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Bearbull

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Everything posted by Bearbull

  1. Bearbull
    Ubetido, You would be far better first imbibing the principles of price/vol relationships via Wyckoff, then moving into VSA, that way you will have the horse before the cart;) keeping in mind that VSA has been derived from original Wyckoff material which incidentally focussed on daily charts only. However the laws of supply/demand, effort/result, cause/effect are absolute and operate in intraday futures markets. Ofcourse the choice is yours
  2. Bearbull
    Well, Wyckoff obviously had an uncanny abilility to ascertain with great accuracy the imbalances of supply and demand and exploit from it. I don't think many here have attainted that status. As for successful traders coming on to trading forums, it is heartening to learn that they do , am sure you have benefited from exchanges with them both here and on other forums. James who started this website I believe is a successful trader. Trading is a lonely business and I know quite a few competent traders who have branched into teaching, mentoring etc to break up the boredom and to maintain contact with the trading world. Nothing wrong with that surely.
  3. Bearbull
    FW, If anybody can predict the prices on a consistent basis, he or she would not be posting here but buying up Islands in the pacific;) As for belief, it is personal and has got nothing to do with reality. Einstein did not believe in the ramifications of Quantum Mechanics, what did that prove, Einstein was wrong. As for belief in GOD, well first one has to define with clarity what one means by "GOD";)
  4. Bearbull
    Goes with any setup, depends on the context, wyckoff employed it to great advantage, that is good enough for me.
  5. Bearbull
    Combination of factors: Resistance from the left, climatic vol. first around 1960 on the 12th , then around 1980 for the 13th June. One could enter at dead centre (Wyckoff term) prior to breakout, with very small stop loss or wait for a breakout with increased vol and a slight retracement (No demand in VSA jargon) on a limit entry.
  6. Bearbull
    Great example of hinges and midpoint support for high probability trades on NQ
  7. Bearbull
    PURE WYCKOFF: Learn to aniticipate THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE with the info. in front (within the context of previous price action (NOT PREDICT), this then allows room for adopting a flexible mindset, ability to discern changes in supply/demand pressure on an ongoing basis and go from a bullish to bearish & vice versa , stance without hesitation.
  8. Bearbull
    Just got back from a whirlwind tour of the Wild West counties myself, think you will find that vast majority of successful trader(10%) go through the many phases you have described (Market Wizards testimonies), then there are many (90%)who get trapped in the eternal search for the holy grail. Anyway have a good break in Florida, looks like you deserve it.
  9. Bearbull
    Who did you order it from, what was the extra postage cost? and more importantly if you have gone through it, what do you make of the contents.
  10. Bearbull
    Get hold of the following: 1. High Probability Trading by Marcel Link, has all the details on combining different time frames. 2. Techniques of Tape Reading by Vadym Graifer & Christopher Schumacher Hasten to add that here tape reading is more to do with price/vol than the DOM, you will learn how to construct strategies, setups and tactics.
  11. Bearbull
    Winnie, Wish I had all this info. available way back in 1998, had to spend years searching Anyway am off to greener pastures for a welcome break from this business, before I leave here are the charts with what happened next. It would be easy to explain this away with the help of 60min, 120min etc charts, however when trading realtime, one has to have some advance planning, as to what you want to see at certain price levels, which strategy to apply and tactics to implement that strategy, and what price action would you have to see to negate your original analysis. Move forward bar by bar on a 5min chart following previous charts and see how you can handle the price action...............it is a different ball game from hindsight analysis;) Good Luck
  12. Bearbull
    Well winnie, you must feel as if you have opened up a hornet's nest here, you have to ignore all this bickering, anyway to be successful in this arena, courage, self reliance, discipline, persistence and hard work are essential qualities. You have to seek out the right knowledge that makes sense to you and you only and then verify in real market, develop your own strategies/tactics and trade management rules. In the final analysis the choice is yours whether to follow the herd or be independent, it is your career and your money on the line. Leave you with this to ponder over: 1. ES 1, 14th May The strategy regarding short trade was explained away in terms of previous resistance levels of 2nd and 6 May, sign of weakness, upthrust, no demand etc.(post 1178) “You could see weakness as I pointed out on the 5 minute chart. This was especially clear on the up thrust with high volume (2nd W). I saw the no demand bar at 1, as you pointed out. You could have taken a short trade there, and there would have been nothing wrong with that. Your stop would be above the last high, and if you had sat through all sideways action for the next 40 minutes, you would have been fine. I don't take those because of just that. I saw the up thrust and no demand, but this did not meet my trading plan requirements, so I let it pass. But, its a personal choice.” 2. ES 2 - This is price action on 15th May, study this and then examine 5min charts , (note similar times of the day around 1.30-2.30p.m), We have resistance to the left, all the signs of weakness, upthrust, no demand, As per the above strategy, what are the tactics this time???? 3. NQ1 - similar exercise for Nasdaq, and then watch the ensuing price moves. Hope this helps on your educational journey.
  13. Bearbull
    Yes patience, persistence and effort pays off with wyckoff and db's posts in the end, when I first started with candlestick charting , I went through similar phase, thought I had discovered the holy grail, all I had to do was to identify engulfing patterns, doji, morning , evening star etc and money would roll in, took some time to learn the importance of context, same is happening in the VSA world, to the newly so called enlightened wannabe traders who have emerged out of the 3 recent weekend seminars on VSA armed with the ability to read all the footprints of the smart money, mulling and chewing of every upbar and downbar. When an effort is made to point out the fallacy and the divergence of VSA from its original source Wyckoff, instead of engaging in productive discussion, it is looked upon as an attack on their Gurus teachings and in turn they try to teach you the right way of trading, sometimes I wonder how Db manages to persist and keep on casting pearls..............and putting up with the aggro.:crap:
  14. Bearbull
    You have completely the import of my posts, they were meant for newcomers to VSA, not to dissuade them from studying the various VSA principles but apply them in proper context and also try to make effort to study the original source: Wyckoff. When I first studied candlestick charting back in 1993, I went through the same epiphany, saw those doji, engulfing bars etc on hindsight charts at the right locations prior to large price moves up or down, ofcourse those that were present at other locations remained blurred. Same happens with VSA for many folks, you have obviously overcome the obstacle, so good luck to you. As for the posts and emotional trading, have Tom's book as of 1998, do you still think I trade bar by bar as illustrated in the charts;) and also that after having acquired sound understanding of Wyckoff. :helloooo: It was meant to bring to the attention of any newcomers like winnie. Once again there is no intention to bash VSA, however your defensive response is more of emotional nature than my trading as it blocked the real message of the posts both mine or others who understand VSA and Wyckoff inside out;) once again best of luck to you Hasta La Vista
  15. Bearbull
    If an effort has been made to identify the right support/resistance zones , then price will move from one level to another irrespective of which timeframe chart you are reading, however if one is operating from say a 1min chart , then obviously a no demand or no supply bar can only be employed for scalping. In my last post the prices plummet and there is no "No Demand" bar in sight, however within each candle on a smaller timeframe there is no doubt there will be such bars present as prices are brought to a dull period prior to burst of activity representing continuation or reversal.
  16. Bearbull
    As has been stated previously, there are useful concepts and principles in Tom William's book, regarding price/vol relationships, however it is imperative to study Wyckoff material, avoid getting into the quagmire of VSA jargon, professionals, smart money etc and focus on supply/demand at significant price zones i.e support/resistance levels, effort v/s result, effort= vol, price move=result. and that is going to take lot of screen time, to sit and observe selling and buying pressures and waves without thinking too much about what you are going to do or should have done etc that can come later. It is cool to join the bandwagon and harp on about pros, footprints of elephants etc, but we have to keep in mind that "The smart money knows that ordinary traders are getting smart at reading their footprints and they are going to get even smarter to wrong foot those who think they have finally figured it all out by just reading a book on VSA:)" Anyway another example of how the market can be misread Fig. 1, lots of upbars on very high vol, surely a sign of weakness, time to short afterall there is no demand bar with confirmation on the next bar, is it not. o.k where you would you short, and where is the stop Fig. 2 Has the stop been hit, what happened to the setup, there was an ideal no demand bar confirmed on the next bar and with weakness in the background.
  17. Bearbull
    Gary, Talking about weakness in the background Fig 1, would you consider shorting here or going long, after downbars on relatively high vol, supply coming in, right, No. o.k --- no buying climax you say, market is not weak, fine, lets move on Fig. 2. what about this, if downbars on low vol mean no supply, then downbar on relatively high vol surely must mean increased selling, No, once again no WEAKNESS IN THE BACKGROUND, I hear you say Fig 3. how about this for an outcome Incidentally this is action on the Russell yesterday.
  18. Bearbull
    Fig. 10 - Another No Demand Fig. 11 - Another Down Bar on Low Vol? No supply ??? what to do Fig. 12 - facing the same situation as Fig 4 Incidentally Gary this is bar by bar as it would unfold in realtime of the chart you posted. If you have mastered this, that hats off to you;), but you can appreciate that any newcomers may benefit from such an exercise, wouldn't you say.
  19. Bearbull
    Fig. 7 - and once again no demand confirmed, another opportunity to short or add more contracts. Fig. 8 - what the heck, looks like a 2 bar reversal, where is my stop? Fig. 9 - what happened to the stops?
  20. Bearbull
    Fig. 4.. - Assume the short position was taken, do I stay short? Fig. 5 - No demand, better stay short, if not gone into the trade before, another opportunity to short , this is afterall a second no demand (vol less than previous 2bars). Fig. 6 - Once again downbar on low vol, no selling pressure, what do I do, ?
  21. Bearbull
    Once again have to repeat this: it is crucial , however it is upto the individual to take the message on board or reject it, the choice is yours, if you are making money via what you have managed to learn before, than all the best to you, there is no intention here to change that;) "What pushes price higher is demand, and it doesn't matter by whom or by what the demand is fueled. What is important to the trader is to determine when the demand has permanently (within that timeframe) exhausted itself (and, no, a "no demand" bar is not enough). Otherwise he will find himself consistently trading counter-trend. Back to the business of trading in realtime, am going to post 12 charts, they all have those no demand bars accompanied by downbars on low vol ( no supply, right????), this is what we face in realtime whilst making decisions and if those who trade this no demand bars can detect the real from the fake one, and which one will lead to that coveted price move, than that is great. Fig. 1 - here is no demand, do we short or wait for confirmation? Fig. 2. - but now there is a downbar on low vol, no selling pressure, right? Fig. 3. - oops, this confirms the No Demand, do I short, where is my stop loss point?
  22. Bearbull
    Gary, I can understand that initial flurry of epiphany after going through a seminar, have been through that phase myself when trying out indicators(CCI, MACD etc), Candlesticks, VSA, the lot, however after a thorough study of the original Wyckoff, the problems were glaringly obvious. At the outset, there is no intention to bash VSA or any other form of technical analysis, this is presented as more in the light of constructive contribution After significant price movement on a particular time frame, it would be easy to note the various candlestick formations (doji, engulfing bars etc) at the right locations of the turn, similarly with VSA signals of no demand, no supply, upthrusts and so on, simply because they reflect the balance of supply and demand at that moment at that price level and as Tom Williams states if they appear on hindsight charts, they must be there at the hard right edge, and he is absolutely right. However there in lies the main problem, how to recognise them at the right location. Those who have sound knowledge of both VSA and Wyckoff are trying to point out especially to newcomers to VSA is that the price/vol relationships have more relevance against significant support/resistance zones (price levels) rather than just anywhere on the chart, so instead of mulling and fretting over every bar, it is more productive to focus at these levels for high probability trades. Afterall for every setup that can be identified than has panned out, there is always a similar setup that did not pan out. So once again there is no intention to bash VSA or any other form of analysis. In this respect, I would urge any newcomers to VSA to really chew over and digest this quote from post 1146, this is pure Wyckoff (always remember VSA is derived from that" : "Wide spread up bars are created by buyers. Whether there are a few buyers pushing price higher or a great many is illustrated by the volume. Either way, this leads us to the second part of the misstatement, which is that the "smart money" [sic] is selling their holdings when "everyone dog piles" into the market. Professionals are in fact selling their holdings as soon as price begins its rise, buying first to move the price, then selling into the rise if buying interest manifests itself. What pushes price higher is demand, and it doesn't matter by whom or by what the demand is fueled. What is important to the trader is to determine when the demand has permanently (within that timeframe) exhausted itself (and, no, a "no demand" bar is not enough). Otherwise he will find himself consistently trading counter-trend. will address the issue of downbar on low vol signifying lack of selling in the next threads with some charts
  23. Bearbull
    Winnie, the following charts illustrates this: Fig 1. big up bar following congestion on very high vol. , then market drifts upwards on decreasing vol -- does this mean prof. are not interested in higher prices. Then prices come down a bit, followed by an upbar on very low vol: "No Demand" right, infact prices go down to confirm that......... WRONG: Fig.2, market was able to rise on low vol after retracement, why? no offerings, hence less resistance, the smart money realised this , then immediately tested the market, whilst those who were focussing on the No Demand, would have gone short as the markdown confirmed the No Demand, well look what happens next. Markets can keep going up as long as there is demand, volume aspect matters at relevant s/r levels. Lesson: learn to read supply and demand against relevant support/resistance levels rather than obessing over every bar/vol and dwelling on which pros. or smart money is buying or selling, especially when you are starting out, otherwise you will be going in circles;)
  24. Bearbull
    Once again I was merely trying to point out to Zeon that the argument he put forward previously on a trendline example which worked on one occasion and not on the other, similar charts can be presented for any indicator, VSA or RSI , CCI, candlestick patterns etc., Even the dragonfly in my example would work at other times as it is actual on a support level (congestion to the left) in which case somebody can point out : look this validates the signal, here is does not simply because the selling is overpowering demand, as simple as that. I know a thing or two about context and the rest, same with VSA concepts, Wyckoff and Candlestick charting, have been in the business for over 15yrs;) Back to you regularly scheduled program on candlestick thread
  25. Bearbull
    Yes I know that, I wanted to bring to your attention the ideal setups as per the VSA tutors, :crap: now you can ask them why it did not work that time, same to the candlesticks folks, am sure they will all come up with some justification.
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