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cowseathay
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Everything posted by cowseathay
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Update to my previous chart. I'm using a chart of spot Nasdaq-100 (RTH session) instead of NQ futures because of rollover messing up the continuity of the chart. Whereas the NQ chart was a volume-based chart, this is a 30-min price chart. However, the result is practically the same. If NQ can get above 1250 then it could head to 1280 and then 1300 where there is some big R from the midpoint of the large consolidation from 10/06/08 to 11/10/08. It's already at R right now, so if it fails to break above then I think it is going to go back into the range from last week and possibly head lower from here on. All imo of course.
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An update to my previous chart.
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Here's my rendition of Db's support and resistance boxes on the NQ. I think that if NQ can get above the midpoint of the congestion from 11/6 to 11/11 (around 1250-1260) then it could go up to 1280.
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Thanks for the great post atto. This may be off-topic, but where is the entry?
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Topic Of The Month October, 2008
cowseathay replied to Soultrader's topic in Announcements and Support
I found this post on "The Selling Climax" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month October, 2008" -
Very insightful, thanks for the post db. So if I'm understanding this correctly, it seems like we are at the major market bottom and the rally on Monday is not just a "snapback rally" but a rally driven by strong demand. If this is true, is it expected that there will be a (long) period of consolidation before prices start going higher? Thanks.
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Thanks for that insight gammajammer. I'm wondering though, if price moved then there had to be trades going through to move it right? Maybe it didn't happen through EBS but someone else? Or maybe it happened through EURUSD and USDCHF and reflected as just a price movement EURCHF? Your thoughts?
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Thanks for your reply Db. I think its a really good idea to ask these questions that you mention, I will keep it in mind. Another question that I ask myself when looking at the price-volume relationship is something I picked up from your other posts: what was the result (in price movement) of this particular effort (amount of trading activity)?
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Thanks once again for your helpful reply Db, much appreciated. I knew I was focusing too much on individual bars and I understand what you are saying about focusing on price movement, it's just a matter of getting myself to perceive the activity in this way. Your analysis of what happened makes perfect sense to me when I read it, I just wish I could be able to do the same in real-time but I know it will take time and practice. I'm uploading a 5s chart of the Euro with a box around the time you mentioned and I think it was a springboard (it looks like a hinge):
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I have another question about the same thing. I'm attaching today's chart of the Euro, 3-minute, 1-minute and also an updated 240-minute if anyone is interested in the big picture. In the 3 minute chart you can see how around 3:00 price sold off at R (red line) and you can see the long tails indicating a good chance of reversal. Around 4:30 you can see how price tested R again and see that it reversed. What db said applies directly to this price action (I believe), as price stopped right at R and if you look at a 1-minute chart at this time (which I have not posted) then you can see price tested R again after 2 bars but sold off and closed much lower showing a good sized tail, which might be a good place to go short. Now, if you look at the place where I have put a red arrow in the 3 minute chart you can see how price stopped at R again but it closed higher than the red R line and also higher than the prior swing high at 4:30. My question is would you consider this as price having broken R or stopped at R since it still closed below the high of the bar at 2:45 (around 157.91, visible as a long tail). Furthermore price then heads lower in the next bar perhaps signfiying that it has stopped at R and is now retracing. The reason I feel this is important is because whether or not one classifies this as a break thru R or a stop at R determines whether one should short or go long (near the blue arrow). Another related question is the place where i've put a yellow arrow. By now it is clear price has broken thru R, however it was sold off and closed below the high and you can see the tail in the bar. Then price sold off a bit further. Does this suggest selling pressure or should one just keep in mind that price broke R and the best thing to do now is to look for a long? I know I'm being very nit-picky and looking at individual bars and such but I'm just trying to get a decent grasp on all this so I would appreciate any help in this regard. I hope what I'm saying is clear, if it isn't please let me know and I will clarify. Thanks, CowsEatHay
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Wow, thanks for that explanation db. I didn't really think about the purpose behind the retracement like you mention, but what an insightful way to look at the market. Your explanation makes perfect sense. I just need to keep practicing and learning to perceive the markets in this way. CowsEatHay
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Thanks for your reply and explanation Bearbull. I see what you're saying but I was actually referring to the reversal to the downside that happened after 12:23. Sorry if I wasn't clearer. And also, I have been and continue to study Db's threads and his blog and am trying to assimilate his insightful presentation of Wyckoff's methods but I know I have a long way to go. It's easier studying it in hindsight than applying it in real time but I know it just takes a lot of practice as with any other endeavor. CowsEatHay
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Thanks for your reply Bearbull. I understand that had a long been taken, I could exit at the break of the TL. However, I was wondering if there were any clues in the price-volume relationship that would preclude taking the long in the first place?
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Just for further context, I'm also posting another chart of the euro of a much larger timeframe for a bigger picture view. Thanks, CowsEatHay
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Hi, I am a novice to Wyckoff and am trying to learn and apply his principles. Often I have trouble telling a retracement from a reversal and I want to post a chart of the Euro from today to illustrate my problem. I'm posting the one minute chart and also the five minute chart for context. Around 12:20 price started breaking out of resistance with great volume and pace. Around 12:23 the price and volume action was indicating (to me) a potential buying climax (the volume peaked). Another clue was that price stopped at a well established resistance from earlier in the day and from last week. Then it began retracing and after a few bars the first up bar came about with what seemed to me like good buying pressure (for one, the volume was higher than the prior down bars). However price turned around and started going lower and you can see what happened. But it never went back up to test the high that was just made, and instead just kept going slowly lower. There was even a large volume bar around 13:00 in which the price went higher which I thought could be the buying pressure coming back in but then price kind of died out and started grinding lower and lower. I'm just wondering, were there any clues that that there was not going to be a complete retracement and that price is instead reversing? Or am I just thinking too deeply into it and should just accept that the trade didn't work? Any help is greatly appreciated. Thank you, CowsEatHay