ramora

You might also want to look at snns. I used it a lot several years ago and found it very complete and well documented. The TDNN net was very powerful. I had purchased several commercial packages and ended up using SNNS instead. And it is free. Good luck. ramora Stuttgart Neural Network Simulator SNNS (Stuttgart Neural Network Simulator) is a software simulator for neural networks on Unix workstations developed at the Institute for Parallel and Distributed High Performance Systems (IPVR) at the University of Stuttgart. The goal of the SNNS project is to create an efficient and flexible simulation environment for research on and application of neural nets. The SNNS simulator consists of two main components: 1) simultor kernel written in C 2) graphical user interface under X11R4 or X11R5 The simulator kernel operates on the internal network data structures of the neural nets and performs all operations of learning and recall. It can also be used without the other parts as a C program embedded in custom applications. It supports arbitrary network topologies and, like RCS, supports the concept of sites. SNNS can be extended by the user with user defined activation functions, output functions, site functions and learning procedures, which are written as simple C programs and linked to the simulator kernel. Currently the following network architectures and learning procedures are included: * Backpropagation (BP) for feedforward networks o vanilla (online) BP o BP with momentum term and flat spot elimination o batch BP * Counterpropagation * Quickprop * Backpercolation 1 * RProp * Generalized radial basis functions (RBF) * ART1 * ART2 * ARTMAP * Cascade Correlation * Recurrent Cascade Correlation * Dynamic LVQ * Backpropagation through time (for recurrent networks) * Quickprop through time (for recurrent networks) * Self-organizing maps (Kohonen maps) * TDNN (time-delay networks) with Backpropagation * Jordan networks * Elman networks and extended hierarchical Elman networks * Associative Memory

I just downloaded a free iPhone application from Interactive Data: Products and Services: Desktop Solutions: Interactive Data Mobile They were QuoTrek in the past. The app is very well done and is free for delayed data and per-fee for real time streaming data. Good Trading!

I have been using a new product to take notes during the day. http://www.livescribe.com Livescribe is a large pen that writes on special note paper or notebooks that have pages with location information embedded as very small hard to see dots. As you write the pen movements are recorded in the 4GB ram on the pen. While you are writing you can also make audio notes that are recorded with the written notes. After the notes are written you can replay the audio notes by clicking on the written note. They have a desktop application that is used to upload notes to your desktop machine and play back your audio notes. You can also export pages as PDF file or as a 'pencast' that will show your ink notes being redrawn along with your audio comments. I am using one of their bound notebooks to record my daily trading journal entries and then upload a pdf file to my Google Group where I record all of my activity. Good trading!

I have an iphone and I use it to keep tack of the markets. Some of the applications on my phone include: 1. Bloomberg best news and charts 2. Forex OTG not bad charts 3. MobileRss - I subscribe to several blogs and news feeds 4. Oanda FXTrade (emergency backup in case internet goes down) 5. Interactive Brokers TWS Mobile (emergency backup in case internet goes down) 6. Tweetie - I follow several traders who 'tweete' a lot some news tweets are good for breaking news. (I do not trade news but like to follow the news.) I am also experimenting with Yahoo alerts and other services to receive price alerts. Another pet project is to get mobile VNC up and running so I can see my trading desktop via remote desktop. Mixed results so far. I am not always looking at my iphone, but if I am stuck somewhere waiting I can usually find something interesting going on. Also considering a purchase of an iPad, but I think the iPhone is just fine with the above apps and it is always with me. Good trading,

Thanks for the interesting thread... In the last two weeks I read "The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right" by Atul Gawande. My first impression was that this book is just too big; checklists are simple. Right? Gawande is on a mission to make the medical world less dangerous and he has done a fine job. He divides the activities we must complete with low error into those tasks that are: Simple Complicated Complex Gawande gives great examples on how extremely complex operations lasting several days in one case were accomplished via checklists. And, that as checklists have become standard practice the statistical results leave no doubt in its success. From my notes: Checklists help to distinguish between 'Right Knowledge' and 'Knowledge Application'. In building construction in the mid 20th century the 'Master Builder' would manage all of the general contractors and work out the details. Today, building construction is too complicated for a 'Master Builder' approach but must rely on computer checklists combined with 'feedback loops' to communicate schedule and detail changes in real time. Task Saturation: is one example that pilots have known from some time. Task tempo is so fast that missing a step may be fatal. Task Expertise: Some emergencies are so rare that you do not want to rely on stale training and flawed memory to execute. Task Change: When tasks change it is easier to republish a checklist than to retrain and educate the entire work force. He gave several examples of how the FAA will publish a safety change at it is proprogated throughout the airlines with hours. It is not an exception, but part of the process. Good checklists: 5 to 9 items Do not try to include everything Checklists are either 'Do Confirm' or 'Read Do' I have a 'start-up' checklist I use in the morning before the market opens and I can go through it faster than trying to remember if I have everything up and running without using a checklist. My evening 'preparation' checklist of news and market levels still needs more work. I have also formalized my 'Emergency Checklists' with broker phone numbers and placed the checklist and URLs on my iphone. I want to focus on trades instead of the mechanics of trading. Trading is a business: mistakes cost money and more importantly time. I recommend the book if you have any interest in checklists. Good Trading...

Attached is a VolumePrice list of terms. Some are outdated, and some new terms are missing. Send me a message with missing terms and I will try and keep it up to date if it is helpful. Good trading! ramora VolumePrice Lexicon.txt

My volume size > 2 refers to YM. ES would be a much larger number. My thought is to make sure that there are more buyers and sellers than just the small lot traders. Looking at the Time and Sales attachment, it is impossible for me to determine if I would have entered based on T&S by itself. What is the Object, is the container complete, what is the context? DepthOfMarket is 5 levels above and below, I am looking for a large number of 'patitent buyers' and 'patient sellers' and not just a few contracts trying to scalp in or out of a position. In November at TradersExpo I had a learning breakthrough watching Spyder explain how he steps through a day bar by bar without using any sub-bar 'fine' tools. I am using the fine tools only at 'end points' as they mean very little in the center of a tape or channel. I has spent 'a lot' of time with fine tools before understanding tape,traverse,channel and object, container, context which are more important. You can make a mistake with the fine tools and still make money if you have the sequence correct. You can not make money if you have the fine tools and ignore the sequence. Good trading.

Tams suggests that Pace/tempo should be "number of contracts traded * time" instead of "price * time". He is correct. Thank you Tams!

1. Yes, that would be correct. 2. Very sorry, should be Left Trend Line and Right Trend Line. I will be more careful. 3. Watch time and sales. If you time the number of contracts over 30 seconds you can get a sense of the tempo. I also plot a 9 bar EMA of volume so that I can see is volume is increasing or decreasing. 4. Looking at the major indexes we are at a turning point. I have no idea if the major indexes will break upward or down but the opportunity for short term trading will be excellent. Good Trading.

Something that has been very helpful to me is to 'differentiate' volume into 'velocity' and ''pace'. Velocity = price * distance. Pace (or tempo) = price * time. In many discussions such as the Jokari Window discussion that describes Prive and Volume there is no room for the importance of pace. At 'end points' either the LTL (Left Trend Line) or RTL (Right Trend Line) I want to see both Velocity and Pace slow or stop and then an increase in both Velocity and Pace before I can tell what the market is going to do. As Velocity and Pace approach zero your odds decrease to 50:50. Then the market will telegraphy a 'continuation' or 'change' message by increasing both velocity and pace at the same time. Low Pace/Low Velocity = undecided market and high risk. Low Pace/High Velocity = Bulls are Bears are standing aside and price is moving to S/R where it will be stopped. Might be a trade depending on how far away S/R (probably LTR or RTR) from your possible entry it is. Best to leave it alone and trade at the RTR. High Pace/Low Velocity = bulls and bears are fighting so stay away until the battle is decided one way or the other. Extremely high risk. High Pace/High Velocity = market has selected direction and losers are trapped and covering their position, new players entering quickly. Depending on container completion and context a possible trade. Volume by itself is not very helpful (IMHO) without knowing what effect the volume of contracts has on pace (or tempo). Use ProRata volume to help identify pace. Avoid trades where pace is less than X number of contracts per minute, or less than a moving average of volume. When the market slows to a halt and pace and velocity both seem to slow to a stop: get ready. In a thread discussing "Price Volume Relationship" I thought adding pace/tempo would be helpful. Just some thoughts on a lazy Saturday morning. Good trading! Enjoy the weekend as next week is going to be amazing. ramora

The decision will not show up in a screen shot of the bar chart. I am looking at Time&Sales, DepthOfMarket, and ProRataVol. I want to see Time&Sales happy ticking off trades with sizes > 2, DepthOfMarket with pending orders above and below the last trade, and ProRata Vol growing. If everything gets slow or stops I get out. Once I am in a trade, my attention is drawn away from bars to volume related tools until I move my stop to BE and asking how far to the left trend line and how long to I stay in this trade. Good Trading!

Yes, for a direction change from a short to a long R2R2R2B

In an email to Spyder I said I was having a very good month and he suggested I post to TL some thoughts... For what it is worth... I have a printout on my desk that is a condensed paraphrase of some of what I believe to be core concepts of Price/Volume trading. After reading thousands of posts on the subject the most helpful ideas are: "At some point a trader can recognise how to enter on the right trend line and exit on the left trend line. He may also see when trends begin and end at some point. Turns do not occur on ends of bars; they occur intrabar on a volume shift. This is neither on the right or left trend line." Other things that are helping include: 1. Wait for the container to complete. Even small containers should have identifiable 1-2-3. 2. Look for pt 2's that are outside the previous tape/channel and then wait for an increase in volume in the opposite direction. 3. Trade the volume; not the price. Dry up volume is easier to spot for me than increasing volume. Dry up volume after a pt2 is a gift; anticipate an increase in volume in the opposite direction of the last tape/channel. Don Bright has a saying, "If it is repeatable; it is beatable." A pt2 followed by dryup volume and then an increase in volume in the opposite direction is repeatable. 4. Ask 'what comes next'. Most of the time there are 2 choices. Some times, like dryup volume after a pt2, 1 alternative has much lower risk than the other. 5. I am focusing on 'end points'. What is price/volume doing at the LTR and RTL? In an online seminar a few years ago on Market Profile the host said "I do not want to trade in someone else's auction". He meant that he had a strategy and did not want to trade outside that strategy. With Price/Volume I want to trade at the RTL. I do not want to trade at the LTL as it is too tempting to 'chase price' and probably overbought or oversold. Also, I should already be in a trade at the LTL if volume has been increasing so LTL entries are late and high risk. My focus is RTL trades, everything else is 'someone else's auction'. 6. I am watching for dry up volume when I am in a trade and will exit in a second if volume disappears. Dry up volume is my test for a 'wash trade'. Good trading! ramora

I have an iphone and the trading apps I like for it are: Bloomberg iTWS from Interactive Brokers The basic iphone Stocks app is very good. Forex OTG (on the go) very good charts Oanda via Safari mobile user interface is good enough for an emergency trade... As apps become available for the Droid I will move to Android because Andriod OS is more open, can execute apps in the background, and can attach an external keyboard. If I were getting a new phone it would be a Droid. Good luck. ramora

From a 'psych consultant' marketing email received today.... Looks like somebody reads these threads!!

"Early morning hath gold in its mouth." Ben Franklin 'What makes the desert beautiful' said the little prince, 'is that somewhere it hides a well' Antoine De Saint Exupery "One must wait until the evening to see how splendid the day has been." Sophecles

Another good spreadsheet from wincalendar.com. This Excel spreadsheet uploads to Google docs so I can use it to keep a summary of results and major events, FOMC, rollover, etc. No need for Excel and it is always available via Google. 2010-Monthly-Calendar.xls

Pre-brief outline with details removed: ========= Pre-Brieft: Date MISSION OBJECTIVE: Target: System #1: System #2: System #3: Enemy: Impatience - lack of discipline MISSION SCENARIO: (How I think the day will go... Size and risk mostly) Template: SpeedDay -- StandardDay -- Simulator WEATHER & ENVIRONMENT: (Last market details any analysist reports, Macro stuff) Mar10 Last OHLC: 9:30pm HangSing 323 Nikkei 95 YM +6 THREATS & INTELLIGENCE: (Econ reports) Reports: 5:30 6:45 7:00 Nothing 7:30 Schedule: Stations: 0600 First Trade: 0645 Last Trade: 1245 Screen shots of traded markets with Pivot levels ================= Post-brief STEALTH: Date Set the stage - what happened? Trading System #1: Trading System #2: Trading System #3: No trades Tone - Attitude Pleasant: happy, pleased, content Unpleasant: miserable, troubled, unhappy Activated: Aroused, alert, hyperactivated Deactivated: sleepy, still quiet Unpleasant Activated distressed, upset, builty, scared, hostile, irritable, ashamed, nervous, jittery, afraid Pleasant Deactivated: relaxed, at rest, serene, calm, at ease Pleasant Activated: interested, excited, strong, enthusiastic, proud, inspired, determined, attentive, active Unpleasant Deactivated: tired, sluggish, droopy, dull, drowsy, bored Today was mostly: Pleasant Activated: rested, good exercise last night, energy high Execution vs Objective: Expectations Analyse Execution: Look at best and worst trades. Lessons Learned: Transfer Lessons Learned: High note: Very satisfied

I try and run trading as a business. At the very least it includes the overall business plan. What funds to use, risk, accounts, expected return, etc. etc. One of the best examples is in John Carter's book "Mastering the Trade". At one time he would send the business plan template if you asked for it by email Without that template think GOST: Goals Objectives Strategies Tactics Then the day to day execution: I like the book "Flawless Execution: Use the Techniques and Systems of America's Fighter Pilots to Perform at Your Peak" They have excellent templates for pre-brief and post-brief that I use. I have a written pre-brief and post-brief for 80% of the days I traded last year which is great to review my progress and helpful in planning next year. Each night I do the paperwork and print the docs to a pdf file that I email to a private google group. During the day I can look at price levels and charts that I am following. I can review my progress at any time from any computer including my iphone. I also use google docs to keep win/loss stats in an online spreadsheet. It is a paperless process, all records are on my private google group and backup with a email copy to another account. I hate the paperwork but trade better when it is done. Also the process alone prepares me for the next day. "Planning is more important than the plan." Its a business. Now I am preparing my 2010 goals and objectives. Good trading!

Spyder Drill Differentiation: 1st examine the object: Laterals without volume data I would say are equal - no bias. 2nd examine the container: Lateral 1 part of a faster dominant tape. - bias higher Lateral 2 & 3 are in a traverse from the dominant channel - bias higher Third lateral is after a pt2 has been closed above the second lateral - bias higher 3rd examine the context Time of day etc - no bias Up gap from previous day - bias higher

Hi Everyone, We have had some slow markets in the past few weeks. Does anything change in your approach to annotation as the market volume slows? I could make a case for changing the time frame for both ES and YM and using longer timed bars. Or drop down to faster bars. Is one change better than the other; or is annotation always the same regardless of the market movement? Thanks in advance for any comments. ramora

Thanks everyone for a great thread.... If you are using bid/ask delta don't you have a problem in fast markets? In a slow or average paced market you can calculate your delta by adding/subtracting the size of the trade to the previous accumulated volume. Fine, that looks great on the screen. However, in a market that is in a fast rally the ask price has moved up very quickly and the market order is filled at the bid which causes the delta calculation for this trade to be subtracted from previous accumulated volume. If a trade is filled at the ask is it always added to accumulated volume? Or, are there other considerations? Is it impossible for trading platforms to match a fill notification to where the bid/ask was then the trade was executed? All comments welcome! I hope I stated this correctly... Thanks

The charts look great. They do what you describe very well. However, one question does come to mind. You are using a very good moving average, possibly Jurik or T3, in your ES chart. Going to the work of calculating 24 different bias does not give you much of an advantage over simply using your tight moving average crossover. In cases where your bias indicator would make you money you could find a case where the tight Moving Average performed better in a trade. This is a question I have to ask over and over to myself. Complexity for the sake of complexity, or does the complexity help in the trading? I am sure you understand this question. The charts are impressive when posted. However, if you broke out a Jurik MA in a separate panel it would also appear very similar. So, my question, "does the 24 bias indicator perform better than a tight fitting MA such as Jurik or T3 (not SMA or EMA)"? I am asking because there are few people who would share their thoughts as you have. Thanks again,

Great post and screen shot! Since you are open to questions, what are the 24 inputs that created that screen? Thank you again for all of your posts.

I created a Google Group that is private. Each evening I create my 'pre-market' plan for the next day and email it to the private group. At the end of the day I create a summary of the day's actions along with important screen shots and email it to the same Group. Each day has one thread on the Group and usually several posts, the pre-brief, post-market summary, and other comments. The group is sorted by the date title and I can read it from any browser. I also upload pdf files of articles and notes that I may want to reference while traveling. Take a look at Google, Documents both text editor and Spreadsheets, and consider using Google Groups (make sure you mark it private by invite only) for your Journal. Good Trading!