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cowseathay
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Everything posted by cowseathay
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Holy shit, you are still alive! Great news.
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Click here for super large version. .
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I found this post on "Re: What Would Have Been a Good Way to Trade Today (monday 7/27)" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month July, 2009"
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I asked a very similar question a year ago at the Wyckoff Forum and I found many insightful answers from that thread. I would suggest you take a look and see if it answers your questions: Retracement Vs. Reversal. Specifically, the following reply from DbPhoenix in that thread may be the most helpful to you (as it was to me).
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Re-uploaded the images, it should work now.
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Sure, no problem. Done.
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I thought today was a great day to see many of the Wyckoff concepts in action in a very clear way. I'm attaching a 5s and 1M chart of the NQ from this morning pointing out a few key clues to the beginning of the giant reversal that occurred. And all of these clues were pointed out in real time in chat by Db, atto and others. You can see that with each potential selling climax price drops sharply with a dramatic increase in volume. The final climax that occurred didn't seem to have any big volume bar, but a lot of volume occurred in a small period of time, which you may not pick up if you were following bar by bar. Also, note that the final climaxes and shakeout occurred at support (or right below), which signals a much higher chance of a reversal than if they occurred in the middle of nowhere. You can also see lower volume on the test, and then large volume during the shakeout followed by rapid price reversal. The job of a shakeout is to get rid of "weak hands" so that a new move could be started. And as you can see that job was accomplished with great success.
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I thought today was a great day to see many of the Wyckoff concepts in action in a very clear way. I'm attaching a 5s and 1M chart of the NQ from this morning pointing out a few key clues to the beginning of the giant reversal that occurred. And all of these clues were pointed out in real time in chat by Db, atto and others. You can see that with each potential selling climax price drops sharply with a dramatic increase in volume. The final climax that occurred didn't seem to have any big volume bar, but a lot of volume occurred in a small period of time, which you may not pick up if you were following bar by bar. Also, note that the final climaxes and shakeout occurred at support (or right below), which signals a much higher chance of a reversal than if they occurred in the middle of nowhere. You can also see lower volume on the test, and then large volume during the shakeout followed by rapid price reversal. The job of a shakeout is to get rid of "weak hands" so that a new move could be started. And as you can see that job was accomplished with great success. If I've made any mistakes please let me know and I'll correct it.
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I think I see a potential hinge/coil in the DAX Future in the one hour chart. Volume seems to be diminishing, the hinge seems to be "filled with price" and the ranges are getting smaller and smaller. Seems like it is poised for a breakout.
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I found this post on "CouldaWouldaShoulda (The Wyckoff Forum)" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month June, 2009"
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Gold is near support that has held since February. A buy stop limit at 90 with a stop loss order at ~87 could be placed as a bounce-off-support trade. Potential problems: Gold is near resistance in the longer time frame (weekly), so even if it were to bounce off support again, it may not yield too many points unless a breakout occurs to the upside. Also, when price repeatedly gets rejected at an S or R level, there is a good chance that eventually it will just break, so we could see it breakdown below this 87 level and go into the value area I've highlighted. I'm a complete beginner to trading off daily charts, so any comments are appreciated. Thanks.
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Sustaining Focus and Concentration
cowseathay replied to evolved trader's topic in Trading Psychology
Hi Eiger, Thanks for that post. Could you possibly point me to some resources about mindfulness without all the mumbo jumbo--just in plain English? Also, if you still have the sources to the research about the cognitive activity with athletes, could you cite the articles here? Thanks a lot. -
Nice job FW. Let me know how dinner goes.
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I pointed this out in chat today and am not sure how much significance it has but NQ is currently exactly at the midpoint of the swing high started from February 10, 2009 (1284.25) to the swing low on March 9, 2009 (1038.50), which is approximately 1161. Here's what Wyckoff had to say about it: "...when a stock declines 10 points, a normal rally would be approximately one-half, or about 5 points. A smaller rally would indicate technical weakness and a rally greater than one-half would indicate technical strength." The chart has been adjusted for the June contract.
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Saturday Night Live: Don't Buy Stuff
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Hi Db, I was also looking at this level (1230) for a potential long. However, I passed on the trade because I had expected there to be more volume (climactic) coming in at 1230 holding the price up because I had identified 1230 as significant support. Instead it kind of resulted in a dull back and forth movement until price started grinding higher, and the volume, at least to me, did not signify a big shift in supply/demand. However, I'm still not very good at reading volume, so most likely I have misread what actually happened. I would greatly appreciate any feedback. I've attached the 5 second chart of what I was looking at. The line is a 1SMA as you recommended in chat. Thanks.
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Thank you Db. It's amazing to think that the same problems that plague traders today was dealt with so eloquently by Wyckoff almost a 100 years ago. By the way, you had mentioned in chat that you learned to use buy/sell stops to enter trades from Teresa Lo, but here it seems Wyckoff had suggested the same thing. It's interesting to know that it came from Wyckoff.
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Topic Of The Month January, 2009
cowseathay replied to Soultrader's topic in Announcements and Support
I found this post on "Re: All You Need... is a Chart" interesting and have nominated it accordingly for "Topic Of The Month January, 2009" -
Hi Gringo, I think that looks perfect. You can see we are right at support from that box from 2000 to end of 2003, hence probably why there is so much trading activity in this area now. Just my 2 cents.
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I have Head. atto also posted an oil chart in this thread as well, but it was a couple weeks ago and since then there has been some activity in the chart so I just wanted to see if my interpretation of it is correct and whether anyone else has any thoughts.
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I thought this oil chart looks interesting. As you can see, there is heavy volume at 30 and price is not moving very much at all. Lots of effort, very little result. Activity from both buyers and sellers is high but buyers are providing support because they are keeping price from falling (at least, for now). If on the other hand sellers end up overwhelming the buyers, then price could slide rather quickly because all those buyers who held up the price at 30 would have to cover. IMO. Any thoughts?
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Gotcha Db. I was just trying to point out that you don't need to focus on every single minor support or resistance if you don't want to, you can wait for price to get to the major levels and trade only those if you'd like.
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I just also wanted to point out that someone new to this might look at my chart and be confused by all the lines or may think there are too many. The reason I have so many lines is because I like to track even minor support and resistances, even if I am not looking to trade at these points, I would like to know whether these minor zones hold up price or cause a pause. Essentially, I like to know why price is doing what it's doing, even at a very small scale. However, there is no need to plot every single S&R line or box. It is perfectly acceptable to just plot the major S&R lines and trade using just those without worrying about the little wiggles that happen in between. This way, the chart is clean and you focus only on the points that really matter (i.e., in a large scale). I think this is how Db trades. Either way, just do whatever fits with your personality.
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So it's been a month since I posted my last boxes chart. Here is an update. As you can see, there was practically no change in the S&R levels provided by the boxes from my previous chart posted a month ago. Price reacted very strongly to just about every single level that was defined.
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Db, I would like to nominate your post for Post of the Year.