MightyMouse

Looks like a great curve. I assume you are starting with 5k?

Trading lessons cost money

Blowfish, Luck enters the equation before you place your first trade. Your tiny little edge has to continue to be a tiny little edge in the future. You have zero control over that or anything else that happens in the future. It could be that the edge you found, stops being an edge altogether and it could be that your edge performs even better than you thought. You simply do not have control over that. If you did have control over the performance, the CIA, Mossad, and the Vatican would all want to speak to you. At the end of the day, it is going to take 15% per year compounded annually to turn 5k into 100k. Most successful traders do not peform at that level. I guess 15% sounds too low for most, but it is all relative.

The nice guy in me wants to help an individual who is being lead astray. But, in the end, trading lessons cost real money.

Thales, My mind is such that when I have a string of awesome trades, I know that luck plays a major part in my achieving those results. I can only hope that I continue to be be in the right time at the right place for my next trade. Is this a crooked line? I look at the returns of CTAs. The better ones seem to be able to achieve 20% returns on average. I use that as a guide to compare my results. And, I might be wrong, but i think that the best of the group, were more fortunate than the rest of the bunch to be in the right place at the right time. Is this a crooked line? Am I on a crooked line because I don't think like everyone else? I guess so. I am making money so I'll just continue doing things the wrong way.

If the 5k is all you have, you should treat it like its a million. But, people learn at different rates which is why you consider this an argument in the first place.

Simply stating that luck has a lot to do with extraordinary gains is not negative unless you think that needing to be lucky to make a lot of money in a short period of time is negative, then it is negative for you, but not for me. I am one of the few people on this thread that believe the goal can be achieved in spite of the fact that most traders have dropped out. In fact, I know that in time someone will do it. If you think being realistic about trading results is negative, then I don't know what to say. Turning 5k into 100k can be done it is simply very hard to do. It is even harder when you put a time constraint of 1 year onto the accomplishment of the goal. If you can demonstrate the ability to turn 5k into 100k in 20 years, you will get you a top trading job at any of the major investment banking firms or hedge funds. They would kill each other to hire you since most of their traders do not come close to the annual return they would have to consistently do to turn 5k into 100k in 20 years. 15% per year is an awesome return and would put you in the top .1% of all traders. If the prospects of making "only" 15% does not seem lucrative to you, then you should probably find something else to do. It could certainly be a lot worse than 15% too and it is for most.

Turning 5K into 100k in anything less than 20-25 years is without doubt a result of extraordinary luck. Luck has a lot to do with achieving an unequal distribution of high positive returns. Embrace it. Don't reject it because you are going to need it.

Thales, I felt uncomfortable and out of character when I typed it. I apologize. I will try to be more consistently miserable. MM

If this thread started with 1000 traders with +-$2000 accounts and each took trades opposite to the next guy, and stayed in the trade until one of their accounts was drained to zero, the the feat of a trader reaching $1 million would be achieved in approx. 10 trades or less. There would be only one trader who achieves the goal. But, the goal would be achieved with absolute certainty. The only unknown would be who that winning trader would be.

It is very hard to do, but you are 1000% wrong when you say it cannot be done.

A plain plan for failure. I love the part where he says the less you attempt new trades, the less risk you expose yourself to. Brilliant! Don't trade and you can't lose.

Sure. Bad trading takes the best and worst capitalized traders out of trading; however, not having enough capital will keep the best traders from trading since they need to apply their time to other endeavors to meet expenses. Good traders know what to expect from a market and know they can't earn an income if they do not have enough capital.

It could be one of the reasons for some. The main reason traders fail is that they set unrealistic goals for the capital they have. Basically, undercapitalized.

It doesn't apply to the general population of traders. A trader who is not trying to solicit funds or fees, can lie all he wants, and doesn't need to disclose anything.

Tj, As an FYI, your shameless plugs, display of equity curves, and etc. you wish to share are securities law violations without the proper disclosure and adherence to protocol. Also, you may want to edit your post and clean up some of the really obvious BS and accidental contradictions. Review the posts of other vendors who are more experienced at plugging themselves. I think you might pick up a tip or two learning some of subtleties of their approaches. For example, a lot of people here are going to struggle with the idea that you are so dedicated to making your trade calls and nursing new traders along the way, that you neglect your own account. Others may call into question why you do anything but trade when you can produce the unaudited equity curves like the ones you have attached. I can go on and on, but my coffee is finished. In any event, I hope you find some of the information in this post useful to your business.

Hey Guys! Look at the magic indicator that I have. I want you to wish that you had it. I want you to think that my magic indicator is what you need to be a successful trader. It boosts my ego when people try to figure out what I am doing. I want you to wish you were like me. I don't realize how utterly flawed my reasoning is. I don't reaalize that some of you know how flawed my reasoning is. I dare not show you how poorly the magic indicator performs on real time data I could have made a lot of money in the past with my magic indicator I have not learned how to trade yet, but somehow I am compelled to make you think that I am a better trader than you. My ego is very important to me. Poker players from a particular country make great traders. Almost poetic.

My Favorite rule: Be humble. You do not know what the market is going to do next.

I would guess that the positive balances will be slightly less than the cumulative negative balances unless someone gets on a nice streak. It will be interesting to see.

Thales, It might be interesting to track the losses of those in the race and dropping out of the race to see if a million gets lost before someone hits the million. Regards, MM

Dude, its just a flesh wound. Will you guys consider extending the projected end date?

Bummer. Re-focus. In poker its very similar to playing rags. You start to think that no matter what hand you are dealt, you'll win. Cards and the markets have a way of humbling you. This is getting interesting. It's a good opportunity for Sick to take advantage of the wounded Thales and move ahead of him. Just spectating. MM

Frank, I have been advising clients since 1988 and currently manage 7 figures in assets. Very high 7 figures. I regularly acquire new assets because other advisors have rendered poor advice. I own my own firm because I did not fit in with the conventional planning firms. Because of my success, I could easily expand, but at my age and current mind set, I am just not into the added aggravation that comes with expansion, and in fact hope to be winding down as soon as I can. I made no mention of short term securities. High yielding guaranteed investments are not short term. Low yielding guaranteed investments are short term. I can invest a client’s asset and get him a +- 20 year investment that yields him 8% a year guaranteed with 100% guaranteed principal. A little bit of thinking outside the box. Each of the portfolios you are describing, other than the gold bond mix, is far too risky for money that you are going to need for retirement. The only time that the latter two portfolios have performed properly is in the past. What happens if stocks remain flat? What happens if your short allocation in Europe recovers faster than US stocks creating a net loss where as the client would have been better off simply in US stocks? What do you tell a client whose portfolio of stocks is still down 25% since the beginning on 2008? Let’s hold on? Stay the course? Are you going to be able to guarantee them that by retirement they will have all their money back? What if what happened in the past doesn’t happen in the future? I can guarantee you that when you explain the risks and rewards to your clients; they are focused on the rewards and not the risks. I am sure you have faith in the models and tools your firm lets you use. I learned to manage money from my wealthiest client who is a venture capitalist. I manage a very tiny piece of his wealth. He only risks 5% of his assets. The rest is guaranteed. I ran with it and never looked back. I am not trying to say what you are doing is wrong. I assume you are completely within the guidelines of what your broker dealer allows. If you would like to continue this conversation, it is probably best if you pm me. Best of luck MM

Frank, I honed in on "retirement money." Retirement money is money that is going to provide you income during your retirement. Your "other" money is likely going to provide income in retirement too if you have any left. You do not want to introduce market risk into money that you are going to need in retirement. I did read your thread and my post addressed 95% of the money you are talking about. 95% of your money should be invested in the safest, highest yeilding investments you can find. Only 5% of it should be invested in the high risk investments. So, in essense your thread deals with what you should do with 5% of your other money. A good long term guess of what to do with that 5% is to invest it in a leveragerd portfolio that will benefit in a long term rise in commodities prices, Structure it so that it will never have an affect on the other 95% of your money. With global cash printing presses running, at some point hyper inflation has got to come back. If I am wrong, then your money is 100% safe plus interest. All the backtesting in the world isn't going to tell you what is going to happen in the future. Goldman made a great guess on Europe. I suggest you check Goldman's track record; specifically, how many of Goldman's recommendations didn't perform. But for the time being, kudos to Goldman. I am also assuming that when you say "other money" that you are referring to money other than your trading capital, as in money that you intend to invest for the long run. Some of the suggestions you have listed above are short term in nature which has the effect of moving the "other money" into your trading account. I know my post goes completely against the grain. MM

Frank, Why take a risk with your retirement money? American have bought into the bull shit that mutual funds have been pitching to the public so that they can make money while you take the risk. If you're going to take a risk with retirement money, then risk maybe 5% or so, but nothing more than that. Anyone who's 401(k) advisor had them in assets that went down in value during 2008 2009 should sue for damage and the advisor should go back to selling cars. Why would you want to take a chance on having less money than you are supposed to have in retirement? Really think about that. If your risk of having less money is "only" 1 in 10, is that way to high? Keep in mind that each of the 10 instances for this chance bet is a lifetime of retirement savings and not a quickly repeatable monte carlo simulation, It just so happens that the win/loss determination of your "lifetime retirement savings bet" occurs when you are tired or working or infirm, and less valuable to the workforce. From some of your other posts I see that you enjoy mulling though historical data. I challenge you to find a period of time within the last 40 years that you would not have been better off invested in treasuries than in the S&P. And if you need to, compare that to how often you would have been worse off and then decide if taking a risk is worth it. I take retirement investing very seriously. My 2 cents