, compare to the other charts. Sebastain has noted that when there is an important new announcement, a simple notion to think about is that when the market is taken lower during the day, the odds favor higher prices off the news, and vice versa. Hope this is helpful. Eiger
- 2244 replies
-
- technical analysis
- volume spread analysis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Hi Sebastian, Great video analysis! You're right, I didn't expect you to do that -- it's better than I expected. The date was was Feb 20th. I thought it was an interesting chart because of the pre-market news (CPI & Housing Starts) being used to shake out the market and provide professionals with the opportunity to buy off the news for a later mark up. When you watch the response to the early AM news items from a VSA perspective, you can often see what the tone of the market will be for the rest of the day, as in this day. I thought it was pretty interesting, too, that professionals kept it in a fairly tight range through the morning session, but the bottoms kept rising, and then pushed it up into the noon hour. The later girations around 2:00 were the FOMC meeting minutes being released. I suspect that they used this news and the subsequnt rally to unload what they had accumulated earlier in the day. Bookends of news for accumulation and distribution. Brilliant analysis, as always. I got a lot out of it I'll be talking with Gavin next week. We'll see how it goes. It would be great to meet you in the fall.
- 2244 replies
-
- technical analysis
- volume spread analysis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Sometimes a chart will jump out at you - not so much for making a trade, but for the lessons it has to teach. Each night I annotate the day's chart, print it out, and keep it in a notebook. I review these from time to time, and that is a helpful thing to do. But, some charts have a lot to teach. I put these into a separate file for more focused review and study. A while ago and on a different forum, Sebastian posted a chart without annotation, he just marked where important VSA indications took place. I had been studying his charts for a while. In this chart, he suggested those following his nightly analyses try their hand at annotating the chart. I did, and it was at that point that I learned for myself that I understood VSA. It allowed me to go to the next level. So, in that fine tradition here is a chart you can annotate. This is one of those charts that I put into a separate notebook because it has a lot to teach us as traders. Give this a shot and post your annotations, so we can discuss and learn. Be sure to draw tend lines and pay special attention to support & resistance. It is not necessarily an easy chart, but I guarantee that if you put in a little effort, there are things you will take away that will serve you well in your future trading. Please try it. The chart is the ES on a 5-minute time frame from February 20, 2008. It includes some of the relevant trading from the overnight session. Have fun! Eiger
- 2244 replies
-
- technical analysis
- volume spread analysis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Mr Ed's idea of doing a bar replay is an excellent idea. It is one of the great tools we have available today that people like Tom Williams in the 1980s, Dave Mathys in the 1970s, George King in the 1960s, Bob Evans in the 1950s, and Richard Wyckoff in the 1910-30s didn't have. Although we stand on the shoulders of these giants, we can take advantage of the tools of our day and can advance the technique, even if only for ourselves. This is what Tom Williams has done in computerizing VSA, which was originally called "Wyckoff/VSA," now TradeGuider. Bar Replay is a terrific tool for learning VSA and for simulating "real time" analysis and decision-making. It is one of the tools I use all the time, even when just going over the past week just traded. Eiger
- 2244 replies
-
- technical analysis
- volume spread analysis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Hi Dan, I make note of them on all days. Many times, the market never gets to the overnight high or low, and that can be useful information in itself. I never know how the market is going to respond to a report--though I am always aware of when a report or potential news item is due--so I don't filter Globex levels by reports. However you determine S/R, the key idea is to know these levels in advance and then watch how price trades around them. VSA indications are excellent in this regard. The 19th illustrates trading around and through S/R levels pretty nicely, I think. It is a worthwhile day to study. Eiger
- 2244 replies
-
- technical analysis
- volume spread analysis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Hi again Mike, The market on June 19 was very interesting from a VSA perspective. If you had difficulty reading it, you now have a good opportunity learn more about VSA and how to use it in the market. I’ll do my best to give you as clear a read on this day as I can. Each night, I review the market and pay particular attention to support & resistance (S/R). You can almost always expect trading to occur around the S/R levels the next day. How it trades at these areas will tell us what to expect next, in terms of the next move, and this is very helpful. There are many valid ways to identify S/R (Fib levels, floor trader pivots, Darvas Boxes, etc), and all work. But as I said in some earlier post, I just look for the obvious, as this works very well, too. I figure if I can see it, so can everyone else . A VSA indication off an obvious S/R level is usually pretty solid. I pay particular attention to yesterday’s high & low, Globex high & low, and the S/R levels on the 60-minute chart. Trend lines are also noted, as these are also areas where supply and demand can be expected to come in. The first chart (60-min) shows key S/R levels: 1333.25 – the low from June 12, 1348.50 – yesterday’s high in the day session. ES Analysis for June 19, 5-minute chart: A – An UpThrust (UT) into the Globex high resistance area. Next bar is down on wide spread, closing on its lows. The UT and this subsequent bar indicate supply is in the market at this level. B – Some buying comes in on B – B dips below the previous bar, turns around and closes on its high. The bar before B also showed some buying (note the close). C – An UT. There is weakness in the background (A) and even though some buying had come in at B there was no climactic action. Expect lower prices. D – Wide spread down bar closing above its middle on ultra high volume. This is buying and a definite change in character from the weakness already seen. Note that this is occurring at 1333.25, a support level we identified earlier. Next bar is down, however, which is not a bullish sign. We want to see an up bar after a potential sign of strength, so we must be patient. E – Bar E and the preceding bar both dip below D, turn around, and close higher, back into the spread of D. Volume is lighter than at D, and volume does not increase to the downside. Note also the Shortening Of the Thrusts (SOT) – the lows from D to E have shortened and are not showing ease of movement down; it’s a struggle to go lower. These indications, coupled with the climactic action at D are bullish. Supply has been taken out of the market. The next bar (after E) is up aggressively, and the market rallies. 1 – F – As the market rallies back into the area of C (where we had supply and weakness in the form of an UT), it struggles to rise. You can see this best in the lack of progress made in the closes. This is analogous to the SOT seen on the lows at D – E, but here it is seen in the closes. Also, the closes between 1 and F are occurring in the middle, rather than on their highs – a further sign of weakness. G – A Test. Bar G is a test that occurs as a down bar, average spread, close off the lows and, significantly, volume less than the previous two bars. Because of G, the weakness seen from 1 – F can be read as temporary. The Test at G shows no real supply in the market at this moment. Next bar is up and the market rallies. H – An up bar, close in the middle on an increase in volume as the market approaches the resistance at the old top at A. Supply is coming in here, seen by the marked increase in volume and poor close. I – No Demand. This is a narrow spread up bar, closing on its highs on volume less than the previous two bars. As the market approaches the prior supply area at A, the professionals withdraw, indicating in advance that the market is unlikely to rally through the old top. J – An UT at resistance. Note we have several VSA indications of supply, starting with some weakness at F, supply at H, No Demand at I and now an UT at J. All are occurring at resistance (Globex high and A) where we might expect weakness to re-emerge. Next bar is down and the market falls. K – As the market falls back into the demand area of D, buying re-occurs indicated by the fairly wide spread down bar closing in the middle on sustained volume. Both the VSA indication and the location (near support) are important. Next bar is up. L – Although an up bar occurs after potential strength, it is a No Demand bar (narrow spread, significantly low volume) indicating that the market is not ready to rally. Next bar is down. M – A Spring at the 1333.25 support area. This bar dips below E and rallies to close on its high. Note the close is higher than the previous bar. Also look at the volume. Compare the volume at M with E and D and also K. Volume is less than these down bars. All of this indicates supply has dried up at support and demand is in control. Next bar is up. N – Two Tests occur at the Ns. The first is a test on volume less than the previous two bars, the second is a low volume test. Note how the bar lows are rising between the two Ns. Very bullish. O – The market rallies back to resistance and stalls. Note the weakness two bars before O. There is churning at resistance in the noon hour, and the market is unable to rally higher and reacts. P – A narrow spread down bar closing above the middle on volume less than the previous two bars – a Test indicating a lack of supply. Note how this reaction did not fall back to the support at 1333.25. Instead, it is holding its gains, and this is a bullish indication. Q – A Hidden Test that occurs after minor weakness and the market rallies back into resistance. R – An UT at the now fairly formidable resistance area of the Globex high, A, J, & O. Note how the volume, spreads and closes on the rally to R are lackluster. The market reacts. S & T – Buying comes on these bars as the market reacts back into the area where buying had taken place on two earlier occasions (D and K). I drew a red line to indicate the support area. This is also a ½ - way retracement of the rally from M to O. The mid-point (50%) retracements were important to Wyckoff and indicate a normal reaction where he would look for support to come in. Note also the rising lows after T (bullish). There was also a Test on the 3-minute chart. The market rallies. U – Wide spreads and high volume pushes up through the resistance level (A, J, O, R). Compare the character of this rally (spreads, closes, volume) with the rallies from E to J, M to O, and P to R. These differences are subtle but readable, and tell whether the opposition formed by the resistance level will be broken or will repel price. The same clues occur in the opposite direction when price approaches support. V & W – The high volume at U is tested at V (a Test, though the spread is a bit wide) and again at W – a Hidden Test. With strength in the background, the market rallies higher. X – A 2-Bar UT/Top Reversal. The volume on the bar before X was quite high (compare to U) and it closes off the highs. Next bar goes higher on fairly high/sustained volume and closes on its low and below the prior bar’s close. Why does this happen after the strength seen on the push through the resistance at U? Recall our nightly analysis. Yesterday’s (the 18th) high was 1348.50 and we are in that resistance area here. Knowing these areas in advance is important because they reinforce the VSA indications we see and bring life to them. The market falls. Red Circle – I wanted to point this area out to you. Compare this area with the green circle area at S&T. In the red area, closes are mostly poor and tend to hug nearer the lows. We also see lower highs and lower lows within this area, especially at the end of the small trading range. These are all indications that price will not hold. In the green area, closes are better, spreads widen to the upside, and there is a lifting of supports (or lows) after T. Subtle, but again readable with practice. --------- Sorry for the length of this, but there is a lot packed into this chart that can be studied and learned from for the next time this occurs (and it will). Although hindsight, every indication occured in real time. Useful guidelines include: Map out S/R in advance and as the market unfolds during the day Look for VSA indications in these areas. Look for confirmation of VSA indications. Compare and contrast the up and down waves as they unfold. Look for changes in character in both the waves (e.g., the holding of a higher low over the noon hour) and in the bars (via volume, spreads, and closes). Hope this is helpful, Eiger
- 2244 replies
-
- technical analysis
- volume spread analysis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Hi Mike, I will do it later tonight or over the weekend. I still do a little work for a clinic in NYC (I am also a clinical psychologist), so I can't get to it right now, but will. Eiger
- 2244 replies
-
- technical analysis
- volume spread analysis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
The Unknown Future: To Predict or Not to Predict
Eiger replied to firewalker's topic in Market News & Analysis
I view the markets as chaotic and fractile: chaotic meaning that large movements can start with small influences that may not be easily recognized, amd fractile meaning pattern formations are similar across time frames. Neither time frame is more random than the other. The smaller the time frame, the more susceptible it is to shock. If an unexpected news item occurs, a big move can occur on the small time frame and appear totally random because its size is out of proportion to other moves. On the higher time frames, price may move with rapidity, but the size of the move is more consistent with other movements. Thus, it appears "less random." If the above be true, it begs the question: Is the shorter time frame less predictable than the higher time frame? Every expert always says to start trading on higher time frames first. Is it due to a difference in predictability? Eiger- 79 replies
-
The Unknown Future: To Predict or Not to Predict
Eiger replied to firewalker's topic in Market News & Analysis
High fuel prices triggered a thought about change: How in the hell did we in the US elect Bush for a second term!! We knew he was the worst President in an awfully long time. We knew he started the war in Iran without credible reason. We knew he was expanding government and spending faster than than any other president in the entire history of the New World. We knew he literally stole the election. How did we do it again? See how hard behavior is to change? Eiger- 79 replies
-
The Unknown Future: To Predict or Not to Predict
Eiger replied to firewalker's topic in Market News & Analysis
Human behavior is very slow to change. Much of it is determined by genetics, which take millenia to evolve. Have you ever tried to change a behavior ("habit") you didn't want? Have you ever tried to change your behavior by getting into a new "habit" (e.g., going to the gym routinely)? Even in settings where people have a strong desire to change such as in therapy, change is very difficult to achieve. Psychologists view change as a process that has several stages. Interestingly, relapse (i.e., falling back to old habits) is one of the expected stages of change, and patients frequently cycle through change - relapse - change - relapse before change really sticks. And, that's when people do things conscously. When you think about the mass of human behavior changing - as in trading - it probably isn't all that conscious. When my trading mentor first handed me the Wyckoff text, i thought "How can something written 70 years ago have any relevance to trading today's markets?" Ha! Little did I know. Even with all the changes overs the years in SEC rules, new technologies, arbitrage, new trading instruments, etc, the stuff still works well. Some things have changed, of course, but on balance, it is still an excellent way to trade markets. That's because even with all of the new developments, its human behavior underlying the markets. Here's another way to look at it, as in attempting to aquire new habits. We know that some large percentage (90%+) fail at trading, and many are accomplished professionals and successful businesspersons from other lines of work. The main reason for the high failure rate (I believe) is that trading requires different behavior than the behaviors it takes to be successful in other professions. People just find it too diffiuclt to make the necessary behavioral changes. Human behavior isn't that easily changed. Eiger- 79 replies
-
The Unknown Future: To Predict or Not to Predict
Eiger replied to firewalker's topic in Market News & Analysis
I think making predictions pulls the ego in, and that sets us up for difficulties. We all seem to admire the Gann-like predictions of stating the high or low within an eighth. Wouldn’t it be great if we could do that? Wouldn’t we be great! If anyone actually can do it, we put them on a pedestal and make them into a trading hero. When I think carefully about this, though, I see the ego emerging. If I can make a prediction and be right, I must be great. I think, too, that it flies in the face of trading as an enterprise based on probabilities. Here’s a question. Which seems more compelling or appealing, A or B: A. I can predict the high and the low consistently within a few ticks. B. When the birds stop singing and the sky darkens, it’s probably going to rain. Most of us would probably chose A, even though we know in our heart-of-hearts that B is the better answer for trading the markets (unless of course, we happen to be Gann ). I think we choose A because it reflects what psychologists call ego-syntonic. It stokes the ego because it places “I” in the driver’s seat (“I predict”), and the ego likes that. In B, there is no I. The birds are driving the bus. Not too appealing to the ego. Other things operate that make it less likely that we would chose B. From behavioral finance, for example, we know that people in general ignore base rates, or the probability of some event. The researchers in this area discovered that most people will ignore probabilities in favor of familiarity, salience, and other non-probabilistic features, even when they know probabilities are important. Preferring other—and often unrelated—explanations for things, we naturally don’t think in terms of probabilities. There was a relevant study in behavioral finance that created a simulated trading environment and had groups of people trading a variety of things. Just before trading, some people’s egos were mildly challenged. Although the ego challenges were randomly assigned, these people traded consistently worse than persons who were not challenged. Apparently, protecting the ego was more important than good trading outcomes. We all know, too, that when the ego is on the line, anxiety goes up. I think most people would say that choice A is more stressful than choice B, other things being equal. When stress rises, our cognitive abilities plummet. We miss obvious things and tend to make poor choices. The most recent research is showing that poor outcomes related to stress is due to a focus on internal thoughts and sensations. When we are under stress, our cortical activity increases and in a very real sense, our focus shifts from what’s happening in the market to what’s happening with us, though we may not be fully conscious of this at the time. I always liked David Mathys’ (prior training director at Wyckoff/SMI) idea that it is better to anticipate than to predict. Prediction has a hard edge to it. You are either right or you are wrong. Anticipation has a less hard edge. You can be more open to possibilities, such as base rates and the probability that the trade won’t work out. I think you are also more open to what the market is saying because it is a less stressful posture. Anticipating the rain by noticing that the birds stopped singing, rather than predicting it will rain is what Mathys was advocating for trading. I used to trade Wolfe Waves with another trader. He was an excellent trader and was very successful trading just this one pattern. But it wasn’t because he could identify the buy and sell waves; a little training and anyone can do this. His success was due to his attitude towards his trades. He would put a trade on and then always say, “Now it’s up to the market to decide.” This was his mantra, and he always made a point of saying this. He acted very much like choice B: He anticipated a change in direction, and then let the market drive the bus. He was able to let the trade outcome and his ego go. Few of us seem to be able to do this. Maybe this is why many of us find trading so difficult. Eiger- 79 replies
-
Thanks, everyone. It is good to know you find these charts helpful. As you can probably guess by now, I am pretty passionate about VSA and the Wyckoff method Sorry, Sebastian. I would never want to “take over” from you – couldn’t anyway, as you really have the chops. In fact, I was hoping to go to Colorado this fall, meet you, and learn more from you. You really have made VSA come alive for me. I understand about the quiet life, though. Here’s a shot taken from my deck of a pair of deer grazing in the meadow below my house. They come by nearly every day, as do a small flock of turkeys, assorted birds and small animals. We almost see no other house from ours. It is quite a peaceful place. I imagine Jersey has similar characteristics. I must say, though, that am intrigued about connecting with Gavin & co, so I’ll send a PM on that. Eiger
- 2244 replies
-
- technical analysis
- volume spread analysis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
The Undeclasred Secrets of the Stock Market - Tom Williams The Wyckoff/SMI Course Studies in Tape Reading - Rollo Tape (aka Richard Wyckoff) Reminiscenses of a Stock Operator - Lefevre More than You know - Michael Mauboussin The last book is a nicely written work that covers a lot of ground regarding trading/investment psychology and behavioral finance.
-
Certainly a misstatement and untrue. Ends of trend occur all the time outside of support and resistance. Look at your charts. As Wyckoff always said, volume and the shortening and lengthening of the up waves and down waves are what count, not your poor and inaccurate reinterpretations. The original chart was a 15-min chart posted by MC. Your 1-min charts are oranges (rotten fruit, actually). This isn't about you or your charts. Why don't you try to check your narcissism at the door. It would serve everyone well.
-
I just came across this post: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/i-look-back-now-and-wonder-4014.html One of the best posts on this site. Definitely worth reading.
- 2244 replies
-
- technical analysis
- volume spread analysis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Terrific post. You're experience shows.
-
You can't expect the market to turn on this kind of "testing." You need to see: high volume, a large rally, then a test. Until this occurs, so called support and resistance has little to offer in identifying the end of a trend. There was no large rally here. This was an indication of secondary (additional) distribution (i.e., more selling and supply). Viewing it as "testing" is inaccurate. When I look for a change in trend, I don't just look at support/resistance on the last wave; that will only serve to make you a part of the Herd. Background, or context, is key. Hope this is helpful, Eiger
-
Pretty amazing, isn't it? The truth is that every day has several good opportunities. People who have said, "VSA doesn't work," "you can't read the signals," there is "one correct entry on the day," "it's only good if there is support/resistance," and so on have never taken the time to learn it. I always laughed at this 'straw man' nonsense. I am not saying that this is the only way to trade. But I am saying that if you want to trade it, it is very, very possible to do very, very well with VSA. To do well with it, I think you need to study and understand it well. Here is some straightforward suggestions on how to develop your knowledge, skills, and abilities in VSA: Get Tom Williams's book, the "Boot Camp Chart Reading" CDs, and, if you can, the Symposium DVDs. Study these well. Try to really understand the roles of the Professional Money and the Herd. Understand how risk is transferred at the top and bottom of the waves and how to spot the signs of the transfer. Look up Sebastian Manby's charts on T2W, Elite Trader and here. Study these well. This is how you begin to understand how to apply VSA. Annotate your charts every night -- keep looking to understand where weakness/strength comes in and what to look for as confirmation and in setting up a trade. Once you begin to understand things like UpThrusts, Bottom Reversals, Tests, Stopping Volume, No Demand, etc, start to look for them on higher time frames than your trading time frame. Keep running, higher time frame charts so you understand the structure of the market and you can begin to think ahead into how the market is likely to trade the next morning and where important support and resistance may develop. Write (yes, write) a draft VSA trading plan. Test you knowledge, ability, and your trading plan with Bar Replay with several months of data (for the 5-min time frame) and record every "trade." Note where you should put your stops and how much "heat" is typical on a trade. Note also your average profit per trade and what it looks like when the market starts to turn. Revise your VSA trading plan. Paper trade this real time until you are quite comfortable with your knowledge, skills, and abilities in trading VSA. Refine your VSA trading plan based on your real time paper trading. Finally, start small with real money and gradually build up your position size slowly. So there it is. No secret. Not brain surgery. Just work. And, it does require work, lot's of it. But, if you really want to trade VSA .. well, this is one way to definitely do it. It is work though, but this is what will separate you from the Herd. Now, do you really think there is any other way? Hope this is helpful. Eiger
- 2244 replies
-
- technical analysis
- volume spread analysis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Today was a pretty interesting day with a lot of VSA indications, and, of course, opportunities in the ES on the 5-min chart. The market had traded to yesterday afternoon's highs in the overnight, and rejected this price level. It started trending down into the open, and the market opened at yesterday afternoon's low. But the first three bars made lower lows, and at A, closed below Tuesday's afternoon low. B - No Demand, and the market falls C - the market fell 13+ points in 45 minutes, and climaxed at C on a wide spread, ultra high volume bar closing in the middle. D - A Bottom Reversal, but volume is still quite high. Next bar has higher volume and makes no headway - still supply. E - Another Bottom Reversal on much lighter volume and the market rallies F - A Sudden increase in volume on this up bar with the next bar down warns of supply. G - After a small reaction, a No Demand H - UpThrust, and the market falls I - High volume on this wide spread down bar suggests the lows might be broken. But, the next bar has almost as much volume and makes no downside progress - stopping volume. J - A Test, and the market rallies 5+ points. K - No Demand - note the shortening of the thrusts and poor net gain of the closes. L - A 2-bar UpThrust/Top Reversal. M - More high volume (though note it is progressively diminishing) and the next bar is up. N - Test and another weak rally. O - Another UpThrust preceded by shortening of the thrust and weak bars. P - Another bounce off support. Q - No Demand R - Sudden increase in volume, close in the middle in the same area as F,G,H,K,L where supply had come in twice before. Next bar is an UpThrust. S - No Demand bars T - UpThrusts; the second showing no ability to rally away from the danger point.
- 2244 replies
-
- technical analysis
- volume spread analysis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
So far today, the cash market has held the daily Demand Line.
- 2244 replies
-
- technical analysis
- volume spread analysis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
Tests ... There was a nice spring and the market tested 3 bars later (green arrow). (Also note you can see buying on higher time frames). As it moved up, there were two other test-like bars (T). I say test-like, because they didn't draw supply, even though volume wasn't less than the previous two bars. Supply did come in on the up bar marked (S). Then it was tested, and two bars later, No Demand at the Supply Line. So, even when the volume is fairly light as over the noon hour, you can still see the VSA principles in action. Eiger
- 2244 replies
-
- technical analysis
- volume spread analysis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
On the intraday time frames on a good trend, you will see volume swell markedly near the end of a trend. Then look for the largest rally/reaction in the trend to occur next. The market is likely to then test the extreme price, which could extend price a little more, or not, but watch the volume - it will be significantly lighter.
-
I have used a Dell Inspiron notebook for the past year. It has built in wi-fi and it has worked exceptionally well. I don't use it for gaming, though it would probably handle the graphics. No worries with charting software (MetaStock, e-Signal, TradeStation), and never a problem with the internet connection via wireless. It is very fast, and quite lightweight. A nice feature is that you can get a pretty good battery that lasts 5+ hours. It is light weight and has never needed service. Now, I think you can get pretty much any color your want. I would (and will) buy another one. Eiger
-
Using multiple time frames is quite helpful. My analysis of the weekly and daily charts is for two purposes: 1) intermediate term trades (several days to several weeks), and 2) to understand the general line of least resistance/trend. Knowing the general trend on the daily & weekly lets me know that intraday moves in the same direction will often run for a while. Knowing this, I can hold trades a bit longer. During the day, I watch the 30, 15, 5, & 3-min charts. All are used for indications, but my trading time frame is on the 5 & 3-min. I don't take a trade off the 30 or 15-min chart, but I use them for set-ups. Here is an example from the other day showing how i use the combination of the 15 & 5-min charts where the inital indications are a bit clearer on the higher time frame: On the 15-min chart at A, high volume resulted in an UpThrust. One bar later on the 5-min, there was a No Demand. Another 15-min UpThrust at B with a slight increase in volume (supply), then a bar later on the 5-min, No Demand. At C, a No Demand on the 15-min coming into the Supply Line, and No Demand on the 5-min as the 15-min bar closes (i.e., both bars close at 1:00 PM). The market falls after C and the 15-min chart shows clear supply. The 5-min then shows a very weak rally with No Demand. The No Demand up bars are good bars for entry when there is weakness in the background, as there is in these charts in every case. The big clue here is to use the higher time frame chart to find weakness or strength and then use the trading time frame for the entry. Hope this helps. Eiger
- 2244 replies
-
- technical analysis
- volume spread analysis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
I'll be watching this
- 2244 replies
-
- technical analysis
- volume spread analysis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with: