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Bearbull

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Everything posted by Bearbull

  1. Bearbull
    Market Wizards: Top traders have acheived that mindset, having resolved conflicting beliefs, that is why there are so few of them, we hardly hear about them. Mark Douglas book should be enough, one can overdo this psychology/emotional thing, there is no such state as emotional-free mind, what is required is VALID knowledge which will dispel ignorance and generate confidence which in turn with experience will take of the emotional issues. As for watching tick or 1min chart, it is not necessary to stare at the computer whole day, that will fry up the brain within an hour, put up 15min , 5min charts, mark the support/resistance zones and monitor what happens when price approaches/touches these zones. and then guage the reaction via vol etc. There is no need to inject meaning into every tick price and tick vol. That is the pure Wyckoff Way , remember VSA is derived from that fundamental source, the Laws of Supply/Demand, Effor/Result, Cause/Effect remain unchanged regardless of any cutesy names via VSA such as Palm tree in Alaska or Polar Bear in Florida.
  2. Bearbull
    Rodney, those are great questions for Db with equally logical response which is worth taking note of as it is based on pure Wyckoff training, not the one via SMI Wyckoff. As for the humanity being "hard-wired" and all that , what bearing has that got with what the market is trying to tell you. That is why Mark Douglas has highlighted these issues regarding personal bais, attitudes in "Trading in the Zone", IMO the only book one would ever need on trading psychology, how the trading environment is unqiue, based solely on uncertainty and probabilities, unlike any other profession on earth. and that it is imperative to train and learn to read the information that the market is giving out moment to moment on a continuous tick basis(there are no open, high, low , closes in this flow) via buying and selling pressure.
  3. Bearbull
    Good question, having posed that myself, in the final analysis it is irrelevant for even if 50 folks typed in yes, how can it be verified. However it is highly relevant if a vendor is attempting to extract money from you by teaching market secrets that only he or she is able to read in realtime. As for these discussions on Wyckoff /VSA all that is required is to gather the info., analyse , gather what is pertinent to your trading and check the validity of the setups in realtime on your own charts, if not discard them, move on, no harm done except some ego clashes which happens in any job.
  4. Bearbull
    Thank you so much for the enlightenment on VSA, I borrowed the charts from a colleague who uses TG to illustrate what Db was trying to explain. I do not trade via VSA signals, period, have enough Wyckoff sense to realise that no holy grail exists outside of ourself;)
  5. Bearbull
    Some charts to illustrate your point: 1. Basic upthrust : sign of weakness is it not? TG signal afterall, ideal place for short, chart 1 2. Dogs did not bark chart 2, again End of Rising Market on huge vol, bar closing in the middle, supply swamping demand, short again???? 3. chart 3, wrong again.
  6. Bearbull
    Looks like you are beginning to see the light. Focussing on individual bars which is what most do with VSA, not through their own fault, at TG you have the statements like "markets do not like upbars on high vol etc" repeated so many times without reference to context it can be very misleading. Now watch the video post 456 by Sebastian of his buddy, upbar on high vol right at the previous swing high resistance, note the comments, "The market wants to go up" 2 opposing views. Yesterday we had a huge gap down on all indices, strength came in at the outset (remembering that the pros. have info. on all orders in the cash market and place themselves accordingly in the futures), rapid mark up in price, public also tend to join in, the pros are aware of that, they take their profits and also drive the prices down sharply to shake off the longs, hence that upthrust after 7-8min from the open, clearly visible on the 1min illustrated by Dbphoenix. Selling then dwindles off in preparation for further mark up, i.e buying and selling waves, pure Wyckoff. Taken in isolation the 2nd bar would like like upthrust and a weak signal but it is in the wrong place, we have strength in background, not weakness;)
  7. Bearbull
    AND WHY SHOULD HE? Would you do it if you could regularly pull in 4-6 in your class each paying 5k+ & 1k for ongoing 90min sessions. Wellcome to the world of magic and illusion:)
  8. Bearbull
    Excellent Effort Frank, keep it coming, as SoulTrader has illustrated the MP concepts can be blended with those of Wyckoff to provide that extra edge in trading so any further explanation of MP can only lead to clearer understanding.
  9. Bearbull
    rodney, I am not sure if there is any more value in "Undeclared Secrets...." per se, the basic concepts and principles remain unchanged , you would be better of reading more Wyckoff. Also there is enough archived material at: http://www.ltg-trading.com/archives.htm to learn from, study their charts, there is no need whatsoever to subscribe to their services.
  10. Bearbull
    "pooh-pooh VSA" Whatever gave you that idea. Infact have the highest respect for Tom Williams who made a great effort over 10yrs back to reveal all the market manipulation in his "Undeclared Secrets........." and attempted to incorporate those concepts in computer program, however he is not a businessman and the VSA program remained in doldrums for a long time until Gavin came on the scene, glossed it up as Tradeguider, jacked up the price some 4time the original and commenced the US operation. The software is packed full with glitches and has not been upgraded in the past 4-5yrs although all along promises have been made. My intent has been to highlight the fact that there is enough material on Price/Vol, VSA in these forums and in the numerous highly informative threads by Dbphoenix elsewhere (also from relatively inexpensive books , Justin Mamis, Marcel Link, Lukeman, Vadym Graifer) for anybody to learn and with hard graft, come up with setups/Strategy/tactics, test them out thoroughtly in realtime and then apply with consistency and discipline, there is absolutely no need to throw away their hard earned cash on expensive software or private tutoring. Many of these live private tutoring classes are by those who have mastered the art of creating illusion , make general remarks on expectations where price would go, same time continue babbling on previous support/resistance, the mouse continuously moving all over the chart, prices meantime move on, if it is in the desired direction claim the status of the all knowing messiah, if not point out why, the audience so much want to believe, they do not notice the illusion;) very similar to those Psychic (clairvoyant, contacting the dead etc) shows you see on the TV;)
  11. Bearbull
    Thanks, glad to know you will be presenting similar videos at the weekend seminars in April, hope you will include in detail both, those that were productive and those which were not(based entirely on VSA), because with all the modern technology, it is relatively simple to record live price action, audio on it in hindsight and broadcast selectively......... previously(not by you) chart examples on indicators were similarly exhibited during webinars and prior to that countless books have been published with ideal examples of RSI, CCI, MaCD divergence etc.............They all conveniently forget to mention or include those instances in which their setups, indicators, patterns etc totally failed thus reflecting the ultimate truth about the market i.e its probabilistic nature.... Unfortunately with TG seminars, there is the usualy mandatory Gavin gabble, then onto extolling the virtues of VSA, only to observe 15min/30min later the price bars on a chart gradually disappear in the background as various indicators are added on, Diamond Stops, H Stops, VSA indicators with red, green rectangles and triangles, trend indicators with more triangles, fib levels, pivot levels, trendlines, trend channels and ofcourse those famous TREND CLUSTERS blue splashes all over the chart, not forgetting the ref. to the volume thermometer, the volume bars with psychedelic bands Then the rollercoaster ride as the charts are flicked back and forth from 240min through to 3min via 120/60/30/15 . How much difference is made to the 240min or 120min chart once a trade is taken on a 3min chart.....
  12. Bearbull
    Sorry Sebastian, my question to your video was on Post 442
  13. Bearbull
    Once again would appreciate your response in ref: to your video on post 430 what was your reason, thought process of taking a short , as there was no audio, hence the question. Ref: post 432
  14. Bearbull
    1. The question was directed to Sebastian in regards to his video on Post 430 and as to what was his thought process/reasoning on taking a short on an upbar at that particular price location was. (my post 442) 2. Post 443 was intended to expand on that via a dialogue with sebastian once he responded with his take on his trade , this has not materialised. Instead the focus has been on post 443. In a typical strong downtrend or uptrend, one encounters wide range bars on high vol and hammers , inverted hammers also on high vol, in VSA jargon these translate into sign of strength or sign of weakness and if you listen to the archived videos in TG, has been the main point of confusion, how to know when it is selling or buying climax. There are countless setups where with one of this hammers on high vol, there has been the low vol tests as a signal to go long, only to watch the prices plough through the support of the low of the hammer, the setup has to be in the right context, not anywhere on the chart, . 3. Know enough about Wyckoff to state that VSA or any other price/vol tutuoring is merely an offshoot of the central concepts/principles of Wyckoff. 4. You obviously are well enlightened but I know quite a few traders who have difficulty with what I have just outlined 5. Once again the post 443 was meant for a discussion with Sebastian in ref. to his post of 430. I do not take trades via any hammer or hanging man. 6. Attached reveals with great clarity that not all hammers or inverted hammers are made equal and one does require anybody's rules of something engulfing something else to take the trade. Reading the price action i.e in this case clear price rejection at a significant price level, and in the context of the prior price action led to a 10pt move in ER. and that is my style of trading, period.
  15. Bearbull
    It would be greatly appreciate if you would take the trouble to illustrate how MP concepts aided your trading on Friday.
  16. Bearbull
    Realise this is on a simulation platform, but where would your stop loss would be on these trades and exit strategy i.e target
  17. Bearbull
    Sebastian, Here is another example of strength showing on 3min, TG most likely would flash up the green indicator as well, many would go long, however once the price action is viewed on a 1min time frame, what comes to light are the true intentions of the market, prices have not found support as yet and hence not ready to turn up i.e B- buying pressure has evaporated. Comments please
  18. Bearbull
    Interesting trade, taking a short on an upbar on high vol, presume your reasoning was that the prices had just broken down from a congestion area, and then the prices were reversed , those who shorted had to run for cover, normally after this a No demand bar appears on smaller time frames, which as per the VSA is the ideal place to short. here is 1min chart perhaps you have some comments.
  19. Bearbull
    This is a crucial concept DB, would it possible for you to dig up a pattern on your own chart to illustrate ' realise you trade NASDAQ but that should not be a problem to elucidate the concept.
  20. Bearbull
    Yes Dax does require wider stops and can at times be very volatile, however if you learn to identify the recurring patterns and time your entries etc, it can be managed in time. How do you find FTSE, tried it many years back but found the market lacked liquidity and was too spikey. Any comments of the Stoxx, appears to have enough liquidity, however am not comfortable with the charts. guess it is a matter of getting used to the instrument.
  21. Bearbull
    Greatly appreciate your response, It is going to clarify the situation for a lot of folks here and I will certainly pass on the info. to some of my colleagues who have shown interest in the symposiums. Think vast majority who attend would have some background into price/vol, VSA etc, as there have been countless seminars, webinars (archived as well on TG website) and for a while the book MTM by Tom Williams was available on the internet for a download. Hence you will find that there will be major interest now in how to trade with VSA principles. Fine the basics can be covered in the first session, but then it imperative to get into the nitty-gritty of real trading for you can see that here we are now into VSAII thread, the previous being over 150pages and still no clarity unlike what you get from reading and studying Wyckoff. So pleased to learn that you will be doing just that, infact I would like 75% of your presentation slanted towards that. You could also advise your co-presenters the same, Psychology lectures are fine, if kept short and to the point but as pointed out before, incentive to apply discipline to trading can only be generated after one has gained confidence in understanding what the market is telling based on VSA principles otherwise prolonged lecturing on discipline etc is pointless, for the question will come: Discipline and being consistent in Doing what...............??????
  22. Bearbull
    This examples also highlights the difference between s/r levels exhibited by the market v/s the calculated pivots. Yesterday's last hour short covering established the 1321 region as support . That zone once broken is now acting as resistance 1320-21
  23. Bearbull
    Upthrusts are great after prices have risen and climaxed i.e background weakness Here the market has just gapped down to yesterday's low and reversed on the 2nd bar ie. buying pressure, the upthrust here is out of context as there is background strength, the bootcamp guys call this Palm tree in Alaska or Polar Bear in Hawaii, doesn't belong there.
  24. Bearbull
    Eiger, you did great, no need to beat up yourself, you managed to identify the entries and pulled the trigger, that in itself is some achievement. You do not need home runs, increase contract size and aim for fixed points. Also have a look at other markets which are less spikey, NQ, Russell for instance.
  25. Bearbull
    Tradeguider at its very core has VSA programming built into it, that is why Tom hired a programmer in the first place to see if his VSA principles could be computerized. There is no question of reps. of the company, they are all a team , have their photos on their website together for the symposiums. Todd was supposed to be the expert besides Tom , since he left, Sebastian has returned and now he is the resident expert with Tom, and since he is going to be the main presenter as far as teaching VSA is concerned , he should be well placed to respond to the question, wouldn't you say;)
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