Bearbull

It is human nature to seek evidence that will reinforce their beliefs regardless of evolving evidence and this is what we bring to our trading (Mark Douglas). Firstly you acknowledge and many others here do as well that VSA is derived from Wyckoff, then why not encourage newcomers first to embark on a systematic study of the source instead of throwing themselves into jargon at the initial stage. I can state this because we have sound knowledge of both. Secondly Tradeguider was originally VSA based on Tom Williams' work in U.K, then it was glossed over with a new title, that is all, the software, signals therein, the ongoing teaching, seminar, DVD, are all based on T.W book on Volume Spread Analysis. All the terms in the Tradeguider software are exactly the same as those in the book. e.g End of Rising Market, this has been claimed as the most potent signal in the software, does that mean it is not in VSA. On YouTube there is the video how this signal predicted the fall of oil prices from $140 when everybody else was predicting higher prices. Now if you listen to any of the seminars, the first thing they point out that these are not signals and then when it pans out it is hailed as the most potent signal, just this one signal is enough to cough up $2995 for the software;) We have seen the software in action and this same signal has a similar strike rate to that of any CCI or RSI divergence method. Like you I am neither for or against and have no desire to engage in controversy with others on this thread, if you have somehow benefited from it, fine, but to ask a newcomer to struggle through it until he or she finds something that works is not really very encouraging. Afterall whatever you have figured out into your strategy/tactics is not available to the newcomer. Let him go to the source and then will be a better position to examine VSA concepts.

VSA experts would definitely be in a better position to answer that , as they possess an uncanny ability to gauge the footprints of the ELEPHANTS(PROFESSIONAL MONEY) and know all about market manipulation. They were even able to forecast against all analyst opinion at the time, the fall of oil price from ~$140 to ~$65 or thereabouts via their most potent signal, THE END OF THE RISING MARKET, it is even posted on YOUTUBE, (expect for those occasions when it does not pan out) whether they made money out of that or not is a different question:) Incidentally elephants do go through the "Musth" period Musth (or, alternatively spelled, must) is a periodic condition in bull elephants, characterized by a thick tar-like secretion called temporin from the temporal ducts on the sides of the head and, far more notably, by highly aggressive behaviour. It is accompanied by a significant rise in reproductive hormones - testosterone levels in an elephant in musth can be as much as 60 times greater than in the same elephant at other times;)

Well then you have to ask this simple logical question, if these guys have the ability to read the footprints of the professional money as they claim, what is preventing them from mortgaging their house, and trading 50/100 contracts on ES especially with the support of the Master , Tom Williams behind them. They have been marketing this stuff for over 7-10yrs, by this time, should have racked in millions, not bombarding every Tom, Dick and Harry on an ongoing basis with emails of promotions of their new software, seminars and VSA clubs.

Yes he has all the required qualities to be a great President , however he will have to harness the right support to implement his policies. Have been quite amazed to observe celebrations all over the world , Europe, Africa, even Japan, that shows he has been able to connect with all races not just the african americans. There is almost a tangible feeling of optimism and hope in the air amidst the doom and gloom of the credit crisis, the honeymoon period can be short though as he gets down to the nitty-gritty.

Same problem in U.K, Gordon Brown recently accused opposition leader Cameron as being a novice who would have difficulty in handling the current crisis and that he was the most experienced, afterall he was at the helm for the past 10yr as chancellor. Well he has now clearly shown that he has all the experience of GETTING THINGS WRONG :doh: There were no regulations in place for the banks who got into mess here by getting tangled up with the toxic subprime mortgage packages in US, unbridled greed ran rampant in the city of London, and nobody has been held accountable, the taxpayers have been forced to bail out the banks and shoulder the hefty mind boggling losses. Yesterday had a 1.5% rate cut which is only going to lead to inflation but Brown is already claiming victory over the crisis which as you say has just begun.

Well as you state McCain supports most of W's agenda, what does that indicate, that despite his experience and what has unfolded in Iraq, he has not learnt much. And then there is his choice of his running mate:crap:, she thought this was all a movie show, would not have been a surprise had she won to come up with a strategy to unleash her most secret and lethal weapons to take care of all terrorist problems i.e. resurrect Rambo to take care of Afghanistan problem, Robocop to address Iraq, Terminator for N.Korea and enlist who else but the help of the british agent Bond, James Bond to go in and blow up all nuclear installations in Iran:rofl: Obama may have been a novice to start with , however after 21 months of relentless, undivided attention of the nation and the world upon one individual and the gruelling drawn out campaign against battle heardened and experienced McCain and Hilary Clinton he certainly has emerged more experienced than most. His whole campaign was a masterpiece, dignity, poise, elegance and eloquence. He has displayed an unparalleled ability to inspire and now he has to show his ability to surround himself with the best of the talent available to address the problems facing US and the Globe. If he falters he is going to let down a lot of people all over the world who have been celebrating his victory, we will soon find out.

Quite amazing, latest from Reuters, even some tribal folks in India have been inspired. "Hundreds of tribal people beat drums, fired crackers and distributed sweets in eastern India Thursday to celebrate Barack Obama's victory as the first black U.S. president-elect. Tribals are among the poorest and most backward sections of Indian society and say they suffer racial discrimination in a country enjoying an economic boom in some areas. When news of Obama's triumph reached the state capital of Jharkhand, hundreds in traditional tribal dress thronged to a statue of Mahatma Gandhi, dancing and shouting slogans of optimism. "The victory of Obama in U.S. election is indication that racial discrimination will end in all forms," Ajay Tirkey, the president of a tribal organisation said. "This is a historical moment of the world that a black has been elected to president of most powerful country of the world. We hope even India will soon get a black president."

Well you have to give credit where it is due and acknowledge his ability to inspire with his oratory, afterall he has changed history against all odds especially with a middle name like "Hussein":) His speech embodied the best of any world leaders I have heard so far including Tony Blair, and Clinton, he could have given elocution lessons even to Martin Luther King:cool: Folks are expecting miracles and he certainly does not have a magic wand, however he does have a unique opportunity to assemble the right mixture of talent both from democrats and republicans to address the immense problems facing both US and the rest of the world. Who knows, the middle east nations may have more trust in him and in that respect he certainly can avert the growing nuclear threat from Iran. One can go on, but we just have to wait and see how the next 4yrs unfold, can only hope that he will be able to establish peace and harmony amongst nations and also amongst various races in US as well.

You reckon Obama at last may bring about some improvement in the status of the REAL NATIVE AMERICANS so called "indians" (poor sods got branded wrong in the first place as they have nothing to do with India;) and are now stuck in their reservations deprived of any dignity, self respect and motivation. Saw many white and black faces(ALL ULTIMATELY IMMIGRANTS) in the crowds in this election, no sight of any REAL GENUINE AMERICANS:)

On CME currency futures, do you feel there is enough liquidity to get fills without much slippage. Which pairs do you trade and on which timeframe.

Good to know that this simple setup can be observed and exploited on a consistent basis even in the forex market. In conjunction with some basic understanding of Wyckoff principles i.e buying and selling pressure via price/vol should provide further confidence and enhance trade management.

Would appreciate if you can illustrate with some realtime examples.

I received the quote from a trading colleague, so could not tell which part was yours. Still it is very pertinent and hope newcomers will take it on board

Blowfish, you certainly have had your fair share of these scams artists, I presume the chief wizard was either Socrates (Alber Labos) or that guy from Scotland who imitated Martin Cole's strategy and marketed as his own:) BTW we got an email from you friend, the one who simplifies trading, professional trader and VSA expert: Only one place left for the california summit so hurry: Vince Rowe, presenter at http://WWW.BIZRADIO.COM Interviewed Dr Gary Dayton and Gavin Holmes, CEO, TradeGuider International about tracking "Smart Money" using Volume Spread Analysis. Here these interviews (MP3 files) and then see an archived recording of Dr Gary Dayton giving bar by bar analysis of the e-Mini Dow using the Wyckoff Principles. The links to download these MP3 files are below, over 350,000 Podcast downloads from Vince's show: Dr Gary Dayton - MP3 Files (Audio no video) http://www.tradeguider.com/gavin_webinar_files/gary1.mp3 (Please note that the first MP3 has 3 minutes of music at the beginning so you may wish to scroll in 3 minutes) http://www.tradeguider.com/gavin_webinar_files/gary2.mp3 http://www.tradeguider.com/gavin_webinar_files/gary3.mp3 http://www.tradeguider.com/gavin_webinar_files/gary4.mp3 Gavin Holmes - MP3 Files (Audio no video) http://www.tradeguider.com/gavin_webinar_files/gavin1.mp3'>http://www.tradeguider.com/gavin_webinar_files/gavin1.mp3 http://www.tradeguider.com/gavin_webinar_files/gavin2.mp3 http://www.tradeguider.com/gavin_webinar_files/gavin3.mp3 http://www.tradeguider.com/gavin_webinar_files/gavin1.mp3 Webinar Archive (Audio and Video) TradeGuider presents Wykoffian trader Dr Gary Dayton who will be explaining how he trades the e-Mini Futures using Volume Spread Analysis and Dr Harvey Loomstein who will be discussing how Volume Spread Analysis lifts the fog off the market so you can see the intention of the composite operator, in any timeframe. The Archive is viewed as a Windows Media Player File: Archive URL: http://www.tradeguider.com/gavin_webinar_files/dallas.wmv Special Announcement TradeGuider has had a late cancellation for our sold out event in San Francsico, we have one place remaining, so to find out more and book your place go to http://www.tradeguider.com/sf or contact Darren at the email below. To book your one to one online consultation and demonstration of TradeGuider please email Darren at darrenh@tradeguider.com and include your name, phone number and convenient time to call. Good Trading, The TradeGuider Team

Let me get right: Wed : 22nd was a sell day, there was high to low, market fell substantially, Hence as per TT the next day Thursday is a Buy Day, so look for penetration or violation of low of wed ie. sell day. Thursday 23rd , market did go down to 860 albeit late in the afternoon before rallying over 50pts Today should be a sell day, which is what is happening right now, prices have come back to 860 It is likey we could see another rally today as we have been knocking at this levels a few times now, will see if support holds;)

Well has turned out to be quite interesting, despite that high open on the globex, the market did go down to attempt a violation of the previous low but turned straight up before reaching 880. As I said TT concepts are certainly of some use, however timing entry etc is another ball game.

Think there are enough posts advising against getting involved with this smart/dumb money crap and studying pure price action regardless of who is doing what. Once again go to the Wyckoff forum threads, read Dbphoenix's blog, study the posts there, enough material in there to get you on the right track as all the info. presented originates from the original source ie. Wyckoff not from any jargon riddled derivative. However if you are determined to get into the quagmire of jargon and professional/dumb money, that so be it. The choice is entirely yours;)

Trading Wisdom of Vadym Graifer: Although he talks about stocks , it is equally applicable to all markets. IDENTIFICATION OF TRADING OPPORTUNITIES The first stage is identifying the basket of stocks to watch. Two major criteria should be applied: (1) Activity and (2) Setup. You want to go where activity is, and this leads you to watching pre-market gaps and volume. Next step is to identify the type of action. This is very important because the action might be such that you never see any familiar setup that would give you a reasonable trade. There are plenty of movements that we can't utilize to any "trading" extent as opposed to "gambling" extent. In other words, if you put on the trade because you see the setup, you are trading. But if you just go for the action without seeing a setup, you are gambling. You might lose on "trading" trade and you might win on "gambling" trade, but in the long run you will lose if you go for pure action without any attempts to identify the setup. When the trade shows a familiar situation, that's where you get probabilities on your side. You will often sit and wait in spite of the fact that there are plenty of hot movers around. But you have to ignore everything that moves in a way that doesn’t allow you to read the movement within your system. (A bit more complicated is trying to find a situation which might create an opportunity but the activity isn't there yet. Doing this you have to determine your stop point in advance, in case the action never occurs or the stock does the opposite to what the setup prescribes.) After (1) spotting the activity and (2) identifying the type of activity comes (3) defining scenarios in terms of IF - THEN. You see, for instance, a stock approaching the higher limit of the range and your setup is buying the breakout because you identified the trend of the stock as an uptrend and are going to buy the high, going with the trend. Your set of scenarios: (these are just examples, not a description of the strategy) Buying at 20 - I buy IF pullback to 19 5/8 THEN I get stopped out because 11/16 was the support on last pullback. IF movement over 20 THEN I move my stop to 19 3/4 because stock shouldn't drop that far if it's really strong. IF stock moves to 20 3/8 THEN I move my stop to breakeven. IF stock moves over 20 5/8 THEN I sell half and move stop to 20 1/4 on remaining half. IF stock moves up too fast on big volume THEN I sell entire position. Note that the scenarios are built in such a way that any kind of market action triggers one of your reactions. It goes in accordance with our general approach: let the market tell you what to do. After your set of scenarios is done, you have pretty much "programmed" your behavior and they become your psychological support. You have already predetermined your stop level and assumed the risk, so if the stock acts nasty, you’re not caught off guard; it's merely one of your scenarios. Knowing that you were not trying to predict anything, you take it calmly. If the stock goes in your favor, you know what to do next and there is no room for overexcitement and all those "Go ABCD!!!" which show unprofessionalism. Rather, another set of scenarios kicks in, moving your stop up and selling of half of your shares as you secure your profit, or selling it in full if you are a scalper or if the trade was intended as a scalp from the very beginning. After the trade is closed, you get back to monitoring and looking for activity. A full cycle is completed and now it's time for a new cycle. As a daytrader, you spend much more time on the sidelines, waiting for the right opportunity to present itself. You are filtering out everything that: 1. Doesn't fit your risk criteria. 2. Moves in a way that doesn't allow you to identify a familiar setup. 3. Sets up but still doesn't trigger the trade. This means that, for example, AMZN goes to 32 1/2 where it should be a short but selling never hits this level. Therefore, the trade is not triggered. Either we see the setup or we let it go. Trading outside of a setup is gambling. This programming of your action is very important as it brings structure to what would otherwise be chaos. You structure your own behavior putting some kind of algorithm in it. Eventually, that is what disciplines you and creates a favorable environment for getting rid of emotional imbalances. When you act within predetermined scenarios, you don't let actions trigger your ego. Ego raises its head when you expect the stock to do something, and it does the opposite. If you don't expect anything but are ready for any turn of events, nothing wakes the ego. Attempts to jump on everything that moves leads to inevitable frustration as stocks act randomly for a trader doing this. They can't act any different because he looks at them randomly, so he takes the trades randomly. As soon as the trader has formed a system of setups and scenarios, where the setup is the trigger for the action and the scenario is the algorithm of the action, his behavior ceases to be chaotic and moves from gambling to trading. The "setup", in other words, is not manufactured by some guru, nor does it have a cute name, unless you choose to give it one. The setup is rather a set of circumstances which you define which triggers an entry. It's up to you to impose order on the data stream; to -- in the context of this thread -- find those markers of buying and selling interest, buying and selling pressure, buying and selling exhaustion; test them to determine whether they show a higher probability of trading success than a random entry; decide exactly what it is you want to see before entering a trade. That's your "setup".

Do you take into the globex action. On Tuesday the high on the day session was 986, whereas Monday's high was 992.75, so there was no high violation in that respect. Also how would you handle today's action, with the price gapped down at the opening? Illustration with charts would be helpful

Thanks elovemer, hope you keep the analysis going forward, TT method certainly has conceptual advantages, wonder what are your thoughts on POST 205 by Frank. It would certainly be great to have input from him and WHY? on an ongoing basis.

Interesting charts, comments on the "mid" would be appreciated. Requested "WHY" who also has a sound grasp of TT method to keep this thread alive, nothing from him as yet. The ES is down on the globex some 15pts of yesterday's close, if there is a gap down on the day session, then it should set up a power buy prior to the sell. Well lets see how it pans out.

For a start it is crucial to understand indicators are derived from price and are not strategies but can form a part of a particular strategy. So if you want to trade a liquid market such as ESmini on an intraday basis or even on daily or weekly basis, first learn to study price action and in this respect, the info. on the Wyckoff forum is invaluable AND FREE, then proceed to candlestick corner where some simple setups are illustrated . Learn this, experiment with them , learn to recognise these in realtime and apply what has been taught on price action in the Wyckoff forum. Do not chase expensive seminars, software and gurus and throw away your hard earned savings. AND MOST IMPORTANTLY KEEP AWAY FROM JARGON. Hope this helps

Could you put up some charts and illustrate, it will lot easier that way.

Have read some of your posts on the Taylor thread, very informative, wonder if you would attempt to keep it alive, am sure many would appreciate your input.

Am afraid, nothing is going to "WORK" out nice all the time, it is a question of managing the trade. The move out of hinge does not have to be on dramatic vol, in the case illustrated, the price was rising on increasing vol i.e demand was overtaking supply, this allowed an entry and facilitated to a move of the stop to breakeven quickly and as Db said, it could come back into the hinge and stop out the trade, then have to prepared to reenter and that could be tough mentally:) BTW Db did you trade this hinge on Nasdaq on Friday 17th Oct, the chart posted is a 5min chart. If so could you comment on your entry and trade management.