Bearbull

Precisely, that is where all that talk about discipline and consistency comes into play. As per DbPhoenix's excellent definition of an Edge "An edge is the knowledge proved through research that a particular price pattern or market behavior offers an acceptable level of predictabiity and risk to reward to provid a consistently profitable outcome over time" Once the strategy, tactics, trading and money management rules are in place, adherence to the trading plan based on that is of paramount importance if consistent success is desired. Ofcourse there is also much merit in the Power of Quitting after a certain level of profit has been extracted or after a certain % loss, the river will be running tomorrow;)

Sorry to hear that pal, you should get enough free info here to get you on the right path provided you are prepared to put in some effort and not seeking a black box get rich quick system. I have consistently made effort to save newcomers such pain , to see their hard earned cash going down the drain after having enticed by glossy websites, and latest jargon. Anyway stick around, have a good look at the Wyckoff and Candlestick forums, there is invaluable material there.

Forgot the arrows. Yes all the filtering process via other indicators such as ADX, stochastic RSI , CCI , multiple time frames etc comes later , however as I have mentioned my initial intention was to point out to Robinhood 2 simple setups to experiment with and test out.

BF, The initial post was in response to RobinHood's inquiry as to the validity of employing candlestick charting on an intraday basis. As he had only used them on EOD analysis, the two simple setups i.e hammer and a 3bar reversal pattern in an uptrend via MA or trendline or both were pointed out as a starting phase to observe and acquire knowledge via research whether or not they provide acceptable level of predictability. The next phase would involve working out the tactics , i.e entry, exit, trading rules, money management etc , this depends entirely on the individual risk/reward tolerance but all this has to be worked out and tested and obviously requires considerable effort and patience as you already are aware I am sure. you might only get one or two setups a day, sometimes not at all, patience is not easy to implement. Only after that one can proceed to introduce other tools such as blending of candles, pivots, support/resistance, vol etc. and again proceeded by thorough testing along each step of the way. Also I would suggest to undertake the exercise initially on market hours price action only- pre market can be quite tricky especially just before the open where there is a tendency to move the prices the opposite direction to the true intentions. In your chart you showed an entry at a doji, which was premarket and which reflects indecision compared to a hammer or a dragonfly. The second entry again is not a hammer in the strictest sense, large tail/small body, however if you blend that with the the second candle(the second arrow on the attached) then it is close to a true hammer, however that takes place in the 2nd stage of the exercise. As to the entry/exit, this gets into the field of tactics and really there are numerous ways of managing a trade as in any other methodology. for example: Entry could be on the close of the bar or the bar following the hammer if the close is above the high, here again should one wait for the close of the 2nd bar or should the entry be as the price moves up through the high of the hammer -- all of this has to be up to the individual and has to be tested out. As for the exit: again it can be a fixed target or if trading say 2 contracts, take 1 off at a fixed target and trail the second (where and what distance - again tactics), The first target can be the previous swing high (in case of a long trade and vice versa on a short), the second trailing under each bar that moves in the required direction, avoiding any inside bars or doji where it is likely to be hit and then the trader would be sitting there observing the price moving back up again:) Moving of Stop: the initial stop would depend on the timeframe, here again so many ways of playing, the stop moved to breakeven after the price moves a certain distance etc. As we are dealing with trend it is imperative to stay with one timeframe, later on if we get into playing support and resistance, then ofcourse it becomes a new ball game.

It does not matter one iota which MA you use and who employed it first, the whole point is about concepts, to read the setup via candlestick pattern in terms of context. One could draw a trendline or a moving average or both. Then wait patiently for the setups in an uptrend and vice versa, experiment with this, work out the risk/reward ratios, test it thoroughly, see if it gives a trader a consistently profitable approach, if not then by all means add ADX and so on. The primary message was to avoid attaching meaning to every hammer, engulfing bar , gravestone doji etc:) However if anybody disagrees, fine, lets keep this civil and constructive, we know it is the most easiest thing in the world to criticize but then one should be prepared to post something which substantiates that and top it up with a positive contribution which will enhance the value of the thread and the forum.

elovemer, I was kind of in a rush re. previous post, the powersell concept was actually elaborated upon by Frank in post 205. He also explained Gap plays - very good info. I guess he would explain todays price action on ESmini, on that basis, price had been drifting premarket from 1235 to ~1212, creating a huge gap in the Day session. Wonder what is your take on that.

Yes as per your previous explanation, the initial trade to the short side would be the Powersell, followed by violation of the low for the subsequent Buy setup. Well lets see how Thursday and Friday pans out. It would be great if you could edit Taylors book and make it readable:)

Well folks come in now and then , put up some great explanations and then vanish, would be fruitful if we can continue on a daily basis and observe how the TT method pans out. I know Linda Raschke employs it very effectively, have tried to slog through Taylors book but it is almost unreadable;) Dogpile and WHY? both have made very useful contributions in this regard but once again have not heard from either for sometime now. Perhaps you can keep it alive. via whichever market you trade.

Once again leave out all this Smart and Dumb money rubbish, KEEP IT SIMPLE focus and learn to gauge Buying and Selling pressure Via Price and Volume at Key levels , there is enough info freely available in the Wyckoff forum to enable you to carry that out if the required effort is made. The alternative is to carry on , on the same path, even join the VSA club where they teach you to attach meaning to every single bar, where smart money or dumb money has entered and exited, hell if you might also pinpoint where the smartest money (Professional traders and VSA Experts and their disciples) came in, afterall they are able to track the smart money. Choice is yours.

Looks like the Company is back in business, wonder if any of the folks here have used their services before. http://www.futuresbetting.com/?utm_source=newsletter5&utm_medium=email_homepage2&utm_campaign=professional They are quite different from spreadbetting, as they offer order execution from a DOM and the orders do actually trade via the relevant exchange, and as they come under the category of futuresbetting, there is no capital gains tax;) Input from any who have any experience on this would be greatly appreciated.

If I recall, as per Brownsfan(perhaps you can check with him), there is enough liquidity on the CME currency futures to trade with, plus the main advantage being a regulated market and the price moves are similar to those on the Spot market.

Get hold of Vadym Graifer's Techniques of Tape Reading. Also visit Linda Raschke's site and download her articles on the same subject. It is not about reading order flow on Time & Sales nor anything to do with Depth of Market. Also as suggested above visit the Wyckoff forum, tons of free info. on how to read price action i.e buying and selling pressures. There are only a few principles. However in case you stumbled onto VSA team, they have managed to make it simple;) by having "400 indicators in their charting package" just in case you are keen like most newcomers to get entangled in unnecessary jargon of reading the footprints of the smart/professional/syndicate money.:crap: Good luck

From an interview with B, Steenbarger in the latest Traders mag (http://www.traders-mag.com) , Sept, 2008 Q: It's said that most traders effectively lose money. What are they doing wrong? Steenbarger: Most traders put their capital at risk before they have developed the necessary knowledge and skills to accurately read shifts in supply and demand in their markets. They don't truly have an edge in their trading, instead relying on superficial indicators of market direction. With the costs associated with equipment, software, brokerage fees, and slippage - and absence of quality training programmes and information networks- it's not surprising that so many individuals traders fail.

Now come on, you got to give some credit where it is due, the world would not have heard of VSA or Tradeguider, not to mention the countless Chart Reading Machines who have been unleashed via the various seminars, courses etc ie. guys who can pull up a chart and tell you what every tinny-winny bar means, these are real smart folks with the ability to read what the smart money is upto, Now that would make them ultra-smarter, would it not;) Am still trying to figure out the abstruse maths logic behind statements like "90% of the volume activity is professional money" , now how does that explain 95% traders making losses. Then there are other gems like "Markets do not like upbar on high vol, and then Strength appears on downbars on high vol", I guess the latter was being put into practice when Nick Leeson was buying up all those Nikkie contracts as the market was going down and well before VSA days, real smart money going into the market, well you can hear all about that in Aspen if you sign up for the latest course, only 10k for you;)

I like Dax as there are no problems regarding liquidity and the European markets do influence what happens in US and vice versa, have an interesting article on that, if you wish I can PM it to you. Anyway back to business in hand, have attached 2 charts of ES 45min, from July 15th. Would appreciate your take on those via TTT.

Thanks Frank, Dogpile also was not a pure Taylor trader, believe WHY? according to his posts was a staunch TTT guy, The attached charts were Dax 60min, the price action is much clearer on smaller time frames and when prices move in this market, they really move. As you outlined in your detailed post above, entry can be gained via vol. divergence , oscillator divergence , patterns or wyckoff price/vol, at optimum levels and in this respect, believe some of the concepts of Taylor could be provide that extra edge. Perhaps you could address the other 3 in a similar fashion, would be interested in your analysis.

Thanks for that, have attached some charts, would appreciate if you could identify similar TT setups, at your convenience ofcourse.

It is not in a bad location at all, no apologies needed, it is a great post, what I meant was you could include your comments also and add some more, in the other thread where there is a debate going on edge v/s mentality, sure to generate more interest.

Good Post RH, perhaps you could include your comments in the Edge vs Mentality thread

Well now, you might be able to fulfil that desire if you wish, sign up for the forthcoming symposium of Tradeguider (VSA) in Oct, 2008, to be held in ASPEN, Colorado, (only $10K) you would be joining up with professional traders, real smart ones plus many Pshychology Gurus and their Top Guest Speaker to talk about SMART MONEY, Nick Leeson himself;)

Great Effort Frank, at elucidating the concepts of TTT, LBR employs them very effectively in her trading. I believe dogpile has also elaborated on them in many of his excellent posts. you could perhaps follow this up with trading examples in the following weeks, am sure it would be of considerable interest to many here.

Precisely, we appear to be going in circles. Initially we all jump into the trading arena attracted by the prospect of making easy and very lucrative living, then embark on the hopeless search for the holy grail, some macho guys who have made it in other businesses are under the impression that because they have been successful in other areas that they can walk into this field and achieve control and milk the market., Have known a few with property portfolios of over 1-5million who have blown away their accounts in a single day trading S&P when 1pt was $500, thinking that if they made money with a couple of contracts, they should be able to do it with 10 or 50 or even 100 contracts, citing the famous example of walking on a plank of wood 4ft wide by 30ft in length placed on the ground first and then raised progressively first 50ft above ground, then 100ft and so on, assuming if the first task can be achieved , then the subsequent ones should not pose much problems with some mind control, it is easy to say but in practice well;) You are right, after the fruitless search for the holy grail or a system or a methodology that will "WORK", the wannabe trader hopefully realises that it is only he or she who can make it "WORK" then muster enough motivation and discipline to embark on the task of formulating a strategy with rules, followed by thorough testing and proving to him or herself whether it is consistently profitable or not (making the required modifications along the way) and then working on the mindset and discipline part to implement that strategy. When Douglas talks about successful traders having discipline and flexibility to go with the "FLOW" of the market, first one has to learn to understand the price action to figure out which way the market is likely to FLOW:crap:

I found this post on "Re: Edge VS Mentality" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month August, 2008"

I found this post on "Re: Edge VS Mentality" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month August, 2008"

Perhaps you could illustrate the methodology over the next couple of weeks as dogpile did some time back. I am sure there will many here who would take interest.